Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

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Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  

Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

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Uhusiano wa muda mrefu wa kinyume kati ya dhahabu na mapato ya U.S. Treasury umevunjika kabisa mwaka 2025. Chuma hiki cha thamani kimepanda zaidi ya $4,000 kwa wakia, hata wakati mapato ya Treasury yamesalia thabiti na dola ya Marekani imedhoofika. Tofauti hii inaashiria mabadiliko makubwa katika mtazamo wa hatari duniani: wawekezaji hawachukulii tena hati fungani za serikali ya Marekani kama kinga ya kuaminika. Badala yake, dhahabu imekuwa mali pendwa ya kujikinga katika soko linalotikiswa na wasiwasi wa deni, hatari ya mfumuko wa bei, na sintofahamu ya kifedha.

Mambo muhimu ya kuzingatia

• Takriban $9.2 trilioni ya deni la soko la Marekani linakoma mwaka 2025, na kulazimisha Treasury kufadhili upya kiasi kikubwa cha hati fungani katikati ya mahitaji hafifu.
  
• Upungufu wa bajeti ya serikali unatarajiwa kufikia $1.9 trilioni, na kuchochea hofu ya deni lisilodhibitika na uzembe wa kifedha.
  
• Mfumuko wa bei unaoendelea na mshtuko wa ushuru umeongeza malipo ya muda mrefu kwenye hati fungani, na kufanya Treasury ziwe kama mali zenye hatari zaidi.
  
• Dola ya Marekani imeshuka hata wakati mapato yamebaki juu, ikionyesha kupungua kwa imani katika msimamo wa kifedha wa serikali.
  
• Dhahabu imepanda kwa 52% tangu mwanzo wa mwaka, ikivunja $4,000 huku benki kuu na wawekezaji wakihama kutoka hati fungani kwenda kwenye mali ngumu.
  

Soko la mapato ya Treasury chini ya shinikizo

Soko la U.S. Treasury limepitia moja ya miaka migumu zaidi katika miongo kadhaa. Wimbi la deni linalokoma - takriban $9.2 trilioni, nyingi ikiwa katika nusu ya kwanza ya mwaka - lililazimisha serikali kutoa hati mpya kwa kasi kubwa. Hamasa ya wawekezaji haikuweza kuendana, na kusababisha mauzo makubwa na kupanda kwa mapato, hasa kwenye hati fungani za muda mrefu zaidi.

Wakati huo huo, upungufu wa bajeti uliongezeka hadi $1.9 trilioni, na kuchochea hofu kwamba matumizi ya serikali yanayoongezeka yatazidisha tatizo la deni la muda mrefu. Wawekezaji walidai mapato ya juu zaidi ili kushikilia deni la Marekani, na hivyo kufanya Treasury zipate bei kama mali zenye hatari badala ya kinga.

Hali hii ilizidishwa na mshtuko wa kiufundi na sera - ikiwemo mabadiliko ya sera ya biashara ya Marekani na ushuru - ambayo yalipotosha bei na kuongeza malipo ya muda mrefu. Mchanganyiko huu wa usambazaji mkubwa, hofu ya mfumuko wa bei, na wasiwasi wa kifedha ulifanya Treasury ziwe na mtetemo mkubwa kuliko wakati wowote tangu 2020.

Dhahabu kama kinga yajaza pengo

Kwa kawaida, mauzo ya Treasury yangelitia nguvu dola ya Marekani na kushusha dhahabu. Lakini mwaka 2025 umebadilisha hali hiyo. Dola imeshuka sambamba na hati fungani, ikionyesha mgogoro wa imani katika uaminifu wa kifedha wa Marekani. Hii ilifungua mlango kwa dhahabu kuchukua nafasi ya kinga iliyokuwa ikishikiliwa na Treasury.

Wawekezaji, wasimamizi wa fedha, na benki kuu waliongeza kasi ya ununuzi wa dhahabu halisi na ETF, wakiona chuma hiki kama hifadhi ya thamani iliyo salama zaidi katika mazingira ambapo deni linaloungwa mkono na serikali linaonekana dhaifu. 

Matokeo yake yalikuwa ongezeko la kihistoria zaidi ya $4,000 kwa wakia, likiwa ni utendaji bora zaidi wa dhahabu katika takriban miongo mitano.

Dhahabu dhidi ya Mapato ya U.S. Treasury - Ulinganisho wa Utendaji 2025

Vyanzo: World Gold Council (Muhtasari wa Mwaka 2025), Reuters (8 Oktoba 2025), YCharts U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rate Series.

Takwimu zinaonyesha jinsi dhahabu na mapato sasa vinavyosonga pamoja. Ongezeko la 42% la dhahabu sambamba na mapato thabiti karibu 4.1% linathibitisha kuwa uhusiano wa jadi wa kinyume - ambapo dhahabu hupanda mapato yanaposhuka - umevunjika. Badala yake, mali zote sasa zinaitikia sintofahamu ya kifedha na kutokuaminiana kwa wawekezaji katika uthabiti wa sera.

Madhara ya kuvunjika kwa uhusiano wa dhahabu–Treasury

Kuvunjika kwa kinga ya dhahabu–Treasury kumeongeza mtetemo sokoni na kufanya utabiri kuwa mgumu zaidi. Mapato yamesalia juu, huku hisa zikishindwa kupata uthabiti katikati ya uhusiano wa mali mbalimbali ambao zamani ulisaidiana. Udhaifu wa dola umeongeza hofu ya mfumuko wa bei, na kuunda mzunguko unaoendelea ambao unaongeza mahitaji ya dhahabu.

Hata hivyo, wachambuzi wengine wanaona uwezekano wa mabadiliko baadaye mwaka 2025. Ikiwa uchumi utapungua na Federal Reserve itapunguza viwango vya riba, mapato yanaweza kushuka na kurejesha sehemu ya uhusiano wa zamani wa kinyume. Lakini kwa sasa, dhahabu na Treasury vinasonga pamoja – ishara kwamba msingi wa kinga ya jadi umevunjika.

Utabiri wa bei ya dhahabu 2025–2026

Wachambuzi bado hawajakubaliana kuhusu kinachofuata. Goldman Sachs inatabiri kuwa dhahabu inaweza kubaki karibu na viwango vya rekodi ikiwa hatari za kifedha zitaendelea, huku baadhi ya wataalamu wa mikakati wakiamini mapato ya chini kutokana na mdororo wa uchumi yanaweza kupunguza shinikizo kwenye hati fungani baadaye mwaka huu.

Hata hivyo, tatizo la msingi - utoaji mkubwa wa deni, mfumuko wa bei unaoendelea, na kupungua kwa imani katika usimamizi wa kifedha wa Marekani - linaashiria mabadiliko ya muda mrefu. Treasury hazionekani tena kama kinga safi; sasa ni sehemu ya mazingira ya hatari. Dhahabu, kwa upande mwingine, imekuwa nguzo ya uthabiti nyakati za sintofahamu.

Mtazamo wa kiufundi wa bei ya dhahabu

Wakati wa kuandika, shinikizo kubwa la ununuzi linaonekana kwenye chati ya kila siku. Hata hivyo, bei kufikia karibu na ukingo wa juu wa njia ya kupanda kunaweza kuashiria uwezekano wa marekebisho kuelekea ukingo wa chini wa njia hiyo kwenye $3,850. Hadithi hii ya marekebisho inaungwa mkono na RSI kuwa juu sana katika eneo la kununuliwa kupita kiasi. Kwa upande mwingine, MACD inaonyesha msukumo mkubwa wa wanunuzi.  Hatua thabiti zaidi ya kuvuka viwango vya sasa inaweza kuwapa wanunuzi ishara ya kulenga $4,100. 

Madhara ya uwekezaji wa dhahabu

Kwa wafanyabiashara na wasimamizi wa mali, mazingira ya 2025 yanaashiria uhalisia mpya wa kinga.
Kwa muda mfupi, dhahabu huenda ikaendelea kubaki juu ya $4,000, ikichangiwa na mahitaji endelevu ya benki kuu na mtiririko wa kinga. Ikiwa mdororo wa uchumi utasababisha kupunguzwa kwa viwango vya riba, bei za hati fungani zinaweza kuimarika – lakini dhahabu itaendelea kuwa na mvuto wa kimkakati kama kinga dhidi ya hatari za sera na mikopo.

Mikakati ya muda wa kati inapaswa kupendelea uwekezaji uliotawanyika kwenye dhahabu kupitia Deriv MT5 , ambapo wafanyabiashara wanaweza kutumia multipliers kudhibiti leverage katika mazingira yenye mtetemo. Wakati huo huo, kutumia zana kama kikokotoo cha biashara cha Deriv kunaweza kusaidia kudumisha nidhamu ya usimamizi wa hatari kadri mtetemo wa dhahabu unavyoongezeka.

Mikakati ya biashara ya dhahabu kwenye majukwaa ya Deriv

Wafanyabiashara kwenye Deriv wanaweza kufikia soko la dhahabu kupitia majukwaa mbalimbali yaliyoundwa kukidhi mitindo na malengo tofauti ya biashara.

Majukwaa yetu yanatoa fursa ya kufanya biashara ya dhahabu ya papo kwa papo (XAU/USD) kwa tofauti ndogo za bei kuanzia 0.3 pips, ukwasi mkubwa, na chaguzi za leverage hadi 1:1000, kutegemea aina ya akaunti na mamlaka. Jukwaa linaunga mkono aina nyingi za maagizo, zana za kuchora chati za hali ya juu, na viashiria vilivyojumuishwa kwa uchambuzi wa kiufundi.

Wafanyabiashara wanaotafuta kufaidika na mabadiliko ya bei ya dhahabu kwa hatari iliyodhibitiwa wanaweza kutumia Deriv Multipliers, ambazo huruhusu ushiriki wenye leverage na hasara ya juu iliyowekwa. Bidhaa hii inawawezesha wateja kushiriki katika mtetemo wa muda mfupi wa dhahabu bila mahitaji ya margin ya jadi.

Ili kusaidia maandalizi ya biashara na ufuatiliaji wa nafasi, kikokotoo cha biashara cha Deriv huwasaidia watumiaji kubaini ukubwa wa mkataba, mahitaji ya margin, na thamani ya pip kwa dhahabu na vyombo vingine. Zana za ziada zinazopatikana kwenye majukwaa yote ni pamoja na kazi za stop-loss na take-profit, kuruhusu usimamizi sahihi wa maagizo na mgao wa mtaji.

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Ndio - Msimamo wa kifedha wa upanuzi wa Japan na viwango vya chini sana vya riba vinaweza kufufua biashara ya kubeba ulimwengu, kulingana na wachambuzi. Pamoja na yen kushuka hadi chini za miezi saba na USD/JPY na kuzuka zaidi ya 151, wafanyabiashara wanaikopa yen tena kufuata mazao ya juu mali. Tokyo sasa inakabiliwa na shinikizo la kuongezeka la kutetea sarafu yake wakati masoko yanazama 155 kama hatua inayofuata Isipokuwa Benki ya Japani (BoJ) itageuka sera kali au kuingilia kati moja kwa moja, biashara zilizofadhiliwa na yen zinaweza kuendelea kuimarisha hamu ya hatari ya ulimwengu hadi 2025.

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Vidokezo muhimu

• USD/JPY inafika kiwango cha juu cha miezi saba juu ya 151.00 wakati wa udhaifu mpya wa yen na hisia za hatari za ulimwengu.
  
  
• Sera za kuchochea za Sanae Takaichi huongeza matarajio ya matumizi makubwa ya fedha, na kuchelewesha kuimarisha BoJ.
  
  
• Shughuli za biashara zinaendelea tena, huku wawekezaji hukopa yen kwa bei nafuu kuwekeza katika mali yenye mavuno ya juu nje ya nchi.
  
  
• Tokyo inaonya juu ya ugonjwa mkubwa, lakini masoko yanaendelea kupima kizingiti cha uingili
  
  
• USD/JPY inaweza kujaribu 155, ikizuia mabadiliko makali ya BoJ au uingiliaji wa serikali uratibiwa.
  
  

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Kichocheo cha fedha ya Japan 2025 na slaidi ya yen

Mabadiliko ya kisiasa ya Japan yanasababisha shinikizo mapya ya chini kwenye yen. Kufuatia uchaguzi wa Sanae Takaichi kama kiongozi mpya wa Chama cha Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), wawekezaji wanatarajia serikali yake kuongeza matumizi ya umma ili kusaidia ukuaji.

Ingawa mkakati huu unaweza kuchochea uchumi, huongeza wasiwasi wa uendelevu wa fedha na huchanganya juhudi za kudhibiti mfumuko wa bei za BoJ. Mfumuko wa bei wa Japan ulikuwa 2.7% mnamo Agosti, bado juu ya lengo la 2%, ikipendekeza sera inapaswa kukaa ngumu.

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Kiwango cha mfumuko wa bei wa Japan

Walakini, matarajio yanasonga katika mwelekeo tofauti: masoko sasa inaona nafasi ya 26% tu ya kuongezeka kwa kiwango cha BoJ ifikapo Oktoba 30, chini kutoka 60% kabla ya ushindi wa Takaichi.

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Viwango vya riba vya Benki ya Japani

Mabadiliko haya katika mtazamo umefanya uwekezaji unaoainishwa na yeni kuwa ya kuvutia na kuchochea mtaji katika masoko yenye mapenzi ya juu, na kuharakisha kushuka kwa sarafu.

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Yen ya Japani hubeba biashara isiyo na lengo kama Masoko ya Takaichi Jolts

Biashara ya kubeba imerudi katikati ya tahadhari ya soko. Pamoja na viwango vya Japani vilivyokuwa karibu na sifuri, wafanyabiashara wanakopa yen kununua mali katika uchumi wenye mavuno ya juu - kama vile Marekani au Australia.

Mkakati huu unastawi wakati ulimwenguni hatari hamu ni kubwa, na mkusanyiko wa 2025 katika hisa umetoa nyuma kamili. Nasdaq, S&P 500, na Nikkei 225 ya Japani zote zilifikia viwango vipya vya rekodi hivi karibuni, ikionyesha ujasiri mpana wa wawekezaji. Matumaini hayo hayo yamepunguza mahitaji salama ya yen, na kuimarisha jukumu lake kama sarafu ya ufadhili ulimwenguni.

Kinaonyesha nguvu katikati ya miaka ya 2000 hubeba ukubwa wa biashara, wakati udhaifu wa yen ulichochea uwekezaji wa uvumi ulimwenguni kote - hadi mabadiliko ya ghafla ya sera ya BoJ yalibadilisha Kwa sasa, hata hivyo, msimamo mkubwa wa fedha wa Japan na upanuzi wa fedha unaweka mkakati huo hai.

Ufahamu wa biashara: Biashara za kubeba zina faida wakati mabadiliko ni ya chini na kuenea ya kiwango cha riba ni pana - lakini zinaweza kupumzika kwa vurugu wakati hisia zinabadilika. Jifunze zaidi kuhusu biashara katika masoko yenye machafuko katika yetu mwongozo wa mabadiliko ya soko.

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Shida ya Tokyo: kuingilia kati au kuvumilia slaidi

Wizara ya Fedha ya Japani imekamatwa katika kifungo cha kawaida. Pamoja na USD/JPY sasa juu ya 151, wafanyabiashara wanatazama ishara za uingiliaji wa serikali - zilizosababishwa kihistoria wakati wawili hao wanapokaribia 150-152.

Waziri wa Fedha Katsunobu Kato amesisitiza utayari wa Japan kukabiliana na “mabadiliko mengi,” lakini soko linabaki kuwa na shaka. Uingiliaji ni wa gharama kubwa na ya muda mfupi isipokuwa inaungwa mkono na usan Pamoja na utawala wa Takaichi unaelekea upanuzi wa fedha, maonyo ya maneno peke yake hayawezekani kuzuia uuzaji wa yen.

Hiyo inaacha Tokyo na chaguzi mbili: kuingilia kati moja kwa moja, kuhatarisha mafanikio ndogo, au kusubiri na matumaini soko litatuliwa - wito wa hatari kwani nafasi ya uvumi unaelekea sana kuelekea USD/JPY.

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Sababu ya Marekani: dola yenye uthabiti licha ya upepo

Dola ya Marekani inabaki imara hata kati ya changamoto za ndani. Licha ya kufungwa kwa serikali unaendelea na matarajio Hifadhi ya Shirikish kupunguzwa kwa kiwango - huku masoko ina bei ya uwezekano wa 95% wa kupunguzwa kwa bps 25 mnamo Oktoba na 84% mnamo Desemba - dola inaendelea kufaidika na mahitaji ya hifadhi salama.

Kielelezo cha DXY kinashikilia juu ya 98, ikionyesha maoni ya soko kwamba mali ya Marekani zinabaki thabiti zaidi kuliko ya Japan.

Matokeo: hata dola yenye laini inaonekana kuwa imara ikilinganishwa na yen, ikiweka USD/JPY inasaidiwa vizuri.

Mpaka Fed inaharakisha kupunguza au BoJ inazimarisha, pengo la mavuno kati ya uchumi hizo miwili litaendelea kuimarisha udhaifu wa yen.

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Ni nini kinaweza kubadilisha mwenendo?

Vichocheo kadhaa vinaweza kubadilisha au kupunguza kushuka kwa yen:

1. Msingi wa sera ya BoJ: Taarifa ya kawaida au kuongezeka kwa kiwango cha kushangaza kunaweza kushtuka masoko na kuinua yen.
   
   
2. Uingiliaji uratibiwa: Hatua ya pamoja na Wizara ya Fedha na BoJ zinaweza kutoa kurudi kali zaidi, ya kudumu zaidi.
   
   
3. Tukio la hatari ya kimataifa: Marekebisho makubwa ya usawa au kuongezeka kwa kijiografia unaweza kurejesha mahitaji salama ya hifadhi.
   
   
4. Kupunguza kasi ya viwango vya Marekani: Fed yenye nguvu inaweza kupunguza tofauti za mavuno na kuzuia kasi ya USD/JPY.
   
   

Bila moja ya vichocheo hivi, hata hivyo, udhaifu wa yen unaonekana kuendelea.

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Ufahamu wa kiufundi wa USD JPY: Macho ya USD/JPY 155

Wakati wa kuandika, shinikizo la ununuzi linaonekana kwenye chati ya kila siku, huku jozi hizo katika hali ya ugunduzi wa bei karibu 152.36. Takwimu za kiasi inaonyesha utawala wa mnunuzi, na wauzaji bado hawajaonyesha imani ya kutosha kupinga mwenendo huo

Ikiwa shinikizo la uuzaji yanaongezeka, kurudi kwa yen unaweza kusababisha kurudi kwa viwango vya usaidizi vya 147.10 na 146.24. Walakini, ikiwa kasi ya kupanda inaendelea, USD/JPY inaweza kupanua mkutano wake hadi 155, ikiashiria kiwango kipya cha juu cha 2025.

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Mwelekeo wa kiufundi: Mwelekeo unabaki kuwa ya kupanda, lakini imeongezeka tete karibu na viwango vya uingiliaji inamaanisha wafanyabi ukubwa wa nafasi, matumizi ya mpaka, na kujiinua kufungua kwa uangalifu.

Wafanyabiashara wanaweza kufuatilia viwango hivi vya USD/JPY Deriv MT5 zana za hali ya juu za chati kwa muda sahihi wa kuingia na kuondoka.

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Athari za Uwekezaji wa Y

Kwa wafanyabiashara, utofauti wa sera bado ni mada muhimu inayoendesha USD/JPY.

• Mikakati ya muda mfu: Kununua kwa kushuka unaweza kubaki mzuri kwa muda mrefu 151 wanashikilia kama msaada, lakini wafanyabiashara wanapaswa kufuatilia maneno ya Tokyo kwa karibu.
  
  
• Nafasi ya muda wa kati: Kudumisha kubadilika inaweza kuwa nzuri - uingiliaji au mshangao wa sera kunaweza kusababisha mabadiliko makali.
  
  
• Athari za soko mbalimbali: Kurudi kwa biashara ya kubeba inaenea zaidi ya FX, ikiweza kuongeza usawa wa kimataifa na mtiririko wa dhamana unaofadhiliwa na ukopa kwa bei nafuu

Forex yetu kikokotoo cha biashara inaweza kusaidia kuamua ukubwa bora wa nafasi, mahitaji ya upande, na faida zinazowezekana kwa mikakati ya biashara ya kubeba.

Isipokuwa Japan inazimarisha sera hivi karibuni, 2025 inaweza kuashiria kurudi kamili kwa biashara ya kubeba ulimwengu - na kipindi cha muda mrefu cha udhaifu wa yen.

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Dhahabu inafika kwenye alama ya $4,000, biashara karibu $3,970 kwa aunsi - kiwango chake cha juu katika historia. Mkutano huo, uliongezeka zaidi ya 50% mwaka hadi sasa, inaonyesha mwenendo wa kina wa ulimwengu: wawekezaji wanaondoka kutoka kwa pesa za karatasi na kuelekea thamani inayoonekana. Pamoja na ununuzi wa benki kuu, uingizaji wa ETF, na msukumo wazi wa kupunguza dola, dhahabu imekuwa “kizuizi cha uaminifu” cha mwisho mnamo 2025.

Vidokezo muhimu

• Dhahabu imeongezeka kwa 50% YTD, ikijaribu $3,970 USD/oz, mwisho wake wenye nguvu kabisa.
• Ununuzi wa Benki ya Kati: ~ tani 80 kwa mwezi (Baraza la Dhahabu la Dunia, 2025).
• Uingizaji wa ETF: tani +200 katika H1 2025 (Bloomberg Financial LP).
• Uwezekano wa kupunguza kiwango cha Fed: 94.6% (CME FedWatch Tool).
• Lengo la UBS: $4,200; Goldman Sachs: $4,900 ifikapo 2026.
• Mada ya Macro: Kupunguza dola na kupungua kwa uaminifu katika pesa za fiat.

Mkutano wa rekodi ya dhahabu - nini kinaiendesha

Mkutano wa dhahabu wa 2025 ilianza mnamo Machi, wakati bei ilivunja alama ya $3,000, kisha $3,500 mnamo Aprili, na $3,800 ifikapo Septemba. Kila mvuko umesaidiwa na uingizaji thabiti wa ETF na mahitaji ya benki kuu, ambayo pamoja yanaunda shinikizo la ununuzi wa kimuundo.

Takwimu za Bloomberg zinaonyesha ETF zinazoungwa mkono wa dhahabu zilizopanuliwa kwa tani 200 katika nusu ya kwanza ya 2025 - kuruka kubwa zaidi tangu 2020. Wafanyabiashara pia waliongeza mwangilio wa kupanda kwa ETF ya Shares za Dhahabu ya SPDR, na kuimarisha kasi ya taasisi.

Wakati huo huo, viwango vya chini vya riba vimefanya dhahabu kuvutia zaidi ikilinganishwa na mali zinazozoa mavuno Kupunguza bps 25 kwa Shirikisho la Marekani mnamo Septemba, na matarajio ya mwingine mnamo Oktoba, yanaendelea kudhoofisha dola na mahitaji ya mafuta ya mali salama za hifadhi.

Ununuzi wa dhahabu ya benki kuu: Athari za kupunguza dola kwa dhahabu

Takwimu za Baraza la Dhahabu Duniani (WGC) zinaonyesha benki kuu kote Asia, Mashariki ya Kati, na Amerika ya Kusini zinanunua dhahabu kwa kasi ya rekodi - wastani wa tani 80 kwa mwezi mwaka huu.

Goldman Sachs inatabiri tani 70-80 kwa mwezi ya mahitaji ya benki kuu kuendelea hadi 2026, ikiashiria usawazishaji wa muda mrefu wa akiba mbali na dola ya Marekani.

Dhahabu kama asilimia ya jumla ya hifadhi katika benki kuu zilizochaguliwa

Mabadiliko haya ni sehemu ya mwenendo mpana wa kupungua kwa dola, wakati uchumi unaoibuka zinazuia dhidi ya kifedha tete na mshtuko wa kijiografia. Wawekezaji wa taasisi za Magharibi wanafuata hivyo, wakitumia dhahabu kama nanga ya utulivu katikati ya uhakika

JP Morgan anaelezea kuwa CBs hazikuwa pekee zinazoongeza sehemu yao ya umiliki wa dhahabu katika miaka michache iliyopita. Katika masoko ya dhahabu ya kifedha, nafasi ya baadaye ya wawekezaji unabaki muda mrefu, na matarajio kwamba bei itaongezeka kwa thamani katika siku zijazo. Mustaajali wa kibiashara na nafasi ndefu za chaguo katika dhahabu ya COMEX - soko la msingi la baadaye na chaguzi la biashara ya metali - yalifikia kiwango kipya cha juu mnamo 2024 kwa hali halisi.

Nyuma ya makubwa: uaminifu chini ya shinikizo

Kufungwa kwa serikali ya Marekani mnamo Septemba ulisitisha data rasmi ya kiuchumi, na kulazimisha masoko kutegemea makadirio ya kibin Habari za ABC inaripoti kuwa usumbufu huu unaweza kupunguza hadi asilimia 2.4 kutoka kwa Pato la Taifa la Q4 ikiwa ni muda mrefu.

Wakati wa kuzuia data, Hifadhi ya Shirikisho inakabiliwa na uhakika mkubwa, ikiendesha masoko kupendeza mali thabiti kama dhahabu.

Katika Ulaya na Asia, mavuno ya juu ya dhamana, shida za kifedha, na ugonjwa wa kisiasa zimeimarisha zaidi hadithi kwamba dhahabu sio tu kizuizi cha mfumuko wa bei - ni kizuizi cha uaminifu.

Je! $4,000 ni dari au kituo cha ukaguzi tu?

Wachambuzi wamegawanyika.

• UBS inatabiri $4,200 mwishoni mwa mwaka.
• Goldman Sachs iliongeza lengo lake la 2026 hadi $4,900.

Takwimu za kiufundi kutoka MT5 Derive inaonyesha kiasi kikubwa cha ununuzi, ingawa ujumuishaji wa muda wa karibu $3,970—$4,000 unawezekana. Ikiwa wanunuzi wanashikilia eneo hili, kuvunjika unaweza kusukuma dhahabu kuelekea $4,200+. Viwango vya usaidizi vinabaki imara kwa $3,630 na $3,310.

Viwango vya kiufundi vya dhahabu (chati ya kila siku ya Deriv MT5)

Kutoka biashara ya hofu hadi biashara ya imani

Kuongezeka kwa dhahabu ya 2025 sio athari kwa hofu - ni bei tena ya imani. Kama mkakati mmoja alivyosema: “Hii sio hatua ya mgogoro. Ni soko linakubali kwamba ahadi za karatasi zina mipaka.”

Mfumuko wa bei unaoendelea, upungufu unaokua, na utulivu wa kijiografia umedhoofisha imani katika mifumo ya fiat Dhahabu imekuwa kiwango kipya cha uaminifu wa kifedha, ikihudumia kama hifadhi salama na mali ya hifadhi ya kimkakati.

Jinsi ya kufanya biashara ya dhahabu kwenye Deriv

Hatua ya 1: Chagua jukwaa lako

Chagua jukwaa la Deriv linalofaa mtindo wako wa biashara:

• MT5 Derive - kwa ufichuzi wa kulingana na CFD na chati za hali ya juu na zana za uchambuzi wa kitaalam.
• Deriv Trader - kwa biashara ya wakati uliowekwa na kiolesura rahisi, cha kueleweka.
• Deriv cTrader - kwa ukwasi wa kina, utekelezaji wa kasi, na usimamizi wa agizo la kiwango cha kitaaluma.

Hatua ya 2: Chagua aina yako ya chombo

Chagua bidhaa inayofanana na malengo yako ya biashara:

• CFDs (Mikataba ya Tofauti) - biashara zinazoongezeka au kushuka bei ya dhahabu na faida.
• Viongezaji - udhibiti nafasi kubwa na mtaji mdogo, wakati huku kupunguza hasara.
• Mikataba ya wakati uliowekwa - unadhani juu ya harakati za bei ya muda mfupi na malipo zilizoainishwa mapema.

Hatua ya 3: Tumia usimamizi wa hatari

Kulinda mtaji wako kabla ya kuingia biashara:

• Weka maagizo ya kuzuia hasara na kuchukua faida.
• Hesabu saizi ya nafasi kulingana na uvumilivu wako wa hatari kwa kutumia Deriv kikokotoo cha biashara.
• Mazoezi mikakati katika hali ya onyesho kabla ya kuanza moja kwa moja.
  

Hatua ya 4: Fanya biashara yako

Mara baada ya kuandaa, weka biashara yako ya dhahabu kwenye jukwaa la Deriv ulichochagua. Fuatilia nafasi za wazi, kagua matumizi ya upande, na kurekebisha maagizo wakati hatua ya bei inavyoendel

Ufahamu wa kiufundi wa dhahabu: Dhahabu inaelekea wapi?

Goldman Sachs inatarajia kwamba dhahabu inaweza kufikia $4,000 kwa aunsi katikati ya 2026 na $4,900 ifikapo Desemba 2026.

JP Morgan, kwa upande mwingine, anatarajia dhahabu kuwa wastani wa $3,675 kwa aunsi katika Q4 2025, kukaribia $4,000 ifikapo Q2 2026, ikiendeshwa sana na ununuzi wa benki kuu na uhakika endelevu wa soko. Hasa, wachambuzi wa kuongezeka wanatabiri bei zinazowezekana hadi $10,000 kwa aunsi ifikapo 2030 ikiwa mwenendo wa sasa unaendelea, ingawa hali hii inategemea udhaifu unaoendelea wa kiuchumi ulimwenguni

Viashiria vingine vya kiufundi vinaonyesha dhahabu iko katika eneo la “kununuliwa sana”, na kufanya marekebisho ya bei ya muda mfupi iwezekane kabla Viwango muhimu vya usaidizi sasa viko juu ya $3,800, na upinzani karibu $3,900 na $4,000, na hatari ya kupungua ikiwa mahitaji ya benki kuu hupungua au mvutano wa kijiografia unapungua.