Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

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Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  

Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

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La relación inversa de larga data entre el oro y los rendimientos del Treasury de EE. UU. se ha roto efectivamente en 2025. El metal precioso ha superado los $4,000 por onza, incluso cuando los rendimientos del Treasury se han estabilizado y el dólar estadounidense se ha debilitado. Esta divergencia señala un cambio más profundo en el sentimiento de riesgo global: los inversores ya no consideran los bonos del gobierno de EE. UU. como una cobertura confiable. En su lugar, el oro se ha convertido en el activo refugio preferido en un mercado sacudido por preocupaciones sobre la deuda, el riesgo de inflación y la incertidumbre fiscal.

Puntos clave

• Alrededor de 9,2 billones de dólares en deuda negociable de EE. UU. vence en 2025, lo que obliga al Treasury a refinanciar cantidades récord de bonos en medio de una débil demanda.
  
• Se proyecta que el déficit federal alcance los 1,9 billones de dólares, alimentando temores de una deuda insostenible y complacencia fiscal.
  
• La inflación persistente y los shocks relacionados con aranceles han elevado la prima de plazo en los bonos a largo plazo, haciendo que los Treasuries se comporten más como activos de riesgo.
  
• El dólar estadounidense ha caído incluso cuando los rendimientos se mantuvieron altos, reflejando la pérdida de confianza en la posición fiscal del gobierno.
  
• El oro ha subido un 52% en lo que va del año, superando los $4,000 a medida que los bancos centrales e inversores pasan de bonos a activos duros.
  

El mercado de rendimientos del Treasury bajo presión

El mercado del Treasury de EE. UU. ha soportado uno de sus años más difíciles en décadas. Una ola de deuda que vence —aproximadamente 9,2 billones de dólares, gran parte concentrada en la primera mitad del año— obligó al gobierno a emitir nuevos valores a un ritmo acelerado. El apetito de los inversores no pudo seguir el ritmo, lo que llevó a una venta generalizada y al aumento de los rendimientos, especialmente en los vencimientos a más largo plazo.

Al mismo tiempo, el déficit fiscal se disparó a 1,9 billones de dólares, alimentando temores de que el aumento del gasto público empeoraría la sostenibilidad de la deuda a largo plazo. Los inversores exigieron mayores rendimientos para mantener la deuda de EE. UU., revalorizando efectivamente los Treasuries como activos más riesgosos en lugar de defensivos.

La situación se agravó por shocks técnicos y de política —incluidos cambios en la política comercial de EE. UU. y modificaciones arancelarias— que distorsionaron los precios y elevaron la prima de plazo. Esta combinación de exceso de oferta, ansiedad inflacionaria y preocupación fiscal hizo que los Treasuries fueran más volátiles que en cualquier momento desde 2020.

El oro como refugio llena el vacío

Normalmente, una venta masiva de Treasuries fortalecería el dólar estadounidense y presionaría al oro. Pero 2025 ha cambiado ese manual. El dólar cayó junto con los bonos, exponiendo una crisis de confianza en la credibilidad fiscal de EE. UU. Eso abrió la puerta para que el oro asumiera el papel defensivo que antes tenían los Treasuries.

Inversores, gestores de fondos y bancos centrales aceleraron las compras de oro físico y ETFs, viendo el metal como una reserva de valor más confiable en un entorno donde la deuda respaldada por el gobierno parecía frágil. 

El resultado fue un rally histórico por encima de los $4,000 por onza, marcando el mejor desempeño del oro en casi cinco décadas.

Oro vs rendimientos del Treasury de EE. UU. - Comparación de desempeño 2025

Fuentes: World Gold Council (Perspectiva de mitad de año 2025), Reuters (8 de octubre de 2025), YCharts U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rate Series.

Los datos subrayan cómo el oro y los rendimientos ahora se mueven al unísono. El rally del 42% del oro junto a rendimientos estables en torno al 4,1% confirma que la correlación inversa tradicional —donde el oro sube cuando los rendimientos caen— se ha colapsado. En cambio, ambos activos ahora responden a la incertidumbre fiscal y la desconfianza de los inversores en la estabilidad de las políticas.

Consecuencias de la ruptura de la correlación oro–Treasury

La ruptura de la cobertura oro–Treasury ha hecho que los mercados sean más volátiles y menos predecibles. Los rendimientos se han mantenido elevados, mientras que las acciones han luchado por encontrar estabilidad en medio de correlaciones entre activos que antes se compensaban entre sí. La debilidad del dólar ha amplificado las preocupaciones inflacionarias, creando un círculo de retroalimentación que apoya aún más la demanda de oro.

Algunos analistas, sin embargo, ven potencial para una reversión más adelante en 2025. Si la economía se desacelera y la Federal Reserve recorta las tasas de interés, los rendimientos podrían caer y restaurar parcialmente la antigua relación inversa. Pero por ahora, el oro y los Treasuries se mueven juntos, una señal de que la base estructural de la cobertura clásica se ha resquebrajado.

Pronóstico del precio del oro 2025–2026

Los analistas siguen divididos sobre lo que viene después. Goldman Sachs proyecta que el oro podría mantenerse cerca de niveles récord si persisten los riesgos fiscales, mientras que algunos estrategas creen que rendimientos más bajos por una posible recesión podrían aliviar la presión sobre los bonos más adelante en el año.

Sin embargo, el problema subyacente —alta emisión de deuda, inflación persistente y disminución de la confianza en la gestión fiscal de EE. UU.— apunta a un reequilibrio a largo plazo. Los Treasuries ya no se consideran un activo refugio puro; ahora forman parte del entorno de riesgo. El oro, por su parte, se ha convertido en el ancla de la estabilidad en tiempos inciertos.

Perspectivas técnicas del precio del oro

Al momento de escribir, se observa una fuerte presión compradora en el gráfico diario. Sin embargo, los precios acercándose al límite superior del canal ascendente podrían sugerir un posible retroceso hacia el límite inferior del canal en $3,850. Esta narrativa de retroceso está respaldada por el RSI que se encuentra profundamente en territorio de sobrecompra. Por otro lado, el MACD muestra un fuerte impulso alcista.  Un movimiento decisivo más allá de los niveles actuales podría dar luz verde a los compradores para apuntar a $4,100. 

Implicaciones de inversión en oro

Para los traders y gestores de activos, el panorama de 2025 señala una nueva realidad de cobertura.
A corto plazo, es probable que el oro consolide por encima de $4,000, respaldado por la demanda sostenida de los bancos centrales y los flujos de refugio. Si una recesión provoca recortes de tasas, los precios de los bonos podrían recuperarse, pero el oro probablemente mantendrá su atractivo estratégico como protección frente al riesgo de política y crédito.

El posicionamiento a medio plazo debería favorecer la exposición diversificada al oro en Deriv MT5, donde los traders pueden usar multiplicadores para gestionar la apalancamiento en condiciones volátiles. Mientras tanto, el uso de herramientas como la calculadora de trading de Deriv puede ayudar a mantener una gestión disciplinada del riesgo a medida que aumenta la volatilidad del oro.

Estrategias de trading para oro en plataformas Deriv

Los traders en Deriv pueden acceder al mercado del oro a través de una variedad de plataformas diseñadas para adaptarse a diferentes estilos y objetivos de trading.

Nuestras plataformas ofrecen acceso a oro spot (XAU/USD) con spreads competitivos desde 0.3 pips, liquidez profunda y opciones de apalancamiento de hasta 1:1000, dependiendo del tipo de cuenta y la jurisdicción. La plataforma admite múltiples tipos de órdenes, herramientas avanzadas de gráficos e indicadores integrados para análisis técnico.

Los traders que buscan exposición a los movimientos del precio del oro con riesgo controlado pueden usar Deriv Multipliers, que permiten participación apalancada con una pérdida máxima fija. Este producto permite a los clientes participar en la volatilidad a corto plazo del oro sin los requisitos tradicionales de margen.

Para ayudar en la preparación de operaciones y el monitoreo de posiciones, las calculadoras de trading de Deriv ayudan a los usuarios a determinar el tamaño del contrato, los requisitos de margen y el valor del pip para el oro y otros instrumentos. Herramientas adicionales disponibles en todas las plataformas incluyen funciones de stop-loss y take-profit, permitiendo una gestión precisa de órdenes y asignación de capital.

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Sí, la política fiscal expansiva de Japón y sus tasas de interés ultrabajas podrían reactivar el carry trade mundial, según los analistas. Con el yen cayendo a mínimos de siete meses y el USD/JPY con escape por encima de 151, los operadores vuelven a pedir prestado el yen para perseguir rentabilidades más altas bienes. Tokio se enfrenta ahora a una presión creciente para defender su moneda, ya que los mercados consideran el 155 como el próximo hito. A menos que el Banco de Japón (BoJ) adopte una política más restrictiva o intervenga directamente, las operaciones financiadas con yenes podrían seguir alimentando el apetito mundial por el riesgo hasta 2025.

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Conclusiones clave

• El USD/JPY alcanza un máximo de siete meses por encima de los 151,00 en medio de una renovada debilidad del yen y un sentimiento global de riesgo.
  
  
• Las políticas favorables al estímulo de Sanae Takaichi aumentan las expectativas de un gasto fiscal a gran escala, lo que retrasa el endurecimiento del BoJ.
  
  
• La actividad de carry trade resurge, ya que los inversores piden prestado yenes a bajo precio para invertir en activos de mayor rendimiento en el extranjero.
  
  
• Tokio advierte de una volatilidad excesiva, pero los mercados siguen poniendo a prueba el umbral de intervención de Japón.
  
  
• El par USD/JPY podría poner a prueba el 155, a menos que se produzca un cambio brusco en el Banco de Japón o una intervención gubernamental coordinada.
  
  

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El estímulo fiscal de Japón en 2025 y la caída del yen

El cambio político de Japón está ejerciendo una nueva presión a la baja sobre el yen. Tras la elección de Sanae Takaichi como nueva líder del Partido Liberal Democrático (PLD), los inversores esperan que su gobierno aumente el gasto público para apoyar el crecimiento.

Si bien esta estrategia podría estimular la economía, plantea problemas de sostenibilidad fiscal y complica los esfuerzos del Banco de Japón para controlar la inflación. La inflación de Japón se situó en el 2,7% en agosto, aún por encima del objetivo del 2%, lo que sugiere que la política debería mantenerse ajustada.

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Tasa de inflación de Japón

Sin embargo, las expectativas van en la dirección opuesta: los mercados ahora solo ven un 26% de probabilidades de que el BoJ suba los tipos antes del 30 de octubre, frente al 60% anterior a la victoria de Takaichi.

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Tasas de interés del Banco de Japón

Este cambio de perspectiva ha hecho que las inversiones denominadas en yenes sean menos atractivas y ha impulsado las salidas de capital hacia los mercados de mayor rendimiento, lo que ha acelerado la caída de la moneda.

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El yen japonés centra la atención en las operaciones mientras Takaichi sacude los mercados

El carry trade vuelve a estar en el centro de la atención del mercado. Con los tipos japoneses anclados cerca de cero, los operadores están tomando yenes en préstamo para comprar activos en economías con rendimientos más altos, como EE. UU. o Australia.

Esta estrategia florece cuando es global riesgo el apetito es alto y el repunte de la renta variable de 2025 ha proporcionado el telón de fondo perfecto. El Nasdaq, el S&P 500 y el Nikkei 225 de Japón alcanzaron recientemente nuevos máximos históricos, lo que refleja la amplia confianza de los inversores. Ese mismo optimismo ha erosionado la demanda del yen, que es un refugio seguro, reforzando su papel como la divisa de financiación más importante del mundo.

La dinámica refleja el auge del carry trade de mediados de la década de 2000, cuando la debilidad del yen impulsó la inversión especulativa en todo el mundo, hasta que un repentino cambio de política del Banco de Japón invirtió la tendencia. Sin embargo, por ahora, la política monetaria acomodaticia y la expansión fiscal de Japón mantienen viva la estrategia.

Perspectiva bursátil: las operaciones carry son rentables cuando la volatilidad es baja y los diferenciales de los tipos de interés son amplios, pero pueden relajarse violentamente cuando la confianza cambia. Obtenga más información sobre cómo operar en mercados turbulentos en nuestro guía sobre la volatilidad del mercado.

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El dilema de Tokio: intervenir o tolerar la caída

El Ministerio de Finanzas de Japón está atrapado en un aprieto conocido. Con el par USD/JPY ahora por encima de los 151, los operadores están atentos a las señales de una intervención gubernamental, que históricamente se ha activado cuando el par se acerca a los 150-152.

El ministro de Finanzas, Katsunobu Kato, ha reiterado la disposición de Japón a contrarrestar la «volatilidad excesiva», pero el mercado sigue siendo escéptico. Las intervenciones son costosas y de corta duración a menos que estén respaldadas por una alineación de la política monetaria. Dado que la administración de Takaichi se inclina por la expansión fiscal, es poco probable que las advertencias verbales por sí solas detengan la venta del yen.

Esto deja a Tokio con dos opciones: intervenir directamente, con el riesgo de tener un éxito limitado, o esperar y esperar a que el mercado se estabilice, una decisión arriesgada, ya que el posicionamiento especulativo se inclina fuertemente hacia los largos del USD/JPY.

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El factor estadounidense: un dólar resiliente a pesar de los obstáculos

El dólar estadounidense se mantiene firme incluso en medio de los desafíos nacionales. A pesar del cierre continuo del gobierno y de las expectativas de Reserva Federal recortes de tipos (dado que los mercados valoran una probabilidad del 95% de una reducción de 25 puntos básicos en octubre y del 84% en diciembre), el dólar sigue beneficiándose de una demanda de refugio seguro.

El índice DXY se mantiene por encima de 98, lo que refleja la opinión del mercado de que los activos estadounidenses se mantienen más estables que los de Japón.

El resultado: incluso un dólar que se debilita parece fuerte en relación con el yen, lo que mantiene al USD/JPY con un buen respaldo.

Hasta que Reserva Federal acelera la flexibilización o el Banco de Japón se endurece, la brecha de tipos entre las dos economías seguirá anclando la debilidad del yen.

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¿Qué podría cambiar la tendencia?

Hay varios factores desencadenantes que podrían revertir o retrasar la caída del yen:

1. Pivote político del Banco de Japón: Una declaración de tendencia alcista o una subida sorpresiva de los tipos podrían sacudir a los mercados y hacer subir el yen.
   
   
2. Intervención coordinada: La acción conjunta del Ministerio de Finanzas y el Banco de Japón podría producir un repunte más agudo y duradero.
   
   
3. Evento global de reducción del riesgo: Una corrección importante de la renta variable o un recrudecimiento geopolítico podrían restablecer una demanda de refugio seguro.
   
   
4. Reducciones de tipos estadounidenses más rápidas: Una Reserva Federal acomodaticia podría reducir los diferenciales de rendimiento y frenar el impulso del USD/JPY.
   
   

Sin embargo, sin uno de estos catalizadores, parece que la debilidad del yen continuará.

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Perspectivas técnicas sobre el USD/JPY: el USD/JPY apunta a 155

En el momento de redactar este informe, la presión de compra es evidente en el gráfico diario, con el par en modo de descubrimiento de precios en torno a los 152,36. Los datos sobre el volumen muestran el dominio de los compradores, y los vendedores aún no se han mostrado lo suficientemente convencidos como para desafiar la tendencia.

Si aumenta la presión de venta, la recuperación del yen podría provocar un retroceso hacia los niveles de soporte de 147,10 y 146,24. Sin embargo, si el impulso alcista persiste, el par USD/JPY podría extender su repunte hacia los 155 puntos, lo que podría marcar un nuevo máximo para 2025.

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Conclusión técnica: la tendencia sigue siendo alcista, pero se ha intensificado volatilidad cerca de los niveles de intervención significa que los operadores deben gestionar tamaño de posición, uso del margen, y apalancamiento exposición con cuidado.

Los operadores pueden monitorear estos niveles de USD/JPY usando Derive MT5 herramientas gráficas avanzadas para tiempos precisos de entrada y salida.

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Implicaciones de inversión en yen

Para los operadores, la divergencia de políticas sigue siendo el tema clave que impulsa al USD/JPY.

• Estrategias a corto plazo: La compra en caso de caídas puede seguir siendo favorable mientras se mantenga el 151 puntos como soporte, pero los operadores deberían seguir de cerca la retórica de Tokio.
  
  
• Posicionamiento a medio plazo: Mantener la flexibilidad puede resultar favorable: las sorpresas en materia de intervención o políticas podrían provocar cambios bruscos.
  
  
• Impacto en todos los mercados: La rentabilidad del carry trade se extiende más allá de las divisas, lo que podría impulsar los flujos mundiales de acciones y bonos financiados con préstamos baratos en yenes.

Nuestro mercado de divisas calculadora de operaciones puede ayudar a determinar el tamaño óptimo de las posiciones, los requisitos de margen y los posibles retornos de las estrategias de carry-trade.

A menos que Japón endurezca su política pronto, 2025 podría marcar el pleno retorno del carry trade mundial y un período prolongado de debilidad del yen.

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El oro se acerca a la marca de los 4.000$ cotiza en torno a los 3.970$ por onza - su nivel más alto de la historia. El repunte, con un aumento de más del 50% en lo que va de año, refleja una tendencia mundial más profunda: los inversores se están alejando del papel moneda y optando por el valor tangible. Con las compras efectuadas por los bancos centrales, las entradas de fondos cotizados en bolsa y una clara tendencia a la desdolarización, el oro se ha convertido en la mejor «cobertura fiduciaria» en 2025.

Conclusiones clave

• El oro ha subido un 50% hasta la fecha, alcanzando los 3.970 USD/oz, su mejor posición de la historia.
• Compras realizadas por los bancos centrales: aproximadamente 80 toneladas al mes (Consejo Mundial del Oro, 2025).
• Entradas de ETF: +200 toneladas en el primer semestre de 2025 (Bloomberg Financial LP).
• Probabilidad de reducción de tipos de la Fed: 94,6% (herramienta FedWatch de CME).
• Objetivo de UBS: 4.200 dólares; Goldman Sachs: 4.900 dólares para 2026.
• Tema macro: desdolarización y disminución de la confianza en el dinero fiduciario.

El repunte récord del oro: qué lo impulsa

El repunte del oro en 2025 comenzó en marzo, cuando los precios superaron la marca de los 3.000 dólares, luego los 3.500 dólares en abril y los 3.800 dólares en septiembre. Cada ruptura se ha visto respaldada por las constantes entradas de ETF y la demanda de los bancos centrales, que, en conjunto, están creando una presión estructural de compra.

Los datos de Bloomberg muestran que los ETF respaldados por oro aumentaron en 200 toneladas en la primera mitad de 2025, el mayor salto desde 2020. Los operadores también aumentaron su exposición alcista al ETF SPDR Gold Shares, lo que reforzó el impulso institucional.

Mientras tanto, los tipos de interés más bajos han hecho que el oro sea más atractivo en comparación con los activos que generan rentabilidad. El recorte de 25 puntos básicos de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos en septiembre y las expectativas de otro recorte en octubre siguen debilitando al dólar y alimentando la demanda de activos seguros.

Compra de oro por parte del banco central: impacto de la desdolarización en el oro

Los datos del Consejo Mundial del Oro (WGC) muestran que los bancos centrales de Asia, Oriente Medio y América Latina están comprando oro a un ritmo récord, con un promedio de 80 toneladas por mes este año.

Goldman Sachs prevé que la demanda de los bancos centrales entre 70 y 80 toneladas al mes continúe en 2026, lo que indica un reequilibrio a largo plazo de las reservas alejándolas del dólar estadounidense.

Oro como porcentaje de las tenencias totales de reservas en bancos centrales seleccionados

Este cambio forma parte de una tendencia de desdolarización más amplia, a medida que las economías emergentes se protegen contra los impuestos volatilidad y choques geopolíticos. Los inversores institucionales occidentales siguen su ejemplo y utilizan el oro como ancla de estabilidad en medio de la incertidumbre mundial.

JP Morgan señala que los bancos centrales no han sido los únicos que han aumentado su participación relativa en las tenencias de oro en los últimos dos años. En los mercados financieros del oro, el posicionamiento futuro de los inversores sigue siendo largo, con la expectativa de que el precio suba de valor en el futuro. Las posiciones largas de futuros y opciones no comerciales sobre el oro de COMEX, el principal mercado de futuros y opciones para la negociación de metales, alcanzaron un nuevo máximo en 2024 en términos reales.

El contexto macroeconómico: confianza bajo presión

El cierre del gobierno estadounidense en septiembre paralizó los datos económicos oficiales, lo que obligó a los mercados a confiar en estimaciones privadas. ABC News informa que, si se prolonga, esta perturbación podría reducir el PIB del cuarto trimestre hasta 2,4 puntos porcentuales.

En medio de los bloqueos de datos, la Reserva Federal se enfrenta a una mayor incertidumbre, lo que lleva a los mercados a favorecer activos estables como el oro.

En Europa y Asia, el aumento de los rendimientos de los bonos, la presión fiscal y la volatilidad política han fortalecido aún más la narrativa de que el oro no es solo una cobertura contra la inflación, sino que es una cobertura de confianza.

¿4.000 dólares son un límite o solo un punto de control?

Los analistas están divididos.

• UBS prevé 4.200 dólares para fin de año.
• Goldman Sachs elevó su objetivo para 2026 a 4.900 dólares.

Datos técnicos de Derive MT5 muestra un fuerte volumen de compras, aunque es posible una consolidación a corto plazo entre 3.970 y 4.000 dólares. Si los compradores se mantienen en esta zona, una ruptura podría empujar al oro hacia más de 4.200$. Los niveles de soporte se mantienen firmes en 3.630 y 3.310$.

Niveles técnicos del oro (gráfico diario Deriv MT5)

Del comercio del miedo al comercio de la fe

El aumento del oro en 2025 no es una reacción al pánico, sino una revaluación basada en la fe. Como dijo un estratega: «Este no es un movimiento de crisis. Es el mercado el que admite que las promesas en papel tienen límites».

La inflación persistente, los crecientes déficits y la inestabilidad geopolítica han debilitado la confianza en los sistemas fiduciarios. El oro se ha convertido en el nuevo punto de referencia para la credibilidad financiera, ya que sirve tanto de refugio seguro como de activo de reserva estratégico.

Cómo operar con oro en Deriv

Paso 1: Elige tu plataforma

Seleccione la plataforma Deriv que se adapte a su estilo de negociación:

• Derive MT5 — para la exposición basada en CFD con herramientas avanzadas de gráficos y análisis profesionales.
• Deriv Trader — para operaciones de tiempo fijo con una interfaz simplificada e intuitiva.
• Derive cTrader — para una liquidez profunda, una ejecución a alta velocidad y una gestión de pedidos de nivel profesional.

Paso 2: Selecciona tu tipo de instrumento

Elija el producto que se adapte a sus objetivos comerciales:

• CFD (contratos por diferencia): opere con precios del oro al alza o a la baja con apalancamiento.
• Multiplicadores: controle las posiciones más grandes con un capital menor y, al mismo tiempo, limite las desventajas.
• Contratos de tiempo fijo: especule con movimientos de precios a corto plazo con pagos predefinidos.

Paso 3: Aplicar la gestión de riesgos

Proteja su capital antes de iniciar una operación:

• Establezca órdenes de stop-loss y de obtención de beneficios.
• Calcule el tamaño de la posición en función de su tolerancia al riesgo con Deriv's calculadora de operaciones.
• Practica estrategias en el modo demo antes de lanzarlas al mercado.
  

Paso 4: Ejecute su operación

Una vez preparado, coloque sus operaciones con oro en la plataforma de Deriv que elija. Supervise las posiciones abiertas, revise el uso de los márgenes y ajuste las órdenes a medida que se desarrolle la acción del precio.

Perspectivas técnicas sobre el oro: ¿Hacia dónde se dirige el oro?

Goldman Sachs proyecta que el oro podría alcanzar los 4.000 dólares por onza a mediados de 2026 y los 4.900 dólares en diciembre de 2026.

J.P. Morgan, por otro lado, espera que el oro alcance un promedio de 3.675 dólares por onza en el cuarto trimestre de 2025 y que se acerque a los 4.000 dólares en el segundo trimestre de 2026, impulsado en gran medida por las compras de los bancos centrales y la persistente incertidumbre del mercado. Cabe destacar que, si se mantienen las tendencias actuales, los analistas optimistas pronostican que los precios podrían alcanzar los 10 000 dólares por onza de aquí a 2030, aunque este escenario depende de la actual inestabilidad geopolítica y de la fragilidad económica mundial.

Algunos indicadores técnicos sugieren que el oro se encuentra en un territorio de «sobrecompra extrema», lo que posibilita correcciones de precios a corto plazo antes de nuevas ganancias. Los niveles de soporte clave se sitúan ahora por encima de los 3.800$, con una resistencia en torno a los 3.900 y 4.000$, y existe un riesgo a la baja si la demanda de los bancos centrales se ralentiza o las tensiones geopolíticas disminuyen.