Bitcoin is down just over 1% over the past 24 hours, but the real story sits beneath the surface. Over the weekend, the price came within a hair’s breadth of confirming a bearish breakdown near $86,000 before rebounding, leaving the market in a fragile holding pattern rather than a clear recovery.

That rebound coincided with a sharp slowdown in on-chain selling, yet institutional demand remains notably absent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed more than $1.7 billion since mid-January, while global markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s next policy signal. With volatility rising across assets, Bitcoin is now approaching a moment that could define its short-term direction.

What’s driving Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s latest move has been shaped by a technical structure that has been building quietly for weeks. On the daily chart, BTC remains within a head-and-shoulders pattern, a formation that often precedes trend reversals when confirmed. 

While the bounce prevented an immediate breakdown, the structure itself remains intact, keeping downside risk alive.

What changed over the weekend was the intensity of selling. On-chain data shows a sharp drop in coin movement across all holding ages. The Spent Coins Age Band metric fell from roughly 27,000 to just under 7,700, a decline of more than 70%. 

When fewer coins move, fewer holders are actively selling, and that reduction in supply pressure explains why Bitcoin stabilised rather than slipping straight through support. Still, easing sell pressure does not automatically translate into renewed demand.

Why it matters

The missing piece is institutional participation, and ETF flows make that gap difficult to ignore. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted several consecutive sessions of net outflows, with more than $100 million leaving the products on 23 January alone and roughly $1.33 billion exiting over the past week. 

These funds have become a key entry route for large portfolios, making their behaviour a critical barometer of conviction, according to analysts.

Analysts caution that price rebounds unsupported by ETF inflows often struggle to extend. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has pointed out that sustained redemptions usually reflect hedge funds pulling back from the Bitcoin basis trade as returns compress. Data from Amberdata shows those yields have dropped below 5%, down sharply from around 17% a year ago, reducing the incentive for institutional positioning.

Impact on the crypto market

Bitcoin’s hesitation has rippled across the broader crypto market. Ether fell more than 7% over the past 24 hours, sliding back below the $3,000 level for the first time since early January. Altcoins have fared even worse, with capital rotating defensively into Bitcoin despite its own weakness. As a result, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to nearly 60%, highlighting how risk aversion tends to consolidate liquidity into the largest asset.

That defensive shift mirrors moves in traditional markets. Global equities weakened as Japan’s government bond market showed signs of stress and renewed U.S. tariff threats weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq fell close to 2%, while Germany’s DAX slipped more than 1%. In contrast, traditional safe havens surged, with gold rising by more than 3% and silver rallying by 7% to fresh record highs. In this environment, crypto has traded firmly as a risk asset rather than a hedge.

Expert outlook

The immediate focus now turns to macro policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, with CME FedWatch placing the probability of a cut below 3%. 

Markets will instead scrutinise Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for any shift in tone, especially after delays to key U.S. GDP and consumption data have added uncertainty to the growth outlook.

For traders, ETF flows remain the most important near-term signal. “Volatility is back, and bitcoin is moving in line with risk assets again,” said Paul Howard of trading firm Wincent, adding that altcoins are likely to remain under pressure if macro stress persists. A sustained move back above $90,000 could stabilise sentiment, but failure to reclaim that level leaves Bitcoin exposed to another test of support.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s recent bounce reflects fading selling pressure rather than a clear return of buyers. With ETF outflows persisting and macro risks rising, the market is entering a decisive phase. How Bitcoin responds around key levels, alongside signals from the Federal Reserve and daily ETF flows, will shape the next move. For now, stability remains conditional rather than assured.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin continues to consolidate following its earlier correction from highs, with price remaining contained within a broad range and trading below the mid-area of the Bollinger Bands. The bands have narrowed compared with prior periods, indicating reduced volatility and a slowdown in directional momentum. 

Momentum indicators reflect this stabilisation phase, with the RSI rising gradually but remaining below the midline, pointing to subdued upside momentum relative to earlier phases. Trend strength remains elevated, as shown by a high ADX reading, although directional indicators suggest the trend is no longer accelerating. 

Structurally, price continues to oscillate between the previously established zones around $84,700 on the lower end and the former resistance areas near $104,000 and $114,000 on the upper end, highlighting a market environment characterised by balance rather than active price discovery.

US stocks enter a critical stretch as the Q4 earnings season accelerates, with more than 300 companies reporting this week, including four members of the Magnificent 7. Together, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple represent a substantial share of S&P 500 earnings power, yet the group has lagged the broader index over the past year, rising just 8.9% versus stronger gains elsewhere.

That underperformance has sharpened investor focus. With artificial intelligence spending, margins, and guidance now under scrutiny, this earnings week may shape not only short-term price action but the direction of US equities into 2026.

What’s driving the Magnificent 7 earnings focus?

The intensity around this earnings week stems from a simple reality: mega-cap technology remains the primary engine of US earnings growth. Analysts expect the Magnificent 7’s Q4 profits to rise 16.9% year-on-year on revenue growth of 16.6%, far outpacing most other sectors. That concentration leaves the market vulnerable if expectations slip.

AI spending sits at the heart of the debate. Microsoft and Meta have poured tens of billions into infrastructure, data centres, and model development, believing that scale will secure long-term dominance. Apple, by contrast, has appeared slower to articulate a clear AI roadmap, unsettling investors concerned about its competitive edge. Tesla’s challenge is different, balancing AI optimism against pressure on margins and delivery growth in a more competitive EV landscape.

Why it matters

For US stocks, these earnings reports represent more than individual company scorecards. Technology stocks account for a historically high share of S&P 500 market capitalisation, meaning even modest disappointments can ripple across indices. As one senior equity strategist told Reuters, “When mega-caps miss, diversification offers less protection than investors assume”.

Valuations heighten the stakes. The Magnificent 7 currently trade at a 26% premium to the broader market on a forward earnings basis, lower than the five-year median of 43% but still elevated

Investors are effectively paying for sustained growth, not just solid quarters.

Impact on US stocks and market sentiment

Short-term market direction may hinge on guidance rather than headline beats. Apple is expected to deliver earnings of $2.65 per share on $137.5 billion in revenue, both up over 10% year-on-year, with estimates trending higher. 

Microsoft’s outlook appears even stronger, with projected earnings growth exceeding 20%, supported by cloud and enterprise demand.

Meta presents the more fragile narrative. Despite strong revenue growth expectations of over 20%, earnings growth is forecast at just 1.6%, reflecting heavy AI investment. The stock fell sharply after its last report in October, reminding investors how sensitive sentiment has become to cost discipline and forward messaging.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts expect earnings revisions to remain supportive, provided guidance confirms AI spending will translate into revenue acceleration rather than margin erosion. Zacks data shows aggregate earnings estimates for the group have risen steadily since mid-2025, a pattern that previously underpinned market rallies.

Uncertainty remains elevated. Alongside earnings, investors will parse Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments following Wednesday’s policy meeting, even though no rate cut is expected. Any signal on the timing of future easing, or remarks on Fed independence, could amplify volatility already brewing around earnings reactions.

Key takeaway

This earnings week could define the next phase for US stocks, as the Magnificent 7 confront rising expectations amid elevated valuations. AI investment, margins, and forward guidance now matter more than simple earnings beats. With monetary policy uncertainty lingering, markets remain finely balanced. Investors should watch guidance closely, as it may shape equity direction well beyond this quarter.

At this point, the more relevant question may be how much stress global markets are already pricing in. Gold breaking above $5,000 an ounce and silver outperforming almost every major asset suggest investors are no longer hedging short-term risks, but repositioning for a longer period of economic and political instability.

Gold is up more than 65% over the past year, while silver has surged roughly 270% in just over thirteen months. Those moves have unfolded alongside rising global debt, renewed geopolitical tensions, and early signs of US dollar weakness. Together, they point to a rally driven less by speculation and more by a deepening loss of confidence in traditional financial anchors.

What’s driving the precious metals rally?

At the heart of the rally is a global shift towards what analysts increasingly call the “debasement trade”. Investors are buying hard assets to protect purchasing power as government debt levels rise and fiscal credibility weakens. 

According to Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution, the surge in precious metals prices reflects growing market fear that governments may attempt to inflate away debt that has become politically and economically unmanageable.

Currency dynamics have added fuel to the move. After remaining resilient through much of last year, the US dollar has started 2026 on a softer footing. 

A weaker dollar boosts demand for gold and silver from non-US buyers and reinforces their appeal as alternative stores of value. This backdrop has been compounded by geopolitical flashpoints, from stalled Russia–Ukraine peace talks to tensions involving Venezuela and Greenland, each reinforcing demand for assets perceived as politically neutral.

Why it matters

The scale and breadth of participation set this rally apart from previous precious metals cycles. While central banks continue to buy gold aggressively, averaging around 60 tonnes per month, analysts argue they are no longer the dominant driver. Instead, private investors, institutions, and high-net-worth families are playing a growing role as concerns over fiscal sustainability and policy credibility linger.

Goldman Sachs notes that Western gold ETF holdings have increased by roughly 500 tonnes since early 2025, while physical purchases have become a preferred hedge against macro and policy risk. Brooks has warned that the broad rise across gold, silver, and other metals weakens the argument that central bank diversification alone explains the rally, pointing instead to a widespread shift in investor psychology.

Impact on markets and consumers

The rally is already reshaping behaviour far beyond financial markets. In China, record gold and silver prices have triggered a surge in demand for physical investment products, pushing factories to operate overtime. Manufacturers that once focused on jewellery production have pivoted towards producing silver bars as demand for investment-grade metals accelerates.

Silver’s performance has been particularly striking. Spot prices jumped 3% in a single session this week, lifting silver’s market capitalisation to roughly 3.5 times that of Bitcoin. 

Unlike gold, silver also benefits from industrial demand, particularly in energy and electronics, creating a tighter supply-demand balance that has left many retail products in short supply across Asia.

Expert outlook

Forecasts suggest the rally may still have room to run, though volatility risks are rising. Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end gold target to $5,400 an ounce, arguing that hedges against global macro-policy risks, including fiscal sustainability concerns, are likely to remain in place through 2026. Union Bancaire Privée similarly expects gold to reach $5,200 by year-end on sustained institutional and retail demand.

Still, the outlook is not one-directional. Elevated prices increase sensitivity to shifts in interest-rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Markets are closely watching President Trump’s choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, as a more dovish appointment could further reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Conversely, any easing of geopolitical tensions could test the rally’s durability.

Key takeaway

How far the precious metals rally can go depends less on technical levels and more on whether confidence in currencies, fiscal policy, and geopolitical stability continues to erode. Gold and silver are no longer reacting to isolated shocks but to a broader re-pricing of risk. While volatility is likely to increase as prices rise, the underlying demand drivers remain firmly in place. The next decisive signals will come from monetary policy leadership, currency trends, and the trajectory of global conflict.

Gold technical outlook

Gold has decisively moved into price discovery, extending above $5,000 and trading along the upper Bollinger Band. The sustained expansion of the bands reflects elevated volatility and persistent directional momentum following the recent acceleration. 

Momentum indicators signal extreme conditions, with RSI readings deep in overbought territory and the ADX at exceptionally high levels, suggesting a strong, mature trend phase. From a structural standpoint, the advance remains well above earlier consolidation zones around $4,035 and $3,935, emphasising the scale of the move. Overall, the chart depicts an extended momentum-driven environment characterised by high volatility, strong trend persistence, and active price discovery.

Silver technical outlook

Silver has extended sharply higher to fresh highs, trading near the upper Bollinger Band as volatility remains elevated. The Bollinger Bands are widely expanded, indicating sustained directional momentum rather than a low-volatility consolidation phase. 

Momentum indicators show extreme conditions, with the RSI hovering deep in overbought territory, reflecting persistent upside pressure. Trend strength remains pronounced, with the ADX at elevated levels and directional indicators confirming a strong, mature trend environment. 

From a structural perspective, the move has carried price well above earlier consolidation zones around $72, $57, and $46.93, highlighting the scale and persistence of the advance. Overall, the chart depicts an extended, momentum-driven phase characterised by strong trend continuation and heightened volatility.

Have precious metals entered a new safe-haven cycle? The evidence increasingly points in that direction, according to analysts. Gold has surged past $4,900 per ounce for the first time, silver has pushed to record highs above $96, and platinum prices have doubled in just seven months. Moves of this scale rarely occur in isolation or purely on speculation.

What sets this moment apart is the synchronisation. A softer US dollar, rising geopolitical risk, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and steady central bank buying are all pulling in the same direction. When gold, silver and platinum respond together to macro stress, it often signals a behavioural shift rather than a short-lived rally - raising questions about whether precious metals are reclaiming their role as core defensive assets.

What’s driving precious metals?

Gold’s latest surge reflects a familiar but intensifying macro backdrop. The US dollar index has slipped around 0.4%, improving affordability for non-dollar buyers, while markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of the year. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive just as confidence in monetary stability begins to wobble.

Geopolitics has added another layer of urgency. Tensions involving Iran and Venezuela, alongside renewed uncertainty around Greenland and NATO security commitments, have curbed risk appetite. 

Although President Trump’s comments on delaying some European tariffs briefly calmed markets, the lack of clarity around long-term trade and security arrangements continues to underpin defensive positioning. As Peter Grant of Zaner Metals observed, gold demand remains closely tied to a broader macro de-dollarisation trend rather than a single headline shock.

Why it matters

This rally carries weight because it is not driven solely by retail speculation. Central banks have remained consistent buyers of gold, reinforcing its status as a strategic reserve asset during periods of fiscal strain and political uncertainty. That steady accumulation has provided a long-term price floor, even amid short-term volatility.

Silver’s behaviour adds another dimension. While it lacks gold’s reserve status, it straddles both monetary and industrial demand. Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu notes that silver still benefits from safe-haven flows during periods of dollar weakness, even as its industrial role amplifies price swings. When both metals attract capital simultaneously, it suggests investors are hedging not just market risk, but systemic uncertainty.

Impact on precious metals markets

Beneath the headline prices, physical market dynamics are tightening. Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, describes current silver trading as unusually intense, with new investors entering the market while long-term holders take partial profits. Demand over the past three to four weeks has exceeded levels seen during the COVID-19 panic, despite silver prices having doubled over the past year.

The pressure is less about raw material scarcity and more about processing capacity. In the United States, large silver bars remain available, but limited refining and minting capacity has created backlogs, rising premiums and delayed deliveries. Outside the US, the squeeze is more pronounced. London and Asian markets face tighter supplies, worsened by ETF inflows that have withdrawn physical silver from circulation. As a result, Asian silver prices now trade up to $3 above New York levels, a gap that may persist due to transport costs and logistical delays.

Copper’s role: a parallel signal, not a safe haven

While copper is not a traditional safe-haven asset, nor a precious metal, its recent behaviour reinforces the broader commodities narrative. Demand for copper has been accelerating as electrification, renewable energy investment and the rapid expansion of AI-driven data centres gather pace. AI infrastructure alone is expected to consume around 500,000 tonnes of copper annually by 2030, adding to already strong demand from property, transport and power networks, particularly in China and India.

At the same time, supply growth has struggled to keep up. Mining disruptions in Chile and Indonesia, declining ore grades and long project lead times - often stretching close to two decades from discovery to production - have constrained output. 

Policy uncertainty has added further volatility. US tariffs on semi-finished copper products, and the possibility of duties on refined copper from 2027 pending a Commerce Department review in mid-2026, have distorted trade flows and pushed US inventories to their highest levels in more than 20 years. While copper’s 2026 outlook is more mixed, with forecasts clustered between $10,000 and $12,500 per tonne, its structural tightness underlines the same theme evident in precious metals: supply is struggling to respond quickly to long-term demand shifts.

Expert outlook

From a technical perspective, gold’s momentum remains intact, though the pace of gains raises the risk of short-term pullbacks. Grant argues that any near-term setbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with $5,000 per ounce now firmly within sight and further upside implied by longer-term projections. The key question is not whether volatility will appear, but whether demand absorbs it.

Platinum’s outlook may be even more sensitive. UBS now expects platinum to trade around $2,500 per ounce in the coming months, citing strong investment demand and tight physical conditions. With annual platinum consumption a fraction of gold’s, even modest shifts in investor preference can trigger sharp price moves. Elevated lease rates in London point to ongoing physical tightness, though UBS warns that the metal’s small market size could keep volatility elevated.

Key takeaway

Precious metals appear to be moving beyond a simple price rally and into a broader safe-haven phase. Gold’s push towards $5,000, silver’s physical market stress and platinum’s supply tightness all point to a reassessment of defensive assets. While volatility is likely, the underlying macro forces remain aligned. The next signals to watch will be Federal Reserve guidance, ETF flows and physical premiums across key global markets.

Silver technical outlook

Silver remains near recent highs following a sharp, sustained advance, with the price continuing to trade close to the upper Bollinger Band. The bands remain widely expanded, indicating elevated volatility and persistent directional pressure rather than consolidation. Momentum indicators reflect stretched conditions: the RSI is hovering above 70, signalling sustained overbought momentum rather than mean reversion. 

Trend strength remains present, with ADX elevated and directional indicators showing continued dominance of the prevailing move. From a structural perspective, silver is holding well above prior breakout zones around $72, $57, and $46.93, highlighting the magnitude and persistence of the recent rally. Overall, price behaviour reflects an extended trend phase characterised by strong momentum and heightened volatility.

US stock indices showed signs of stabilisation this week as Wall Street bounced from a recent sell-off, driven largely by a sudden de-escalation in geopolitical risk tied to tensions over Greenland. 

The S&P 500 climbed about 1.2% to roughly 6,875, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite each rose by similar margins during Wednesday’s session as traders digested President Trump’s rollback of tariff threats. 

The relief rally lifted futures late into the evening, signalling that markets may be positioned for a more constructive phase as the calendar turns toward key inflation data and a packed earnings schedule. With broader macro risks still in play, investors are now looking beyond yesterday’s headlines to the indicators that will shape the next leg of the market’s trajectory.

What’s driving the market outlook?

What began as a sharp risk-off move earlier in the week reversed quickly after President Trump clarified that he would not impose the planned tariffs on European trading partners tied to his controversial push for Greenland. 

Trump’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he outlined a so-called “framework” for a future understanding with NATO, reassured market participants that a broader trade conflict might be avoided. 

Investors had grown anxious after Trump’s earlier threats to escalate tariffs on multiple European nations, which sent index futures sliding and gold prices higher as traders sought safe havens. The pivot toward diplomacy, even if still lacking detail, lessened immediate tail risks and invited dip-buying, which helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recover substantial ground.

But the backdrop remains complex. Markets are simultaneously bracing for a key personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation reading - the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge - and a slate of heavyweight earnings reports. Traders are acutely aware that macro signals and corporate performance will determine whether current gains stick or simply mark a short-lived relief bounce. 

Why this matters to investors

The turnaround in sentiment speaks to how sensitive equities have become to policy swings and risk perceptions. When tariff threats loomed, risk assets weakened sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting notable point losses and the CBOE Volatility Index spiking as fear gripped markets. The subsequent pullback underscores how quickly positioning can unwind when geopolitical uncertainty evaporates.

Relief rallies like this one often reveal deeper undercurrents about investor psychology, according to analysts. Broad participation across major indices - from the Russell 2000 small-cap gauge to large-cap tech stocks - suggests that traders are willing to re-engage with risk, but only in the context of clearer macro direction and reduced headline shock. Analysts pointed out that what matters now is not just the absence of conflict, but the active presence of data that supports sustained economic growth.

Sentiment is also being shaped by the broader macro calendar. With inflation metrics and earnings from bellwether companies approaching, the narrative has shifted from pure geopolitical risk to whether the real economy aligns with lofty market valuations. In this environment, soft inflation data or stronger-than-expected earnings could further buoy indices, while the opposite could quickly tighten financial conditions.

Impact on markets and strategic positioning

The easing of tensions over Greenland has important implications for sector rotation and investor strategy. Financials and energy stocks, which bore the brunt of earlier risk-off positioning, recovered as bonds stabilised and yields retreated modestly. Meanwhile, technology stocks, although rallying, showed a more measured advance - suggesting that traders are not simply chasing growth irrespective of fundamentals.

Sector dynamics offer clues about market confidence. Value-oriented areas responding well to reduced geopolitical risk indicate that expectations of an economic soft landing remain alive, even amid inflation concerns and central bank vigilance. If macro data continues to support resilient spending and earnings, this could validate the current rebound and encourage more durable flows into cyclical exposures.

However, the relief rally does not erase fragility. Indices remain mixed on a weekly basis with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq still lower over recent sessions despite Wednesday’s bounce. This dichotomy shows that while headline risks can abate quickly, structural concerns like inflation, rate expectations, and profit margins still warrant close scrutiny.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, the market narrative is set to pivot toward several critical gauges. The forthcoming PCE inflation print will be one of the most consequential data points for the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. A cooler-than-expected reading could embolden risk appetite; a hotter print might strengthen hawkish sentiment and curb equity gains.

Earnings seasons provide another pivotal catalyst. With results due from household names across tech, consumer staples and industrials, investors will be assessing not just top-line performance but guidance. In an environment where “beat and raise” results have had muted impact on stock prices, future earnings surprises must translate into credible forward narratives to sustain upside.

Strategists caution that volatility remains an active risk. Geopolitical headlines can flip sentiment swiftly, and macro releases will have outsized influence as volatility continues to ebb and flow around news events. For traders and long-term investors alike, adaptability and attention to incoming data will be key in navigating the evolving outlook.

Key takeaway

Sentiment on Wall Street improved sharply as geopolitical tensions tied to Greenland eased, supporting a broad-based rebound in major US indices. Yet, the market’s forward trajectory hinges on macroeconomic data and corporate performance, not just headline risk reductions. Traders should watch inflation indicators and earnings reports closely as they will shape market leadership and volatility in the weeks ahead.

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Yes, gold can still have upside even after President Donald Trump cooled his rhetoric on Greenland at the Davos forum, analysts say. While prices have slipped from record highs near $4,900 per ounce, the pullback reflects easing headline risk rather than a collapse in demand. Spot gold peaked at $4,887.82 before retreating, yet the metal remains up more than 11% in 2026, following a 64% surge last year.

Trump’s shift reduced immediate safe-haven flows, but it did little to unwind the deeper forces driving gold higher. Central bank buying, private-sector diversification, and persistent macro uncertainty remain firmly in place. As markets move beyond the Davos headlines, attention is turning to whether these structural supports can keep pushing gold higher despite calmer geopolitics.

What’s driving gold?

Gold’s latest pullback followed a brief surge driven by geopolitical escalation. Earlier tariff threats tied to tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland prompted investors to seek shelter in bullion. The dispute carried strategic weight, given Greenland’s importance for security and access to critical minerals, amplifying fears of broader trade and diplomatic fallout.

That risk premium eased after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone in Davos. He ruled out the use of force, stepped back from tariff threats, and signalled progress towards a long-term framework agreement with NATO allies. As geopolitical anxiety receded, gold prices softened, a move reinforced by a modest rebound in the US dollar, with the Dollar Index edging higher after a 0.1% rise in the prior session.

Why it matters

Gold’s behaviour underlines how markets are increasingly reacting to political signalling rather than policy outcomes. The mere threat of tariffs was enough to push prices close to $5,000, while reassurance prompted short-term profit-taking. This sensitivity reflects gold’s role as a hedge against policy uncertainty rather than a simple inflation trade.

Crucially, analysts see little sign that the buyers who drove gold higher are stepping away. Goldman Sachs has upgraded its gold outlook, now expecting prices to reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year, up from a previous forecast of $4,900. The bank argues that private-sector diversification into gold is now materially reinforcing central bank demand.

Impact on markets and investors

For investors, the pullback looks more like consolidation than reversal. Gold was trading around $4,800 per ounce after easing from its record high, yet prices have more than doubled since early 2023, when gold traded near $1,865. 

That rise has been underpinned first by official-sector buying in 2023 and 2024, and more recently by a surge in private demand.

The effects are visible across the precious metals space. Silver retreated from a daily high of $95.56 after Trump’s Davos comments, tracking gold lower as risk sentiment improved. The move suggests that shifts in geopolitical risk premiums, rather than changes in physical supply or industrial demand, are currently dictating price action.

Gold’s resilience is also feeding into broader interest in hard assets. Platinum, often overlooked during gold-led rallies, is attracting attention as investors seek diversification in the precious metals space. While platinum remains more sensitive to industrial demand cycles, its constrained supply and strategic role in autocatalysts and emerging clean-energy technologies are reinforcing its appeal as a secondary hedge against macro and policy uncertainty. The shift suggests investors are not just chasing gold’s momentum, but positioning more broadly for a renewed focus on tangible assets.

Expert outlook

Goldman Sachs argues that gold’s rally has accelerated since 2025 because central banks are no longer the sole major buyers. Analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas noted that official institutions are now competing with private investors for limited bullion, intensifying upward price pressure. This follows years of strong central bank accumulation, which laid the groundwork for the current rally.

Private-sector demand has broadened well beyond traditional ETF inflows. Goldman points to rising purchases of physical gold by high-net-worth families, growing use of call options, and the expansion of investment products designed to hedge global macro policy risks. 

The bank also expects support from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside average central bank purchases of 60 tonnes per month in 2026, as emerging markets continue to diversify their reserves.

Underlying this outlook is a structural constraint unique to gold. Unlike other commodities, higher prices do not quickly bring new supply to the market. 

Most gold already exists and simply changes hands, while new mining adds roughly 1% to global supply each year. As Goldman notes, gold prices typically peak only when demand weakens meaningfully - through sustained geopolitical calm, reduced reserve diversification, or a shift by the Federal Reserve back towards rate hikes.

Key takeaway

Gold’s pullback after Trump’s Davos pivot reflects easing headline risk rather than a breakdown in its structural bull case. Central bank buying, expanding private-sector demand, and constrained supply continue to support elevated prices. While near-term volatility is likely as geopolitical narratives shift, analysts see little evidence that the forces driving gold higher are fading. Investors should watch policy signals, dollar strength, and central bank behaviour for the next decisive move.

Technical outlook

Gold has pushed into fresh all-time highs past $4,800, trading beyond the upper Bollinger Band and signalling an extreme momentum phase. Volatility remains elevated, with the bands widely expanded, reflecting sustained directional pressure rather than consolidation. 

Momentum indicators are deeply stretched, with the RSI overbought across multiple timeframes and the monthly reading near extreme levels, while the ADX above 30 confirms a strong, mature trend environment. Overall, price action reflects active price discovery, where trend strength and exhaustion risk are coexisting features of the current market structure.

Bitcoin’s tariff shock has deepened, sharpening the question at the heart of this move. What began as a geopolitical jolt has now turned into a full-blown leverage unwind. On Wednesday, Bitcoin slid 4% to around $88,000, extending losses as risk aversion spread across equities, bonds, and currencies. In just 24 hours, total crypto liquidations swelled beyond $1.07 billion, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted.

This latest leg lower comes as investors increasingly rotate away from US risk exposure altogether. Gold surged to fresh record highs, the dollar weakened, and Wall Street suffered its steepest drop in months. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin is no longer just reacting to tariffs - it is being stress-tested as part of a broader macro reset.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s moves?

The immediate trigger remains President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threat against eight European nations, tied to his insistence that the US must gain control of Greenland. Trump doubled down this week, declaring there was “no going back” on the strategy, reigniting fears of a widening trade war. Markets, already fragile, responded by slashing exposure across risk assets.

In crypto, leverage proved to be the weak point. CoinGlass data shows $359.27M in Bitcoin was liquidated over the past 24 hours. Long positions absorbed nearly all the damage, with $324.74 million wiped out, compared with just $34.53 million in shorts. 

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s slide to $88,000 reinforces a critical reality for traders: in periods of macro stress, crypto remains tightly bound to global risk sentiment. As US equities sold off sharply and the dollar weakened, Bitcoin tracked the same “risk-off” impulse rather than decoupling. This challenges the hedge narrative in the short term, even as longer-term correlations remain debated.

The broader context matters. Wall Street endured its heaviest hit of the week, with the S&P 500 falling 2.06% and the Nasdaq sliding 2.4%, before futures stabilised modestly. When equities, credit, and currencies all come under pressure simultaneously, leveraged assets tend to suffer first - and Bitcoin has once again been treated as part of that high-beta basket.

Impact on crypto markets and traders

The deeper sell-off erased confidence built earlier in January, when ETF inflows helped push Bitcoin close to $98,000. Instead, the focus has shifted to capital preservation. Ether dropped alongside Bitcoin, while altcoins saw comparatively smaller liquidation volumes, reflecting the increasingly concentrated positioning in the largest tokens.

At the same time, the forced deleveraging may be doing some longer-term work. Analysts at CryptoQuant have previously noted that aggressive liquidations often clear fragile positioning, reducing the risk of cascading sell-offs later. If macro pressure stabilises, a less leveraged market could provide firmer footing - though near-term volatility remains elevated.

Gold surges as “Sell America” trade builds

While crypto struggled, traditional havens surged. Spot gold vaulted past $4,800 an ounce for the first time, with silver also hitting record highs, as investors leaned into safety. The move has been framed by some strategists as a growing “Sell America” trade, marked by falling equities, a weaker dollar, and rising bullion.

Trade tensions sit at the centre of that narrative. European policymakers are preparing their response, with the EU set to hold an emergency summit in Brussels and weighing retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion ($109 billion) on US imports. The prospect of tit-for-tat escalation adds another layer of uncertainty for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Expert outlook

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is under pressure but not yet broken. Previous support near $90,000 is now being tested, and sustained weakness below that level would strengthen the case for a deeper corrective phase. However, some analysts caution against assuming a trend shift too quickly.

Robin Singh, CEO of crypto tax platform Koinly, notes that February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering average double-digit gains over the past decade. “But underperformance wouldn’t be surprising, and it’s not necessarily a bad thing,” he said, suggesting consolidation could reset expectations rather than derail the broader cycle.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s tariff shock has intensified, dragging prices down to $88,000 as leverage unwinds and macro stress spreads. For now, the move looks driven more by geopolitics and global risk aversion than by crypto-specific weakness. With gold surging and trade tensions escalating, Bitcoin is caught in the crosscurrents of a broader market reset. Whether this proves to be a deeper trend shift or a painful pullback will depend on how quickly macro uncertainty begins to ease.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin is consolidating after its sharp pullback from recent highs, with price holding within a defined range and remaining above the $84,700 area. Bollinger Bands have narrowed following an earlier period of expansion, indicating a contraction in volatility as directional momentum has slowed. 

Momentum indicators reflect this stabilisation phase: the RSI is rising gradually but remains below the midline, signalling recovering momentum that has not yet returned to prior strength. Structurally, the market remains capped below the former resistance zones around $104,000 and $114,000, with current price behaviour suggesting balance and consolidation rather than active price discovery.

Gold’s surge beyond $4,800 an ounce has been widely framed as a record-breaking moment. That description is accurate, but incomplete, according to some analysts. Prices have climbed more than 5% in a single week, a move that coincided with sharp shifts in currencies, bonds, and investor behaviour rather than any single economic data point. This was not a rally driven solely by inflation fears.

Instead, gold’s breakout reflects a deeper repricing of political risk, global trust, and capital safety. As tensions between the United States and Europe escalate over Greenland and trade policy, investors are reassessing where stability truly resides. In that context, $4,800 may prove less like a peak and more like a new reference point.

What’s driving Gold’s breakout?

The immediate catalyst has been a sharp rise in geopolitical risk centred on the Arctic and transatlantic trade relations. U.S. President Donald Trump’s insistence that there is “no going back” on Greenland, coupled with threats of tariffs on eight European countries, injected uncertainty into markets already sensitive to political shocks. European leaders pushed back forcefully, with French President Emmanuel Macron warning against coercion and signalling potential retaliation.

Markets reacted not to rhetoric alone, but to the implications for alliances and capital flows. The U.S. Dollar Index fell nearly 1%, marking its steepest decline since April, while U.S. bond prices slid and yields spiked. 

The euro strengthened, and European officials reportedly discussed suspending approval of a U.S. trade deal agreed last year. In that environment, gold benefited from being neither a currency nor a sovereign liability.

Monetary policy has played a secondary role. Strong U.S. labour data pushed expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut back to June, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative. Ordinarily, that would weigh on gold. This time, political risk overwhelmed rate dynamics, underscoring how the metal’s function is shifting from inflation hedge to geopolitical insurance.

Why it matters

Gold’s rally matters because it signals a broader erosion of confidence in traditional safe havens. The latest move coincided with what traders openly described as a “sell America” trade, as global investors reduced exposure to U.S.-centric assets. Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI described the environment as a “much broader global risk-off,” driven by political uncertainty rather than economic slowdown.

Ray Dalio framed the issue even more starkly at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He warned that trade conflicts can morph into capital wars, in which countries reassess their willingness to finance U.S. deficits or to accumulate U.S. debt. Gold’s surge reflects that concern. When trust in financial leadership weakens, neutrality commands a premium.

This shift challenges the long-held assumption that government bonds are the ultimate refuge. Rising debt levels, political polarisation, and strategic rivalry have diluted that role. Gold’s breakout suggests investors are redefining what safety looks like in a fragmented world.

Impact on markets and investors

The effects have rippled across asset classes. Precious metals broadly advanced, with silver also hitting fresh highs. Equity markets reacted unevenly, with mining stocks benefiting while sectors exposed to trade disruptions lagged. Bond markets told a clearer story, with higher yields signalling capital exiting U.S. fixed income rather than rotating within it.

Currency volatility reinforced gold’s momentum. The dollar’s sharp drop amplified the metal’s appeal, creating a feedback loop that historically accompanies major gold advances. When currencies wobble, gold often serves as a benchmark that sits outside central bank influence.

Institutional demand adds another layer of support. Central banks have steadily increased gold reserves in recent years as part of diversification strategies. That accumulation suggests this rally is not driven solely by speculative excess, but by long-term allocation decisions that tend to persist even after volatility fades.

Expert outlook

Whether gold extends its rally from here remains debated. Some analysts expect consolidation after such a rapid move, especially if diplomatic tensions cool or currency markets stabilise. Others argue that meaningful peaks usually coincide with resolution, not escalation, and little about the current geopolitical backdrop points to resolution.

One senior precious-metals strategist described the move as a “structural repricing driven by geopolitics and confidence shifts rather than short-term fear.” That view implies that former resistance levels may now act as psychological support. If geopolitical tension, fiscal pressure, and alliance uncertainty persist, gold’s role in portfolios is likely to expand further.

Markets will be watching developments around U.S.–EU relations, trade policy, and central bank reserve behaviour closely. These signals, rather than day-to-day price swings, will determine whether $4,800 marks the end of a range or merely the start of a higher one.

Key takeaway

Gold’s break above $4,800 reflects more than a rush to safety. It signals a reassessment of political risk, currency stability, and global trust. With central bank demand underpinning prices and geopolitical tension unresolved, this move may represent a new baseline rather than a blow-off top. What happens next will depend less on economic data and more on diplomacy, trade, and confidence in global leadership.

Gold technical outlook

Gold has pushed into fresh all-time highs past $4,800, trading beyond the upper Bollinger Band and signalling an extreme momentum phase. Volatility remains elevated, with the bands widely expanded, reflecting sustained directional pressure rather than consolidation. 

Momentum indicators are deeply stretched, with the RSI overbought across multiple timeframes and the monthly reading near extreme levels, while the ADX above 30 confirms a strong, mature trend environment. Overall, price action reflects active price discovery, where trend strength and exhaustion risk are coexisting features of the current market structure.

Hard assets are no longer behaving like a niche hedge. In 2025, gold pushed decisively into record territory, silver surged nearly 150%, and platinum rose more than 120% - a scale of movement that signals something deeper than a short-lived flight to safety, according to analysts. At the same time, traditional defensive assets such as the US dollar and long-dated Treasuries have struggled to perform when geopolitical risk flares.

As investors look beyond the initial rush into gold and silver, attention is shifting toward what comes next. With supply constraints tightening, strategic classifications changing, and geopolitics increasingly shaping commodity markets, platinum is emerging as a serious question for 2026 rather than a forgotten footnote.

What’s driving the hard-asset shift?

The renewed US–Europe standoff over Greenland has reinforced demand for precious metals, but it did not create it. Gold and silver were already rallying before geopolitical tensions resurfaced, driven by rising concerns over fiscal discipline, monetary credibility, and institutional reliability in the United States. Long-end Treasury yields climbing during risk events have become a recurring signal that confidence, not growth, is being questioned.

This environment has exposed a critical vulnerability in portfolio construction. Assets that depend on government promises - currencies and sovereign bonds - are no longer providing consistent protection when uncertainty rises. As a result, capital has flowed toward assets that lie entirely outside the financial system. Gold benefits first in these moments, but history shows that once the hard-asset theme takes hold, it tends to broaden.

Why it matters

What distinguishes this cycle from previous risk episodes is the erosion of trust in traditional safe havens, according to analysts. The dollar and the yen have struggled to attract the defensive flows they once did, while US Treasuries have reacted to geopolitical stress with higher yields rather than lower ones.

 Markets appear increasingly sensitive to the scale of US deficits and the perception that monetary policy could face political pressure in the coming years.

Analysts have begun to frame the move into hard assets as structural rather than tactical. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank has argued that metals are now responding to “system-level doubt rather than headline-driven fear”. In that context, diversification within the hard-asset space becomes as important as initial exposure, which helps explain why attention is expanding beyond gold.

Impact on the metals market

Gold remains the anchor, according to analysts, but silver’s outsized rally has started to raise questions. At current levels, silver risks triggering a collapse in industrial demand, particularly in price-sensitive sectors. That does not invalidate the bullish case, but it does complicate it, encouraging investors to reassess relative value within precious metals rather than adding indiscriminately.

Platinum stands out in this reassessment. Despite its strong performance in 2025, it remains well below its historical highs and has lagged gold over the past several years. More importantly, its supply-and-demand dynamics look increasingly fragile. Unlike gold, platinum is both an investment asset and a critical industrial input, making it more sensitive to shifts in manufacturing, regulation, and geopolitics.

Platinum’s supply constraints and industrial reality

Roughly 42% of platinum demand still comes from the automotive sector, where it is used in catalytic converters. For years, expectations of rapid electric vehicle adoption weighed heavily on prices. Those assumptions are now being revised. TD Securities expects internal combustion engine demand, especially in the US, to remain more resilient than previously forecast, offering continued support for platinum and palladium.

At the same time, supply is tightening. The World Platinum Investment Council reported that above-ground inventories now cover only about 5 months of demand, after 3 consecutive years of deficits. 

Limited investment in new mining projects has capped production growth, leaving the market exposed to shocks. According to Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP, the sector faces “persistent structural deficits” rather than temporary imbalances.

Geopolitics, critical metals, and strategic stockpiling

Platinum’s outlook has also been reshaped by politics. In November 2025, the US Geological Survey classified platinum and palladium as critical metals, elevating their strategic importance. That designation has intensified discussions around supply security, trade policy, and inventory management at both corporate and state levels.

The possibility of US tariffs under an ongoing Section 232 investigation, even if delayed, has reinforced a shift toward “just-in-case” stockpiling. In physical markets such as London, this has contributed to an artificial tightness, as material is withheld from circulation. In a world where strategic resources are increasingly treated as national assets, price formation is no longer purely an economic process.

Expert outlook for 2026

Forecasts for platinum in 2026 reflect this tension between opportunity and risk. MKS PAMP sees prices potentially reaching $2,000 per ounce, while TD Securities expects averages closer to $1,800 in the second half of the year. At the more cautious end, BMO Capital Markets projects prices around $1,375, arguing that any oversupply could ease pressure on spot markets.

What unites these views is uncertainty around inventories. WPIC scenarios suggest that continued exchange inflows could deepen deficits, while sustained outflows might even push the market into surplus by 2026. That sensitivity underscores why platinum is increasingly viewed as a strategic question rather than a simple continuation of the gold trade.

Key takeaway

The hard-asset rally is no longer just about gold. It reflects a deeper shift in how investors view risk, trust, and diversification. As silver tests levels that strain industrial demand, platinum is moving into focus as a metal shaped by supply tightness, strategic importance, and geopolitical risk. For 2026, the critical signals to watch will be inventories, trade policy, and whether investor demand expands beyond gold into the broader precious metals complex.

Platinum technical outlook

Platinum remains elevated following a sharp upside acceleration, with price consolidating near recent highs while trading along the upper Bollinger Band. The sustained width of the bands reflects persistently high volatility, even as the pace of the advance has slowed. 

Momentum indicators show a moderation rather than a reversal, with the RSI dipping back toward the midline after previously reaching stretched levels. From a structural perspective, the broader move remains intact above the $2,200 area, while earlier breakout zones near $1,650 and $1,500 sit well below current prices, underscoring the magnitude of the recent advance. Overall, current price action reflects a pause near highs within a still-elevated volatility regime.