Precious metals are on fire, but not for the reasons markets usually assume. Data shows that Gold breaking above $4,500 an ounce, silver rising nearly 150% this year, and platinum posting one of the sharpest rallies in decades might resemble a textbook flight to safety. Yet, this surge is not being driven solely by panic, nor by a single macroeconomic trigger.

Instead, the metals complex is reacting to deeper fractures forming beneath the global economy. Monetary policy credibility is weakening, supply chains are tightening in unexpected places, and industrial demand is reshaping how scarcity is priced. Each metal is responding to a different pressure point, and together they are signalling something more structural than a short-lived risk-off move.

What’s driving the precious metals rally?

At the surface level, monetary policy has provided the spark. The US Federal Reserve has cut 75 basis points this year, with markets increasingly convinced that further easing will follow in 2026. 

Lower real yields have weakened the US dollar, which recently fell to a near three-month low, making dollar-priced metals more attractive to global buyers.

But rate cuts alone do not explain why silver and platinum are outperforming gold so dramatically. The difference this time lies in physical constraints. Silver has surged through the $70-per-ounce level amid persistent supply deficits and robust industrial demand from the solar energy, electronics, and electric vehicle sectors. Its inclusion on the US critical minerals list has reinforced the idea that silver shortages are structural rather than cyclical.

Platinum’s rally goes further still. The market is experiencing its third consecutive annual deficit, with shortfalls estimated at approximately 692,000 ounces, or nearly 9% of global demand. Above-ground inventories have fallen to about five months of consumption, the lowest since 2020. This is not speculative scarcity - it is measurable, physical tightness.

Why it matters

This rally is significant because it marks a shift in the valuation of precious metals. Analysts note that Gold remains a monetary hedge, reflecting concerns about central-bank independence, inflation credibility, and geopolitical stability. Ongoing tensions involving Venezuela, Russia, and global trade policy have reinforced its role as strategic insurance rather than a tactical trade.

Silver and platinum, however, are increasingly being priced as strategic resources. William Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, argues that platinum is now viewed “as both a precious metal and a strategic industrial asset”, a distinction that fundamentally alters its valuation framework. When metals are treated as inputs critical to energy transition, manufacturing, and emissions control, price sensitivity changes and volatility increase.

This shift also explains why pullbacks have been shallow. Investors are not merely chasing momentum; they are responding to tightening supply visibility and policy-driven demand that cannot be quickly substituted.

Impact on markets, industry, and investors

Platinum’s resurgence highlights how assumptions about electrification have been challenged. Expectations that electric vehicles would rapidly erode platinum demand have proven premature. 

Slower-than-expected EV adoption, combined with stricter emissions standards, has increased platinum loadings in catalytic converters rather than reduced them. Engineers have found that higher platinum content improves durability and performance, especially in heavy-duty and high-temperature environments.

Industrial demand is also broadening. Platinum plays a critical role in hydrogen fuel cells, chemical refining, and industrial decarbonisation. China’s approval of platinum and palladium futures contracts has reshaped global price discovery, with trading volumes on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange now influencing established Western benchmarks. 

For investors, this creates an unusual environment. Gold offers stability but limited upside in terms of scarcity, while silver and platinum carry higher volatility tied to industrial cycles and policy decisions. The rally is not uniform, and treating precious metals as a single asset class risks missing the underlying divergence.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts expect continued support for metals but warn that the drivers are becoming increasingly complex. Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodities specialist, points to the gold-to-silver ratio falling below 65 as evidence that markets are pricing aggressive rate cuts and stronger industrial demand simultaneously.

Gold’s outlook remains constructive, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a $4,900 base case for 2026, though gains may slow if inflation stabilises. Platinum’s trajectory is more sensitive to supply disruptions in South Africa and shifts in Chinese industrial demand. With production largely price-inelastic, even modest demand surprises could trigger further dislocations. The key risk is no longer oversupply, but rather the limited slack the system has left.

Key takeaway

The precious metals rally of 2025 is not a single story of fear or speculation. Gold reflects monetary unease, silver highlights industrial scarcity, and platinum exposes how fragile concentrated supply has become. Together, they point to a repricing of real-world constraints rather than a temporary risk-off trade. What happens next will depend on rates, inventories, and geopolitics - not sentiment alone.

Platinum technical insights

Platinum has surged into price discovery, with price riding the upper Bollinger Band, signalling aggressive upside momentum and strong breakout conditions. The sharp expansion of the bands highlights rising volatility, while pullbacks remain shallow, suggesting buyers are still in control.

On the downside, $1,620 is the first key support, followed by $1,525. A move back inside the Bollinger mid-band would increase the risk of a deeper correction, but for now, momentum remains firmly bullish. The RSI is rising sharply deep into overbought territory, reinforcing strength but also warning of potential short-term consolidation.

Global markets are pushing higher, and this rally is not built on sentiment alone. From record equity highs to surging commodities and a weaker US dollar, the underlying driver remains confidence in US economic fundamentals, with employment data at the centre of market expectations.

As investors position ahead of the next US jobs report, recent market moves suggest optimism that growth can remain resilient even as financial conditions continue to evolve.

What’s driving the Fed’s hawkish cut narrative?

According to analysts, markets are increasingly pricing a scenario where the US Federal Reserve can ease policy without destabilising the economy. Strong macro data, particularly labour market resilience, has given policymakers room to balance growth support with inflation control.

Rather than expecting aggressive rate cuts, investors are leaning toward a controlled easing path. This view has helped contain interest rate volatility, even as risk assets continue to rally.

Why it matters

Reports showed that US employment data is the foundation of this bull run. A strong jobs market supports:

• Consumer spending, the backbone of US growth
• Corporate earnings, sustaining equity valuations
• Business confidence and investment
• Risk appetite across global markets

As long as hiring remains resilient, markets have justification to push higher even while inflation pressures persist in parts of the economy.

Impact on markets, businesses, and consumers

Stocks: confidence at record highs

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record, led by growth stocks, which reflects optimism that earnings can remain durable in a stable growth environment. Investors are rewarding companies positioned to benefit from both economic resilience and technological investment.

Corporates & M&A: dealmakers stay busy

A bidding war involving Warner Bros highlights how hot the M&A market has become. Dealmakers don’t work through holidays - or pursue large acquisitions - unless balance sheets are healthy and future growth looks promising.

This wave of activity reinforces the notion that corporate America remains confident about the economic outlook.

Technology: AI demand remains intact

According to reports, Nvidia’s plan to begin H200 chip shipments to China by mid-February underlines continued demand for AI infrastructure. Despite regulatory uncertainty, capital spending linked to artificial intelligence remains a powerful growth driver - and markets are treating it as such.

Currencies: the dollar loses momentum

Data revealed the US dollar’s worst drop since 2017 reflects markets looking beyond peak rates and rotating toward risk assets, commodities, and non-USD exposure. As expectations shift from restrictive policy to gradual easing, the dollar has lost its yield advantage - reinforcing risk-on behaviour elsewhere.

Commodities are sending a parallel signal

Commodities aren’t just rising - they’re breaking records based on data.

• Gold above $4,500/oz for the first time
• Platinum above $2,300 on tight global supplies

Market watchers noted these moves suggest that investors are positioning for a world where growth remains robust, but inflation and supply chain risks haven’t disappeared. Metals are benefiting from a weaker dollar, as well as strategic hedging and strong underlying demand.

Expert outlook: All eyes on jobs

Markets are clearly positioned for continued economic resilience, but confirmation will come from upcoming US employment data.

Analysts highlighted that a strong jobs report would reinforce confidence in the current rally. A downside surprise, however, could force markets to reassess growth expectations and risk positioning.

Key takeaway

Experts expressed that this bull run is not driven by speculation.

It is being supported by US economic fundamentals, with employment data acting as the key anchor. The next jobs report will play a crucial role in determining whether markets can sustain momentum into the new year.

Let's analyse the EURUSD chart, which is among the most popular dollar pairs to trade.

EUR/USD technical insights

EUR/USD remains constructive, with price trading near the upper Bollinger Band, signalling strong upside momentum but increasingly stretched conditions. The widening bands indicate rising volatility, although price action suggests that bulls are still in control for now.

On the downside, 1.1700 is the first key support, followed by 1.1618 and 1.1490. A sustained move back inside the Bollinger mid-band would increase the risk of a deeper pullback. Momentum is elevated, with the RSI pushing sharply into overbought territory, warning that upside gains may slow without consolidation.

Gold is surging again; market data suggests investors are repositioning for a world defined by rising geopolitical risk and shifting monetary policy expectations. Spot prices have climbed back to record highs, surpassing $4,460 per ounce, and lifting year-to-date gains to around 70%, as markets respond to US actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and renewed uncertainty across global energy trade routes.

At the same time, analysts report that the outlook for US interest rates has turned decisively more supportive. With real yields falling to their lowest levels since mid-2022 and futures markets pricing in multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has dropped sharply. The question now is whether these forces are powerful enough to sustain the rally or whether gold is nearing a turning point.

What’s driving gold?

The immediate catalyst behind gold’s latest surge is a rise in geopolitical tension centred on Venezuela. The US Coast Guard recently seized a sanctioned supertanker carrying Venezuelan oil and attempted to intercept two additional vessels, one of which was reportedly bound for China. These actions have raised concerns about broader energy-market disruptions, even as Venezuela’s reduced output limits direct supply risks.

Market sensitivity to geopolitical shocks remains high, particularly when they involve strategic commodities and major trading partners. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a naval “blockade” targeting sanctioned tankers has reinforced uncertainty rather than delivered clarity. History shows that gold responds less to the scale of economic damage and more to the unpredictability such confrontations introduce into global markets.

Monetary conditions have added a second, equally important layer of support. US real interest rates - a key driver of gold demand - have slipped to levels last seen more than three years ago. 

According to futures pricing, traders continue to expect at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, following signs of labour-market cooling and easing inflation pressures. As yields fall, gold’s relative appeal increases, particularly for institutional investors seeking stability and diversification.

Why it matters

Gold’s rally matters because it reflects a broader reassessment of risk rather than a short-lived flight to safety. The metal has not only recovered from its late-October pullback but has reasserted itself as one of the strongest-performing assets of the year. UBS strategists note that bullion is now consolidating gains at record levels after a sharp advance, reinforcing its status as a core defensive holding.

This performance signals what many analysts interpret as deeper concerns about financial resilience. Persistent geopolitical flashpoints, uncertainty surrounding US monetary leadership, and growing skepticism towards long-term debt sustainability have prompted investors to shift towards assets perceived as politically neutral. Gold’s liquidity, global acceptance, and history as a store of value place it in a unique position when confidence in fiat systems begins to fray.

Impact on markets and investors

Institutional and central bank demand is reshaping the structure of the gold market. UBS estimates that central banks will purchase between 900 and 950 metric tonnes of gold this year, close to record levels. This steady accumulation has reduced downside volatility and helped establish a new price floor well above $4,300 per ounce.

Currency dynamics have further reinforced the trend. The US dollar has slipped towards one-week lows against major peers, making dollar-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. For investors outside the US, gold has served as both a hedge against currency weakness and protection against rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver’s parallel surge adds another dimension. Prices have climbed close to $70 per ounce after gaining roughly 140% this year, far outpacing gold. When both metals rally together, it often points to broad-based risk aversion combined with speculative participation, rather than a narrow defensive trade.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts broadly expect gold to consolidate rather than reverse sharply. UBS argues that prices are digesting gains after an aggressive move higher, supported by falling real yields and sustained institutional demand. The bank also highlights that gold has benefited from the US real interest rate dropping to its lowest level since mid-2022, reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

There are, however, risks to monitor. Any sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a resurgence in real yields could prompt short-term corrections. Even so, portfolio managers increasingly view pullbacks as opportunities rather than warning signs. With some forecasts pointing towards $5,000 per ounce in 2026, gold’s role as both a hedge and a strategic asset appears firmly re-established.

Key takeaway

Gold’s renewed surge appears to be driven by a rare convergence of geopolitical risk, falling real yields, and persistent institutional demand. Analysts suggest that the rally reflects strategic repositioning rather than fear-based buying. With central banks still accumulating and rate cuts firmly on the horizon, gold’s role in portfolios is evolving. Investors will be watching inflation data, Federal Reserve signals, and geopolitical developments for the next decisive catalyst.

Gold technical insights

Gold remains firmly bullish, with price breaking higher and pushing along the upper Bollinger Band, signalling strong upside momentum and increasingly FOMO-driven buying. The sharp expansion of the bands highlights rising volatility in favour of the bulls.

On the downside, $4,365 now serves as near-term resistance and a reaction zone, while $4,035 and $3,935 remain the key supports. A break below these levels would likely trigger sell-side liquidations, but for now, dips continue to attract buyers. Momentum is stretched, with the RSI rising sharply deeper into overbought territory, increasing the risk of a pause or shallow pullback.

Bitcoin’s struggle to hold above $90,000 is no longer just a question of volatility. After falling more than 22% in the fourth quarter, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is on course for its weakest year-end performance outside of major bear markets, according to CoinGlass data. 

Repeated rebounds have failed to gain traction, with price gains from Asian and European sessions fading once US markets open. Observers note that loss of momentum matters because it reflects more than short-term positioning. A mix of derivatives pressure, cooling institutional demand, and weakening on-chain signals suggests Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of fatigue.

 As record options expiries approach and demand indicators deteriorate, traders are being forced to reassess whether this is a consolidation or the early stages of a deeper downtrend.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s latest weakness?

Bitcoin’s recent slide below $88,000 during the US trading session reflects growing pressure from derivatives markets rather than sudden panic selling. 

Bitcoin’s weak year-end

Price action has become increasingly erratic between $85,000 and $90,000 as traders position ahead of a record $28.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring on Deribit. That figure represents more than half of the exchange’s total open interest, amplifying sensitivity around key strike levels. 

At the centre of that tension sits Bitcoin’s $96,000 “max pain” level, where option sellers benefit most, according to Deribit’s chief commercial officer Jean-David Pequignot. A heavy $1.2 billion cluster of put options at $85,000 adds downside gravitational pull if selling accelerates. While longer-dated call spreads still target $100,000 and above, short-term hedging costs have risen sharply, signalling defensive rather than speculative positioning.

Why it matters

This shift is significant because Bitcoin’s recent rally phases were driven by demand expansion, rather than mechanical supply events. On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that demand growth has been slipping below its long-term trend since early October, marking a transition from expansion to contraction. 

Historically, that pattern has coincided with major cycle inflection points rather than temporary pullbacks. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, describes the current rebound attempts as technical rather than structural. He argues that recent strength reflects exhaustion after weeks of selling, not renewed conviction. 

Sentiment indicators support that view, with the crypto Fear and Greed Index rising to 24 but remaining firmly in pessimistic territory.

Impact on the crypto market and traders

Market data shows that Bitcoin’s hesitation has rippled across the broader crypto market, keeping major tokens range-bound despite brief rallies. Ether, Solana, XRP, Cardano and Dogecoin have posted modest gains, yet none have broken decisively higher. 

The total crypto market capitalisation has reclaimed the $3 trillion mark, a level that has served as a battleground between buyers and sellers throughout the past month.

Beneath the surface, cracks are visible. According to market data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from aggressive accumulation to net selling, with holdings declining by roughly 24,000 BTC in late 2025. At the same time, long-term funding rates in perpetual futures have fallen to their lowest levels since late 2023, signalling waning appetite for leveraged long exposure.

Expert outlook: Consolidation or downtrend?

CryptoQuant analysts warn that Bitcoin may already be in a new downtrend, driven by demand exhaustion rather than macro shocks. The catalysts that powered the last expansion - spot ETF approvals, the US election outcome, and corporate treasury adoption - have largely been absorbed. Without fresh demand, price support has weakened, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to deeper pullbacks.

That does not eliminate the possibility of recovery. CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin cycles hinge on demand regeneration, not time-based events like halvings. If institutional flows stabilise and on-chain activity improves, a recovery later in 2026 remains plausible. Until then, the market faces a tug-of-war between six-figure forecasts and downside scenarios that place support closer to $70,000.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim $90,000 reflects deeper structural fatigue rather than short-term volatility. Cooling institutional flows, defensive derivatives positioning, and weakening on-chain demand suggest the market has entered a more cautious phase. While long-term optimism has not vanished, near-term risks remain skewed to the downside. Traders will be watching options expiry dynamics, ETF flows, and demand indicators closely for signs of a genuine trend shift.

Bitcoin technical insights

Bitcoin remains range-bound, with price capped below the $94,600 resistance level and trading near the middle-to-lower Bollinger Band, signalling weak upside momentum and a lack of strong buyer conviction. Previous attempts to reclaim higher levels have waned, maintaining the broader structure's corrective nature.

On the downside, $84,700 remains a critical support level, with a clean break likely to trigger sell-side liquidations. Momentum is softening, with the RSI dipping just below the midline, suggesting bearish pressure is gradually building rather than aggressively accelerating.

It is December 2025. The Fed has just cut interest rates for the third time, but the S&P 500 is stumbling. Traders are asking one question: Is the holiday party cancelled? 

Every year around this time, Wall Street turns its attention to one of the market’s most festive - and oddly persistent - seasonal patterns: the Santa Claus rally. It’s a short window, steeped in market folklore, that has a habit of stirring optimism just as liquidity thins and investors close the books on the year.

But with economic data softening and equity leadership narrowing, Santa’s arrival this year feels less certain.

What is the Santa Claus rally?

The Santa Claus rally refers to a seven-trading-day period covering the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanack, this window has delivered an average gain of around 1.2–1.3% for the S&P 500 since 1950 - a stronger return than the average for most months of the year.

The pattern was first identified in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Almanac, and has since become a closely watched seasonal tendency rather than a guaranteed outcome. 

In 2025, the Santa Claus rally window runs from Wednesday, 24 December, through Monday, 5 January.

Why markets often rally at year-end

There’s no single reason behind the Santa Claus rally, but several forces tend to align at the same time:

• Holiday optimism improves investor sentiment
• Year-end bonuses flow into financial markets
• Tax-loss selling fades, reducing downward pressure
• Institutional investors step back, leaving lighter volumes
• Expectations reinforce behaviour, creating a self-fulfilling effect

With thinner liquidity, even modest buying can have a disproportionately large impact - particularly in major indices.

When Santa doesn’t show, bears sometimes do

The Santa Claus rally carries an outsized reputation because of what it’s thought to signal when it fails.

An old Wall Street saying warns:

“If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

History suggests the relationship is far from perfect. Since 1969, there have been 14 years when the S&P 500 delivered negative returns during the Santa window. In those cases, the market finished the following year lower only four times, making the indicator more of a sentiment gauge than a forecasting tool.

Still, the rally itself has shown up around 76% of the time since 2000, far better odds than a random seven-day trading period.

This year’s backdrop is unusually mixed.

On one hand, US jobs data has softened, hinting that economic momentum may be slowing. Market gains remain heavily concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, increasing the risk of sharper pullbacks if sentiment shifts.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is firmly in easing mode.

With three rate cuts already delivered and futures markets pricing in at least two more in 2026, financial conditions are becoming increasingly loose. History shows that betting against the Fed is rarely a winning strategy, particularly during periods of low liquidity, such as year-end.

That monetary tailwind could be enough to support a late-year lift - even if confidence remains fragile.

Santa is festive, not flawless

Seasonality is helpful, but it isn’t destiny.

The Santa Claus rally failed to materialise in 2023 and 2024, and last year the S&P 500 slipped during the festive window. In contrast, from 2016 to 2022, the market experienced growth every year, with gains exceeding 1% in several instances.

Even in years when the broader market finished lower, the Santa window often still delivered gains. In down years since 1969, the median Santa rally return was roughly 1.3%, despite double-digit declines over the full year.

In short, Santa may be unreliable - but historically, he’s turned up more often than not.

One asset to watch: Gold

While the Santa Claus rally traditionally focuses on equities, gold may be the more interesting asset to watch this year. According to analysts, rate cuts tend to compress real yields and soften the US dollar, two conditions that have historically supported gold prices. With the Fed easing and inflation risks still lingering beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is quietly becoming more favourable for the yellow metal.

From a technical perspective, gold has shown resilience rather than weakness. Prices have held above key medium-term support levels despite equity volatility, suggesting that dips continue to attract buyers rather than trigger panic selling.

If risk sentiment improves into year-end, gold could grind higher alongside equities. If equities falter or volatility spikes, gold may benefit from defensive flows instead. Either way, it provides traders with a means to express the same macro view without relying solely on stock market direction.

So is Wall Street getting a gift or the Grinch?

That remains the question.

The Santa Claus rally is not a crystal ball, and it won’t erase concerns around slowing growth, valuation, or market concentration. But history suggests that dismissing it entirely has often been costly.

With the Fed easing, liquidity thinning, and sentiment delicately balanced, analysts expressed the odds still lean towards a late-year move - even if it proves short-lived. Whether Wall Street unwraps a gift or gets a lump of coal, Santa’s window is open - and the market is watching closely.

Expert outlook: Why gold may steal Santa’s spotlight

While equity investors debate whether Santa shows up, gold may not need the invitation. Easing monetary policy, softer real yields, and ongoing macro uncertainty create a backdrop where gold can perform regardless of whether equities rally or retreat. Year-end liquidity conditions may further amplify market movements, particularly if US dollar volatility increases.

For traders, the focus remains on:

• Key support zones near recent breakouts
• RSI holding above neutral, signalling trend stability
• US dollar direction during thin holiday trading
• Gold doesn’t rely on festive optimism - it thrives on uncertainty.

Key takeaway

The Santa Claus rally is a seasonal tendency, not a promise. This year, its fate rests on the balance between easing monetary policy and fragile market confidence. Market watchers highlighted that if equities rally, it could reinforce bullish momentum into early January. If they don’t, assets like gold may take centre stage as investors turn defensive. Either way, year-end is shaping up to be less about blind optimism and more about positioning, selectivity, and risk management.

Gold technical insights

Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with price trading near the upper Bollinger Band, signalling sustained upside momentum but also increasing the risk of short-term consolidation. The steady expansion of the bands suggests volatility remains supportive of the broader uptrend.

On the downside, $4,035 is the first key support, followed by $3,935, where a break could trigger sell-side liquidations and a deeper corrective move. Momentum remains elevated, with the RSI rising into overbought territory, indicating strength but also warning that upside gains may slow without a pullback.

On 22 December 2025, a remarkable event occurred in global commodity markets: an ounce of silver traded at approximately $67-68 per troy ounce, surpassing the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which was hovering around $56-57, according to reports. 

Brent crude, the international benchmark, was slightly higher at about $60-61, but the core message remained the same-one ounce of the white metal was worth more than 42 gallons of black gold.

This inversion hasn’t occurred in over four decades, with the last comparable episode tracing back to the volatile commodity boom of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Back then, a speculative frenzy briefly pushed silver prices high enough to surpass those of oil. Today, the crossover, first achieved earlier in 2025 when silver broke $54 while oil lingered in the $65-75 range, feels more structural than speculative. Analysts are calling it a "defining moment" for 2025, reflecting profound changes in how the world values energy and materials.

What’s fueling silver’s explosive rally

Silver has delivered one of its most dramatic years on record, surging roughly 127-130% year-to-date to all-time highs above $67, based on data. This outpaces gold's strong ~60-65% gain, underscoring silver's unique dual role as both a monetary hedge and an industrial powerhouse.

The rally is rooted in tight physical supply and exploding demand. Reports showed that global silver mine production has stagnated, while recycling can't bridge the gap, leading to persistent market deficits-projected at 95–149 million ounces for 2025 alone, marking a fifth straight year of shortfalls. Cumulative deficits since 2021 now exceed 800 million ounces, draining inventories to multi-decade lows.

Industrial consumption, which accounts for over 60% of demand, is the real accelerator. Silver's unmatched electrical conductivity makes it irreplaceable in green technologies:

- Solar energy: Photovoltaic panels consumed over 200 million ounces in recent years, with demand up sharply as global installations boom. Each panel uses 15-25 grams of silver, and ambitious targets (e.g., EU's 700 GW by 2030) promise sustained growth.

- Electric vehicles (EVs): A typical EV requires 25-50 grams of silver-double that of traditional cars—for batteries, electronics, and charging infrastructure. Automotive demand is forecast to grow at 3-4% annually through 2031.

- Electronics and AI: Data centers, 5G networks, and semiconductors add further pull, with AI-driven power needs amplifying usage.

In other reports, macro tailwinds have amplified the move: Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations (pricing in further easing amid cooling inflation and rising unemployment to 4.6%), a weaker U.S. dollar (down ~8–9% YTD), and safe-haven flows amid geopolitical uncertainty. Silver's addition to the U.S. critical minerals list has drawn institutional interest, viewing it as a strategic play on the energy transition.

Why oil is struggling to keep up

In stark contrast, crude oil has had a brutal 2025, with WTI down 18-20% YTD-on track for its worst annual performance since the 2020 pandemic crash. Prices dipped to near five-year lows before modest rebounds on events like U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan tankers.

The culprit? Chronic oversupply, according to experts. Non-OPEC+ producers (led by U.S. shale at a record of ~13.5–13.8 million bpd, with growth also from Brazil and Guyana) have flooded the market. OPEC+ has gradually unwound its voluntary cuts, adding hundreds of thousands of barrels daily, while global inventories are building aggressively. Crude oil inventories have risen sharply since the summer.

Demand growth has disappointed, particularly in China (despite stockpiling) and softening in Europe/U.S. amid efficiency gains and slower economic momentum. Forecasts indicate that surpluses will persist into 2026, with Brent potentially averaging $55 or lower if inventories continue to rise.

Geopolitical flare-ups provide brief lifts, but they’ve failed to reverse the downtrend in a well-supplied world.

Why this inversion matters: A window into global shifts

This silver-over-oil moment isn’t just a quirky headline - it’s a barometer for deeper transformations.

It highlights the energy transition in action: Markets are rewarding commodities tied to decarbonization (solar, EVs, renewables) while discounting legacy fossil fuels. Silver, dubbed the "new energy metal," embodies the rise of green technology, while oil grapples with peak demand narratives and abundant supply.

According to experts, the sharply compressing gold-silver ratio (down to ~70:1 from over 100:1) indicates that traders are banking on silver's industrial upside, alongside its monetary appeal, in an era of easing policy and inflation vigilance.

Historically, such extremes echo the spikes of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation and commodity booms drove wild swings. Today’s rally feels more fundamentals-driven, but history warns of volatility - parabolic moves often precede sharp corrections.

For investors, this flips the script on commodities: What was once the "king" (oil) now lags a metal long seen as secondary. Portfolios tilted toward transition themes may benefit, but risks remain-economic slowdowns could crimp industrial demand, while OPEC+ discipline (or lack thereof) could swing oil prices.

Looking ahead: Boom, bust, or new normal?

Silver’s trajectory points higher if deficits persist and green demand accelerates-some analysts eye $70–$75 by late 2026. Yet overbought technicals and holiday-thin liquidity invite pullbacks.

Oil prices could stabilise if OPEC+ reins in output or demand surprises to the upside, but oversupply forecasts suggest prolonged pressure. Ultimately, 22 December 2025, marks more than a price crossover; it's a signal that the global economy is rewiring itself around sustainability, technology, and resilience. In this new era, an ounce of silver might just shine brighter than a barrel of oil for years to come.

Technical insights

Silver remains firmly bullish, with price hugging the upper Bollinger Band, signalling strong upside momentum but also stretched conditions. The steep slope of the bands highlights persistent buying pressure, though near-term consolidation cannot be ruled out.

On the downside, $57.00 is the first key support, followed by $50.00 and $46.93. A break below these levels would likely trigger sell-side liquidations and a deeper corrective move. Momentum remains elevated, with the RSI flat well into overbought territory, reinforcing strength but warning that upside gains may slow without a reset.

US oil remains under near-term pressure, with price trading below the $60.00–$61.10 resistance zone and capped by the upper Bollinger Band. The broader structure still indicates a corrective phase, although the selling momentum has started to slow.

On the downside, $55.40 is the key support, where a break would likely trigger sell-side liquidations. Momentum is attempting to stabilise, with the RSI rising slowly from oversold levels towards the midline, suggesting downside momentum is easing but lacking clear bullish conviction.

Bitcoin’s latest move higher is being driven by macro forces, not crypto-native hype, according to analysts. A softer US inflation print, easing global financial conditions, and a well-telegraphed Bank of Japan rate hike have combined to lift risk assets across the board. 

Bitcoin surged above $87,000 during Asia trading, while ether and major altcoins followed, as markets concluded that monetary conditions remain accommodative despite the tightening of headline rates.

What makes this rally different is what sits beneath it. As macro relief lifts prices, Bitcoin is simultaneously being absorbed into the banking system. Nearly 60% of the largest US banks are now preparing to sell, custody, or advise on Bitcoin directly, signalling that crypto’s next phase is not about discovery, but normalisation.

What’s driving the crypto rally?

The immediate catalyst came from central banks, not blockchains. Japan’s central bank raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years, pushing 10-year government bond yields briefly to 2% for the first time since 2006. 

Instead of triggering a risk-off shock, the move was absorbed smoothly. The yen weakened, Asian equities rose, and global markets treated the decision as confirmation that real rates remain negative and liquidity intact.

At the same time, US inflation data surprised to the downside, reviving expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates in the coming months. 

That combination eased financial conditions and restored appetite for risk assets, including crypto. Bitcoin and ether pushed through key technical levels, while broader crypto markets advanced even as leverage-driven liquidations cleared crowded positioning.

This macro-led relief rally is significant because it reframes the role of crypto. Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a global liquidity barometer rather than a standalone speculative asset, responding to the same forces that drive equities, currencies, and credit.

Why Bitcoin is entering the banking system now

While prices react to macro signals, the structural story is unfolding more quietly. For years, US banks treated Bitcoin as something to observe rather than offer. Capital rules, custody concerns, and reputational risk kept crypto outside core banking systems. That posture is now shifting.

According to data from River, nearly 60% of the 25 largest US banks are on a path to offering Bitcoin services, whether through trading, custody, or advisory products. 

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 marked a turning point. They allowed banks to meet client demand inside familiar regulatory wrappers while outsourcing operational complexity. Crucially, ETF flows moved sharply in both directions without breaking market plumbing, giving risk committees confidence that Bitcoin’s volatility could be managed within existing frameworks.

The next step is direct exposure. Banks are beginning to allow select clients to hold and trade Bitcoin on the same platforms they already use for equities and foreign exchange, transforming crypto from a fringe allocation into a routine line item.

How banks are doing it without owning the risk

Rather than build crypto infrastructure from scratch, banks are adopting white-label models. PNC’s private bank provides a clear example. Instead of launching its own exchange, it uses Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service platform, retaining control of client relationships, compliance, and reporting while outsourcing trading and key management.

This approach has been reinforced by regulatory clarity. Recent guidance from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allows national banks to treat crypto trades as riskless principal transactions, buying from a liquidity provider and selling to clients almost simultaneously. That structure reduces balance-sheet exposure and allows Bitcoin desks to sit alongside foreign exchange or fixed-income operations.

The result is cautious but deliberate expansion. Banks are starting with sophisticated clients and tight controls. Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley are targeting the first half of 2026 for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading on self-directed platforms, with allocation caps and conservative eligibility screens expected to limit early access.

What this means for crypto markets

According to analysts, as Bitcoin moves deeper into regulated wealth platforms, market behaviour is beginning to diverge. Bitcoin is increasingly capturing institutional demand, while altcoins remain more sensitive to changes in liquidity and leverage. Recent price action reflects that split. Bitcoin pushed higher on macro relief, while tokens such as XRP struggled to reclaim key levels despite elevated trading volumes, suggesting distribution rather than panic selling.

ETF flows are reinforcing this dynamic. Bitwise estimates that Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed nearly twice the amount of BTC mined since their launch, and expects ETFs to buy more than 100% of annual new supply across major assets going forward. As institutional ownership broadens, Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to fall, potentially below that of mega-cap technology stocks, as its investor base becomes more stable.

This does not eliminate risk. Most banks rely on a small group of cryptocurrency infrastructure providers, creating operational concentration. A major outage or enforcement action would ripple through multiple institutions at once. Even so, the direction of travel is clear: Bitcoin exposure is becoming institutional by default.

Expert outlook

Arthur Hayes has framed this shift in overtly macro terms, arguing that persistent negative real rates in Japan could drive capital into Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. His projection of a $1 million Bitcoin price is extreme, but it underscores how Bitcoin is now discussed through the lens of global monetary policy rather than technological novelty.

More measured forecasts point to a quieter transformation. Bitwise argues the traditional four-year crypto cycle is fading as ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption overpower halving-driven dynamics. On-chain data from K33 Research suggests long-term Bitcoin holders are nearing the end of a multi-year distribution phase, removing a key source of selling pressure.

The next test will come from liquidity. If macro conditions remain supportive, Bitcoin’s integration into banking systems could stabilise demand. If conditions tighten abruptly, the new plumbing will be subjected to stress testing.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s latest rally is being driven by macroeconomic relief, but its foundation remains structural. As central banks ease financial conditions, US banks are embedding Bitcoin into wealth platforms, custody services, and advisory models. This combination is shifting Bitcoin from an exception to a standard financial product. The next phase will be defined less by price targets and more by how smoothly crypto integrates into the machinery of mainstream finance.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin is consolidating close to the lower Bollinger Band, a configuration that reflects persistent downside pressure while also increasing the probability of short-term stabilisation. This type of compression often precedes a volatility expansion, particularly when macro-driven flows remain active. On Deriv MT5, this range-bound behaviour is clearly visible as price action tightens after recent liquidation-driven swings.

Upside attempts continue to stall below the $94,600 zone, which remains a well-defined resistance level where previous rebounds have failed. Until price reclaims that area with volume, recovery moves are likely to be tactical rather than trend-defining. On the downside, $84,700 stands out as a critical support. A decisive break below this level would likely accelerate sell-side liquidations, especially given the elevated leverage still present across crypto derivatives markets.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The RSI has begun to edge higher but remains below the midpoint, signalling that buyers are probing rather than committing. For traders assessing position sizing and risk around these levels, tools such as the Deriv trading calculator can help quantify margin requirements and potential exposure, particularly in an environment where technical levels and macro headlines are interacting closely.

Metals are surging again because investors are grappling with a Federal Reserve that is signalling caution rather than conviction. November’s US labour data showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, while job creation slowed sharply compared with earlier in the year. Yet inflation remains elevated enough to keep policymakers hesitant. That mix of slowing growth and unresolved price pressures has reignited demand for precious metals as a hedge against policy uncertainty.

Silver’s rally to record highs near $66.50 per ounce and platinum’s sharp breakout above long-term resistance reflect more than speculative enthusiasm. Markets are increasingly pricing US rate cuts in 2026, real yields are drifting lower, and physical supply constraints are tightening. With investors awaiting fresh inflation signals from the Consumer Price Index, metals have once again become a barometer of confidence in the global monetary outlook.

What’s driving the metals rally?

The immediate catalyst behind the renewed surge in metals is uncertainty over the direction and timing of US monetary policy. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report confirmed that the labour market is cooling, but not collapsing. Payrolls grew by only 64,000 in November, while prior months were revised lower, reinforcing the idea that economic momentum is fading. 

At the same time, inflation has not slowed quickly enough to give the Fed room for decisive easing. That ambiguity has left markets in limbo. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that US borrowing costs could eventually be up to one percentage point lower if the labour market softens, prompting traders to price in two rate cuts in 2026. Lower expected rates tend to weaken real yields, which directly improves the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Supply dynamics are amplifying the move. Silver is heading into its fifth consecutive annual market deficit, driven by robust industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centres. Inventories are already tight, meaning that even modest shifts in investment flows can have a significant impact on prices.

Why it matters

The rally in metals matters because it reflects a deeper re-pricing of risk across financial markets, according to analysts. Investors are no longer positioning themselves purely for growth or recession, but rather for a prolonged period of economic uncertainty where inflation, interest rates, and growth fail to move in tandem. In that environment, metals regain their traditional role as stores of value rather than being used as tactical trades.

Platinum’s resurgence is particularly revealing. Often overshadowed by gold and silver, platinum is now benefiting from structural supply shortages. The World Platinum Investment Council expects a deficit of several hundred thousand ounces in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of undersupply. 

As one market analyst observed, “low elasticity in recycling, limited reinvestment at the mine level, and persistent production constraints are making future supply risks harder to ignore.” This suggests the current move resembles a re-rating rather than a short-lived spike.

Impact on markets and investors

For investors, the metals rally is reshaping portfolio dynamics. Gold continues to anchor defensive allocations, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver, however, has taken on a more complex role. Its price now reflects both safe-haven demand and expectations that industrial consumption will remain resilient even if global growth slows.

Platinum’s advance adds another layer to the story. South Africa, which accounts for between 70% and 80% of global platinum production, has faced repeated mining disruptions that have constrained output. At the same time, exports to China have been strong, and the launch of platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased confidence in long-term demand from Asia.

There are also signs of stress in physical markets. Financial institutions have reportedly been moving metal inventories to the United States to hedge against tariff risks, while the London market is showing signs of tightening. These shifts underscore the growing influence of geopolitical fragmentation and supply-chain security on commodity pricing.

Expert outlook

Looking beyond the near-term data cycle, Deriv expert Vince Stanzione argues that the broader bull case for precious metals remains firmly intact as we head into 2026. 

After what he describes as a “blockbuster” 2025 - with gold rising roughly 60% to around $4,200 per ounce and silver gaining close to 80% on strong industrial demand - momentum has carried into the new year. In his view, the rally is unlikely to repeat those extremes, but still has room to run.

Stanzione forecasts further double-digit gains, projecting gold to rise 20-25% and silver 25-30% in 2026, comfortably outperforming equities, where expected returns for the S&P 500 sit closer to 3-5% as valuations stretch. He cautions that sharp pullbacks are likely along the way, but stresses that the dominant trend remains upward as investors continue to seek protection from policy uncertainty and currency debasement.

The structural case rests heavily on central bank behaviour. According to Stanzione, official institutions added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold to reserves in 2025, led by the People’s Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of India, with a further 800-900 tonnes potentially coming in 2026 as diversification away from the US dollar accelerates. China alone has experienced a steady thirteen-month buying streak since late 2022, followed by a brief pause in May 2024.

Silver’s outlook is reinforced by its dual role as a monetary hedge and industrial input, with demand from solar panels and electric vehicles expected to outpace mined supply, further tightening inventories.

Stanzione also highlights gold miners as a leveraged way to express the metals theme. Despite a strong 2025, valuations remain compressed. Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold producer, trades on a forward price-to-earnings ratio well below the broader market, supported by low production costs and strong free cash flow. 

Historically, he notes, a 10% move in gold prices has translated into roughly 25-30% earnings growth for miners, although risks such as a stronger US dollar or weaker Chinese demand could temper gains.

Monthly price chart of Newmont Corporation (NEM) from 1997 to November 2025

On platinum and palladium, Stanzione remains constructive but selective. Both metals experienced solid gains in 2025 and benefited from industrial demand, particularly in catalytic converters, yet remain well below their previous peaks. While smaller and more volatile than gold and silver, they remain worth monitoring as potential catch-up trades if supply constraints persist. To read more on how to trade commodities, read this free ebook exclusively published by Deriv.

Key takeaway

Metals are surging again because markets are adjusting to a world where monetary policy clarity is absent and economic risks are uneven. Silver’s record highs and platinum’s rapid catch-up point to tightening supply and renewed defensive positioning. With inflation data and Fed signals still pulling markets in different directions, metals remain a critical hedge and indicator. The next CPI release may shape short-term price action, but the broader trend appears increasingly durable.

Silver technical insights

Silver remains firmly in an uptrend, with price holding near the upper Bollinger Band, signalling strong bullish momentum. However, the RSI has pushed well into overbought territory, increasing the risk of short-term consolidation or profit-taking.

On the downside, $50.00 is the first key support, followed by $46.93, where a break could trigger sell-side liquidations and a deeper corrective move. As long as silver holds above $50, the broader bullish structure remains intact, though upside gains may slow without a pullback.

Tesla’s share price has pushed into record territory, but the foundations supporting that rally look increasingly unstable. Despite the stock climbing more than 20% this year, the company’s core electric vehicle business is shrinking, margins remain under pressure, and regulatory risks are rising rather than fading, according to reports.

The latest warning comes from California, where regulators are threatening a 30-day sales ban unless Tesla changes how it markets Autopilot and Full Self-Driving. At the same time, investors are valuing Tesla less like a carmaker and more like an AI and robotics company. That disconnect explains the rally - and why it may prove difficult to sustain.

What’s driving Tesla’s record high?

Analysts expressed that Tesla’s surge is being driven by belief, not balance sheets. Investors are once again buying into Elon Musk’s long-promised vision that Tesla will reinvent itself as a robotaxi and robotics platform. That optimism flared after Musk said Tesla has been testing fully driverless vehicles in Austin without safety drivers, a step bulls see as the beginning of large-scale autonomy.

Crucially, this enthusiasm has emerged even as Tesla’s underlying business is weakening. CNBC reported vehicle deliveries fell 13% in the first quarter, while automotive revenue dropped 20%. Sales stabilised briefly in the third quarter as US buyers rushed to secure expiring tax credits, but momentum faded once incentives disappeared. The stock, however, continued to climb - a sign that the market is pricing Tesla for what it hopes the company will become, not what it currently is.

Why it matters

California’s intervention strikes directly at that hope-driven valuation, according to analysts. The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles ruled that Tesla misled consumers by using terms such as “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving Capability” for systems that are not autonomous. Tesla now has 60 days to change its language or face a temporary suspension of sales in the state.

For investors, this is more than a branding dispute. California is Tesla’s largest US market and home to one of its factories. More importantly, regulatory credibility underpins Tesla’s entire autonomy narrative. According to one US auto analyst, “You cannot build a trillion-dollar autonomy business while regulators are questioning whether your product does what it says on the tin.”

Impact on the EV and AI trade

The regulatory pressure comes as Tesla faces intensifying competition and fading pricing power. CNBC reported that cheaper EVs from BYD and Xiaomi in China, alongside stronger European offerings from Volkswagen, are putting pressure on demand. In the US, stripped-down versions of the Model 3 and Model Y have cannibalised higher-margin models, pushing November sales to a four-year low.

In other news, Tesla’s stock also trades increasingly in lockstep with the broader AI sector. This week’s pullback followed weakness across AI-linked stocks after delays in Oracle’s massive data-centre financing raised concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure spending. That linkage makes Tesla more vulnerable to shifts in AI sentiment, even when its own fundamentals remain unchanged.

Expert outlook

Wall Street remains divided. Mizuho recently raised its price target on Tesla to $530, citing improvements in Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as a potential driver of robotaxi expansion in Austin and San Francisco. Bulls believe Tesla’s camera-only approach will scale faster and cheaper than rivals relying on lidar.

Sceptics see mounting legal and regulatory risks. Federal safety agencies continue to investigate crashes linked to Autopilot, while a Florida jury recently ordered Tesla to pay $329 million in damages following a fatal 2019 accident. Meanwhile, rivals such as Nissan, working with Nvidia-backed Wayve, are targeting similar driver-assist capabilities at half Tesla’s price. The technological lead Tesla once enjoyed is narrowing.

Key takeaway

Market watchers noted Tesla’s record high reflects belief in a future that has yet to arrive. Robotaxi optimism is masking weakening EV fundamentals and rising regulatory risk. California’s warning highlights how fragile that narrative has become. Investors should monitor regulatory outcomes, progress on real-world autonomy, and whether revenues can begin to justify the valuation.

Tesla technical insights

Tesla’s daily chart shows price consolidating just below a key $474 resistance zone, an area that has repeatedly capped upside moves. The recent rejection from this level suggests near-term profit-taking, although sustained buying above $474 would open the door for another momentum-driven push higher.

On the downside, $440 remains the first critical support, followed by $420 and the broader $400 demand zone. A clean break below $440 would likely trigger sell-side liquidity, increasing the risk of a deeper pullback towards these lower levels.

Momentum indicators suggest a market that is strong but overextended. The RSI is flattening just below the 70 mark, signalling bullish momentum is intact, but also warning that upside may be limited without fresh catalysts. This setup favours range-bound price action in the short term unless bulls can reclaim and hold above resistance.