After an explosive January rally that pushed gold close to $5,600 per ounce and sent silver more than 60% higher on the month, both metals have turned sharply lower. Gold slid nearly 4% in Asian trade, while silver retreated even more aggressively from record highs, raising doubts over whether the rally has simply overheated.

So far, the evidence points more towards a pause than a peak. The sell-off has been driven by profit-taking and renewed uncertainty over US monetary policy, rather than a collapse in the forces that powered the rally. With markets focused on President Donald Trump’s imminent pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, precious metals are recalibrating to expectations — not abandoning their longer-term narrative.

What’s driving the pullback in precious metals?

The immediate trigger for the decline has been political rather than economic. President Trump is expected to announce his nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh widely seen as the frontrunner. Warsh has previously supported sharper rate cuts and criticised the Fed’s policy stance, fuelling uncertainty around the future direction of US monetary policy. 

That uncertainty initially supported gold’s safe-haven appeal, pushing prices to record highs. However, once positioning became crowded, the same uncertainty began to work in the opposite direction. Traders moved to lock in profits as clarity approached, particularly after the US dollar rebounded from recent lows. When gold rises nearly 25% in a single month, it takes very little to trigger a correction.

Why it matters for gold and silver investors

The scale of the pullback matters because it reveals how much of the rally was driven by flows rather than fundamentals. Gold and silver were not only hedges against geopolitical risk, but also expressions of declining confidence in US assets, amid fiscal concerns, tariff threats, and public criticism of the Federal Reserve.

As Julius Baer strategist Carsten Menke warned, markets dominated by momentum do not require a major shock to reverse. “It does not need much for a correction,” he said, highlighting how fragile sentiment can become once enthusiasm peaks. For investors, this shift raises a critical question: whether the correction is clearing excess optimism, or exposing a deeper vulnerability in the metals trade.

How silver’s volatility is shaping the broader metals market

Silver has led both the rally and the retreat. Prices pulled back towards $113 after hitting a record high near $121.66, ending a seven-day winning streak. Despite the correction, silver remains on track for gains of over 60% this month, underscoring just how extreme recent price action has been.

Silver’s dual role amplifies its swings. Alongside safe-haven demand, it is heavily exposed to industrial growth expectations, making it more sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment. As US equity markets slid and investors reduced exposure across asset classes, silver bore the brunt of the liquidation, dragging broader precious metals sentiment with it.

Is this a pause or a peak? 

Despite the sharp pullback, the longer-term case for gold remains intact. Futures markets show smaller losses than spot prices, suggesting investors are not abandoning positions but trimming exposure. With inflation still elevated and markets pricing in the Fed’s next rate cut as early as June, lower real yields could continue to support gold over time.

The key risk is timing. If the dollar continues to strengthen and political pressure on the Fed eases, gold and silver may struggle to regain momentum immediately. However, renewed equity market stress or an escalation in geopolitical tensions would quickly revive safe-haven demand. In that sense, the recent decline looks more like a pause driven by positioning, rather than a definitive peak in the precious metals cycle.

Key takeaways

The recent pullback in gold and silver reflects a market that surged ahead of clarity, not one that has lost its foundation. Political uncertainty around the Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar have prompted profit-taking after an exceptional rally. Whether this proves to be a pause or a peak will depend on interest rates, the dollar, and global risk sentiment in the weeks ahead.

Gold technical outlook

Gold has pulled back from recent highs after a sharp acceleration, with price retreating from the upper Bollinger Band while volatility remains elevated. The Bollinger Bands are still widely expanded, indicating that the market remains in a high-volatility regime despite the recent pause. 

Momentum indicators remain stretched: the RSI is holding just above 70, suggesting that overbought conditions persist even as upward momentum has flattened. Trend strength remains exceptionally strong, with ADX readings elevated, indicating a mature, well-established trend phase. Structurally, price remains well above earlier consolidation zones around $4,035 and $3,935, underscoring the scale of the preceding advance. 

Silver technical outlook

Silver has retreated from recent highs following a sharp upside extension, with price pulling back from the upper Bollinger Band while remaining within a broadly elevated range. Despite the pullback, the Bollinger Bands remain widely expanded, indicating that volatility is still elevated relative to earlier periods. 

Momentum indicators show easing conditions: the RSI has dipped from overbought territory, signalling a moderation in upside momentum rather than a full reversal. Trend strength remains pronounced, with ADX readings still elevated, indicating a strong, mature trend environment. Structurally, price remains well above earlier consolidation zones around $72, $57, and $46.93, underscoring the scale of the prior advance.

Microsoft’s Azure “miss” says one thing very clearly about the AI trade: investors are no longer rewarding promise alone - they want visible returns. Azure growth of 39%, marginally below expectations, was enough to trigger a 10% sell-off and erase roughly $360 billion in market value, despite Microsoft beating revenue and earnings forecasts. 

That reaction marks a turning point. The AI trade is shifting from enthusiasm to scrutiny, from scale to efficiency. For Microsoft, and for Big Tech more broadly, the question is no longer whether AI demand exists, but whether the spending required to capture it can translate into sustainable profits.

What’s drove Microsoft’s Azure miss?

At face value, Azure’s performance was solid. Cloud revenue grew 39% year-on-year in the December quarter, comfortably ahead of most enterprise software peers. The problem was context. Growth slowed sequentially from 40%, and expectations for hyperscalers have become so elevated that even a fractional deceleration can unsettle confidence. 

Management attributed the shortfall to capacity constraints rather than weak demand. CFO Amy Hood said Microsoft prioritised internal AI workloads and first-party products over allocating newly available GPUs to Azure customers. That decision may support long-term strategy, but in the short term, it capped cloud growth - and reminded investors that infrastructure bottlenecks can delay returns on even the most promising AI investments.

Why it matters for the AI trade

Azure is more than a revenue line; it is the market’s primary yardstick for measuring Microsoft’s AI monetisation. When cloud growth slows, investors question whether record capital expenditures are yielding an adequate return. Microsoft spent $37.5 billion on capital investments in the quarter, largely tied to AI infrastructure, with management signalling elevated spending will continue. 

That imbalance between rising costs and capped growth is what rattled markets. KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader said Azure’s constant-currency growth disappointed relative to expectations, while UBS flagged limited evidence that Microsoft 365 Copilot is accelerating revenue. The message from investors is blunt: AI must start moving the needle financially, not just strategically. 

Impact on big tech and market sentiment

Microsoft’s sell-off spilled over into the broader technology sector. Software stocks fell sharply, dragging the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down 5%, while the Nasdaq also closed lower. 

The contrast with Meta’s recent post-earnings rally underscored a growing divide within Big Tech between companies delivering near-term margin expansion and those still absorbing heavy investment costs. 

The reaction also raises the stakes for upcoming earnings from Amazon and Alphabet. Investors will benchmark AWS and Google Cloud directly against Azure, looking for confirmation on whether cloud deceleration is company-specific or an industry-wide consequence of AI infrastructure strain. Any disappointment could reinforce the view that the AI trade is entering a more selective phase.

Expert outlook: Reset, not collapse

Despite the severity of the sell-off, Wall Street is not abandoning Microsoft. More than 95% of analysts still rate the stock a buy, with average price targets implying over 40% upside from current levels. Bernstein argued that management has deliberately prioritised long-term platform strength over short-term cloud optics, a trade-off that may only become clear over several quarters. 

What has changed is tolerance. Investors are less willing to give AI leaders the benefit of the doubt without measurable progress on margins and monetisation. For Microsoft, the next signals to watch are Azure capacity expansion, Copilot uptake, and whether capital expenditure begins to stabilise. The AI trade is not broken - but it is growing up.

Key takeaway

Microsoft’s Azure miss did not break the AI trade - it redefined it. Markets are no longer pricing AI leadership on ambition alone, but on delivery, margins, and discipline. Microsoft remains central to the AI story, but patience is thinning. The next phase of the trade will reward execution, not just scale.

Microsoft technical outlook

Microsoft has moved lower after failing to sustain earlier highs, trading beneath multiple prior resistance zones and near the lower end of its recent range. Bollinger Bands remain moderately expanded, indicating elevated volatility following the recent decline rather than a return to stable conditions. 

Momentum indicators show tentative stabilisation: the RSI is rising toward the midline after previously weaker readings, suggesting a moderation in downside momentum without a clear directional shift. Trend strength appears mixed, with the ADX indicating trend activity but no strong directional dominance. Structurally, price remains below former resistance areas around $490, $510, and $545, highlighting a chart configuration characterised by consolidation after a corrective phase rather than active price discovery.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $90,000 level more than once this year, yet each attempt has faded just as quickly. While the world’s largest cryptocurrency struggles to build momentum, traditional macro trades are stealing the spotlight. Gold has surged to fresh record highs above $5,500 an ounce, while oil prices have climbed to their strongest levels since September, reshaping inflation expectations and investor behaviour.

The contrast is striking. Bitcoin, often pitched as a hedge against monetary instability, is now trading around 30% below its October peak of $126,000, even as commodities thrive. Understanding why bitcoin cannot hold $90,000 requires looking beyond crypto narratives and into the macro forces now driving global markets.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s weakness?

At the heart of bitcoin’s struggle is a shift in monetary expectations. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, holding them in a 3.5%–3.75% range and signalling it wants clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before cutting again. While the decision itself was widely expected, the tone mattered. It pushed back against hopes for quick liquidity easing and helped stabilise the US dollar after days of volatility.

That firmer dollar has reduced one of bitcoin’s recent tailwinds. Earlier bouts of dollar weakness supported risk assets, but as the dollar index posted its biggest one-day gain since November, capital rotated back towards assets perceived as more reliable stores of value. Bitcoin briefly touched $90,000 during Wednesday’s session but failed to attract sustained follow-through, slipping back as macro traders refocused elsewhere.

Why Gold and Oil are winning the capital battle

Gold’s rally has been relentless. Prices have risen by more than 60% over the past year and have extended gains into 2026, driven by falling confidence in fiat currencies, geopolitical risk, and concerns about central bank independence. 

Even Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has increased its exposure, holding roughly 130 metric tons of physical gold and signalling plans to allocate up to 15% of its portfolio to bullion.

Oil has added another layer of pressure. West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed around 12% this month to above $64 a barrel, while Brent has followed a similar path. Rising energy prices feed directly into inflation, lifting costs across transport, manufacturing and consumer goods. That dynamic complicates the outlook for rate cuts and undermines assets like bitcoin that benefit from looser financial conditions.

Why it matters for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s inability to keep pace with gold exposes an uncomfortable reality. Despite its reputation as “digital gold,” the asset continues to trade more like a high-beta risk instrument than a defensive hedge. When inflation fears rise, investors are choosing bullion. When the dollar firms, bitcoin retreats.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said bitcoin needs to break and hold convincingly above $90,000 to attract fresh buying. “That would mean that $100,000 becomes the next bullish target,” he said, warning that without stronger support, a move back below $85,000 remains plausible. For now, conviction remains fragile.

Impact on the broader crypto market

The lack of momentum has weighed on the wider crypto complex. Ether has slipped back towards $2,950, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin have posted deeper intraday losses. Crypto has consistently lagged commodities and equities, even during periods when the dollar softened earlier this month.

This divergence reinforces the view that crypto remains sidelined in the current market regime. As metals and energy dominate global trading flows, bitcoin has struggled to develop an independent narrative. Traders increasingly see it responding to external macro signals rather than driving its own trend.

Expert outlook

Analysts say bitcoin’s next decisive move depends less on internal adoption stories and more on macro shifts. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that past rallies coincided with sharp dollar declines. This time, however, gold and silver have captured most of the upside from recent currency weakness.

Technically, bitcoin remains locked in consolidation. Resistance around $89,000–$90,000 is reinforced by the 50-day moving average, while support near $85,000 has so far held. Until inflation pressures ease, oil prices cool, or the Fed signals renewed easing, bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound rather than resuming a strong uptrend.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s failure to hold $90,000 is not a crypto-specific story but a macro one. As gold and oil surge, inflation risks rise and the Fed stays cautious, capital has flowed away from speculative assets. Until those pressures ease, bitcoin is likely to remain stuck in consolidation. The next major move will depend on inflation data, energy prices and shifts in central bank expectations.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following its earlier correction from highs, with price trading near the lower half of its recent range and holding above the $84,700 area. Bollinger Bands have narrowed compared with the prior expansion, indicating reduced volatility and a slowdown in directional momentum. 

Momentum indicators show a softening profile, with the RSI dipping below the midline, reflecting weakening upside momentum after a brief recovery attempt. Trend strength remains elevated, as evidenced by high ADX readings, though directional indicators suggest the trend has lost momentum. Structurally, price continues to oscillate beneath the former resistance zones around $107,000 and $114,000, pointing to a market environment characterised by consolidation rather than active price discovery.

What comes next for the Magnificent 7 is no longer about whether growth continues, but how much investors are willing to pay for it. The Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rates at 3.50–3.75%, after cutting 175 basis points since September 2024, removes a key macro tailwind that has quietly supported big tech valuations over the past year. 

With inflation still described as “somewhat elevated”, the message was clear: policy support is on hold. That pause arrives just as Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla have laid bare the true cost of leading the AI revolution. 

Earnings beat expectations, but capital spending surged, margins came under scrutiny, and markets responded with caution rather than celebration. The next phase for the Magnificent 7 will be decided less by innovation headlines and more by execution, discipline, and returns.

What’s driving the magnificent 7?

At the macro level, the Fed’s stance has shifted the investment backdrop. Policymakers signalled confidence in economic momentum heading into 2026, noting stabilising unemployment and inflation that remains above target. Two dissenting votes for a modest 25-basis-point cut reflected debate, not urgency. For equity markets, that suggests interest rates may stay restrictive for longer, raising the bar for growth stocks.

At the corporate level, artificial intelligence continues to dominate strategy. Microsoft’s capital expenditure jumped 66% year-on-year to $37.5 billion, while Meta raised its fiscal 2026 capex outlook to as high as $135 billion. These figures reflect a structural shift rather than a short-term cycle. AI is no longer an optional growth lever; it is core infrastructure that demands sustained investment regardless of market sentiment.

Why it matters

The reaction to earnings revealed an important change in market behaviour. Microsoft delivered strong headline numbers, with earnings of $4.14 per share beating expectations, yet its shares fell in after-hours trading. Azure revenue came in slightly below consensus, and investors fixated on ballooning AI commitments rather than near-term profits.

That response underlines a broader theme: markets are becoming less forgiving. “The AI build-out phase is now priced in. What investors want to see is monetisation,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, warning that capital discipline will increasingly differentiate winners from laggards. For the Magnificent 7, scale alone is no longer enough to command premium valuations.

Impact on markets and the AI ecosystem

Recent data showed that the immediate market impact was uneven. The Nasdaq stalled just below record highs, while Dow futures dipped amid Microsoft's weight on the index. Nvidia, often viewed as the purest AI proxy, edged lower in extended trading despite remaining technically strong, suggesting consolidation rather than capitulation.

Beyond equities, the ripple effects were visible elsewhere. Gold and silver prices rose as investors hedged against valuation risk and policy uncertainty, while crude oil gained on expectations that data centre expansion will drive sustained energy demand. The Magnificent 7’s decisions are now influencing capital flows well beyond the technology sector.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, market watchers expressed that the next phase for the Magnificent 7 hinges on whether AI investment begins to translate into durable profitability. Tesla’s results illustrated this tension. While earnings exceeded expectations, revenue fell short, and the company outlined plans to exceed $20 billion in capital spending in 2026, more than double last year’s level. Ambition remains high, but investors' patience may not be unlimited.

Key signals will arrive over the coming weeks. Nvidia’s earnings will test whether AI demand continues to justify current valuations, while upcoming inflation data will shape expectations for the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. 

With rates on hold and capital costs rising, the Magnificent 7 are entering a phase where returns, not narratives, will drive performance.

Key takeaway

The Fed’s pause has shifted the conversation around the Magnificent 7 from momentum to sustainability. AI growth remains powerful, but the cost of leadership is rising fast. Investors are beginning to ask tougher questions about returns on capital. What comes next will depend on whether earnings can justify the scale of ambition in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Gold breaking above $5,000 an ounce has done more than smash a psychological level - it has rendered much of Wall Street’s forecasting obsolete, according to analysts. Prices surged to a record near $5,600 this week, extending gains of more than 10% in days and over 27% this year, following a 64% rally in 2025. Silver has followed closely, climbing towards $120 an ounce as investors seek cheaper exposure to the same forces driving gold.

What makes this rally stand out is not just its speed, but its foundation. Demand is accelerating across central banks, institutions and retail investors, while supply remains stubbornly constrained. With geopolitical risk, sovereign debt concerns and reserve diversification converging, gold’s surge raises a larger question: is this the late stage of a cycle - or the beginning of a structural repricing?

What’s driving Gold’s surge?

Gold’s price action is best explained by what hasn’t changed. Supply growth remains slow and predictable, expanding by roughly 1–2% a year. Higher prices do little to unlock new production, as mine development can take years, and often decades. When gold rallies sharply, it is almost always demand - not supply - doing the work.

That demand has shifted decisively. Central banks, once persistent sellers, have become aggressive buyers. Annual purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes in both 2024 and 2025, more than double the long-term average. 

The freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves marked a turning point, underscoring the vulnerability of fiat-based reserves and reinforcing gold’s appeal as an asset with no counterparty risk.

Investment demand has amplified the move. After years of ETF outflows, gold-backed funds saw inflows in 2025, surpassing those seen during the 2008 financial crisis and approaching pandemic-era extremes. At the same time, physical markets have tightened, with strong retail demand reported across Asia as buyers respond to visible scarcity rather than speculative momentum.

Why it matters

Gold’s rise above $5,000 is not just a commodity story - it reflects a deeper shift in how investors perceive risk. Confidence in traditional safe assets, particularly government bonds, has weakened as debt levels rise and real yields struggle to keep pace with inflation and fiscal uncertainty. The idea of “risk-free” assets is being quietly re-evaluated.

This has changed gold’s role in portfolios. “Gold is no longer just a crisis hedge or an inflation hedge; it is increasingly viewed as a neutral and reliable store of value across a wide range of macro regimes,” OCBC analysts noted recently. That reframing helps explain why pullbacks have been brief and shallow, even as prices enter uncharted territory.

Impact on markets and investors

The rally has triggered a feedback loop across precious metals. As gold prices rise, silver has attracted investors priced out of the yellow metal. Spot silver climbed above $117 this week after briefly touching a record near $119, gaining more than 60% this year. Analysts at Standard Chartered expect another market deficit in 2026, citing tight above-ground stocks as the key constraint.

Gold’s strength has also persisted despite headwinds that would normally cap gains. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week, and upbeat earnings from major US technology firms supported the dollar and risk assets. Yet gold remained elevated, signalling that monetary policy is no longer the dominant driver.

Institutional behaviour reinforces that view. Crypto-focused investment groups have announced plans to allocate up to 15% of portfolios to physical gold, blending digital and traditional hedges against currency debasement. The flow into gold is increasingly defensive and strategic, not speculative.

Expert outlook

The rally's pace suggests volatility lies ahead. Analysts warn that gold’s parabolic ascent increases the risk of near-term pullbacks as positioning becomes stretched. However, most expect any correction to be viewed as an opportunity rather than a reversal, given the strength of underlying demand.

Looking further out, historical comparisons offer perspective. During the late 1970s, gold’s strongest gains came near the end of the cycle, with prices rising over 120% in a single year. When today’s bull market is overlaid on that period on a logarithmic scale, the alignment suggests a potential range of $8,700–$9,000 before the end of 2026. That is not a prediction, but a scenario grounded in persistent demand growth and structurally limited supply (Source: Reuters analysis, January 2026).

Key takeaway

Gold above $5,000 is not a sign the rally is exhausted - it is evidence that older valuation frameworks no longer apply. Demand from central banks and investors continues to overwhelm constrained supply, while confidence in fiat-based assets erodes. Volatility is likely, but the forces driving gold higher remain structural and global. The real test now is whether those pressures intensify as markets move deeper into 2026.

Gold technical outlook

Gold has accelerated further into price discovery, extending to new highs above the US$5,500 area and continuing to trade along the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands remain widely expanded, highlighting sustained volatility and persistent directional momentum following the latest surge. 

Momentum indicators show extreme conditions: the RSI is rising sharply and remains deep in overbought territory, while the ADX is exceptionally elevated, pointing to a very strong, mature trend phase. Structurally, price remains far above earlier consolidation zones around $4,035 and $3,935, underscoring the magnitude and persistence of the advance. Overall, the chart depicts an extended momentum-driven environment characterised by strong trend intensity, elevated volatility, and active price discovery.

XRP’s price action is telling a familiar crypto story: analysts say institutions are still buying while retail traders are quietly stepping away. Spot ETF inflows into XRP surged to almost $8 million in a single session, extending a four-day streak of institutional demand. Yet price momentum continues to weaken, weighed down by falling futures activity and shrinking liquidity.

At the same time, XRP futures open interest has slipped close to yearly lows around $3.29 billion, signalling fading conviction among leveraged traders.

 This growing imbalance between institutional flows and retail participation is shaping XRP’s near-term outlook and raising questions about whether ETF demand alone can stabilise prices.

What’s driving XRP’s slippage?

The most immediate drag on XRP is coming from the derivatives market. Futures open interest, which reflects the total value of outstanding leveraged positions, is hovering just above its year-low. When open interest declines, it usually means traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones, reducing speculative momentum and weakening price support.

This trend is not isolated to XRP. Across the crypto market, futures activity has contracted sharply. Total crypto open interest has fallen to $128 billion, the weakest level since early January, according to CoinGlass. As liquidity dries up, altcoins tend to suffer first, particularly those like XRP that rely heavily on speculative participation to drive short-term price moves.

Why it matters

Despite the weak derivatives backdrop, institutional interest in XRP has remained intact. Data from SoSoValue shows that XRP spot ETFs attracted nearly $8 million in inflows on Monday, more than double Friday’s total. Cumulative inflows now stand at $1.24 billion, with net assets reaching $1.36 billion, signalling sustained demand from longer-term investors. 

However, this institutional support has limits. As Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, explains, “liquidity is shrinking across channels,” noting that recent ETF inflows came after $1.3 billion of outflows last week. Without retail traders adding volume and leverage, ETF buying may slow price declines, but struggle to ignite a meaningful recovery.

Impact on the crypto market

XRP’s weakness reflects a broader shift in market behaviour. As macro uncertainty persists, capital has rotated away from speculative assets and into safer havens. Within crypto, this has favoured Bitcoin over altcoins, leaving tokens like XRP exposed when liquidity conditions tighten.

The effect is already visible in price action. XRP recently recorded seven consecutive down sessions, extending a longer-term pattern in which it has declined in 13 of the past 14 trading days. In low-liquidity environments, even modest selling pressure can push prices lower, reinforcing bearish sentiment and discouraging fresh participation.

Expert outlook

Analysts remain cautious on XRP’s near-term prospects. While ETF inflows provide a structural bid, they are not enough to offset declining derivatives participation. A sustained recovery would likely require a rebound in futures open interest alongside improving trading volumes and broader risk appetite.

For now, XRP appears vulnerable to further downside if liquidity conditions do not improve. Traders will be watching closely for signs of renewed speculative interest, particularly any stabilisation in open interest or a shift in broader crypto sentiment. Until then, institutional inflows may act as a buffer rather than a catalyst.

Key takeaway

XRP’s decline highlights a widening gap between institutional interest and retail participation. While ETF inflows continue to provide support, fading derivatives activity and shrinking liquidity are weighing on prices. Until speculative demand returns, XRP may remain under pressure. The next key signal to watch is whether futures open interest begins to recover.

XRP technical outlook

XRP is stabilising after a sharp advance and subsequent pullback, with price now consolidating near the mid-range of its recent structure. Bollinger Bands have narrowed following a prior expansion, indicating a contraction in volatility as directional momentum has eased. 

Momentum indicators reflect this moderation: the RSI is rising gradually toward the midline, suggesting improving momentum from previously weaker levels without a return to overbought conditions. Trend strength remains present but less pronounced, with ADX readings indicating a slowdown in directional intensity compared with earlier phases. 

Structurally, price remains bounded between the upper zones near $2.40–2.60 and the lower region around $1.80, reflecting a market environment characterised by consolidation rather than active price discovery.

Silver hasn’t just rallied, it has erupted, soaring nearly 3x in a year and smashing through $100/oz, even as one of Wall Street’s most famous strategists warns the metal is “almost guaranteed” to drop about 50% from here. Former JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic says silver’s parabolic move is a classic speculative blow-off.

How extreme is the silver rally?

Over the past year, silver has rocketed from the low‑30s to record intraday highs around $115–$118 per ounce, delivering roughly a 250–270% gain and outpacing gold and most major equity benchmarks. 

Citi notes that the surge has already pushed silver to an all‑time intraday high near $117.7, compressing the gold‑to‑silver ratio below 50 and underscoring how violently the trade has shifted in silver’s favour. For context, the last major spike in 2011 stalled near $50 before a bruising multi‑year bear market, making today’s price level unprecedented in nominal terms.

Analysts note that this move has turned silver from a sleepy precious metal into a headline‑grabbing momentum asset, with intraday swings measured in double‑digit percentages. Such volatility is typical of the late stages of commodity booms, where marginal flows and sentiment, not slow‑moving fundamentals, dominate price action.

The bear case: Kolanovic’s “almost guaranteed” 50% crash

Kolanovic’s warning is blunt: he says silver is “almost guaranteed to drop ~50% from these levels within a year or so,” arguing that the current spike bears all the hallmarks of a speculative bubble. 

He points to heavy momentum buying, meme‑style trading behavior, and macro‑fear positioning as key drivers, rather than durable improvements in underlying fundamentals. In his view, silver is trading less like a traditional store of value and more like a leveraged macro instrument that can overshoot violently in both directions.

The logic is grounded in history: commodities that go parabolic rarely plateau smoothly; they tend to mean‑revert hard as positioning unwinds and marginal buyers disappear. The 2011 silver bust and the wild boom‑bust cycles of the 1970s are often cited examples where deep drawdowns followed euphoric peaks without necessarily ending longer‑term secular themes. 

Kolanovic underscores that, unlike purely fictional assets, commodity bubbles eventually collide with physical reality as high prices destroy industrial demand, accelerate recycling, and incentivise new hedged supply.

The bull case: Citi’s $150 target and “gold on steroids”

On the other hand, Citi’s commodities team has become tactically more bullish, raising its 0–3 month silver price target to $150 per ounce, implying another 30–40% upside from recent levels. Citi’s Maximilian Layton writes, “We remain tactically bullish and upgrade our 0–3m point price target to $150/oz,” framing silver’s current behaviour as “gold squared” or “gold on steroids” as capital flows chase macro hedges. 

The bank argues that the rally is being driven primarily by capital flows and speculative demand rather than traditional fundamentals, but believes those flows still have room to run before the market looks expensive relative to gold.

Citi highlights three main supports: heightened geopolitical risks, renewed concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and strong investment and speculative demand led by Chinese and other Asian investors. 

Reporting on the call notes that physical supply outside the United States looks tight, with high premiums in key markets and persistent deficits expected in the coming years. In this framework, silver is expected to overshoot higher before any major normalisation, especially if trend‑following retail flows in China and elsewhere continue to pile into the trade.

Industrial demand, solar, and the substitution risk

Beneath the speculative froth, silver remains a workhorse industrial metal: industrial applications now account for roughly 58% of global silver demand, with renewable energy, electronics, and automotive uses especially important.

The Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect industrial demand to reach about 700 million ounces, driven largely by photovoltaics, where silver’s conductivity makes it critical for solar cells. Recent estimates suggest solar alone could represent around 19–20% of total silver demand in 2024, roughly 230 million ounces, and that solar demand has almost doubled versus 2022.

At the same time, high prices are already accelerating “silver thrifting” and substitution by cheaper base metals in some applications. Industry reports describe leading module manufacturers such as LONGi working to cut silver loadings in their solar cells, exploring copper‑based metallisation and other innovations to reduce cost exposure. 

This creates a tension: structurally tight supply and booming green‑economy demand support the bull case, but very high prices also sow the seeds of future demand destruction and substitution - exactly the dynamic Kolanovic warns about.

Positioning, ETFs, China and the new momentum trade

This silver rally looks different from previous cycles because the speculative center of gravity sits elsewhere. Citi observes that several historically bearish signals - such as falling global silver ETF holdings and declining COMEX positioning - have failed to slow prices, indicating that much of the buying is coming from Asian futures and OTC markets rather than Western ETFs. 

Coverage of the move notes that Chinese retail traders have been key players, prompting authorities to tighten conditions, including raising futures margins and limiting new subscriptions to a major domestic silver ETF.

Western vehicles like iShares Silver Trust, Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver, and Sprott Physical Silver Trust remain important gateways for macro and retail investors, but they no longer appear to be the main marginal drivers of this latest leg higher. 

Kolanovic’s warning explicitly frames silver ETFs as crowded macro trades at risk of a sharp positioning unwind, while bearish ETF‑focused products have emerged to let investors position against what some call a “parabolic mania.” Both camps, bull and bear, implicitly agree on one crucial point: positioning is extreme, and any shift in flows could translate into very large moves in either direction over a short period.

What a 50% drawdown or a spike to $150 could mean

Market watchers noted that if Kolanovic is right and silver trades at roughly half its recent price by late 2026, a move from around $110–$115 to the $50–$60 range would inflict heavy losses on late‑cycle buyers, leveraged traders, and higher‑cost miners. Such a drawdown would be painful but not historically unprecedented when measured against prior busts in silver and other commodities. It could also relieve some pressure on industrial users and accelerate a rebalancing where thrifting and substitution slow, demand stabilises and the metal potentially builds a base for the next secular leg higher.

If Citi’s tactical bull case plays out instead, a spike to $150 would further compress the gold–silver ratio and cement silver’s status as the high‑beta expression of macro fear and liquidity. 

However, such levels would likely intensify policy responses in key markets - through tighter margin rules, curbs on speculative access or other measures - and turbo‑charge efforts in solar and electronics to engineer silver out of as many applications as possible. Citi itself cautions that, while the medium‑ to long‑term supply‑demand balance looks tight, short‑term volatility could increase after such a sharp run‑up.

Key takeaway

Silver now sits at an inflection point between momentum and mean reversion. On one side, Citi sees powerful macro flows, tight physical supply, and speculative demand pushing prices as high as $150 in the near term. On the other, Marko Kolanovic warns that history rarely treats parabolic commodity moves kindly, with a 50% drawdown a familiar outcome once positioning unwinds and high prices start to destroy demand.

For traders and investors, the message is clear: silver may still have upside, but it is no longer a quiet inflation hedge - it is a high-volatility, high-conviction macro trade where timing and risk management matter more than ever.

Silver technical outlook

Silver has continued to move higher into new price territory, tracking the upper Bollinger Band as volatility remains elevated. The Bollinger Bands are widely expanded, indicating a sustained high-volatility environment following the recent acceleration. 

Momentum indicators show extreme readings, with the RSI in overbought territory and the ADX at elevated levels, reflecting a strong, mature trend phase. From a structural perspective, current prices sit well above earlier consolidation areas around $72, $57, and $46.93, illustrating the scale of the recent move.

The Federal Reserve is expected to stand still today because it cannot afford to move, analysts say. With inflation stuck near 3%, unemployment edging higher, and economic growth running far hotter than expected, the January FOMC meeting is set to deliver a rate hold that reflects caution rather than confidence. Markets are not expecting policy action, but they are watching closely for what Chair Jerome Powell says about where the next move might come from.

Futures markets are pricing in a roughly 97% probability that interest rates remain unchanged, shifting attention firmly toward the second half of 2026. 

With GDP growth tracking at an annualised 5.4% and political pressure on the Fed intensifying, today’s meeting is less about interest rates and more about credibility, independence, and timing.

What’s driving the January FOMC decision?

The Fed’s decision to stay on hold today is rooted in an unusual economic split. The US economy is growing rapidly, yet the labour market is cooling rather than overheating. Unemployment has risen to 4.4%, while hiring has slowed across several sectors, challenging the traditional link between strong growth and job creation.

At the same time, inflation remains uncomfortably high. Consumer prices have climbed back to around 2.7–3.0%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. A major contributor has been tariffs, which have pushed the effective US tariff rate close to 17%, according to Yale Budget Lab estimates. Those higher import costs, running at nearly $30bn per month, are feeding through to retail prices despite efforts by large firms such as Walmart and Amazon to absorb some of the impact.

This combination leaves the Fed boxed in. Cutting rates risks reigniting inflation just as price pressures are firming. Holding rates, however, risks further weakening the labour market. Today’s decision reflects the Fed’s judgment that inflation risks still outweigh growth concerns.

Why it matters

For policymakers, today’s meeting reinforces how narrow the path has become. The Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment is pulling in opposite directions, forcing officials to prioritise inflation control even as unemployment rises. That tension explains why today’s statement is expected to offer little guidance on timing future cuts.

Bank of America expects Powell to emphasise patience and data dependence rather than signalling policy shifts. The focus is likely to be on whether the current strength in growth implies a higher neutral interest rate, a view that would justify keeping rates restrictive for longer. Political context may also loom larger than usual, as the Fed seeks to avoid appearing reactive amid growing pressure from the White House.

Impact on markets, borrowers, and FX

For households and businesses, a Fed on pause means limited near-term relief. While the central bank does not set mortgage or loan rates directly, its stance influences Treasury yields, which underpin most lending costs. With policy rates unchanged, borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and business loans are likely to remain elevated.

In financial markets, attention has already shifted beyond today’s meeting. The US dollar has weakened, with the dollar index slipping toward the 97 level as traders price in eventual easing and apply what some analysts describe as a “governance discount” to US assets. 

The euro has climbed toward $1.19, while sterling has risen to near $1.37, supported by expectations of a global soft landing. Gold’s rally above $5,100 tells a similar story. Rather than flocking to the dollar in uncertain times, investors appear increasingly drawn to hard assets as political friction clouds confidence in US monetary policy.

Expert outlook: What markets are really waiting for

Most analysts agree that today’s FOMC meeting is a checkpoint rather than a turning point. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to remain on hold for several more months, forecasting two rate cuts in 2026 beginning around June. CFRA’s Sam Stovall shares that view, arguing the Fed will wait until inflation shows clearer signs of easing before acting.

Politics, however, complicates the outlook. Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and markets are increasingly sensitive to what comes next. Rabobank has described the current environment as the “eye of the storm”, suggesting that expectations for a June rate cut are tied as much to potential leadership changes as to economic data. If markets are wrong about a more dovish future Fed, volatility across bonds, equities, and currencies could rise sharply.

Key takeaway

Today’s January FOMC meeting confirms that the Federal Reserve is choosing caution over conviction. With inflation still too high and growth surprisingly strong, the Fed sees little room to move. Markets are already looking beyond today, focusing on mid-2026 and the political and economic shifts that could finally unlock the next phase of policy. What Powell says now may matter less than what changes in the months ahead.

Bitcoin is down just over 1% over the past 24 hours, but the real story sits beneath the surface. Over the weekend, the price came within a hair’s breadth of confirming a bearish breakdown near $86,000 before rebounding, leaving the market in a fragile holding pattern rather than a clear recovery.

That rebound coincided with a sharp slowdown in on-chain selling, yet institutional demand remains notably absent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed more than $1.7 billion since mid-January, while global markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s next policy signal. With volatility rising across assets, Bitcoin is now approaching a moment that could define its short-term direction.

What’s driving Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s latest move has been shaped by a technical structure that has been building quietly for weeks. On the daily chart, BTC remains within a head-and-shoulders pattern, a formation that often precedes trend reversals when confirmed. 

While the bounce prevented an immediate breakdown, the structure itself remains intact, keeping downside risk alive.

What changed over the weekend was the intensity of selling. On-chain data shows a sharp drop in coin movement across all holding ages. The Spent Coins Age Band metric fell from roughly 27,000 to just under 7,700, a decline of more than 70%. 

When fewer coins move, fewer holders are actively selling, and that reduction in supply pressure explains why Bitcoin stabilised rather than slipping straight through support. Still, easing sell pressure does not automatically translate into renewed demand.

Why it matters

The missing piece is institutional participation, and ETF flows make that gap difficult to ignore. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted several consecutive sessions of net outflows, with more than $100 million leaving the products on 23 January alone and roughly $1.33 billion exiting over the past week. 

These funds have become a key entry route for large portfolios, making their behaviour a critical barometer of conviction, according to analysts.

Analysts caution that price rebounds unsupported by ETF inflows often struggle to extend. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has pointed out that sustained redemptions usually reflect hedge funds pulling back from the Bitcoin basis trade as returns compress. Data from Amberdata shows those yields have dropped below 5%, down sharply from around 17% a year ago, reducing the incentive for institutional positioning.

Impact on the crypto market

Bitcoin’s hesitation has rippled across the broader crypto market. Ether fell more than 7% over the past 24 hours, sliding back below the $3,000 level for the first time since early January. Altcoins have fared even worse, with capital rotating defensively into Bitcoin despite its own weakness. As a result, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to nearly 60%, highlighting how risk aversion tends to consolidate liquidity into the largest asset.

That defensive shift mirrors moves in traditional markets. Global equities weakened as Japan’s government bond market showed signs of stress and renewed U.S. tariff threats weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq fell close to 2%, while Germany’s DAX slipped more than 1%. In contrast, traditional safe havens surged, with gold rising by more than 3% and silver rallying by 7% to fresh record highs. In this environment, crypto has traded firmly as a risk asset rather than a hedge.

Expert outlook

The immediate focus now turns to macro policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, with CME FedWatch placing the probability of a cut below 3%. 

Markets will instead scrutinise Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for any shift in tone, especially after delays to key U.S. GDP and consumption data have added uncertainty to the growth outlook.

For traders, ETF flows remain the most important near-term signal. “Volatility is back, and bitcoin is moving in line with risk assets again,” said Paul Howard of trading firm Wincent, adding that altcoins are likely to remain under pressure if macro stress persists. A sustained move back above $90,000 could stabilise sentiment, but failure to reclaim that level leaves Bitcoin exposed to another test of support.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s recent bounce reflects fading selling pressure rather than a clear return of buyers. With ETF outflows persisting and macro risks rising, the market is entering a decisive phase. How Bitcoin responds around key levels, alongside signals from the Federal Reserve and daily ETF flows, will shape the next move. For now, stability remains conditional rather than assured.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin continues to consolidate following its earlier correction from highs, with price remaining contained within a broad range and trading below the mid-area of the Bollinger Bands. The bands have narrowed compared with prior periods, indicating reduced volatility and a slowdown in directional momentum. 

Momentum indicators reflect this stabilisation phase, with the RSI rising gradually but remaining below the midline, pointing to subdued upside momentum relative to earlier phases. Trend strength remains elevated, as shown by a high ADX reading, although directional indicators suggest the trend is no longer accelerating. 

Structurally, price continues to oscillate between the previously established zones around $84,700 on the lower end and the former resistance areas near $104,000 and $114,000 on the upper end, highlighting a market environment characterised by balance rather than active price discovery.