Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

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Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  

Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

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금과 미국 Treasury 수익률 간의 오랜 역상관 관계가 2025년에 사실상 붕괴되었습니다. 이 귀금속은 온스당 $4,000를 돌파하며 급등했으며, Treasury 수익률은 안정세를 보이고 미국 달러는 약세를 보였습니다. 이러한 괴리는 글로벌 위험 심리의 근본적인 변화를 시사합니다. 투자자들은 더 이상 미국 국채를 신뢰할 수 있는 헤지 수단으로 여기지 않습니다. 대신, 금이 부채 우려, 인플레이션 위험, 재정 불확실성으로 흔들리는 시장에서 선호되는 안전자산이 되었습니다.

핵심 요약

• 2025년에 약 9.2조 달러의 미국 시장성 부채가 만기 도래하여, Treasury는 수요 부진 속에 사상 최대 규모의 채권을 재융자해야 합니다.
  
• 연방 재정적자는 1.9조 달러에 이를 것으로 예상되어, 지속 불가능한 부채와 재정 안일에 대한 우려를 키우고 있습니다.
  
• 지속적인 인플레이션과 관세 관련 충격으로 장기 채권의 기간 프리미엄이 상승해, Treasury가 위험자산처럼 움직이고 있습니다.
  
• 미국 달러는 수익률이 높은데도 하락세를 보이며, 정부의 재정 건전성에 대한 신뢰 약화를 반영합니다.
  
• 금은 연초 대비 52% 상승하며 $4,000을 돌파했고, 중앙은행과 투자자들이 채권에서 실물자산으로 이동하고 있습니다.
  

압박받는 Treasury 수익률 시장

미국 Treasury 시장은 수십 년 만에 가장 힘든 한 해를 겪고 있습니다. 만기 도래하는 부채가 약 9.2조 달러에 달하며, 그 중 상당수가 상반기에 집중되어 정부는 빠른 속도로 신규 증권을 발행해야 했습니다. 투자자 수요가 이를 따라가지 못해 전반적인 매도세와 수익률 상승, 특히 장기물에서 두드러졌습니다.

동시에 재정적자는 1.9조 달러로 급증해, 정부 지출 증가가 장기 부채 지속 가능성을 악화시킬 것이라는 우려를 키웠습니다. 투자자들은 미국 부채를 보유하기 위해 더 높은 수익률을 요구하며, Treasury를 방어적 자산이 아닌 위험자산으로 재평가하게 만들었습니다.

여기에 기술적·정책적 충격(미국 무역 정책 변화, 관세 조정 등)까지 겹치며 가격 왜곡과 기간 프리미엄 상승을 초래했습니다. 과잉 공급, 인플레이션 불안, 재정 우려가 결합되어 2020년 이후 Treasury의 변동성이 가장 커졌습니다.

공백을 메우는 안전자산, 금

통상적으로 Treasury 매도세가 나타나면 미국 달러가 강세를 보이고 금은 약세를 보입니다. 하지만 2025년에는 이 공식이 깨졌습니다. 달러와 채권이 동반 하락하며 미국 재정 신뢰에 대한 위기가 드러났고, 금이 Treasury가 맡았던 방어적 역할을 대신하게 되었습니다.

투자자, 펀드매니저, 중앙은행들은 실물 금과 ETF 매수를 가속화하며, 정부가 보증하는 부채가 취약해 보이는 환경에서 금을 더 신뢰할 수 있는 가치 저장 수단으로 인식했습니다. 

그 결과 금은 온스당 $4,000을 돌파하며 거의 50년 만에 최고의 상승세를 기록했습니다.

금 vs 미국 Treasury 수익률 - 2025년 성과 비교

출처: World Gold Council (2025년 중간 전망), Reuters (2025년 10월 8일), YCharts U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rate Series.

이 데이터는 금과 수익률이 이제 동반 움직이고 있음을 보여줍니다. 금이 42% 랠리하며 수익률이 4.1%대에서 유지된 것은, 전통적인 역상관(수익률 하락 시 금 상승)이 붕괴되었음을 확인시켜줍니다. 이제 두 자산 모두 재정 불확실성과 정책 안정성에 대한 투자자 불신에 반응하고 있습니다.

금–Treasury 상관관계 붕괴의 결과

금–Treasury 헤지 붕괴로 시장은 더욱 변동성이 커지고 예측이 어려워졌습니다. 수익률은 높은 수준을 유지하고, 주식은 자산 간 상관관계가 상쇄되지 않아 안정성을 찾지 못하고 있습니다. 달러 약세는 인플레이션 우려를 증폭시켜, 금 수요를 더욱 뒷받침하는 피드백 루프를 만들고 있습니다.

다만 일부 애널리스트들은 2025년 후반에 반전 가능성도 보고 있습니다. 경제가 둔화되고 Federal Reserve가 금리 인하에 나선다면, 수익률이 하락하며 기존의 역상관 관계가 일부 회복될 수 있습니다. 하지만 현재로서는 금과 Treasury가 동반 움직이고 있으며, 이는 고전적 헤지의 구조적 기반이 흔들렸다는 신호입니다.

2025–2026년 금 가격 전망

애널리스트들은 향후 전망에 대해 의견이 엇갈립니다. Goldman Sachs는 재정 리스크가 지속된다면 금이 사상 최고치 부근을 유지할 것으로 예상하며, 일부 전략가들은 경기 침체로 인한 수익률 하락이 연말에 채권 압박을 완화할 수 있다고 봅니다.

그러나 근본적인 문제(대규모 부채 발행, 지속적 인플레이션, 미국 재정 관리에 대한 신뢰 약화)는 장기적 리밸런싱을 시사합니다. Treasury는 더 이상 순수한 안전자산으로 인식되지 않으며, 위험 환경의 일부가 되었습니다. 반면 금은 불확실한 시기에 안정성의 기준점이 되었습니다.

금 가격 기술적 인사이트

작성 시점 기준, 일간 차트에서 강한 매수세가 나타나고 있습니다. 다만, 가격이 상승 채널 상단에 근접하면 조정이 $3,850의 하단까지 이어질 수 있음을 시사합니다. 이 조정 시나리오는 RSI가 과매수 구간에 깊이 진입한 점에서 뒷받침됩니다. 반면, MACD는 강한 상승 모멘텀을 보여줍니다.  현 수준을 명확히 돌파하면 매수자들이 $4,100을 목표로 삼을 수 있습니다. 

금 투자 시사점

트레이더와 자산운용사에게 2025년 시장 환경은 새로운 헤지 현실을 시사합니다.
단기적으로는 중앙은행의 지속적 수요와 안전자산 선호에 힘입어 금이 $4,000 이상에서 조정될 가능성이 높습니다. 만약 경기 침체로 금리 인하가 촉발된다면 채권 가격이 회복될 수 있지만, 금은 정책 및 신용 리스크에 대한 전략적 보호 수단으로서 매력을 유지할 것입니다.

중기적으로는 Deriv MT5에서 금에 대한 분산 노출을 선호하는 것이 바람직하며, 트레이더는 multipliers를 활용해 변동성 환경에서 레버리지를 관리할 수 있습니다. 또한 Deriv의 trading calculator와 같은 도구를 활용하면 금 변동성 확대 속에서도 리스크 관리를 체계적으로 유지할 수 있습니다.

Deriv 플랫폼에서 금 거래 전략

Deriv의 트레이더는 다양한 거래 스타일과 목표에 맞춘 여러 플랫폼을 통해 금 시장에 접근할 수 있습니다.

당사 플랫폼은 스프레드 0.3핍부터 시작하는 경쟁력 있는 조건의 현물 금(XAU/USD) 거래, 깊은 유동성, 계좌 유형 및 관할 구역에 따라 최대 1:1000의 레버리지 옵션을 제공합니다. 또한 다양한 주문 유형, 고급 차트 도구, 통합 지표 등 기술적 분석을 위한 기능을 지원합니다.

금 가격 변동에 노출되면서도 리스크를 통제하고자 하는 트레이더는 Deriv Multipliers를 사용할 수 있습니다. 이 상품은 최대 손실이 고정된 상태에서 레버리지 거래가 가능해, 전통적인 마진 요건 없이 단기 금 변동성에 대응할 수 있습니다.

거래 준비 및 포지션 모니터링을 돕기 위해 Deriv의 trading calculators는 금 및 기타 상품의 계약 크기, 마진 요건, 핍 가치를 산출할 수 있도록 지원합니다. 모든 플랫폼에서 제공되는 추가 도구로는 스톱로스, 이익실현 기능이 있어, 정밀한 주문 관리와 자본 배분이 가능합니다.

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네. 분석가들은 일본의 확장적 재정 기조와 초저금리가 글로벌 캐리 트레이드를 되살릴 수 있다고 합니다.엔화가 7개월 만에 최저치로 떨어지고 USD/JPY는 브레이크 아웃 151 이상에서 트레이더는 더 높은 수익률을 추구하기 위해 다시 엔화를 빌리고 있습니다. 자산.이제 도쿄는 155를 다음 이정표로 보고 있는 가운데 자국 통화를 방어해야 한다는 압력이 커지고 있습니다.일본은행 (BoJ) 이 긴축 정책을 채택하거나 직접 개입하지 않는 한, 엔화 자금이 투입되는 거래는 2025년까지 글로벌 위험 성향을 계속 강화할 수 있습니다.

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주요 시사점

• USD/JPY는 엔화 약세가 재개되고 글로벌 위험 감수 심리가 지속되면서 151.00을 상향 돌파하며 7개월 만에 최고치를 기록했습니다.
  
  
• 다카이치 사나에의 부양책 정책은 대규모 재정 지출에 대한 기대감을 높여 BoJ 긴축을 지연시킵니다.
  
  
• 투자자들이 해외 고수익 자산에 투자하기 위해 엔화를 저렴하게 차입함에 따라 캐리 트레이드 활동이 재개되고 있습니다.
  
  
• 도쿄는 과도한 변동성에 대해 경고하고 있지만 시장은 계속해서 일본의 개입 임계값을 테스트하고 있습니다.
  
  
• 급격한 BoJ 변동이나 조율된 정부 개입을 제외하고 USD/JPY는 155를 테스트할 수 있습니다.
  
  

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2025년 일본 재정 부양책과 엔화 하락

일본의 정치적 변화가 엔화 하락 압력을 가중시키고 있습니다.사나에 다카이치 (Sanae Takaichi) 가 자유민주당 (LDP) 의 새 지도자로 선출됨에 따라 투자자들은 일본 정부가 성장을 뒷받침하기 위해 공공 지출을 늘릴 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

이 전략은 경제를 활성화할 수 있지만 재정 지속 가능성에 대한 우려를 불러일으키고 BoJ의 인플레이션 통제 노력을 복잡하게 만듭니다.일본 8월 인플레이션은 2.7% 로 여전히 목표치인 2% 를 상회하고 있어 긴축 정책을 유지해야 함을 시사합니다.

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일본의 물가상승률

하지만 전망치는 정반대로 움직이고 있습니다. 10월 30일까지 BoJ가 금리인상을 단행할 확률은 다카이치 총재 당선 전 60% 에서 하락한 26% 에 불과합니다.

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일본은행 이자율

이러한 전망 변화로 엔화 표시 투자의 매력이 떨어지고 수익률이 높은 시장으로의 자본 유출이 촉진되어 통화 하락이 가속화되었습니다.

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일본 엔화는 다카이치 졸트 시장으로서 거래에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

캐리 트레이드가 다시 시장 관심의 중심에 섰습니다.일본 금리가 0에 근접하면서 트레이더들은 미국이나 호주와 같이 수익률이 높은 경제국의 자산을 매수하기 위해 엔화를 빌리고 있습니다.

이 전략은 글로벌 시장에서 번창합니다. 위험 수요는 높고 2025년 주식 랠리는 완벽한 배경이 되었습니다.나스닥, S&P 500, 일본 니케이 225는 모두 최근 사상 최고치를 경신했는데, 이는 광범위한 투자자 신뢰를 반영한 결과입니다.이와 같은 낙관론이 엔화의 안전자산 수요를 약화시켜 세계에서 가장 많이 찾는 통화로서의 엔화 역할이 강화되었습니다.

이러한 움직임은 2000년대 중반 엔화 약세로 전 세계 투기 투자가 가속화되던 무역 호황이 반영되어 있습니다. 하지만 갑작스러운 BoJ 정책 변화로 추세가 역전되기 전까지는 말이죠.그러나 현재로서는 일본의 비둘기 통화 기조와 재정 확대로 인해 이 전략이 유지되고 있습니다.

트레이딩 인사이트: 캐리 트레이드는 변동성이 낮고 금리 스프레드가 넓을 때 수익성이 높지만 심리가 바뀌면 격렬하게 하락할 수 있습니다.격동적인 시장에서의 트레이딩에 대해 자세히 알아보려면 여기를 참조하십시오. 시장 변동성 가이드.

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도쿄의 딜레마: 개입하거나 하락을 용인하라

일본 재무부는 익숙한 곤경에 처해 있습니다.USD/JPY가 현재 151을 상회하고 있는 가운데 트레이더들은 과거 통화쌍이 150~152에 근접했을 때 촉발된 정부 개입 조짐을 주시하고 있습니다.

카토 가쓰노부 재무장관이 일본의 “과도한 변동성”에 대응할 준비가 되어 있다고 재차 강조했지만 시장은 여전히 회의적입니다.통화정책 조정이 뒷받침되지 않는 한 개입에는 비용이 많이 들고 단기적입니다.다카이치 행정부가 재정 확장 쪽으로 기울고 있는 상황에서 구두 경고만으로는 엔화 매도를 막을 수 없을 것입니다.

따라서 도쿄는 두 가지 옵션을 선택할 수 있습니다. 직접 개입하여 제한적인 성공 위험을 감수하거나, 아니면 기다렸다가 시장이 안정되기를 바라는 것입니다. 이는 투기적 포지셔닝이 USD/JPY 롱 쪽으로 크게 기울어져 있기 때문에 위험한 콜입니다.

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미국 요인: 역풍에도 불구하고 달러화 강세

미국 달러는 국내 위기 속에서도 여전히 견조합니다.계속되는 정부 폐쇄와 이에 대한 기대에도 불구하고 연방준비은행 금리인하 - 시장이 10월 25 bp 인하 가능성을 95%, 12월에 84% 로 책정하고 있는 가운데 달러화는 안전자산 수요에 힘입어 계속해서 이익을 얻고 있습니다.

DXY 지수는 미국 자산이 일본보다 안정적이라는 시장의 견해를 반영하여 98 이상을 유지하고 있습니다.

그 결과, 달러화 약세도 엔화 대비 강세를 보이고 있어 USD/JPY가 강세를 유지하고 있습니다.

까지 연준 금리인하 기조가 가속화되거나 BoJ가 금리인상에 나설 경우, 양국의 수익률 격차가 계속해서 엔화 약세를 유지할 것입니다.

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트렌드를 바꿀 수 있는 것은 무엇일까요?

다음과 같은 몇 가지 요인이 엔화 하락을 되돌리거나 늦출 수 있습니다.

1. BoJ 정책 피벗: 매파적 발언이나 깜짝 금리인상은 시장에 충격을 주고 엔화를 상승시킬 수 있습니다.
   
   
2. 조정된 개입: 재무부와 BoJ의 공동 조치는 더 빠르고 지속적인 반등을 가져올 수 있습니다.
   
   
3. 글로벌 리스크 오프 이벤트: 대규모 주식 조정 또는 지정학적 상승은 안전 자산 수요를 회복시킬 수 있습니다.
   
   
4. 미국 금리 인하 속도 향상: 비둘기 같은 연준은 수익률 차이를 좁혀 USD/JPY 모멘텀을 억제할 수 있습니다.
   
   

그러나 이러한 촉매제 중 하나가 없다면 엔화 약세는 계속될 것으로 보입니다.

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USD JPY 기술 인사이트: USD/JPY, 155 전망

이 글을 쓰는 시점에서 일봉 차트에서는 매수 압력이 분명하며, 152.36 근방에서 가격 발견 모드에 있습니다.거래량 데이터는 구매자 우세를 보여주고 있으며, 판매자는 아직 이러한 추세에 도전할 만큼 충분한 확신을 보여주지 못하고 있습니다.

매도 압력이 커지면 엔화 하락으로 지지선인 147.10과 146.24 지지선까지 하락할 수 있습니다.하지만 강세 모멘텀이 지속된다면 USD/JPY는 155까지 랠리를 연장해 2025년 최고점을 갱신할 수 있습니다.

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기술적 요점: 추세는 여전히 강세이지만 상승하고 있습니다 휘발성 개입 수준에 가깝다는 것은 트레이더가 관리해야 함을 의미합니다 포지션 크기, 마진 사용, 및 이점 노출을 조심하세요.

트레이더는 다음을 사용하여 이러한 USD/JPY 수준을 모니터링할 수 있습니다. MT5를 파생하세요 정확한 진입 및 퇴장 타이밍을 위한 고급 차트 도구

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엔화 투자에 미치는 영향

트레이더들에게는 정책 다이버전스가 USD/JPY를 이끄는 주요 테마로 남아 있습니다.

• 단기 전략: 151이 지지선으로 유지되는 한 하락 매수는 여전히 유리할 수 있지만, 트레이더는 도쿄의 전망을 면밀히 관찰해야 합니다.
  
  
• 중기 포지셔닝: 유연성을 유지하는 것이 유리할 수 있습니다. 개입이나 갑작스러운 정책이 급격한 반전을 촉발할 수 있습니다.
  
  
• 시장 간 영향: 캐리 트레이드의 수익률은 FX를 넘어서며, 이는 잠재적으로 저렴한 엔화 차입으로 자금을 조달하는 글로벌 주식 및 채권 흐름을 증가시킬 수 있습니다.

우리의 외환 트레이딩 계산기 캐리 트레이드 전략의 최적 포지션 규모, 마진 요구 사항 및 잠재적 수익을 결정하는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

일본이 조만간 긴축 정책을 시행하지 않는 한, 2025년은 글로벌 캐리 트레이드의 완전한 회복을 의미하며 엔화 약세가 장기화될 수 있습니다.

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금은 4,000달러에 가까워지고 있습니다. 온스당 약 3,970달러에서 거래 - 역사상 최고 수준.전년 대비 50% 이상 상승한 이 랠리는 투자자들이 지폐에서 벗어나 가시적 가치로 이동하고 있다는 글로벌 추세가 더욱 깊어지고 있음을 반영합니다.중앙은행 매수, ETF 유입, 뚜렷한 탈달러화 추진으로 금은 2025년 궁극적인 “트러스트 헤지 (trust hedge)" 로 자리잡았습니다.

주요 시사점

• 금은 전년 동기 대비 50% 급등하여 온스당 3,970 달러 (USD) 를 테스트하며 사상 가장 강력한 마감세를 보였습니다.
• 중앙은행 구매: 월 최대 80톤 (세계 금위원회, 2025년).
• ETF 유입: 2025년 상반기에 200톤 이상 (블룸버그 파이낸셜 LP).
• 연준 금리 인하 확률: 94.6% (CME 페드워치 툴).
• UBS 목표: 2026년까지 4,200달러, 골드만 삭스: 4,900달러
• 거시적 주제: 탈달러화와 법정화폐에 대한 신뢰 하락.

금값 사상 최고치 랠리 - 상승의 원동력

골드 2025년 랠리 3월에 가격이 3,000달러를 돌파하면서 시작되었고, 4월에는 3,500달러, 9월에는 3,800달러를 돌파했습니다.각 돌파는 지속적인 ETF 유입과 중앙은행 수요에 힘입어 뒷받침되고 있으며, 이 두 가지가 합쳐져 구조적 매수 압력이 발생하고 있습니다.

블룸버그 데이터에 따르면 금 담보 ETF는 2025년 상반기에 200톤 증가하여 2020년 이후 가장 큰 폭의 상승세를 보였습니다.트레이더들은 또한 SPDR 금주 ETF에 대한 강세 노출을 늘려 기관 모멘텀을 강화했습니다.

한편, 금리가 낮아지면서 수익률 유지 자산에 비해 금 매력이 높아졌습니다.미국 연방준비제도 (Fed·연준) 의 9월 25bp 인하와 10월 추가 인하 전망은 계속해서 달러 약세를 이어가며 안전자산에 대한 수요를 부추기고 있습니다.

중앙은행 금 매수: 디달러화가 금에 미치는 영향

세계금위원회 (WGC) 데이터에 따르면 아시아, 중동, 라틴 아메리카의 중앙은행은 올해 들어 월 평균 80톤이라는 기록적인 속도로 금을 매입하고 있습니다.

골드만삭스 (Goldman Sachs) 는 2026년에도 월 70~80톤의 중앙은행 수요가 계속될 것으로 예측하고 있으며, 이는 장기적으로 미국 달러 대비 준비금 재조정이 이루어질 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

일부 중앙은행의 총 준비금 보유량 중 금 (%)

신흥 경제국들이 재정에 대한 헤징에 나서면서 이러한 변화는 광범위한 탈달러화 추세의 일부를 형성합니다. 휘발성 그리고 지정학적 충격.서구 기관 투자자들도 글로벌 불확실성 속에서 금을 안정의 앵커로 삼아 그 뒤를 따르고 있습니다.

JP Morgan은 지난 몇 년 동안 상대적으로 금 보유량을 늘린 것은 CB만이 아니라고 지적합니다.금융 금 시장에서는 투자자들의 선물 포지셔닝이 오래 지속되고 있어 향후 가격이 상승할 것이라는 기대감이 있습니다.금속 거래의 주요 선물 및 옵션 시장인 COMEX 골드의 비상업용 선물 및 옵션 롱 포지션은 실질 기준으로 2024년 최고치를 경신했습니다.

거시적 배경: 압박 속에서의 신뢰

9월 미국 정부 폐쇄로 공식 경제 지표가 중단되면서 시장은 민간 추정치에 의존할 수밖에 없었습니다.ABC 뉴스는 이러한 혼란이 장기화될 경우 4분기 GDP 대비 최대 2.4% 포인트 하락할 수 있다고 보도했습니다.

경제지표 정전 속에서 연방준비은행은 불확실성이 높아져 시장이 금과 같은 안정적인 자산을 선호하게 되었습니다.

유럽과 아시아에서는 채권 수익률 상승, 재정 부담, 정치적 변동성 등으로 인해 금이 단순한 인플레이션 헤지가 아니라 신탁 헤지라는 이야기가 더욱 강화되었습니다.

4,000달러는 상한선인가요 아니면 그냥 검문소인가요?

분석가들은 의견이 분분합니다.

• UBS는 연말까지 4,200달러를 예상하고 있습니다.
• 골드만삭스는 2026년 목표치를 4,900달러로 상향 조정했다.

기술 데이터 출처 MT5를 파생하세요 매수량이 강하지만 단기적으로 $3,970-$4,000 정도의 통합이 가능합니다.매수자가 이 영역을 유지할 경우, 금이 돌파된다면 금은 $4,200 이상으로 밀릴 수 있습니다.지지선은 3,630달러와 3,310달러로 견고하게 유지되고 있습니다.

골드 테크니컬 레벨 (Deriv MT5 데일리 차트)

공포 거래에서 신앙 거래로

2025년 금의 급등은 패닉에 대한 반응이 아니라 신뢰의 가격 조정입니다.한 전략가는 이렇게 말했습니다. “이것은 위기 조치가 아닙니다.종이 약속에는 한계가 있다는 것을 시장이 인정하고 있습니다.”

지속적인 인플레이션, 증가하는 적자, 지정학적 불안정은 법정화폐 시스템에 대한 신뢰를 약화시켰습니다.금은 안전한 피난처이자 전략적 준비자산 역할을 하면서 금융 신뢰도의 새로운 기준이 되었습니다.

Deriv에서 금을 거래하는 방법

1단계: 플랫폼 선택

거래 스타일에 맞는 Deriv 플랫폼을 선택하세요.

• MT5를 파생하세요 — 고급 차트 및 전문 분석 도구를 사용한 CFD 기반 노출용.
• 데리브 트레이더 — 단순하고 직관적인 인터페이스를 갖춘 고정 시간 거래에 적합합니다.
• 데리브 트레이더 — 풍부한 유동성, 빠른 실행 및 전문가 수준의 주문 관리를 제공합니다.

2단계: 기기 유형 선택

거래 목표에 맞는 상품을 선택하세요.

• CFD (차액계약) — 레버리지로 금 가격 상승 또는 하락 거래를 할 수 있습니다.
• 멀티플라이어 — 적은 자본으로 더 큰 포지션을 관리하면서 단점은 제한할 수 있습니다.
• 고정 시간 계약 — 사전 정의된 지불금으로 단기 가격 변동을 예측합니다.

3단계: 위험 관리 적용

거래를 시작하기 전에 자본을 보호하세요:

• 손절매 및 차익실현 주문을 설정합니다.
• Deriv's를 사용하여 위험 허용 범위를 기반으로 포지션 규모를 계산합니다. 트레이딩 계산기.
• 라이브로 시작하기 전에 데모 모드에서 전략을 연습하세요.
  

4단계: 거래 실행

준비가 완료되면 선택한 Deriv 플랫폼에서 금 거래를 하세요.오픈 포지션을 모니터링하고, 마진 사용을 검토하고, 가격 움직임이 전개됨에 따라 주문을 조정하세요.

골드 기술 인사이트: 금은 어디로 향하고 있을까요?

골드만 삭스는 금이 2026년 중반까지 온스당 4,000달러, 2026년 12월에는 4,900달러에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

반면 JP 모건은 중앙은행 매입과 지속적인 시장 불확실성에 힘입어 2025년 4분기 금 가격이 온스당 평균 3,675달러로, 2026년 2분기에는 4,000달러에 근접할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.특히 낙관적인 애널리스트들은 현재의 추세가 지속될 경우 2030년까지 온스당 1만 달러까지 오를 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 하지만 이러한 시나리오는 지속적인 글로벌 경제 취약성과 지정학적 불안정성에 따라 달라집니다.

일부 기술 지표에 따르면 금은 “극도로 과매수” 영역에 있기 때문에 추가 상승 전에 단기 가격 조정이 가능합니다.현재 주요 지지선은 $3,800를 상회하고 있고, 저항선은 $3,900~$4,000 정도이며, 중앙은행 수요가 둔화되거나 지정학적 긴장이 완화될 경우 하락 위험이 있습니다.