Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

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Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  
  

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Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

Alt text: Hourly candlestick chart showing Fetch.AI (FET/USD) price movement against the US dollar.

Source: Deriv MT5

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

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Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

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Oltinning AQSh Treasury daromadlari bilan uzoq muddatli teskari bog‘liqligi 2025 yilda amalda buzildi. Qimmatbaho metall bir unsiyasi uchun $4,000 dan oshib ketdi, hatto Treasury daromadlari barqaror bo‘lib, AQSh dollari zaiflashgan bir paytda. Bu tafovut global xavf kayfiyatida chuqurroq o‘zgarishni bildiradi: investorlar endi AQSh davlat obligatsiyalarini ishonchli xedj sifatida ko‘rmayapti. Aksincha, oltin qarz xavotirlari, inflyatsiya riski va fiskal noaniqlikdan larzaga kelgan bozorda afzal ko‘riladigan xavfsiz aktivga aylandi.

Asosiy xulosalar

• 2025 yilda AQShda taxminan $9,2 trillion miqdoridagi bozorga chiqariladigan qarz muddati tugaydi, bu esa Treasury’ni talab past bo‘lgan bir paytda rekord miqdordagi obligatsiyalarni qayta moliyalashtirishga majbur qiladi.
  
• Federal byudjet taqchilligi $1,9 trillionga yetishi kutilmoqda, bu esa barqaror bo‘lmagan qarz va fiskal beparvolikdan xavotirlarni kuchaytiradi.
  
• Doimiy inflyatsiya va tarifga oid zarbalar uzoq muddatli obligatsiyalardagi muddat mukofotini oshirdi, natijada Treasury’lar ko‘proq xavfli aktivlar kabi harakat qilmoqda.
  
• AQSh dollari daromadlar yuqori bo‘lib turganiga qaramay pasaydi, bu hukumatning fiskal holatiga bo‘lgan ishonchning yemirilishini aks ettiradi.
  
• Oltin yil boshidan buyon 52% ga oshdi, $4,000 dan yuqoriga chiqdi, chunki markaziy banklar va investorlar obligatsiyalardan real aktivlarga o‘tmoqda.
  

Treasury daromadlari bozori bosim ostida

AQSh Treasury bozori so‘nggi o‘n yilliklarda eng og‘ir yillaridan birini boshdan kechirdi. Muddati tugayotgan qarz to‘lqini — taxminan $9,2 trillion, asosan yilning birinchi yarmida to‘planib qolgan — hukumatni yangi qimmatli qog‘ozlarni tez sur’atda chiqarishga majbur qildi. Investorlarning ishtahasi yetarli bo‘lmadi, bu esa keng ko‘lamli sotuv va ayniqsa uzoq muddatli obligatsiyalarda daromadlarning oshishiga olib keldi.

Shu bilan birga, fiskal taqchillik $1,9 trilliongacha oshdi, bu esa hukumat xarajatlarining ko‘payishi uzoq muddatli qarz barqarorligini yanada yomonlashtirishi mumkinligidan xavotirlarni kuchaytirdi. Investorlar AQSh qarzini ushlab turish uchun yuqoriroq daromadlarni talab qila boshladi, natijada Treasury’lar himoya vositasi emas, balki xavfli aktivlar sifatida qayta baholandi.

Vaziyatni texnik va siyosiy zarbalar — jumladan, AQSh savdo siyosatidagi o‘zgarishlar va tarif o‘zgarishlari — yanada og‘irlashtirdi, bu narxlarni buzdi va muddat mukofotini oshirdi. Taklifning ortishi, inflyatsiya xavotiri va fiskal tashvishlarning kombinatsiyasi Treasury’larni 2020 yildan beri eng o‘zgaruvchan holatga keltirdi.

Oltin xavfsiz aktiv sifatida bo‘shliqni to‘ldirmoqda

Odatda, Treasury’larning sotilishi AQSh dollarini mustahkamlab, oltinga bosim o‘tkazardi. Ammo 2025 yilda bu ssenariy o‘zgardi. Dollar obligatsiyalar bilan birga pasaydi, bu esa AQSh fiskal ishonchliligiga bo‘lgan ishonch inqirozini ko‘rsatdi. Bu esa oltinga ilgari Treasury’lar egallagan himoya rolini o‘z zimmasiga olish uchun imkoniyat yaratdi.

Investorlar, fond menejerlari va markaziy banklar jismoniy oltin va ETF’larni xarid qilishni tezlashtirdi, bu metallni hukumat kafolatlagan qarz zaif ko‘ringan muhitda ishonchli qiymat saqlovchi sifatida ko‘rishmoqda. 

Natijada oltin bir unsiyasi uchun $4,000 dan oshib, so‘nggi qariyb ellik yildagi eng yaxshi natijasini ko‘rsatdi.

Oltin va AQSh Treasury daromadlari - 2025 yil natijalari taqqoslanishi

Manbalar: World Gold Council (2025 yil o‘rtasi prognozi), Reuters (8 oktyabr 2025), YCharts AQSh 10 yillik Treasury daromadlari seriyasi.

Ma’lumotlar oltin va daromadlar endi birga harakat qilayotganini ko‘rsatadi. Oltinning 42% ga o‘sishi va daromadlarning 4.1% atrofida barqaror bo‘lishi an’anaviy teskari korrelyatsiyaning — ya’ni oltin o‘sib, daromadlar pasayadigan — endi yo‘qligini tasdiqlaydi. Endi ikkala aktiv ham fiskal noaniqlik va siyosiy barqarorlikka bo‘lgan ishonchsizlikka javob bermoqda.

Oltin–Treasury korrelyatsiyasi buzilishining oqibatlari

Oltin–Treasury xedjining buzilishi bozorlarni yanada o‘zgaruvchan va kam bashoratli qildi. Daromadlar yuqori bo‘lib qoldi, aksiyalar esa ilgari bir-birini muvozanatlashtirgan kross-aktiv korrelyatsiyalari fonida barqarorlik topa olmadi. Dollar zaifligi inflyatsiya xavotirlarini kuchaytirdi va bu oltin talabini yanada oshiruvchi teskari aloqa hosil qildi.

Biroq, ayrim tahlilchilar 2025 yil oxirida vaziyat o‘zgarishi mumkinligini ko‘rmoqda. Agar iqtisod sekinlashsa va Federal Reserve foiz stavkalarini pasaytirsa, daromadlar tushishi va eski teskari bog‘liqlik qisman tiklanishi mumkin. Ammo hozircha oltin va Treasury’lar birga harakat qilmoqda — bu klassik xedjning strukturaviy asosi yorilganidan dalolat.

Oltin narxi prognozi 2025–2026

Tahlilchilar keyingi bosqich bo‘yicha bir fikrga kelmagan. Goldman Sachs fiskal xavflar saqlanib qolsa, oltin rekord darajalar atrofida ushlab turilishi mumkinligini taxmin qilmoqda, ayrim strateglar esa ehtimoliy retsessiyadan pastroq daromadlar yil oxirida obligatsiyalarga bosimni yumshatishi mumkin deb hisoblaydi.

Biroq, asosiy muammo — yuqori qarz chiqarilishi, doimiy inflyatsiya va AQSh fiskal boshqaruviga ishonchning pasayishi — uzoq muddatli muvozanatga ishora qiladi. Treasury’lar endi sof xavfsiz aktiv sifatida ko‘rilmayapti; ular xavf muhitining bir qismiga aylandi. Oltin esa, o‘z navbatida, noaniq davrda barqarorlik uchun asosga aylandi.

Oltin narxi texnik tahlili

Ushbu maqola yozilayotgan paytda, kundalik grafikda kuchli xarid bosimi ko‘rinmoqda. Biroq, narxlar yuqorilab borayotgan kanalning yuqori chegarasiga yaqinlashishi kutilayotgan orqaga harakat — $3,850 atrofidagi pastki chegaraga — ehtimolini bildirishi mumkin. Bu orqaga harakat ssenariysi RSI ko‘rsatkichi haddan tashqari sotib olingan hududda bo‘lishi bilan tasdiqlanadi. Boshqa tomondan, MACD kuchli bulllik impulsni ko‘rsatmoqda.  Joriy darajadan aniq yuqoriga harakat xaridorlarga $4,100 ni nishonga olish uchun “yashil chiroq” berishi mumkin. 

Oltin investitsiyasi bo‘yicha xulosalar

Treyderlar va aktiv menejerlari uchun 2025 yil yangi xedj haqiqatini bildiradi.
Qisqa muddatda oltin $4,000 dan yuqorida konsolidatsiyalash ehtimoli yuqori, bu markaziy banklar doimiy talabi va xavfsiz aktivlarga oqim bilan qo‘llab-quvvatlanadi. Agar retsessiya foiz stavkalarining pasayishiga olib kelsa, obligatsiyalar narxi tiklanishi mumkin — biroq oltin siyosiy va kredit xavfidan himoya sifatida strategik jozibasini saqlab qoladi.

O‘rta muddatli pozitsiyalarda Deriv MT5 platformasida oltinga diversifikatsiyalangan ta’sir afzal bo‘lishi kerak, bu yerda treyderlar multiplikatorlar yordamida leverage ni o‘zgaruvchan sharoitda boshqarishlari mumkin. Shu bilan birga, Deriv’ning trading calculator kabi vositalaridan foydalanish oltin o‘zgaruvchanligi oshgan sari intizomli risk boshqaruvini saqlashga yordam beradi.

Deriv platformalarida oltin bilan savdo strategiyalari

Deriv’dagi treyderlar oltin bozoriga turli savdo uslublari va maqsadlariga mos platformalar orqali kirishlari mumkin.

Bizning platformalar spot oltin (XAU/USD) ga 0.3 pipdan boshlanadigan raqobatbardosh spredlar, chuqur likvidlik va hisob turi hamda yurisdiktsiyaga qarab 1:1000 gacha leverage imkoniyatlarini taqdim etadi. Platforma bir nechta buyurtma turlarini, ilg‘or grafik vositalarini va texnik tahlil uchun integratsiyalashgan indikatorlarni qo‘llab-quvvatlaydi.

Oltin narxi harakatiga nazoratli risk bilan ta’sir qilishni istagan treyderlar Deriv Multipliers’dan foydalanishlari mumkin, bu mahsulot leverage bilan ishtirok etish va maksimal yo‘qotishni oldindan belgilash imkonini beradi. Ushbu mahsulot mijozlarga an’anaviy marja talablarisiz qisqa muddatli oltin o‘zgaruvchanligida ishtirok etish imkonini beradi.

Savdo tayyorgarligi va pozitsiyani monitoring qilishda yordam berish uchun Deriv’ning trading calculators foydalanuvchilarga oltin va boshqa instrumentlar uchun kontrakt hajmi, marja talablari va pip qiymatini aniqlashga yordam beradi. Barcha platformalarda mavjud bo‘lgan qo‘shimcha vositalar — stop-loss va take-profit funksiyalari — buyurtmalarni aniq boshqarish va kapitalni taqsimlash imkonini beradi.

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Ha - tahlilchilarga ko'ra, Yaponiyaning ekspansiv fiskal pozitsiyasi va juda past foiz stavkalari global tashish savdosini jonlantirishi mumkin. Yen etti oylik eng past darajaga tushib, USD/JPY esa uzilish 151 dan yuqorida, savdogarlar yana bir bor yuqori rentabelliklarni quvib olish uchun yenaga qarz olishmoqda aktivlar. Tokio endi valyutasini himoya qilish uchun kuchayib borayotgan bosimga duch kelmoqda, chunki bozorlar 155-ni keyingi bosqich sifatida ko'rishadi. Yaponiya banki (BoJ) qattiqroq siyosatga murojaat qilmasa yoki to'g'ridan-to'g'ri aralashmasa, yen tomonidan moliyalashtiriladigan savdolar 2025 yilgacha global xavf ishtahasini kuchaytirishi mumkin.

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Asosiy tushunchalar

• Yenaning yangilangan zaifligi va global xavf his-tuyg'ularining sharoitida USD/JPY 151.00 dan yuqori yetti oylik eng yuqori darajaga etdi.
  
  
• Sanae Takaichining rag'batlantiruvchi siyosati keng miqyosli fiskal xarajatlar taxminlarini oshiradi va BoJ keskinlashuvini kechiktiradi.
  
  
• Carry savdo faoliyati qayta tiklanadi, chunki investorlar chet elda yuqori rentabelli aktivlarga sarmoya kiritish uchun yenani arzonga qarz olishadi.
  
  
• Tokio haddan tashqari o'zgaruvchanlikdan ogohlantirmoqda, ammo bozorlar Yaponiyaning aralashuv ostonasini sinovdan o'tkazishda davom
  
  
• USD/JPY 155 sinovdan o'tkazishi mumkin, bu esa BoJ keskin siljishi yoki hukumatning muvofiqlashtirilgan aralashuvini taqiqladi.
  
  

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Yaponiyaning fiskal rag'batlantirilishi 2025 va iyenaning slaydi

Yaponiyaning siyosiy siljishi yenaga nisbatan yangi pasayish bosimini keltirib chiqarmoqda. Sanae Takaichi Liberal-demokratik partiyaning (LDP) yangi rahbari etib saylanganidan keyin investorlar uning hukumati o'sishni qo'llab-quvvatlash uchun davlat xarajatlarini kuchaytirishini kutmoqdalar.

Ushbu strategiya iqtisodiyotni rag'batlantirishi mumkin bo'lsa-da, fiskal barqarorlik xavotirlarini keltirib chiqaradi va BoJning inflyatsiyani nazorat qilish harakatlarini murakkablashtiradi. Yaponiyaning inflyatsiyasi avgust oyida 2,7 foizni tashkil etdi, bu esa hali ham 2% maqsaddan yuqori, bu siyosat qattiq turishi kerakligini taklif qildi.

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Yaponiyaning inflyatsiya darajasi

Shunga qaramay, taxminlar teskari yo'nalishda harakat qilmoqda: bozorlarda endi 30 oktyabrga qadar BoJ stavkasi ko'tarilishi faqat 26% ehtimoli bor, bu Takaichi g'alabasidan oldingi 60% ga nisbatan past.

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Yaponiya banki foiz stavkalari

Istiqboldagi bu o'zgarish yenga denominatsiyalangan investitsiyalarni kamroq jozibali qildi va yuqori rentabelli bozorlarga kapital oqimini kuchaytirdi va valyutaning pasayishini tezlashtirdi.

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Yaponiya yenasi Takaichi Jolts Markets sifatida savdo-sotiqni e'tiborsiz qoldiradi

Tashish savdosi yana bozor diqqat markaziga kirdi. Yaponiya stavkalari nolga yaqin langanda, savdogarlar AQSh yoki Avstraliya kabi yuqori rentabellikka ega iqtisodiyotlarda aktivlarni sotib olish uchun iyenaga qarz olishmoqda.

Ushbu strategiya global bo'lganda gullab-yashnaydi xavf ishtaha yuqori va 2025 yilgi aktsiyalar bo'yicha mitingi mukammal fonni taqdim etdi. Nasdaq, S&P 500 va Yaponiyaning Nikkei 225 yaqinda yangi rekord darajalarga erishdi, bu esa investorlarning keng ishonchini aks ettiradi. Xuddi shu nekbinlik iyenaning xavfsiz joyiga bo'lgan talabini kamaytirib, uning dunyodagi moliyalashtirish valyutasi sifatida rolini kuchaytirdi.

2000-yillarning o'rtalaridagi dinamik aks ettirishlar savdo-sotiqning kuchayishini keltirib chiqardi, bu paytda iyenaning zaifligi butun dunyo bo'ylab spekulyativ sarmoyalarni keltirib chiqardi - BoJ siyosatining to'satdan siljishi trendni Biroq, hozircha Yaponiyaning dovish pul pozitsiyasi va fiskal kengayishi strategiyani jonli saqlamoqda.

Savdo tushunchasi: Volatillik past va foiz stavkalari tarqalishi keng bo'lganda olib borish savdolari foydali bo'ladi, ammo his-tuyg'u o'zgarganda ular shiddatli ravishda ochishi mumkin. Bizning turbulent bozorlarda savdo qilish haqida ko'proq bilib oling bozorning o'zgaruvchanligi bo'yicha qo'llanma.

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Tokioning dilemmasi: aralashish yoki slaydga toqat qiling

Yaponiya Moliya vazirligi tanish bog'lanishda qo'lga tushdi. USD/JPY endi 151 dan yuqori bo'lsa, savdogarlar hukumat aralashuvi belgilarini kuzatmoqdalar - juftlik 150-152 ga yaqinlashganda tarixan tetiklanadi.

Moliya vaziri Katsunobu Kato Yaponiyaning “haddan tashqari o'zgaruvchanlikka” qarshi kurashishga tayyorligini takrorladi, ammo bozor skeptik bo'lib qolmoqda. Agar pul siyosatini muvofiqlashtirish bilan ta'minlanmasa, aralashuvlar qimmatga tushadi va qisqa muddatli. Takaichi ma'muriyati fiskal kengayishga suyanib qolganligi sababli, og'zaki ogohlantirishlar yen sotishni to'xtatishi ehtimoldan yiroq emas.

Bu Tokioga ikkita variant bilan qoldiradi: to'g'ridan-to'g'ri aralashish, cheklangan muvaffaqiyatga xavf tug'dirish yoki kutish va bozor barqarorlashishini umid qilish - bu talabga javob beradi, chunki spekulyativ joylashish USD/JPY uzunliklariga og'ir egilmoqda.

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AQSh omili: qarshi shamollarga qaramay chidamli dollar

AQSh dollari ichki qiyinchiliklar sharoitida ham mustahkam bo'lib qolmoqda. Hukumatning davom etayotgan yopilishiga va taxminlarga qaramay Federal rezerv stavkalarni qisqartirish - bozorlarda oktyabrda 25 bit/s qisqartirish ehtimoli 95% va dekabrda 84 foizga teng - dollar xavfsiz boshpana talabidan foyda olishda davom etmoqda.

DXY indeksi 98 dan yuqori bo'lib turibdi, bu bozorning AQSh aktivlari Yaponiyaga qaraganda barqarorroq qolayotgani haqidagi nuqtai nazarini aks ettiradi.

Natijada: hatto yumshatuvchi dollar ham yen nisbatan kuchli ko'rinadi, USD/JPY yaxshi qo'llab-quvvatlanadi ushlab turadi.

Bunga qadar Fed engillashishni tezlashtiradi yoki BoJ keskinlashadi, ikki iqtisodiyot o'rtasidagi hosil tafovut iyenaning zaifligini kuchaytirishda davom etadi.

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Trendni nima o'zgartirishi mumkin?

Bir nechta tetikleyiciler yenaning pasayishini teskari yoki sekinlashtirishi mumkin:

1. BoJ siyosatining aylanmasi: Ishonchli bayonot yoki kutilmagan darajaning ko'tarilishi bozorlarni zarba berishi va yenani ko'tarishi mumkin.
   
   
2. Muvofiqlashtirilgan aralashuv: Moliya vazirligi va BoJ hamkorlikdagi harakatlari keskinroq va davomiyroq tiklanishni keltirib chiqarishi mumkin.
   
   
3. Global xavf-xatarni bartaraf etish hodisasi: Katta tenglikni tuzatish yoki geosiyosiy alanglash xavfsiz boshpana talabini tiklashi mumkin.
   
   
4. AQSh stavkalarini tezroq pasaytirish: Dovish Fed rentabellik differentsiallarini qisqartirishi va USD/JPY momentumini qisqartirishi mumkin.
   
   

Biroq, ushbu katalizatorlardan biri bo'lmasdan, yenaning zaifligi davom etadigan ko'rinadi.

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USD JPY texnik tushunchalari: USD/JPY ko'zlari 155

Yozish vaqtida sotib olish bosimi kunlik grafikada yaqqol ko'rinadi, 152.36 atrofida narx kashfiyot rejimida juftlik bilan. Hajm ma'lumotlari xaridor hukmronligini ko'rsatadi va sotuvchilar hali tendentsiyaga qarshi chiqish uchun etarlicha ishonchni ko'rsatmagan.

Agar sotish bosimi kuchaysa, yenaning qaytishi 147.10 va 146.24 qo'llab-quvvatlash darajalariga qarab orqaga qaytishga olib kelishi mumkin. Biroq, agar oshish tezligi davom etsa, USD/JPY mitingini 155 ga qadar uzaytirishi mumkin, bu esa 2025 yil uchun potentsial yangi yuqori darajani belgilaydi.

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Texnik nuqtai nazar: Trend kuchayib bormoqda, ammo kuchayib bormoqda o'zgaruvchanlik yaqin aralashuv darajalari savdogarlar boshqarish kerak degan ma'noni anglatadi pozitsiya hajmi, margindan foydalanish, va quvvat ehtiyotkorlik bilan ta'sir qilish.

Savdogarlar ushbu USD/JPY darajalarini yordamida kuzatishlari mumkin MT5 derivatlari aniq kirish va chiqish vaqtlari uchun rivojlangan grafikalar vositalari.

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Yen investitsiyalarining oqibatlari

Savdogarlar uchun siyosatning farqlanishi USD/JPYni harakatlantiruvchi asosiy mavzu bo'lib qolmoqda.

• Qisqa muddatli strategiyalar: Dips bo'yicha sotib olish 151 qo'llab-quvvatlash sifatida ushlab turar ekan, qulay bo'lib qolishi mumkin, ammo savdogarlar Tokioning ritorikasini yaqindan kuzatib borishlari kerak.
  
  
• O'rta muddatli joylashish: Moslashuvchanlikni saqlash qulay bo'lishi mumkin - aralashuv yoki siyosat kutilmagan hodisalari keskin teskari o'zgarishlarni keltirib chiqarishi mumkin.
  
  
• Bozorlararo ta'sir: Tashish savdosining qaytishi FX-dan tashqariga cho'ziladi, bu esa arzon yen qarz olish orqali moliyalashtiriladigan global kapital va obligatsiyalar oqimlarini kuchaytiradi.

Bizning foreksimiz savdo kalkulyator maqbul pozitsiyani belgilashni, margin talablarini va tashish savdo strategiyalari uchun potentsial daromadlarni aniqlashga yordam berishi mumkin.

Yaponiya tez orada siyosatni keskinlashtirmasa, 2025 yil global yuk savdoning to'liq qaytishi va iyenaning uzoq muddatli zaifligini belgilashi mumkin.

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Oltin 4,000 dollarga yaqinlashmoqda, bir untsiya uchun 3,970 dollar atrofida savdo - tarixdagi eng yuqori darajasi. Bugungi kunga qadar 50 foizdan oshib borayotgan miting chuqurroq global tendentsiyani aks ettiradi: investorlar qog'oz puldan uzoqlashmoqda va aniq qiymatga qarab harakat qilmoqda. Markaziy banklardan xarid qilish, ETF oqimlari va aniq dollarizatsiyani kuchaytirish bilan oltin 2025 yilda yakuniy “ishonch xedjisi” ga aylandi.

Asosiy tushunchalar

• Oltin 50 foizga oshdi va 3,970 AQSh dollari/oz sonini sinovdan o'tkazdi, bu uning eng kuchli tugashi.
• Markaziy bank xaridlari: oyiga ~80 tonna (Butunjahon oltin kengashi, 2025).
• ETF oqimlari: 2025-yilning 1-o'rtog'ida +200 tonna (Bloomberg Financial LP).
• FedWatch tezligini kamaytirish ehtimoli: 94.6% (CME FedWatch Tool).
• UBS maqsadi: 4,200 dollar; Goldman Sachs: 2026 yilgacha 4,900 dollar.
• Ibratli mavzu: Dollarizatsiya va fiat pullariga ishonchning pasayishi.

Oltinning rekord mitingi - uni nima boshqarmoqda

Oltinning 2025 yilgi mitingi mart oyida boshlangan bo'lib, narxlar 3,000 dollar belgisini, keyin aprelda 3,500 dollarni, sentyabrga kelib esa 3,800 dollarni buzgan. Har bir ajralish izchil ETF oqimlari va markaziy bank talabi bilan qo'llab-quvvatlandi, ular birgalikda tarkibiy sotib olish bosimini yaratadi.

Bloomberg ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, oltin bilan qo'llab-quvvatlangan ETFlar 2025 yilning birinchi yarmida 200 tonnaga kengaygan - bu 2020 yildan beri eng katta sakrash. Savdogarlar, shuningdek, SPDR Gold Shares ETF ga nisbatan kuchayib, institutsional momentumni kuchaytirdilar.

Ayni paytda, past foiz stavkalari oltinni hosil beruvchi aktivlarga nisbatan yanada jozibador qildi. AQSh Federal zaxirasining sentyabr oyida 25 bit/s qisqartirilishi va oktyabrda boshqasi kutishi xavfsiz havfli aktivlarga bo'lgan dollar va yoqilg'iga bo'lgan talabni zaiflashtirishda davom etmoqda.

Markaziy bank oltin sotib olish: Dollarizatsiyaning oltinga ta'siri

Jahon oltin kengashi (WGC) ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, Osiyo, Yaqin Sharq va Lotin Amerikasi markaziy banklar rekord sur'atda oltin sotib olishmoqda — bu yil oyiga o'rtacha 80 tonna.

Goldman Sachs 2026 yilgacha markaziy bank talabi oyiga 70—80 tonna davom etishini taxmin qilmoqda, bu esa zaxiralarning AQSh dollaridan uzoq muddatli qayta muvozanatlashtirilishidan dalolat beradi.

Tanlangan markaziy banklar bo'yicha jami zaxira holdinglarining foizi sifatida oltin

Bu siljish dollarni kamaytirish tendentsiyasining bir qismini tashkil qiladi, chunki rivojlanayotgan iqtisodiyotlar fiskalga qarshi himoya qiladi o'zgaruvchanlik va geosiyosiy shoklar. G'arb institutsional investorlari global noaniqlik sharoitida oltindan barqarorlik langari sifatida foydalanmoqdalar.

JP Morganning ta'kidlashicha, CBlar so'nggi bir necha yil ichida oltin xoldinglarining nisbiy ulushini oshirgan yagona emas. Moliyaviy oltin bozorlarida investorlarning fyuchers joylashishi uzoq davom etadi, kelajakda narx qiymati ko'tarilishi kutilmoqda. COMEX oltindagi notijorat fyuchers va optsion long pozitsiyalari - metallar savdosi uchun birlamchi fyuchers va optsionlar bozori - 2024 yilda real jihatdan yangi yuqori darajaga erishdi.

Ibratli fon: bosim ostida ishonch

Sentabr oyida AQSh hukumatining yopilishi rasmiy iqtisodiy ma'lumotlarni to'xtatib, bozorlarni xususiy hisob-kitoblarga tayanishga majbur qildi. ABC News nashrining xabar berishicha, bu uzilish uzaytirilsa, 4-chorak YaIMdan 2.4 foiz punktgacha qisqartirishi mumkin.

Ma'lumotlarning to'xtab qolishi sharoitida Federal rezerv yanada noaniqlikka duch keladi, bu bozorlarni oltin kabi barqaror aktivlarni yoqtirishga undaydi.

Evropa va Osiyoda obligatsiyalarning yuqori rentabelligi, fiskal tanglik va siyosiy o'zgaruvchanlik oltin shunchaki inflyatsiya xedjisi emas, balki ishonch xedjisi ekanligi haqidagi rivoyatni yanada kuchaytirdi.

4000 dollar shipmi yoki shunchaki nazorat punktimi?

Tahlilchilar bo'lingan.

• UBS yil oxirigacha 4,200 dollar prognoz qilmoqda.
• Goldman Sachs 2026 yilgi maqsadini 4,900 dollarga oshirdi.

Texnik ma'lumotlar MT5 derivativ kuchli sotib olish hajmini ko'rsatadi, garchi yaqin muddatli 3,970—4,000 dollar atrofida mustahkamlash mumkin. Agar xaridorlar ushbu hududni ushlab tursalar, buzilish oltinni 4,200+ dollarga surib yuborishi mumkin. Qo'llab-quvvatlash darajalari 3,630 va 3,310 dollar darajasida mustahkam.

Oltin texnik darajalari (Deriv MT5 kunlik jadvali)

Qo'rquv savdosidan e'tiqod savdosigacha

Oltinning 2025 yilgi surilishi vahimaga reaktsiya emas - bu imonning qayta narxlanishi. Bir strateg aytganidek: “Bu inqirozli harakat emas. Bozor qog'ozli va'dalarning chegaralari borligini tan oladi”.

Doimiy inflyatsiya, o'sib borayotgan defitsit va geosiyosiy beqarorlik fiat tizimlariga bo'lgan ishonchni zaiflashtirdi. Oltin moliyaviy ishonchlilik uchun yangi mezonga aylandi, xavfsiz boshpana va strategik zaxira aktivi sifatida xizmat qiladi.

Derivda oltin bilan qanday savdo qilish kerak

1-qadam: Platformangizni tanlang

Savdo uslubingizga mos keladigan Deriv platformasini tanlang:

• MT5 derivativ - ilg'or grafikalar va professional tahlil vositalari bilan CFD-ga asoslangan EHM uchun.
• Deriv Trader - soddalashtirilgan, intuitiv interfeys bilan belgilangan vaqt savdolari uchun.
• CTrader derivativ - chuqur likvidlik, yuqori tezlikda bajarish va professional darajadagi buyurtmalarni boshqarish uchun.

2-qadam: Asbob turini tanlang

Savdo maqsadlaringizga mos keladigan mahsulotni tanlang:

• CFDlar (Contracts for Difference) — kaldıraç bilan oltin narxlari ko'tarilayotgan yoki tushayotgan savdo.
• Multiplikatorlar — kamchilikni cheklashda esa kichikroq kapital bilan kattaroq pozitsiyalarni nazorat qiladi.
• Ruxsat etilgan muddatli shartnomalar — oldindan belgilangan to'lovlar bilan qisqa muddatli narx harakatlari haqida spekulyatsiya qilish.

3-qadam: Xatarlarni boshqarishni qo'llang

Savdoga kirishdan oldin kapitalingizni himoya qiling:

• Stop-loss va foyda olish buyurtmalarini belgilang.
• Derivning yordamida xavf bag'rikengligingizga asoslangan pozitsiya hajmini hisoblang savdo kalkulyator.
• Jonli efirga chiqishdan oldin demo rejimida strategiyalarni mashq qiling.
  

4-qadam: Savdoingizni bajaring

Tayyorlangandan so'ng, oltin savdoingizni tanlagan Deriv platformasida joylashtiring. Ochiq pozitsiyalarni kuzatib boring, marginalardan foydalanishni ko'rib chiqing va narx harakatlari davom etayotganda buyurtmalarni sozlang.

Oltin texnik tushunchalari: Oltin qayerga ketadi?

Goldman Sachs 2026 yilning o'rtalariga kelib oltin untsiyasi uchun 4 ming dollarga, 2026 yil dekabriga kelib esa 4,900 dollarga yetishi mumkinligini loyihalaydi.

Boshqa tomondan, J.P.Morgan 2025 yilning 4-choragida oltin uchun untsiyasi uchun o'rtacha 3,675 dollarga, 2026-yilning 2-choragiga qadar 4,000 dollarga yaqinlashishini kutmoqda, bu asosan markaziy bank xaridlari va doimiy bozorning noaniqligi tufayli kelib chiqadi. E'tiborlisi, bullish tahlilchilari hozirgi tendentsiyalar davom etsa, 2030 yilgacha untsiya uchun 10 ming dollargacha narxlarni prognoz qilmoqdalar, garchi bu stsenariy davom etayotgan global iqtisodiy xiralikka va geosiyosiy beqarorlikka bog'liq.

Ba'zi texnik ko'rsatkichlar oltin “o'ta ortiqcha sotib olingan” hududda ekanligini ko'rsatadi, bu esa keyingi daromadlardan oldin qisqa muddatli narxlarni tuzatishni amalga oshiradi. Asosiy qoʻllab-quvvatlash darajalari hozir 3,800 dollardan yuqori, qarshilik 3,900 va 4,000 dollar atrofida, markaziy bank talabi sekinlashsa yoki geosiyosiy keskinliklar kamaysa, pasayish xavfi paydo boʻladi.