Bitcoin’s latest move higher is being driven by macro forces, not crypto-native hype, according to analysts. A softer US inflation print, easing global financial conditions, and a well-telegraphed Bank of Japan rate hike have combined to lift risk assets across the board. 

Bitcoin surged above $87,000 during Asia trading, while ether and major altcoins followed, as markets concluded that monetary conditions remain accommodative despite the tightening of headline rates.

What makes this rally different is what sits beneath it. As macro relief lifts prices, Bitcoin is simultaneously being absorbed into the banking system. Nearly 60% of the largest US banks are now preparing to sell, custody, or advise on Bitcoin directly, signalling that crypto’s next phase is not about discovery, but normalisation.

What’s driving the crypto rally?

The immediate catalyst came from central banks, not blockchains. Japan’s central bank raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years, pushing 10-year government bond yields briefly to 2% for the first time since 2006. 

Instead of triggering a risk-off shock, the move was absorbed smoothly. The yen weakened, Asian equities rose, and global markets treated the decision as confirmation that real rates remain negative and liquidity intact.

At the same time, US inflation data surprised to the downside, reviving expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates in the coming months. 

That combination eased financial conditions and restored appetite for risk assets, including crypto. Bitcoin and ether pushed through key technical levels, while broader crypto markets advanced even as leverage-driven liquidations cleared crowded positioning.

This macro-led relief rally is significant because it reframes the role of crypto. Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a global liquidity barometer rather than a standalone speculative asset, responding to the same forces that drive equities, currencies, and credit.

Why Bitcoin is entering the banking system now

While prices react to macro signals, the structural story is unfolding more quietly. For years, US banks treated Bitcoin as something to observe rather than offer. Capital rules, custody concerns, and reputational risk kept crypto outside core banking systems. That posture is now shifting.

According to data from River, nearly 60% of the 25 largest US banks are on a path to offering Bitcoin services, whether through trading, custody, or advisory products. 

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 marked a turning point. They allowed banks to meet client demand inside familiar regulatory wrappers while outsourcing operational complexity. Crucially, ETF flows moved sharply in both directions without breaking market plumbing, giving risk committees confidence that Bitcoin’s volatility could be managed within existing frameworks.

The next step is direct exposure. Banks are beginning to allow select clients to hold and trade Bitcoin on the same platforms they already use for equities and foreign exchange, transforming crypto from a fringe allocation into a routine line item.

How banks are doing it without owning the risk

Rather than build crypto infrastructure from scratch, banks are adopting white-label models. PNC’s private bank provides a clear example. Instead of launching its own exchange, it uses Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service platform, retaining control of client relationships, compliance, and reporting while outsourcing trading and key management.

This approach has been reinforced by regulatory clarity. Recent guidance from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allows national banks to treat crypto trades as riskless principal transactions, buying from a liquidity provider and selling to clients almost simultaneously. That structure reduces balance-sheet exposure and allows Bitcoin desks to sit alongside foreign exchange or fixed-income operations.

The result is cautious but deliberate expansion. Banks are starting with sophisticated clients and tight controls. Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley are targeting the first half of 2026 for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading on self-directed platforms, with allocation caps and conservative eligibility screens expected to limit early access.

What this means for crypto markets

According to analysts, as Bitcoin moves deeper into regulated wealth platforms, market behaviour is beginning to diverge. Bitcoin is increasingly capturing institutional demand, while altcoins remain more sensitive to changes in liquidity and leverage. Recent price action reflects that split. Bitcoin pushed higher on macro relief, while tokens such as XRP struggled to reclaim key levels despite elevated trading volumes, suggesting distribution rather than panic selling.

ETF flows are reinforcing this dynamic. Bitwise estimates that Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed nearly twice the amount of BTC mined since their launch, and expects ETFs to buy more than 100% of annual new supply across major assets going forward. As institutional ownership broadens, Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to fall, potentially below that of mega-cap technology stocks, as its investor base becomes more stable.

This does not eliminate risk. Most banks rely on a small group of cryptocurrency infrastructure providers, creating operational concentration. A major outage or enforcement action would ripple through multiple institutions at once. Even so, the direction of travel is clear: Bitcoin exposure is becoming institutional by default.

Expert outlook

Arthur Hayes has framed this shift in overtly macro terms, arguing that persistent negative real rates in Japan could drive capital into Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. His projection of a $1 million Bitcoin price is extreme, but it underscores how Bitcoin is now discussed through the lens of global monetary policy rather than technological novelty.

More measured forecasts point to a quieter transformation. Bitwise argues the traditional four-year crypto cycle is fading as ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption overpower halving-driven dynamics. On-chain data from K33 Research suggests long-term Bitcoin holders are nearing the end of a multi-year distribution phase, removing a key source of selling pressure.

The next test will come from liquidity. If macro conditions remain supportive, Bitcoin’s integration into banking systems could stabilise demand. If conditions tighten abruptly, the new plumbing will be subjected to stress testing.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s latest rally is being driven by macroeconomic relief, but its foundation remains structural. As central banks ease financial conditions, US banks are embedding Bitcoin into wealth platforms, custody services, and advisory models. This combination is shifting Bitcoin from an exception to a standard financial product. The next phase will be defined less by price targets and more by how smoothly crypto integrates into the machinery of mainstream finance.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin is consolidating close to the lower Bollinger Band, a configuration that reflects persistent downside pressure while also increasing the probability of short-term stabilisation. This type of compression often precedes a volatility expansion, particularly when macro-driven flows remain active. On Deriv MT5, this range-bound behaviour is clearly visible as price action tightens after recent liquidation-driven swings.

Upside attempts continue to stall below the $94,600 zone, which remains a well-defined resistance level where previous rebounds have failed. Until price reclaims that area with volume, recovery moves are likely to be tactical rather than trend-defining. On the downside, $84,700 stands out as a critical support. A decisive break below this level would likely accelerate sell-side liquidations, especially given the elevated leverage still present across crypto derivatives markets.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The RSI has begun to edge higher but remains below the midpoint, signalling that buyers are probing rather than committing. For traders assessing position sizing and risk around these levels, tools such as the Deriv trading calculator can help quantify margin requirements and potential exposure, particularly in an environment where technical levels and macro headlines are interacting closely.

Metals are surging again because investors are grappling with a Federal Reserve that is signalling caution rather than conviction. November’s US labour data showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, while job creation slowed sharply compared with earlier in the year. Yet inflation remains elevated enough to keep policymakers hesitant. That mix of slowing growth and unresolved price pressures has reignited demand for precious metals as a hedge against policy uncertainty.

Silver’s rally to record highs near $66.50 per ounce and platinum’s sharp breakout above long-term resistance reflect more than speculative enthusiasm. Markets are increasingly pricing US rate cuts in 2026, real yields are drifting lower, and physical supply constraints are tightening. With investors awaiting fresh inflation signals from the Consumer Price Index, metals have once again become a barometer of confidence in the global monetary outlook.

What’s driving the metals rally?

The immediate catalyst behind the renewed surge in metals is uncertainty over the direction and timing of US monetary policy. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report confirmed that the labour market is cooling, but not collapsing. Payrolls grew by only 64,000 in November, while prior months were revised lower, reinforcing the idea that economic momentum is fading. 

At the same time, inflation has not slowed quickly enough to give the Fed room for decisive easing. That ambiguity has left markets in limbo. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that US borrowing costs could eventually be up to one percentage point lower if the labour market softens, prompting traders to price in two rate cuts in 2026. Lower expected rates tend to weaken real yields, which directly improves the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Supply dynamics are amplifying the move. Silver is heading into its fifth consecutive annual market deficit, driven by robust industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centres. Inventories are already tight, meaning that even modest shifts in investment flows can have a significant impact on prices.

Why it matters

The rally in metals matters because it reflects a deeper re-pricing of risk across financial markets, according to analysts. Investors are no longer positioning themselves purely for growth or recession, but rather for a prolonged period of economic uncertainty where inflation, interest rates, and growth fail to move in tandem. In that environment, metals regain their traditional role as stores of value rather than being used as tactical trades.

Platinum’s resurgence is particularly revealing. Often overshadowed by gold and silver, platinum is now benefiting from structural supply shortages. The World Platinum Investment Council expects a deficit of several hundred thousand ounces in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of undersupply. 

As one market analyst observed, “low elasticity in recycling, limited reinvestment at the mine level, and persistent production constraints are making future supply risks harder to ignore.” This suggests the current move resembles a re-rating rather than a short-lived spike.

Impact on markets and investors

For investors, the metals rally is reshaping portfolio dynamics. Gold continues to anchor defensive allocations, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver, however, has taken on a more complex role. Its price now reflects both safe-haven demand and expectations that industrial consumption will remain resilient even if global growth slows.

Platinum’s advance adds another layer to the story. South Africa, which accounts for between 70% and 80% of global platinum production, has faced repeated mining disruptions that have constrained output. At the same time, exports to China have been strong, and the launch of platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased confidence in long-term demand from Asia.

There are also signs of stress in physical markets. Financial institutions have reportedly been moving metal inventories to the United States to hedge against tariff risks, while the London market is showing signs of tightening. These shifts underscore the growing influence of geopolitical fragmentation and supply-chain security on commodity pricing.

Expert outlook

Looking beyond the near-term data cycle, Deriv expert Vince Stanzione argues that the broader bull case for precious metals remains firmly intact as we head into 2026. 

After what he describes as a “blockbuster” 2025 - with gold rising roughly 60% to around $4,200 per ounce and silver gaining close to 80% on strong industrial demand - momentum has carried into the new year. In his view, the rally is unlikely to repeat those extremes, but still has room to run.

Stanzione forecasts further double-digit gains, projecting gold to rise 20-25% and silver 25-30% in 2026, comfortably outperforming equities, where expected returns for the S&P 500 sit closer to 3-5% as valuations stretch. He cautions that sharp pullbacks are likely along the way, but stresses that the dominant trend remains upward as investors continue to seek protection from policy uncertainty and currency debasement.

The structural case rests heavily on central bank behaviour. According to Stanzione, official institutions added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold to reserves in 2025, led by the People’s Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of India, with a further 800-900 tonnes potentially coming in 2026 as diversification away from the US dollar accelerates. China alone has experienced a steady thirteen-month buying streak since late 2022, followed by a brief pause in May 2024.

Silver’s outlook is reinforced by its dual role as a monetary hedge and industrial input, with demand from solar panels and electric vehicles expected to outpace mined supply, further tightening inventories.

Stanzione also highlights gold miners as a leveraged way to express the metals theme. Despite a strong 2025, valuations remain compressed. Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold producer, trades on a forward price-to-earnings ratio well below the broader market, supported by low production costs and strong free cash flow. 

Historically, he notes, a 10% move in gold prices has translated into roughly 25-30% earnings growth for miners, although risks such as a stronger US dollar or weaker Chinese demand could temper gains.

Monthly price chart of Newmont Corporation (NEM) from 1997 to November 2025

On platinum and palladium, Stanzione remains constructive but selective. Both metals experienced solid gains in 2025 and benefited from industrial demand, particularly in catalytic converters, yet remain well below their previous peaks. While smaller and more volatile than gold and silver, they remain worth monitoring as potential catch-up trades if supply constraints persist. To read more on how to trade commodities, read this free ebook exclusively published by Deriv.

Key takeaway

Metals are surging again because markets are adjusting to a world where monetary policy clarity is absent and economic risks are uneven. Silver’s record highs and platinum’s rapid catch-up point to tightening supply and renewed defensive positioning. With inflation data and Fed signals still pulling markets in different directions, metals remain a critical hedge and indicator. The next CPI release may shape short-term price action, but the broader trend appears increasingly durable.

Silver technical insights

Silver remains firmly in an uptrend, with price holding near the upper Bollinger Band, signalling strong bullish momentum. However, the RSI has pushed well into overbought territory, increasing the risk of short-term consolidation or profit-taking.

On the downside, $50.00 is the first key support, followed by $46.93, where a break could trigger sell-side liquidations and a deeper corrective move. As long as silver holds above $50, the broader bullish structure remains intact, though upside gains may slow without a pullback.

Tesla’s share price has pushed into record territory, but the foundations supporting that rally look increasingly unstable. Despite the stock climbing more than 20% this year, the company’s core electric vehicle business is shrinking, margins remain under pressure, and regulatory risks are rising rather than fading, according to reports.

The latest warning comes from California, where regulators are threatening a 30-day sales ban unless Tesla changes how it markets Autopilot and Full Self-Driving. At the same time, investors are valuing Tesla less like a carmaker and more like an AI and robotics company. That disconnect explains the rally - and why it may prove difficult to sustain.

What’s driving Tesla’s record high?

Analysts expressed that Tesla’s surge is being driven by belief, not balance sheets. Investors are once again buying into Elon Musk’s long-promised vision that Tesla will reinvent itself as a robotaxi and robotics platform. That optimism flared after Musk said Tesla has been testing fully driverless vehicles in Austin without safety drivers, a step bulls see as the beginning of large-scale autonomy.

Crucially, this enthusiasm has emerged even as Tesla’s underlying business is weakening. CNBC reported vehicle deliveries fell 13% in the first quarter, while automotive revenue dropped 20%. Sales stabilised briefly in the third quarter as US buyers rushed to secure expiring tax credits, but momentum faded once incentives disappeared. The stock, however, continued to climb - a sign that the market is pricing Tesla for what it hopes the company will become, not what it currently is.

Why it matters

California’s intervention strikes directly at that hope-driven valuation, according to analysts. The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles ruled that Tesla misled consumers by using terms such as “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving Capability” for systems that are not autonomous. Tesla now has 60 days to change its language or face a temporary suspension of sales in the state.

For investors, this is more than a branding dispute. California is Tesla’s largest US market and home to one of its factories. More importantly, regulatory credibility underpins Tesla’s entire autonomy narrative. According to one US auto analyst, “You cannot build a trillion-dollar autonomy business while regulators are questioning whether your product does what it says on the tin.”

Impact on the EV and AI trade

The regulatory pressure comes as Tesla faces intensifying competition and fading pricing power. CNBC reported that cheaper EVs from BYD and Xiaomi in China, alongside stronger European offerings from Volkswagen, are putting pressure on demand. In the US, stripped-down versions of the Model 3 and Model Y have cannibalised higher-margin models, pushing November sales to a four-year low.

In other news, Tesla’s stock also trades increasingly in lockstep with the broader AI sector. This week’s pullback followed weakness across AI-linked stocks after delays in Oracle’s massive data-centre financing raised concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure spending. That linkage makes Tesla more vulnerable to shifts in AI sentiment, even when its own fundamentals remain unchanged.

Expert outlook

Wall Street remains divided. Mizuho recently raised its price target on Tesla to $530, citing improvements in Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as a potential driver of robotaxi expansion in Austin and San Francisco. Bulls believe Tesla’s camera-only approach will scale faster and cheaper than rivals relying on lidar.

Sceptics see mounting legal and regulatory risks. Federal safety agencies continue to investigate crashes linked to Autopilot, while a Florida jury recently ordered Tesla to pay $329 million in damages following a fatal 2019 accident. Meanwhile, rivals such as Nissan, working with Nvidia-backed Wayve, are targeting similar driver-assist capabilities at half Tesla’s price. The technological lead Tesla once enjoyed is narrowing.

Key takeaway

Market watchers noted Tesla’s record high reflects belief in a future that has yet to arrive. Robotaxi optimism is masking weakening EV fundamentals and rising regulatory risk. California’s warning highlights how fragile that narrative has become. Investors should monitor regulatory outcomes, progress on real-world autonomy, and whether revenues can begin to justify the valuation.

Tesla technical insights

Tesla’s daily chart shows price consolidating just below a key $474 resistance zone, an area that has repeatedly capped upside moves. The recent rejection from this level suggests near-term profit-taking, although sustained buying above $474 would open the door for another momentum-driven push higher.

On the downside, $440 remains the first critical support, followed by $420 and the broader $400 demand zone. A clean break below $440 would likely trigger sell-side liquidity, increasing the risk of a deeper pullback towards these lower levels.

Momentum indicators suggest a market that is strong but overextended. The RSI is flattening just below the 70 mark, signalling bullish momentum is intact, but also warning that upside may be limited without fresh catalysts. This setup favours range-bound price action in the short term unless bulls can reclaim and hold above resistance.

According to analysts, what comes next is not a sharp economic break, but a slower and more policy-driven phase for markets. November’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the US economy added 64,000 jobs, modestly beating expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021. Hiring is still expanding, but the momentum that defined the post-pandemic recovery is clearly fading.

For investors, that combination changes the conversation. A cooling labour market eases inflation pressure without triggering recession fears, allowing the Federal Reserve greater flexibility in shaping its next move. The focus is now shifting away from whether the slowdown is real and towards how quickly monetary policy will respond.

What’s driving the labour market slowdown?

The softer tone in November’s NFP data is the result of gradual adjustment rather than sudden weakness. Job creation remains positive, but revisions to earlier months have reshaped the trend. September payrolls were revised down by 33,000 jobs, while October showed a loss of 105,000 roles, distorted by the recent US government shutdown that disrupted hiring and data collection.

Wage growth adds to the picture of easing pressure. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-on-month, undershooting forecasts, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.5% from 3.7%. 

That deceleration matters for policymakers. A labour market that cools through slower hiring and moderating wages, rather than rising layoffs, is exactly the outcome the Federal Reserve has been aiming for.

Why it matters

For the Federal Reserve, November’s NFP report restores visibility after weeks of uncertainty caused by the shutdown. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have repeatedly pointed to signs of gradual labour market rebalancing, and the latest data aligns with that assessment.

Market pricing has responded accordingly. Futures now imply roughly 58 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, well above the 25-basis-point guidance signalled in last week’s Fed projections. Analysts at Sucden Financial described the report as “consistent with a controlled slowdown rather than an outright contraction,” a scenario that allows policy easing without the urgency of crisis response.

Impact on markets and assets

Financial markets absorbed the data without drama, but the underlying shifts were telling. US equities traded modestly lower as investors reassessed growth expectations, while the US dollar weakened across major currency pairs. USD/JPY slipped towards 154.6 as softer US data collided with rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this week, before a significant uptick that saw the pair reclaim the 155 price level.

Commodities reflected the same macro recalibration. Copper prices eased despite remaining up more than 30% this year, with thin year-end liquidity exaggerating moves as traders locked in gains. Oil prices fell towards $55 a barrel, pressured by optimism over potential progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and growing concerns about a supply glut in 2026, as global demand signals soften.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, economists expect labour market cooling to persist into early 2026 rather than reverse. Inflation data support that view, reinforcing expectations that price pressures will continue to ease.

History offers a useful parallel. During the Fed’s 2019 easing cycle, the dollar index weakened in the months following the first rate cut, after an initial jump, as markets adjusted to a lower-rate environment. With another NFP report due in early January, just weeks before the Fed’s next meeting, investors will be watching closely for confirmation that November’s slowdown was not a one-off, but the start of a broader shift.

Key takeaway

November’s NFP report confirms that the US labour market is cooling in a measured and controlled way. Hiring is slowing, wages are easing, and unemployment is edging higher without triggering recession fears. That combination strengthens the case for rate cuts later in 2026 and keeps downward pressure on the US dollar. The next decisive signals will come from inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s guidance as markets transition into the new year.

USD/JPY technical insights

USD/JPY is consolidating just above the 155.10 support zone after failing to hold gains near the 157.40 resistance, signalling a pause in upside momentum rather than a broader trend reversal. Price action remains range-bound, reflecting a fragile equilibrium between persistent US dollar strength and intermittent demand for the Japanese yen as traders assess shifting interest-rate expectations.

Momentum indicators reinforce this neutral bias. The RSI is hovering close to the 50 midline, highlighting a lack of clear directional conviction, while the MACD remains marginally positive but is flattening, a sign that bullish momentum is beginning to fade. Traders tracking these signals on platforms such as Deriv MT5 are increasingly focused on whether the price holds above near-term support. Meanwhile, tools like the Deriv Trading Calculator are being used to gauge position sizing and risk should volatility pick up around key levels.

As long as 155.10 remains intact, the broader bullish structure is preserved. However, a decisive break below this level could open the door to deeper downside towards 153.55 and potentially 151.76. On the upside, a sustained move back above 157.40 would be needed to re-ignite momentum and shift the technical outlook back in favour of the bulls.

Bitcoin’s drop below the $90,000 level is not a collapse, but it is more than routine volatility, according to reports. The move reflects a macro-driven reset, where risk appetite has waned, and leverage has been unwound, rather than a breakdown in long-term demand. Prices slid into the mid-$85,000 range over the weekend, while more than $400 million in crypto positions were liquidated in a single day, according to CoinGlass data.

Sentiment has deteriorated sharply. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to as low as 16, firmly in “extreme fear” territory, even as total crypto market capitalisation recovered above $3.1 trillion. 

That combination - deep pessimism without signs of capitulation - suggests the market is searching for a base analysts noted. Whether this phase becomes a buying window now depends less on crypto-specific narratives and more on global monetary policy signals.

What’s driving bitcoin’s slide?

Market watchers expressed that Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim $90,000 has been shaped by a clear shift towards risk aversion. The recent rebound lost momentum as macroeconomic uncertainty resurfaced, prompting traders to reduce their exposure. CoinGlass data shows $201.52 million in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours alone, with long positions accounting for $100.29 million. 

Macroeconomic uncertainty has been the dominant catalyst. Attention has turned to the Bank of Japan, where economists widely expect a 0.25% interest-rate hike at this week’s policy meeting. Such a move would deepen the divergence with the US Federal Reserve, which has already begun cutting rates. That divergence risks accelerating the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades that have supported global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Thin December liquidity magnified the impact, allowing modest selling to push prices sharply lower.

Why it matters for market sentiment

The significance of bitcoin’s pullback lies in the message sent by sentiment indicators rather than the price level itself. A Fear and Greed Index reading deep in extreme fear signals that investors are prioritising capital preservation over upside participation. Historically, similar readings have often aligned with local market bottoms; however, they have also persisted during periods of prolonged macroeconomic stress.

Institutional behaviour has added to the caution, according to analysts. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $3.48 billion in net outflows last month, marking their heaviest monthly exodus since February. While inflows have returned modestly this month, they have not been strong enough to reverse the narrative. As one digital asset strategist told Reuters, “When ETF demand stalls, bitcoin becomes far more sensitive to macro shocks”.

Impact on the broader crypto market

The wider crypto market has mirrored bitcoin’s weakness without showing signs of outright capitulation. Analysts note that most major altcoins have remained subdued, with many posting double-digit monthly losses and showing little reaction to bitcoin’s modest rebound. Bitcoin dominance has climbed towards 57%, highlighting a defensive rotation within the digital asset complex rather than renewed appetite for speculative risk.

At the same time, activity remains elevated. Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume has surged by more than 70% to around $51 billion, suggesting active repositioning rather than abandonment. Technical indicators reflect this tension. 

Expert outlook: collapse, reset, or buying window?

Most analysts describe the current phase as a reset rather than a collapse. The sell-off has been driven by leverage unwinds, policy uncertainty, and positioning adjustments, rather than structural damage to Bitcoin’s adoption story. 

Corporate concerns have unsettled sentiment, particularly after headlines suggested large bitcoin-holding firms briefly considered asset sales to manage dividends. Although those fears were later eased, the episode highlighted how balance-sheet pressure could become a risk if economic conditions tighten.

Whether this reset becomes a buying window depends on upcoming signals. A Bank of Japan rate hike could extend risk-off pressure if carry trades unwind aggressively, while further ambiguity from the Federal Reserve would keep markets cautious. On the other hand, stabilising ETF flows and improving liquidity could quickly shift sentiment. For now, Bitcoin appears to be trapped in a consolidation range, with the downside driven more by macroeconomic nerves than a loss of conviction.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000 is best viewed as a macro-driven reset, not a collapse. Extreme fear, ETF outflows, and central-bank uncertainty have suppressed risk appetite, even as trading activity remains high. Historically, such conditions can lay the groundwork for opportunity, but timing remains uncertain. The next moves in monetary policy and institutional flows will determine whether this phase becomes a genuine buying window.

Bitcoin technical insights

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains locked in a corrective consolidation following its sharp pullback from the US$114,000 highs. Price action is hovering just above the US$84,700 support zone, a level increasingly viewed by traders as a near-term line in the sand. A decisive break below this area could expose the market to another wave of liquidation-driven selling, particularly given the still-elevated use of leverage across derivatives markets.

Momentum indicators point to caution rather than capitulation. The Relative Strength Index is edging higher but remains below the 50 midline, suggesting bearish pressure is easing without yet confirming a trend reversal. The MACD remains in negative territory, although its histogram is gradually improving, indicating that downside momentum is slowing. Traders monitoring these levels on platforms such as Deriv MT5 are increasingly focused on how price behaves around support, while tools like the Deriv Trading Calculator are being used to assess margin exposure and potential risk if volatility accelerates.

On the upside, recovery attempts remain capped by resistance near US$94,600, followed by a more significant ceiling around US$106,600. Until one of these levels is convincingly breached, bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound, with technical traders waiting for a clearer catalyst before committing to a directional move.

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The tectonic plates of finance seem to be shifting. Bloomberg reported: JPMorgan, the very institution whose CEO once famously dismissed Bitcoin as a "fraud," has just launched its first tokenised money market fund. It is a rather curious development, wouldn't you agree?

Enter MONY - or, if you prefer, My OnChain Net Yield Fund. And where does this novel financial instrument reside? None other than the very public Ethereum blockchain. The irony, as they say, is as thick as a London fog.

The question, then, becomes unavoidable: Why this seemingly contradictory move from a financial titan? Is it mere capitulation, a begrudging acceptance of the inevitable? Or is it something more profound - a calculated speculation on the future of finance itself, with potentially massive implications for how (very large) investments are managed?

MONY, MONY, MONY: The lowdown on JPMorgan's new fund

Let's dissect this curious beast. What exactly is MONY?

Imagine a traditional money market fund - a haven of safe, short-term investments in the mundane but reliable world of U.S. Treasuries, designed to provide a steady, if unspectacular, yield. Now, reimagine that fund as a series of digital tokens, living and breathing on the blockchain. That, in essence, is MONY.

But before you envision a democratic revolution in finance, a word of caution: This isn't for everyone. Or even most people. MONY is a private placement, exclusively for "qualified investors" - those individuals with a net worth of over $5 million, or institutions managing assets exceeding $25 million. And the ante to even join this exclusive club? A cool $1 million minimum investment.

The mechanics, in their simplest form, are this: Investors receive digital tokens representing their share of the fund. These tokens accrue daily interest, with the aim of yielding returns that surpass those offered by traditional bank deposits. Subscription and redemption are handled via the familiar route of cash or, intriguingly, through Circle's USDC stablecoin. The entire operation is powered by JPM's Kinexys Digital Assets platform, a name that evokes a vaguely sci-fi feel.

The promise, of course, is the "blockchain magic" - faster, cheaper, and more transparent transactions. We're talking near-instant settlement, round-the-clock trading, and the tantalising prospect of using these tokenised assets as collateral within the broader blockchain ecosystem.

From gold-backed bills to digital tokens

To truly grasp the significance of MONY, it's helpful to take a brief detour through history. The concept of tokenisation, in a sense, isn't entirely new. Consider Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) or Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) – early, albeit clunky, attempts to digitise asset ownership. Even paper money itself was originally conceived as a "token" representing a claim on gold.

But the real inflection point arrived in 2015 with the launch of Ethereum. Bitcoin, of course, laid the groundwork, but Ethereum's smart contracts (and the subsequent ERC-20 standard) unlocked the potential for truly complex asset tokenisation. Analysts called it  the dawn of a new era, even if most of Wall Street didn’t immediately realise it.

The allure for Wall Street, eventually, proved too strong to resist: the inherent transparency and immutability of blockchain, the promise of dramatically faster settlement times, and the tantalising prospect of slashing operational costs.

Why big banks are getting tokenised (Now!)

So, why now? What has prompted this sudden embrace of tokenisation by the financial establishment?

The answer, as it often does, lies with the client. According to JPM's own head of global liquidity, there's been a "massive amount of interest from clients around tokenisation." This isn't about chasing the latest fad; it's about responding to fundamental shifts in expectations regarding transaction speed and efficiency.

According to analysts, tokenised MMFs can also be viewed as a strategic countermove to the booming stablecoin market, offering a regulated, yield-bearing alternative for those seeking a safer haven than the sometimes turbulent waters of purely crypto-based assets.

Reports reveleaed JPMorgan isn't alone in this endeavor. BlackRock's BUIDL fund is already a behemoth, managing a staggering $2.9 billion. HSBC, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, and Santander are all actively engaged in tokenisation experiments. The race, it seems, is on.

Furthermore, regulatory tailwinds, particularly the recent "Genius Act" in the U.S., providing much-needed clarity for stablecoins, have significantly reduced the perceived risk for traditional financial institutions venturing into this space.

It's worth remembering that JPMorgan has been quietly laying the groundwork for this moment for years, building internal blockchain infrastructure since 2015. MONY's launch on a public blockchain represents a significant, and perhaps surprisingly open, step forward.

Not all sunshine and smart contracts: The MONY maze of controversies & risks

However, let's not paint too rosy a picture. The path to widespread tokenisation is paved with potential pitfalls and controversies.

The "Dimon Dilemma," as it might be called, is impossible to ignore. The irony of JPM launching on Ethereum after its CEO's scathing remarks about cryptocurrency has not been lost on the crypto community, sparking debate and even calls for boycotts. One can almost hear the echoes of past pronouncements haunting the present.

Even within JPMorgan, skepticism persists. Some of the bank's own analysts have described broad institutional tokenisation adoption as "disappointing," suggesting that the enthusiasm may be driven more by crypto-natives than by a genuine need within traditional finance.

Then there's the question of speed. Is blockchain truly faster than existing fintech solutions for settlement? Some argue that the promised efficiency gains remain largely theoretical.

Perhaps the most significant concern is the potential for a "liquidity mismatch." Analysts noted the promise of 24/7 blockchain redemption could clash with the slower, more traditional settlement cycles of the underlying assets. In a market downturn, this discrepancy could lead to significant problems.

Furthermore, reliance on public blockchains introduces new risks, including cyber-attacks, smart contract vulnerabilities, and service outages. The need for "allow-listing" can also fragment liquidity, undermining one of the key benefits of tokenisation. In practice, this means that only pre-approved, compliant investors are permitted to hold or transfer the tokens, thereby limiting their free circulation.

The regulatory landscape, despite recent progress, remains a "Wild West" in many respects, creating "blurry spaces" and compliance complexities, especially when dealing with cross-border transactions.

The close ties between tokenised funds and stablecoins also raise concerns about contagion. A crisis in one could quickly spread to the other, amplifying financial risks.

And let's not forget the warnings coming from major financial watchdogs like the Bank for International Settlements, which have cautioned about the potential for tokenisation to introduce new systemic risks to the global financial system.

Gazing into the crystal ball: Will tokenisation take over the world?

Despite these challenges, the long-term potential of tokenisation remains undeniable. Analysts are predicting explosive growth in the tokenised asset market, with forecasts ranging from $10 trillion to a staggering $40 trillion by 2030. That's a lot of digital gold changing hands.

Looking ahead, several key innovations are worth watching:

• Fractional ownership: Imagine the democratisation of investment, with individuals able to own a small slice of real estate, fine art, or even private equity.
• Smarter, faster operations: Smart contracts automating compliance checks, dividend payments, and settlements, reducing costs and minimising human error.
• New assets on the blockchain: The tokenisation of intellectual property, carbon credits, and trade finance receivables, opening up new avenues for investment and liquidity.
• AI + Blockchain: The fusion of these technologies promises optimised investment strategies and enhanced risk management, ushering in a new era of data-driven finance.
• Unified ledgers & real-time transactions: The ultimate vision: central bank digital currencies, deposits, and assets all residing on a single, super-fast platform, enabling instant cross-border payments.

Analysts added tokenisation is unlikely to replace traditional finance entirely, but it will undoubtedly force it to become faster, cheaper, and more efficient. It could also create new revenue streams for banks, but it also poses a risk of "disintermediation" if traditional deposits can't compete with the yields offered by tokenised assets.

Wrap-up: JPMorgan's MONY - A glimpse into the future (with a few asterisks)

JPMorgan's MONY fund is more than just another product launch; it's a bold statement about the future of finance, according to market watchers. It highlights the immense potential for efficiency, transparency, and new investment opportunities.

But it's also a reminder that this is a complex and evolving landscape, fraught with regulatory, technical, and operational hurdles.

Is this the dawn of a new era, the beginning of a fundamental transformation of finance as we know it? Only time - and continued innovation (and, crucially, effective regulation) - will tell. For now, MONY offers a tantalising glimpse into a future that is both exciting and, perhaps, a little unsettling.

Markets are behaving as though they are standing on a fault line, and U.S. jobs data may determine which way the ground shifts. The dollar has slipped towards a two-month low, gold is hovering near record territory after a 64% rally this year, and Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a liquidity asset rather than a speculative outlier.

The delayed U.S. employment reports for October and November arrive at a moment when investors are no longer asking whether growth is slowing, but how quickly policy will respond. With futures markets leaning towards rate cuts in early 2026, the jobs data could be the trigger that forces markets - and the Federal Reserve - to confront that reality.

What’s driving the focus on US jobs data?

The unusual importance of this week’s labour data stems from timing and context rather than the numbers alone. The reports cover a period disrupted by the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, which delayed releases and stripped out several familiar data points. 

Even without a complete unemployment breakdown, the figures offer the clearest read yet on how resilient the labour market was as policy uncertainty peaked.

That matters because the Fed’s policy stance now rests heavily on employment, according to analysts. Inflation has cooled unevenly, and officials have signalled that further progress depends on demand softening without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness. 

Fed funds futures reflect that tension, with markets pricing a 75.6% probability of a rate hold in January, while quietly building expectations for cuts if labour conditions deteriorate further.

Why it matters

According to analysts, labour data sits at the intersection of growth, inflation and financial stability. Strong hiring gives the Fed cover to keep rates restrictive, while signs of weakness risk exposing how narrow the path has become. Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, said the delayed reports would help “give closure on how U.S. employment conditions were panning out during the shutdown,” adding that the dollar remains vulnerable if the data disappoints.

For policymakers, the stakes extend beyond markets. Fed Governor Stephen Miran recently argued that current inflation readings overstate underlying pressure, suggesting price dynamics are closer to the 2% target than headlines imply. 

According to experts, job data confirms that labour demand is cooling, weakening the argument for patience, even if inflation has not fully subsided.

Impact on markets, assets and consumers

The dollar has already begun to reflect that uncertainty. The U.S. dollar index slipped to around 98.26 in early Asian trade, while the greenback eased against the yen to 155.07 as traders positioned ahead of the data. Currency markets appear increasingly sensitive to labour signals as rate differentials narrow.

Gold’s response has been more pronounced. After a brief pullback following five consecutive days of gains, spot prices edged higher again to around $4,311 an ounce, supported by a softer dollar and expectations of looser policy, before another minor pullback. 

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, noted that subdued dollar performance is keeping gold “on the front foot,” with markets questioning whether the Fed is underestimating future rate cuts.

U.S. stock futures, on the other hand, were little changed at the start of the week as investors avoided fresh risk ahead of the delayed November jobs report. Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged modestly higher after Monday’s losses, while the Dow hovered near flat, signalling caution rather than conviction.

Technology shares led the decline in the previous session as concerns over AI valuations lingered following weak earnings from companies such as Oracle and Broadcom. Those worries, however, have taken a back seat as attention shifts to macro risks. The November nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show a muted gain of around 50,000 jobs, with unemployment seen at 4.4%, numbers that could shape expectations for whether the Fed pauses or accelerates easing in 2026

Crypto markets have taken a different path. Bitcoin and major altcoins slid as traders reduced leverage ahead of the data, triggering more than $470 million in liquidations in 24 hours. Yet history suggests that once labour weakness reshapes policy expectations, liquidity-sensitive assets often recover, sometimes sharply.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts see asymmetric risks around the jobs data. ANZ has flagged upside risks for gold if employment proves to be a weak spot, suggesting prices could test $5,000 an ounce next year should rate cuts arrive sooner than expected.

The broader challenge is interpretation. This week’s jobs report lands alongside delayed retail sales, CPI, PCE inflation and housing data, all compressed into a narrow window. Markets are likely to react not just to the numbers themselves, but to how consistently they point towards a slowing economy. The jobs data may not deliver clarity on its own, but it could still act as the catalyst that forces expectations to realign.

Key takeaway

U.S. jobs data has become the pressure point where concerns about growth and policy expectations collide. A softer labour picture would reinforce the case for rate cuts, weakening the dollar while supporting gold and liquidity-driven assets. Volatility is likely as multiple delayed releases arrive at once. Investors should watch not just the headline figures, but how decisively they reshape the Fed’s narrative heading into 2026.

Gold technical insights

Gold remains in a constructive but consolidative phase after its sharp rally, with price stalling just below the US$4,365 resistance as profit-taking emerges. Momentum indicators suggest a cooling rather than a reversal: the RSI has eased slightly below 70, signalling that overbought conditions are being worked off, while the MACD remains firmly in positive territory, with a flattening histogram indicating slowing upside momentum rather than outright weakness. 

As long as price holds above the US$4,035 support zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A decisive break above US$4,365 would likely reignite trend momentum, while a failure to hold key support could expose deeper liquidation towards US$3,935.

Many consider Nvidia to have become the market’s most reliable signal for whether the artificial intelligence boom is grounded in reality or drifting towards excess. As the dominant supplier of chips powering large language models and data centres, its revenues reflect actual AI spending rather than speculative intent. When confidence in Nvidia wavers, it typically signals that investors are questioning the sustainability of the broader AI market.

That scrutiny is growing. After three years of relentless AI investment following ChatGPT’s launch, the sector now faces slowing growth expectations, ballooning capital costs, and tougher questions around monetisation. 

With the Nasdaq 100 trading near 26 times forward earnings, far below dot-com extremes but well above long-term averages, Nvidia sits at the centre of a debate that could shape markets well into 2026 based on recent reports.

What’s driving Nvidia’s role in the AI cycle?

Nvidia matters because it sells the infrastructure that enables AI. Training and running advanced models still depend heavily on its GPUs, making the company a direct beneficiary of data-centre expansion across the US, Europe, and Asia. Unlike software firms pitching future use cases, Nvidia’s order flow shows whether AI demand is translating into physical investment.

That position also makes the stock highly sensitive to any slowdown in spending, according to analysts. When hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon signal caution on capital expenditure, or when projects are delayed due to power constraints or financing pressures, Nvidia is often the first major name to react. Its share price has increasingly behaved like a real-time referendum on whether the AI buildout is accelerating or plateauing.

Concerns have also emerged around how that demand is funded. Nvidia has committed substantial sums to supporting customers and partners as part of broader ecosystem investments, prompting debate over whether certain parts of the AI supply chain are relying on circular financing. While not inherently negative, it adds complexity at a stage when investors want clarity on organic demand rather than financial engineering.

Why it matters

Market watchers noted Nvidia’s influence extends far beyond its own balance sheet. The stock has become a proxy for the health of the entire AI ecosystem, encompassing cloud providers, chipmakers, utilities, and data center builders. When Nvidia rallies, it reinforces confidence that AI investment is productive. When it falters, it raises doubts about whether capital is being deployed faster than returns can justify.

That dynamic matters because AI exposure has become crowded. Data revealed that a large share of the S&P 500’s gains over the past three years has been driven by a narrow group of technology leaders and their suppliers. As one portfolio manager recently put it, stocks like Nvidia do not struggle when growth slows slightly - they struggle when growth stops accelerating. In that environment, even small disappointments can trigger sharp repositioning.

Impact on the AI infrastructure market

Recent moves in AI-linked stocks underline this sensitivity. Oracle’s shares dropped sharply after the company reported higher-than-expected capital spending and softer cloud growth, highlighting the tension between aggressive data-centre investment and near-term profitability. 

Although Oracle insisted its expansion plans remain intact, the market reaction rippled through the AI supply chain, including Nvidia.

Analysts expressed that the episode reinforced a key risk facing the sector: AI infrastructure is colliding with real-world constraints. Building data centres requires vast amounts of capital, electricity, skilled labour, and time. Delays or cost overruns may not derail the long-term AI thesis, but they do compress margins and extend payback periods - precisely the outcomes investors fear at this stage of the cycle.

Geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty. Nvidia remains exposed to export controls and shifting China policy, which can affect revenue visibility even as global AI demand grows. That headline risk does not undermine the technology’s importance, but it does cap how much optimism markets are willing to price in.

Expert outlook

Most analysts do not expect an abrupt collapse similar to the dot-com bust. Today’s AI leaders are larger, more profitable, and better capitalised than their late-1990s counterparts. Instead, the more plausible outcome is a rotation within the AI trade, where investors favour companies with clear cash generation and scale, while reassessing richly valued names that rely on flawless execution.

For Nvidia, the next phase hinges on execution rather than hype. Markets will watch to see whether hyperscalers maintain their capital spending as depreciation costs rise, whether demand broadens beyond a handful of dominant buyers, and whether AI revenue growth can absorb the scale of infrastructure investment underway. If Nvidia continues to deliver against those tests, it may deflate bubble fears. If not, its share price is likely to reflect a market recalibrating expectations rather than abandoning AI altogether.

Key takeaway

Nvidia has become the market’s clearest gauge of whether the AI boom is sustainable or stretched. Its position at the heart of AI infrastructure means it reflects real investment decisions, not just optimism. While fears of an outright bubble may be premature, the era of unquestioned enthusiasm is fading. The next signals will come from spending discipline, execution, and whether AI can turn scale into durable profits, according to experts.

Nvidia technical insights

At the start of writing, NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading near $176, hovering just above the critical $175.00 support level. This zone is key for short-term direction - a sustained break below it could trigger sell liquidations and expose the downside, while holding above it keeps the door open for a stabilisation phase. 

On the upside, NVDA faces layered resistance at $196.00 and $207.40, both areas where traders typically expect profit-taking or renewed buying attempts if momentum improves. Price action reflects ongoing consolidation after a sharp pullback from recent highs. Candles remain compressed, signalling hesitation as the market weighs whether the broader correction has run its course or has further to go.

The RSI, currently around 63, is rising slowly near the midline, suggesting modest momentum recovery rather than a strong bullish reversal. This suggests a market still seeking conviction, with NVDA likely to remain range-bound unless buyers can convincingly reclaim the $196 resistance zone.

USD/JPY is losing its carry trade cushion because the assumptions that kept the yen weak for more than a decade are starting to unravel. Japan’s era of near-zero interest rates is edging closer to its end, while the yield advantage that once made borrowing yen irresistible is narrowing. Business confidence among large Japanese manufacturers has climbed to its strongest level since 2021, and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 0.75% at its December meeting.

At the same time, the US dollar is no longer enjoying an unchallenged rate premium. Federal Reserve expectations have stabilised, but no longer move relentlessly higher. As the interest-rate gap compresses and hedging costs rise, the mechanics that supported persistent yen selling are weakening. That shift matters because USD/JPY has been one of the market’s most reliable carry trades - and those trades rarely unwind quietly.

What’s driving USD/JPY?

The core driver behind the change in USD/JPY is the Bank of Japan’s growing confidence that inflation and wages are no longer temporary phenomena. Japan’s inflation has exceeded the 2% target for more than three years, and the latest Tankan survey shows that companies now expect prices to rise by 2.4% one, three, and five years ahead, suggesting that inflation expectations are becoming anchored. 

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That marks a clear break from the deflationary mindset that dominated Japanese policy for decades. Corporate behaviour is reinforcing that signal. Large firms plan to increase capital expenditure by 12.6% in the current fiscal year, while labour shortages are at their most severe since 1991, during Japan’s asset bubble era. 

This tightening labour market supports wage growth, which the BoJ has repeatedly identified as a prerequisite for sustained rate increases. With firms able to pass higher costs on to consumers, policymakers now have a stronger justification to normalise policy without fearing an abrupt demand shock.

Why it matters

For currency markets, this is not just another rate hike story. It is a credibility shift. The yen has long been treated as a funding currency, sold almost by default whenever global risk appetite improved. That reflex was built on confidence that Japanese rates would remain anchored near zero indefinitely. The Tankan data, combined with increasingly hawkish language from Governor Kazuo Ueda, challenges that assumption.

Analysts argue that labour market dynamics are now doing much of the BoJ’s work for it. Capital Economics notes that acute labour shortages “lock in the virtuous cycle between higher wages and higher prices,” giving the central bank room to keep tightening without undermining growth. If investors accept that Japan’s neutral rate lies closer to 1.5–2.0%, USD/JPY valuations above 150 become harder to defend.

Impact on markets and the carry trade

The biggest casualty of this shift is the global yen carry trade. For years, investors borrowed cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding US and global assets, often leaving currency exposure unhedged because the yen weakened steadily. That strategy worked because funding costs were negligible and the policy outlook was static.

Now, both pillars are wobbling. As Japanese Government Bond yields rise and forward markets price further BoJ hikes into 2026, hedging the yen becomes more expensive. This does not trigger a sudden rush for the exits, but it encourages a gradual unwind. As positions are reduced and hedges are added, structural demand for the yen increases, placing steady downward pressure on USD/JPY, even if US yields remain elevated.

Expert outlook

Markets are increasingly focused on what comes after the December BoJ meeting. A quarter-point hike is largely priced in; the real signal will come from forward guidance. If the BoJ frames policy as moving towards a neutral rate rather than executing a one-off adjustment, the yen’s repricing could accelerate. 

Governor Ueda’s post-meeting press conference will be scrutinised for any indication that policy normalisation extends well into 2026. On the US side, the picture is more balanced. The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot shows just one rate cut pencilled in for 2026, a firmer stance than markets expected earlier this year. Even so, political pressure and slowing growth indicators limit how hawkish the Fed can become. With US labour and inflation data due this week, USD/JPY volatility may rise, but the broader trend increasingly favours a slow erosion of the pair’s carry-driven support.

Key takeaway

USD/JPY is no longer insulated by the carry trade dynamics that defined it for years. Japan’s improving inflation backdrop, tightening labour market and a more confident Bank of Japan are eroding the structural case for a weak yen. While the adjustment may be slow, the direction is increasingly clear. Traders should watch BoJ guidance, wage data and US macro releases for confirmation that this shift is becoming permanent.

USD/JPY technical insights

At the start of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 155.14, pulling back from recent highs after failing to sustain momentum above the 157.40 resistance level. This area remains a key upside barrier, where traders typically expect profit-taking unless the price can break higher convincingly. On the downside, immediate support sits at 155.10, followed by 153.55 and 151.76; a break below these levels is likely to trigger sell liquidations and a deeper corrective move.

Price action indicates that the pair is slipping back toward the middle of its Bollinger Band range, signalling a cooling of bullish momentum after the earlier rally. This suggests USD/JPY may enter a consolidation phase unless buyers quickly step back in.

The RSI, now around 56, is dipping sharply toward the midline, highlighting weakening momentum and growing caution among buyers. While this does not yet signal a trend reversal, it does point to near-term downside risks if support at 155.10 fails to hold.

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