Oil’s on a bit of a tightrope right now. On one side, you’ve got political tension ratcheting up - with threats of fresh sanctions and tariffs that could squeeze global supply. On the other hand, the market is staring at rising stockpiles and sluggish demand forecasts that suggest prices should be heading lower. 

Add in a few sharp comments from Trump, a looming OPEC+ meeting, and some eyebrow-raising inventory data, and you’ve got a market that’s holding firm - but wobbling. Will geopolitics keep oil propped up, or are fundamentals about to pull the rug?

Fresh sanctions and tariff threats fuel geopolitical premium

The latest push higher came after former President Donald Trump issued a stark warning - Russia has 10 days to make progress on a ceasefire in Ukraine or face a fresh round of economic penalties. And this time, it’s not just sanctions on Moscow. Trump floated the idea of 100% tariffs on countries still buying Russian oil, which sent a shiver through the market.

The impact? Immediate. Oil surged nearly 4% in a single session, with Brent moving above $72 and WTI flirting with $69 - the highest levels in over a month. 

According to analysts, traders weren’t just reacting to headlines; they were pricing in the very real possibility that over 2 million barrels a day of Russian supply could suddenly go off-grid if big importers like India change course (China, not so much- Beijing’s likely to dig in).

Crude inventories rise as demand growth slows

While the geopolitical backdrop is sizzling, the fundamentals are still whispering, “easy now.” U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly climbed last week - up 1.539 million barrels according to the API - which isn’t what you want to see in a supposedly tight market. 

Demand, meanwhile, isn’t setting the world alight. The International Energy Agency has trimmed its 2025 demand growth outlook to just 700,000 barrels per day - the slowest since 2009.

And it’s not just demand that’s dragging its feet. Supply is quietly on the rise, too. OPEC+ is still pumping, the U.S. is more than ready to ramp up production (Trump practically dared the market to test them), and Venezuela is waiting in the wings, hoping for the green light to restart sanctioned operations.

So despite the fiery rhetoric and rising prices, the basic supply-demand balance is looking… well, a bit too well-fed.

Technical breakout or false rally? 

This is where it gets even more interesting. The price rally wasn’t just about headlines - it also tripped a few wires in the technicals. WTI broke above its 200-day moving average, triggering a wave of technical buying. Bullish options are now outpacing bearish ones for the first time in weeks, and commodity trading advisers have flipped from net short to net long. Momentum, for now, is pointing up.

But here’s the catch - much of this movement is being driven by what might happen, not what’s already happened. If that 10-day deadline passes without sanctions, or if global buyers call Trump’s bluff, prices could unwind just as fast.

Key events that could move oil market next

There’s no shortage of market-moving events in the pipeline. We’ve got:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision (will they hint at cuts or stay hawkish?)
  
  
• Fresh inventory data from the EIA
  
  
• The 1 August trade deadline between the U.S. and its major partners
  
  
• And, of course, the OPEC+ meeting, which will determine how much oil is heading into the market in September
  
  

Oh, and let’s not forget broader macro data: China’s PMI, U.S. nonfarm payrolls, and even the Bank of Japan’s policy update could all swing sentiment on global energy demand.

Oil prices are holding steady for now, but they’re standing on shaky ground according to analysts. The geopolitical risk premium is keeping prices afloat - but if diplomacy takes the heat out of the headlines, the market may start focusing on the basics again. And the basics are… well, not particularly bullish.

So, will oil stay up or dip? According to analysts, it depends on whether the market keeps trading on what’s happening in the real world, or what might be coming out of Washington next week.

At the time of writing, prices are in price discovery mode after a huge move down weeks ago. The bullish narrative is supported by the volume bars showing dominant buy pressure over the past 3 days. If the rally continues, we could see prices breach the $70 mark. Conversely, if prices succumb to fundamentals, we could see a price reversal. A significant plunge could see prices held at the $64.73 and $60.23 support levels.  

The euro-dollar pair is tiptoeing into Fed week on shaky ground. A surprise US–EU trade deal gave the euro a brief lift - and then the dollar came roaring back. Now, with markets fully expecting the Fed to hold rates steady, the real drama lies in what Powell says next. Throw in inflation figures and US jobs data, and you’ve got a recipe for fireworks. 

Is this just the start of a bigger slide for EURUSD, or will the pair find its footing?

A trade deal that favours the dollar

The US and EU finally signed off on a trade agreement - just days before the 1 August deadline. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump shook hands on a deal that reportedly slashes US tariffs on EU goods to 15%, down from the originally threatened 30%. In return, the EU committed to €600 billion in US investment and ramped-up purchases of American gas and military hardware.

Markets cheered the announcement - briefly. EURUSD popped to 1.1770 early Monday, but it didn’t take long for traders to reassess. The euro sank more than 120 pips intraday, landing around 1.1590 by the US session open. It’s a classic case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact” - and it underscores just how fragile euro momentum really is.

According to analysts, this deal may have eased trade tensions, but the capital and energy flows it triggers seem to favour the US economy more than Europe’s - and that’s keeping a tailwind behind the greenback.

A fed on hold - but far from silent

Now for the main event: the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday. The market is almost certain the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%–5.50% - the odds are at 95%, according to Kalshi. 

But just because rates aren’t moving doesn’t mean the dollar won’t.

Jerome Powell’s press conference is where the real price action begins. The Fed Chair is under pressure from both sides - inflation’s still running hot at 3.3%, and President Trump isn’t shy about calling for rate cuts. That puts Powell in a tight spot.

A neutral tone could keep EURUSD range-bound. A hawkish stance - perhaps a reminder that inflation is still too sticky for comfort - could see the pair retest 1.14 or even break lower. On the flip side, if Powell surprises with dovish hints about a September cut, the euro might catch a second wind and push back toward the 1.17 zone, according to analysts.

ECB inflation policy: Eurozone inflation data adds to euro weakness

While traders digest the Fed’s tone, the Eurozone’s own data calendar isn’t offering much support for the single currency. Inflation figures out on Friday are expected to show a further slowdown to 1.9% - slipping below the ECB’s 2% target for the second time this year.

This could give the European Central Bank a bit of breathing room, but it also reignites concerns about weak demand and sluggish growth. With the ECB already split between hawks and doves, a soft print could increase calls for further easing- especially with GDP growth across Spain, Germany, and Italy stalling.

In other words, if the euro was looking for a data-driven rebound this week, it might be disappointed.

The jobs report that could change everything

Then comes Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report - the wildcard that could flip the script entirely. Markets expect a cooling in job creation, with July NFP forecast at 108,000, down from June’s 147,000. That would strengthen the case for a September rate cut - something the Fed has so far resisted confirming.

But if the NFP surprises to the upside, or if wage growth stays hot, traders could quickly revive the hawkish Fed narrative. In that case, the USD would likely surge again, dragging EURUSD further into bearish territory.

Also on the radar are the Fed’s preferred inflation measure - the Core PCE Price Index - and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. These could help cement market expectations heading into the final stretch of summer.

Where next for EURUSD? What traders should watch

EURUSD remains under pressure. The pair had been climbing inside a rising wedge pattern - typically a bearish reversal setup - and with resistance near 1.1790 now firmly rejected, the bias looks tilted to the downside.

If Powell surprises markets with dovish commentary and Friday’s US data disappoints, analysts say EURUSD could reclaim lost ground and push back up. However, any rally will likely face stiff resistance from here. 

At the time of writing, the pair is plunging towards 1.15000 with sellers dominant on the daily chart. The bearish narrative is also supported by the volume bars showing sell pressure over the past few days. Should the bears keep advancing, we could see prices plunge further to find support levels around the 1.1453 and 1.1298 price levels. 

Conversely, if we see a price reversal, prices could surge to find support at the 1.1790 resistance level.

Trade EURUSD price action with a Deriv MT5 account today.

‍

Reports show that Ethereum’s been quietly stealing the spotlight - not with a flashy price spike, but with something potentially more powerful. Inflows into Ethereum ETFs have exploded, crossing the $10 billion mark and turning heads across traditional finance. It’s the kind of quiet accumulation that often sets the stage for something much bigger.

Analysts say this isn’t your typical crypto frenzy. It’s structured and institutional and could spark a feedback loop where rising demand drives more buying - and eventually, much higher prices. The question now is whether this ETF-driven momentum has what it takes to launch Ethereum into its next major rally.

Ethereum ETF inflows cross $10B: What it means for price

When money flows into an ETF like $ETHA, the fund has to buy the underlying asset - in this case, Ethereum. That increases demand. More demand pushes the price up, drawing in more attention and, yes, more inflows. Rinse and repeat.

It’s called the flywheel effect, and we’ve seen it before. Bitcoin ETFs lit up in early 2024, setting off a chain reaction that helped push BTC to new all-time highs. Now it’s Ethereum’s turn - but the pace is even more interesting.

$ETHA reached $10 billion in assets under management in just 251 trading days, making it the third-fastest ETF in history to hit that milestone. Only Bitcoin’s $IBIT and $FBTC got there faster. And over the past ten days, $ETHA’s AUM has doubled - a strong sign that institutional interest isn’t cooling off anytime soon.

ETH institutional demand

According to analysts, this surge isn’t just about ETFs. Public companies are starting to build Ethereum treasuries, mimicking the playbook that made Bitcoin famous in 2021. Firms like BitMine Immersion and SharpLink Gaming have accumulated over $1 billion in ETH holdings each, a move that signals growing confidence in Ethereum as a long-term store of value.

Meanwhile, according to Glassnode, the number of first-time ETH holders has increased 16% since early July, and exchange balances have dropped to their lowest levels since 2016. 

Combine that with over 28% of ETH staked, and you’ve got a recipe for a supply squeeze. There’s less ETH sloshing around, just as demand is surging.

So why isn’t the price soaring?

That’s the big question on crypto X, and it’s a fair one. Despite billions flowing in, Ethereum is still trading around 22% below its all-time high, hovering near $3,800.

Part of the answer lies in how institutions behave. This isn’t the wild west of ICOs or the 2017 meme coin mania. Institutional capital tends to be longer-term and slower-moving, favouring steady accumulation over sudden FOMO. And let’s not forget - this wave of demand may be replacing existing ETH positions rather than injecting brand new capital into the market.

Another potential factor is regulation. Since the SEC approved Ethereum ETFs in 2024, the market has matured significantly. That brings stability but also tempers the euphoria that used to send prices rocketing overnight.

A bull market without the euphoria

Interestingly, 94.4% of ETH’s supply is now in profit, according to Glassnode. Yet sentiment remains surprisingly muted. The NUPL score sits in the “optimism” range, far from the overheated highs we usually see at market tops.

Even open interest in Ethereum futures - which has surged to over $56 billion - isn’t flashing red. Funding rates are still moderate, suggesting traders aren’t massively over-leveraged. In other words, Ethereum has room to run before things get frothy.

This could be a rare sweet spot: strong fundamentals, rising institutional demand, and a market that isn’t yet overextended.

Ethereum’s quiet evolution

Beyond price and ETFs, Ethereum itself is evolving. The network recently raised gas limits, and blocks were filled instantly. NFTs, once the dominant use case, are now sharing space with stablecoin transactions, rollup proofs, and modular DeFi apps. Ethereum is becoming the infrastructure layer for Web3 finance, and Wall Street is finally catching on.

Add to that the recent GENIUS Act, which opens the door for more stablecoin issuance from traditional firms, and Ethereum’s role as financial plumbing starts to look even more important. This isn’t just a crypto asset anymore - it’s becoming critical infrastructure.

Ethereum’s ETF moment might not look like a rocket ship - at least not yet. But make no mistake: the foundations are being laid for something much bigger. With supply tightening, institutional inflows rising, and on-chain activity maturing, all the ingredients are there for a breakout.

Whether that breakout happens next week or next quarter, one thing is clear: this isn’t 2017 all over again. It’s slower, smarter, and backed by real capital. And if the flywheel keeps turning, Ethereum might just lead the next bull run - one ETF inflow at a time. 

At the time of writing, the surge towards $4,000 is still on, and prices are in price discovery mode. If we see a price reversal, though, prices could find support at the $3,590 support level. If we see a price crash, we could see prices finding support at the $2,470 and $1,800 support levels. 

Trade ETH price action with a Deriv MT5 account today. 

Oil is one of the most headline-driven assets out there, and yet, sometimes, it just doesn’t budge. Trade talks spark optimism, inventories tumble, supply routes wobble... and crude prices? They tick sideways.

According to experts, this happens because, behind the noise, the fundamentals still rule. Supply and demand haven’t shifted meaningfully, and traders are increasingly wary of jumping on short-lived rallies. It’s a case of the market saying: “Nice headline - now show me the follow-through.”

Oil market reactions to global news explained

Let’s be clear - oil reacts to news. Big inventory draws? Prices tick higher. Rumours of Russian export cuts or trade truces? Same thing. But these moves tend to be shallow, and more often than not, they reverse within days.

Markets are forward-looking. By the time headlines hit the wires, traders have usually priced in the probabilities. A trade agreement between major economies might sound bullish for oil demand, but if it’s already been months in the making, it won’t carry the same punch as a true surprise.

In other words, the market needs more than promises. It wants proof - actual changes in demand, hard data, not just noise.

Why oil prices remain stuck despite rising supply

The supply side of the equation hasn’t exactly helped the bull case either. OPEC+ has been cautiously pumping more, and there’s always chatter about easing restrictions on sanctioned producers like Venezuela or Iran. Every additional drop of crude in a well-supplied world adds weight to the top end of oil’s price range.

At the same time, the demand outlook hasn’t caught fire. Growth remains sluggish in key economies, and China’s rebound has been patchy at best. Even in the US, where consumption typically holds firm, refiners are facing mixed signals - robust summer travel one week, weaker gasoline margins the next.

It’s this push-and-pull, supply returning while demand flickers, that keeps oil prices in check. Neither side is strong enough to dominate, which leaves crude drifting rather than charging ahead.

Why technical levels are capping oil’s price movement

There’s also the not-so-small matter of technical resistance. WTI, for example, has consistently failed to clear the $70 mark with conviction. Each time it flirts with that level, sellers step in. The same goes for Brent and its tendency to stall in the high $60s to low $70s.

Support holds just as firm, typically in the low $60s, creating a reliable, if frustrating, band that traders have learned to lean on. In short, oil has become a range trader’s dream and a trend trader’s headache.

Until something breaks - either a true supply shock or a confirmed demand surge - there’s little incentive for big moves beyond these comfort zones.

False breakouts make oil traders wary of headline-driven moves

There’s also a psychological layer to all this. Traders have been burned by false breakouts before. Optimism around diplomacy or macro data rarely delivers the explosive follow-through it once did.

Nowadays, markets tend to adopt a “wait and see” stance. This cautious sentiment feeds back into price action - fewer buyers on the breakout, more sellers on the spike. Everyone’s looking over their shoulder, wondering if this rally will actually stick.

So while the headlines keep rolling in, the market has, in a way, become desensitised. It takes more than just noise to get traders to jump.

What could trigger a breakout in oil prices?

If crude is to escape this price gridlock, it’ll need something with real staying power. Think:

• A major and sustained production disruption - not just a headline - an actual bottleneck.
  
  
• A surprise in demand, like a stronger-than-expected economic rebound or a cold snap that stretches global diesel supplies.
  
  
• Or even coordinated policy shifts - OPEC cuts that actually bite, or fiscal stimulus that fuels consumption.
  
  

Until then, oil is likely to continue reacting to the noise while respecting the range.

There’s no shortage of excitement in oil markets - geopolitics, weather, diplomacy, you name it. But excitement doesn’t always equal direction. For now, crude is the market that moves, but doesn’t break. And that, in itself, is a story worth watching.

At the time of writing, Oil has seen a slight uptick in a buy zone within its recent range area - hinting that we could see some more lift off before arriving at the sell zone at the top of the range. The volume bars add to the consolidation narrative, with sellers and buyers evidently engaged in a tug of war. 

Should we see an uptick, prices could hold at the top of the range at $67.59. Conversely, if we see a downturn, prices could find support at the $64.48 and $60.23 support levels. 

Trade oil price action with a Deriv MT5 account today.

The S&P 500 just did it again - another record smashed, this time soaring past the 6,350 mark like it was barely a speed bump. It’s the kind of milestone that gets traders buzzing, headlines flashing, and retail investors wondering if they’ve just missed the boat - or if there’s still another leg up to ride.

With Big Tech stepping into the earnings spotlight this week and tariff chatter heating up, markets are charging ahead on a heady mix of optimism, momentum, and a touch of good old-fashioned FOMO. But here’s the big question - can the rally keep its footing all the way to 6,500, or is this high-wire act due for a wobble?

Big Tech earnings drive S&P 500 momentum to record highs

At the heart of this market surge is a familiar engine - Big Tech. Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Tesla are up this week with their quarterly results, kicking off what many are calling the Magnificent Seven earnings showdown. Investors are bracing for a parade of updates from tech titans that could make or break the S&P 500’s momentum.

So far, things are looking rosy. Alphabet surged ahead of its Wednesday report, dragging the broader market with it. Apple and Amazon chipped in too, keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in record-setting territory. 

‍

Analysts expect a 6.7% boost in Q2 earnings, driven largely by tech giants, according to LSEG I/B/E/S.

It’s the classic growth story - with a modern twist. Despite sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, investors are backing the familiar faces of innovation to deliver the goods yet again.

Trump’s August tariff deadline: Will it derail the S&P 500 rally?

Now for the twist in the tale. While Wall Street has its eyes fixed on the next 150 points, President Trump’s 1 August tariff deadline is creeping closer, and it could throw a spanner in the works.

Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports, and letters outlining duties as high as 50% are also going out to Canada, Japan, and Brazil. Sound familiar? That’s because we’ve been here before.

His initial “Liberation Day” tariffs in April knocked the S&P 500 to its lowest point in over a year. 

Since then, the market has staged an eye-watering comeback - up nearly 27% since the April lows. But whether that rally can survive another tariff tantrum remains to be seen.

The current mood suggests investors aren’t taking the threats at face value. There’s a general belief that deals will be struck, threats will soften, and cooler heads will prevail. But it’s a risky game of chicken - and the stakes are getting higher.

Retail investors drive stock rally

One of the more fascinating subplots in this rally is who’s doing the buying. Retail investors have poured over $50 billion into global stocks in the past month, according to Barclays. That’s serious money - and a sign that individual traders are confidently backing the rally, even as institutional investors remain a bit more hesitant.

This influx has helped propel the market through a V-shaped recovery, with the Nasdaq 100 clocking in 62 straight sessions above its 20-day moving average - the second-longest run since 1999. It’s the sort of stat that makes technical traders sit up and take notice.

But momentum is a funny thing. It can carry markets far, fast -but when it falters, the fall can be just as swift.

Cracks beneath the surface

Despite the upbeat headlines, some warning signs are starting to flash.

• The US dollar is tumbling, down nearly 11% since Trump returned to office.
  
• Gold and silver are quietly surging - up 30% and 35%, respectively - suggesting some investors are hedging against chaos.
  
• Consumer data remains mixed, and jobless claims will be closely watched this week.
  
• And then there’s the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday could shift the tone entirely if rate cut expectations begin to drift.
  

Let’s not forget that markets haven’t moved more than 1% in either direction since late June. That calm could signal confidence - or it could be the eerie quiet before the next policy storm.

S&P 500 forecast: 6500 or bust?

So, where does that leave us? The path to 6,500 is wide open - but also littered with potential obstacles. Analysts claim that if Big Tech delivers and Powell stays dovish, we could see that next milestone sooner than many expect. But if tariffs land hard or earnings disappoint, this rally could hit a wall fast.

Right now, investors are leaning into hope - and in some cases, pure momentum. As one strategist put it, this rally might just be too profitable to abandon. But markets have a way of humbling even the boldest bull.

S&P 500 technical outlook

At the time of writing, prices are on price discovery mode with bulls evidently in control. The volume bars also indicate bullish dominance, adding credence to the bullish narrative. If the charge towards new highs stalls, we could see sellers move with more conviction, pushing prices lower. If we see a slump, prices be held at the $6,290, $6,200 and $5,920 support levels.

Trade the movements of the S&P 500 with a Deriv MT5 account today. 

It’s not every day you hear traders whisper about the yen carry trade like it’s 2006 again. But here we are. While headlines have been fixated on Trump’s “historic” trade deal with Japan, complete with eye-popping numbers and tariff drama, the FX market seems less impressed. USDJPY has slipped under 147, the Dollar’s momentum is wobbling, and the real story might be one that’s quietly resurfacing: the return of the carry trade.

With Japan still glued to low interest rates and the Fed not quite ready to pivot, the conditions that once made borrowing yen to chase yield so appealing might just be creeping back into play.

The Japan-US trade deal that was meant to move markets

According to President Trump, the U.S. has struck “perhaps the largest deal ever” with Japan. Big claim. The agreement includes a supposed $550 billion investment from Japan into the U.S. - a figure that raised more eyebrows than bond yields - and a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods entering the States. In return, Japan agreed to open up its famously guarded markets to U.S. cars, trucks, and even rice.

Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, posted a triumphant “Mission Complete” on X. But markets barely blinked. USDJPY actually dipped, and the dollar index softened. 

For all the political theatre, traders seemed more focused on rate expectations and risk dynamics than on headlines from Washington.

What is the carry trade, and why does it matter now?

Ever heard of the carry trade? It's making a comeback, and here’s why it matters now. At its core, it’s about borrowing cheaply and investing in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. For years, Japan’s near-zero interest rate environment made it the go-to funding currency.

It fell out of fashion post-2008, reappeared briefly during the QE years, and then vanished again as volatility returned and global yields converged. 

Below are the carry trade cumulative returns before the financial crisis.

And below we can see the carry trade cumulative returns after the financial crisis.

But now, something’s shifting. The Fed may still have rate cuts in its forecast, but sticky inflation and tariff-driven price pressures are keeping it cautious. Meanwhile, Japan, with slowing growth, weak wage data, and a fragile political backdrop, has little room to tighten. That creates the kind of rate divergence that carry traders love.

USDJPY isn’t exactly running away with it

Despite all this, USDJPY isn’t soaring. Quite the opposite. The pair recently dipped below the 147.00 level, with momentum indicators flashing signs of fatigue. It had climbed earlier in the year, riding on interest rate differentials and a wave of risk-on sentiment. But now? Traders are pausing.

Part of the reason is that the BoJ remains on the sidelines, despite global tightening. Analysts suggest Japan’s soft inflation data and political flux are keeping policy makers cautious. Add to that the uncertainty over whether Japan can genuinely funnel $550 billion into the U.S. economy, and you’ve got a market that’s interested, but not convinced.

Politics meets policy in Tokyo

Let’s not forget the domestic backdrop in Japan. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s party just lost its upper-house majority by three seats. He’s hanging on with the support of smaller coalition partners, but his grip is weaker, and that matters.

A slimmer majority means less room to manoeuvre on economic reforms, especially if U.S. demands intensify. Still, markets largely welcomed the result, not because they love Ishiba, but because it prevents a potentially market-shaking swing to a high-tax opposition. For now, the BoJ has even fewer reasons to rock the boat.

A whisper, not a roar - yet

So is the yen carry trade back? Not in full force. But the conditions that nurtured it - low volatility, rate divergence, and a muted BoJ - are re-emerging. The USDJPY pair may not be breaking out, but it’s no longer trading on headlines alone.

Safe-haven demand for the yen is fading, especially with the trade deal neutralising the 1 August tariff deadline. While the investment figure from Japan might be more fluff than fact, analysts say the structural story - of divergent central banks and old strategies creeping back - holds weight. 

Carry trades don’t shout. They sneak back in when no one’s looking. Traders may still be debating Trump’s tariff tactics or the credibility of Japan’s investment pledge, but in the background, the yen could be quietly finding its old role again - not as a haven, but as a funding tool.

And if that momentum builds? USDJPY might just start listening. 

USDJPY technical outlook

At the time of writing, the pair has recovered some ground from earlier drawdowns, hovering around a support level, hinting at a potential move up.

However, the volume bars show strong sell pressure over the past two days with little pushback from buyers, hinting at a potential further drawdown if buyers don’t push with conviction. A move down could find support at the $146.74 and $142.67 support levels. Conversely, a move up could find resistance at the $149.19 and $151.16 price levels.

Trade the movements of USDJPY with a Deriv MT5 account today. 

Once upon a time, investors rushed to gold only when the world looked like it might catch fire. War, recession, a market meltdown - cue the stampede to safety. But lately, something curious is happening. Gold is climbing, the dollar is wobbling, and safe-haven demand is on the rise… while the headlines are, well, not exactly screaming doom.

So what gives?

According to analysts, the safe-haven trade isn’t just a panic button anymore - it’s becoming a permanent fixture in portfolios. With mixed signals from central banks, political noise that never quite fades, and inflation that may or may not be lurking around the corner, investors are hedging not just against crisis but against confusion.

Gold price trends: Climbing without a panic

Gold prices have gained over 1%, hitting a five-week high. The usual suspects? A weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields - the classic conditions for gold to shine. But what’s different this time is the backdrop. Instead of clear-cut panic, we’re seeing a muddled blend of upbeat consumer sentiment, vague trade threats, and central bank indecision.

For example, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index just came in higher than expected, suggesting Americans are feeling pretty chipper about the economy. It’s not exactly a flashing red alert, but gold is rising.

Why? Because beneath the surface of that optimism, there’s a gnawing sense that the macro picture isn’t as clear as it looks.

Gold trading during economic uncertainty

One major source of unease? The 1 August tariff deadline set by former President Trump, who’s threatening to slap steep levies on major economies, including up to 20% tariffs on the EU, even if a deal is struck. It’s hard to plan around that kind of unpredictability.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has become something of a wildcard. Governor Christopher Waller recently supported a rate cut as early as July, while others at the Fed are urging patience. Add to that a rising chorus questioning the Fed’s leadership structure - with talk of replacing Chair Jerome Powell - and you’ve got the perfect recipe for investor jitters.

In this environment, gold isn’t just a hedge against collapse - it’s a hedge against noise.

Federal Reserve policy: Is confusion now a catalyst?

Experts now claim that the safe haven bid today is being driven by something more subtle than fear - it’s driven by doubt, and doubt has staying power.

Gold is benefiting not because the economy is falling apart, but because nobody’s quite sure where it’s going. Will inflation spike if tariffs hit? Will the Fed blink or hold steady? Is consumer optimism sustainable, or just a lagging reaction to old data?

Markets hate mixed messages, and they’re getting plenty of them. So, rather than wait for a blow-up, investors are choosing to stay hedged, according to analysts. Safe havens like gold are no longer seen as reactive panic plays - they’re being treated as strategic insurance in an uncertain world.

A range-bound market with range-bound thinking

Still, traders aren’t piling into gold with both feet. The price action remains range-bound, as many wait for stronger confirmation before placing bigger bullish calls. With the metal sitting just below a multi-week resistance level, there’s caution in the air.

Some are watching for fresh catalysts,  like global PMI data later this week, to determine if gold breaks out or pulls back. But regardless of the short-term swings, the structural case for gold looks strong at the moment.

The dollar is still under pressure, yields remain low, and the Fed’s next move is far from certain. 

Add in unpredictable trade policy and a dash of geopolitical friction, and you’ve got enough ambiguity to keep the safe-haven trade humming.

Gold technical outlook: The new safe-haven mindset

So here we are - in a world where the economy looks fine on the surface, but investors are still quietly buying protection.

The safe haven trade is no longer a panic-induced stampede into gold at the first sign of chaos. It's evolving into a steady, strategic allocation - a way to stay anchored while navigating murky waters.

Because in 2025, risk doesn’t always arrive with flashing lights. Sometimes, it creeps in quietly, wrapped in mixed data, unclear policy, and leaders who keep markets guessing. And that’s exactly the kind of uncertainty gold was built for.

At the time of writing, Gold’s uptick looks to be slowing down at a resistance level within a sell zone, hinting at a possible downturn. The volume bars, on the other hand, paint a picture of market indecision and a possible consolidation channel phase. Should we see a further uptick, prices could be held at the $3,403 and $3,444 resistance levels. Conversely should we see a downturn, prices could be held at the $3,338, $3,302, and $3,265 support levels. 

Altcoin season isn’t just a rumour anymore - according to some market watchers, it’s starting to look real. While Bitcoin takes a breather, XRP and Dogecoin are charging ahead, grabbing headlines and stirring up the kind of momentum we haven’t seen in months. With billions in inflows and technicals lighting up like a Christmas tree, analysts believe the market feels like it’s on the edge of something big. So, is this the start of a full-blown altcoin comeback? 

XRP and Dogecoin set the pace

Let’s start with the obvious standouts. XRP has just hit $3.66, marking a multi-year high and flashing signals that it might be far from done. It’s up nearly 90% since April, and analysts are now eyeing potential targets between $7 and $10 - yes, really.

Meanwhile, Dogecoin, everyone’s favourite meme coin turned market heavyweight, is back above $0.20 for the first time in over six weeks. It’s rallied more than 18% in a week, pulled in nearly $10 billion in fresh capital, and is seeing open interest double across futures markets. It may have started as a joke, but right now, Doge is no laughing matter.

Other Altcoins surge significantly

It’s not just XRP and Dogecoin getting all the attention. Solana and Cardano have also made solid moves, climbing 5–8% in 24 hours. Meme coins are having another moment (again), fuelled by Pump. fun’s token frenzy and even a few eyebrow-raising appearances from Trump and Melania-themed coins.

In short, many say this isn’t just a random spike - it’s starting to feel like a coordinated rotation of capital back into altcoins. The kind of movement that tends to gather pace… and attention.

Bitcoin dominance is seemingly fading

Interestingly, all of this is happening while Bitcoin stays flat. Even after hitting new highs recently, BTC has lost a bit of its dominance, dropping from 65% to below 61.5% of the total market cap. 

That might not sound like much, but in crypto terms, it’s a solid sign that traders are looking elsewhere for opportunity.

And where are they looking? You guessed it - altcoins.

Is this the altseason?

There’s been plenty of talk that true alt seasons are a thing of the past - a relic of pre-ETF crypto cycles. But when you see 77 of the top 100 coins in the green, billions flowing into speculative plays, and Bitcoin losing a bit of spotlight… it starts to feel like the tide is turning.

Sure, we’re not at full-blown frenzy just yet. But if XRP clears its resistance and Dogecoin keeps pushing higher, this could be the start of a much larger move.

Altcoin technical analysis signals bullish momentum

From a chart perspective, the pieces are falling into place. XRP’s dominance is testing a level it hasn’t properly broken in over 2,200 days. History shows that when it does crack through, price tends to follow quickly. One analyst called it a potential “mega bullish wave”, and to be fair, the setup looks convincing.

Dogecoin, too, is pressing against key resistance, with whales taking leveraged long positions and liquidity clustering around the $0.24 level. That’s often a precursor to volatility, for better or worse. 

At the time of writing, XRP still looks bullish after a huge spike, though signs of exhaustion are evident on the daily chart. The volume bars also back the bullish narrative, but with caution because sellers are now offering significant pushback. Should sellers overcome, we could see prices crashing and getting support at the $2.2618 and $2.1342 support levels. On the other hand, if we see an uptick, prices could struggle to break through current levels at around $3.5013. 

DOGE has also been going parabolic as prices go into price discovery mode. The bullish narrative is backed by volume bars showing little seller pushback to buyer dominance over the past few days. If sellers push back with more conviction, we could see a considerable price reversal with sellers potentially being held at the $0.1964 and $0.1678 price levels.

Chainlink has been turning heads lately - not just with its price action, but with real signs of momentum that go beyond the usual crypto chatter. After bouncing confidently from $15, LINK is charging up the charts and flirting with key resistance levels. 

Spot market demand is strong, derivatives traders are piling in, and the buzz around real-world adoption is only adding fuel to the fire. But is this rally built to last - or is it another overextended sprint heading for a stumble?

Buyers are back in charge

Let’s start with what’s driving the excitement: Analysts say Chainlink’s chart is looking undeniably bullish. Since early July, it’s been forming a solid uptrend with higher highs and higher lows - a classic structure that signals strength. After holding firm near the $15.20 support level, LINK has been grinding higher with only minor pullbacks, each one met with renewed buyer enthusiasm.

Momentum like this isn’t just price noise - it’s backed by real conviction. The Spot Taker Buy Volume shows that aggressive buyers have consistently outpaced sellers over the past 90 days. 

Many say that’s not a fluke - it’s a signal that bulls are in control, at least for now. To add to that, trading volume recently crossed $659 million in a single day. That’s not thin air, according to analysts.. That’s real market activity, suggesting that LINK’s price rise isn’t just happening in a vacuum - there’s participation, liquidity, and actual interest at this level.

Derivatives data tells a mixed story

On the futures and options side, things are heating up - but perhaps a little too much. Funding rates have flipped back into positive territory after spending weeks in the red. 

In plain terms, traders are now willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. That’s usually a vote of confidence - a bullish crowd, happy to put their money where their mouth is.

Open interest also jumped 8.47% in 24 hours, rising to a whopping $843 million. 

That spike shows a clear uptick in speculative activity. But here’s the catch: when open interest rises this sharply near key resistance, it often means the market is getting a bit top-heavy. If price momentum stalls, those overleveraged longs could be in trouble, and the resulting liquidations could cause a sharp drop.

On-chain signals suggest caution

Zooming out, analysts say that on-chain metrics are sounding a quiet alarm. The MVRV ratio, which tracks how much profit holders are sitting on, has climbed to 37.87%. That means a lot of people are now in the green, and historically, this is where many start to take profits. It’s not a sell signal in itself, but it’s a reminder that FOMO isn’t the only force at play.

Then there’s the NVT ratio, which keeps spiking. This ratio compares market cap to network activity, and rising levels suggest that price is outpacing actual usage. So while the rally looks great on paper, it’s moving faster than the underlying fundamentals, never a good long-term pattern.

Chainlink's real-world adoption adds fuel

Still, there’s more to this rally than just speculation. Chainlink’s tech is gaining traction in the real economy, and that’s no small thing.

Take Tokenyze, for example. They’ve just joined the Chainlink BUILD programme, and their focus is on tokenising physical assets - metals like copper and aluminium, backed by actual warehouse receipts. These aren’t digital promises - they’re real, tangible commodities brought on-chain using Chainlink’s Proof of Reserve, real-time price feeds, and cross-chain interoperability protocols.

Tokenyze is using ERC-3643 standards to mint tokens that can be wrapped into ERC-20, making them instantly compatible with DeFi platforms. Investors can buy, lend, or use these asset-backed tokens as collateral, just like any crypto, but rooted in real-world value.

This isn’t just a headline partnership. It’s a clear sign that Chainlink is evolving from an oracle provider to an infrastructure layer for tokenised finance. The collaboration also involves Tokenyze sharing part of its native token supply with Chainlink stakers and service providers - a model that aligns incentives and strengthens the ecosystem.

Chainlink price prediction: Can LINK push through $25?

The rally has real legs, according to analysts. There’s spot demand, derivatives enthusiasm, and institutional-grade adoption all converging at once. But that doesn’t mean it’s a straight line to $25.

Yes, the momentum is strong, and if LINK can smash through resistance near $18.81, the path to $25 opens up quickly. But elevated open interest, profit-heavy wallets, and shaky on-chain ratios suggest we could see a test of nerves before the next leg up.

At the time of writing, Chainlink is still on a tear, but there are signs of waning momentum, with a large wick forming at the top. It remains to be seen whether the wick will signify price exhaustion or if the uptick will reaccelerate. If we see an uptick, bulls will be in price discovery mode on their way towards $25. Conversely, if we see a price reversal, sellers could find floors at the $15.00 and $13.41 support levels.

Speculate on the movements on LINK with a Deriv MT5 account today.