Defence stocks snapped back into the spotlight after President Donald Trump signalled a dramatic shift in US military spending. In a social media post that caught markets off guard, Trump floated a $1.5 trillion defence budget for 2027, a sharp jump from the roughly $901 billion set for 2026. The proposal triggered a rapid after-hours rebound in major US defence names, reversing earlier losses.

Lockheed Martin surged 7%, while Northrop Grumman climbed 4%, underscoring how tightly defence valuations remain tied to political direction. With markets already uneasy about stretched tech valuations, Trump’s comments have reignited interest in defence as both a policy-driven and geopolitical trade.

What’s driving defence stocks?

The immediate catalyst was Trump’s promise to build what he described as a “Dream Military”, backed by a significantly larger defence budget. The scale of the proposed increase matters. A move towards $1.5 trillion would represent one of the largest step-ups in US military spending outside wartime, reshaping long-term revenue expectations for defence contractors.

Earlier in the session, defence shares had sold off after Trump criticised contractors for prioritising dividends and share buybacks over investment in production capacity. That rhetoric briefly raised fears of tighter oversight and limits on capital returns. The swift reversal later in the day showed that investors remain far more sensitive to spending signals than to governance concerns, particularly when multi-year contracts are at stake.

Beyond Washington, defence demand remains structurally supported. Europe continues to rearm, NATO spending targets are rising, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have reinforced the political urgency of military readiness. These forces have made defence stocks increasingly resilient to broader market volatility.

Why it matters

Defence stocks occupy a unique position in equity markets. Unlike most cyclical sectors, their revenues are directly linked to government budgets rather than consumer demand or credit conditions. When spending expectations rise, earnings visibility improves almost instantly, even if actual contracts take years to materialise.

Analysts argue this is why defence stocks now trade more like political assets than industrial ones. “Markets are pricing defence on policy momentum, not balance sheets,” a US defence strategist told Reuters. “Once spending direction is clear, the sector reprices very quickly”.

For investors, that dynamic increases both opportunity and risk. Sudden changes in rhetoric can trigger sharp moves in either direction, making timing and positioning more important than traditional valuation models.

Impact on markets and sector rotation

The renewed interest in defence comes as signs of fatigue emerge in the semiconductor and AI-led rally that dominated early 2026. Chipmakers drove gains at the start of the year, but concerns over valuation and profit sustainability have prompted a gradual rotation. Defence stocks are now absorbing some of that capital, supported by clearer fiscal tailwinds.

Performance data reflects the shift. Lockheed Martin is up nearly 8% year to date, while Halliburton has gained 12%, benefiting from both defence and energy-linked demand. 

In Europe, defence heavyweights such as BAE Systems and Rheinmetall have posted strong gains, driven by persistent geopolitical headlines.

Options markets suggest investors expect larger swings ahead. Implied volatility across defence names has risen, echoing patterns seen in early 2022 when geopolitical escalation sent European defence stocks sharply higher. Rheinmetall’s 30% surge in a single week following the Ukraine invasion remains a clear historical parallel for how quickly the sector can reprice.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, defence stocks face a familiar mix of optimism and uncertainty. Trump’s proposal still requires political backing, and budget negotiations could dilute the headline figure. However, even a partial increase would mark a meaningful shift in spending priorities relative to recent years.

Strategists expect defence to remain a headline-driven trade in the near term. Some favour options-based strategies to manage rising volatility, while others see value in pairing defence exposure against shorts in overextended tech sectors. The common thread is caution around chasing rallies without policy confirmation.

Key signals to watch include Congressional responses, NATO spending updates, and any clarity on how tariff revenues might be used to fund defence expansion. Until those questions are answered, defence stocks are likely to remain sensitive to every policy headline.

Key takeaway

Defence stocks are back in focus as Trump’s budget proposal reshapes market expectations around military spending. The rapid rebound highlights how tightly the sector is tied to political direction rather than short-term earnings. With signs of rotation away from AI, defence could remain a dominant theme in 2026. Investors should monitor budget negotiations and geopolitical developments for confirmation.

Lockheed Martin technical outlook

Lockheed Martin has surged sharply from the $480 support zone, briefly testing the $540 resistance before encountering aggressive profit-taking. The move highlights strong upside momentum, but the swift rejection near resistance suggests the rally may be entering a digestion phase rather than extending immediately. Momentum indicators reflect this balance: the RSI has risen rapidly toward overbought territory, signalling strong bullish participation but also increasing the risk of near-term consolidation. 

Structurally, holding above $480 maintains the broader bullish bias, with deeper downside risk only emerging below $440. A sustained break above $540 would be needed to confirm trend continuation, while consolidation near current levels would be consistent with the market absorbing recent gains.

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates faster in 2026 than markets expect? According to analysts, the growing divide inside the Fed suggests that the outcome cannot be ruled out. While official projections still signal a cautious path, some policymakers argue that inflation has cooled enough to justify deeper and faster easing. 

With the Federal Funds Rate currently sitting between 3.50% and 3.75%, the debate now centres on whether monetary policy is still unnecessarily restrictive.

That question has taken on greater urgency after Fed Governor Stephen Miran publicly called for up to 150 basis points of rate cuts this year. His stance contrasts sharply with market pricing and with other officials advocating patience. As labour market data softens and inflation drifts closer to target, investors are watching closely for signs that the Fed may ultimately move faster than it currently signals.

What’s driving the Fed’s rate cut debate?

The core of the disagreement lies in how Fed officials interpret progress on inflation and labour market slack. Miran argues that underlying inflation is already running near 2.3%, close enough to the Fed’s 2% target to allow meaningful rate cuts without risking a resurgence in prices. From his perspective, keeping rates elevated is suppressing hiring rather than containing inflation.

Other policymakers are less convinced. Several regional Federal Reserve bank presidents favour holding rates steady until more post-shutdown data clarifies the true state of employment and price pressures. They warn that inflation has a history of re-accelerating when policy eases too early, especially if demand proves more resilient than expected.

Politics has added another layer to the debate. Miran, appointed temporarily to the Board of Governors by President Donald Trump, has echoed concerns from the White House about recession and stagflation risks. While the Fed operates independently, the renewed political scrutiny underscores how sensitive rate policy has become as growth slows.

Why it matters

This split matters because markets trade expectations, not just outcomes. Even subtle shifts in Fed rhetoric can reprice bonds, equities, and currencies within minutes. When policymakers openly disagree, volatility tends to rise as investors reassess whether official guidance still reflects the likely policy path.

Economists also warn that the cost of waiting may be higher than the Fed assumes. Bloomberg Economics notes that restrictive monetary policy affects employment with a lag, meaning current job losses may reflect decisions made months earlier. If the Fed delays easing until unemployment rises more sharply, it may be forced into larger cuts later, potentially destabilising markets.

Impact on markets and consumers

For consumers, the pace of rate cuts directly affects borrowing costs. Credit cards, auto loans, and home-equity lines remain closely tied to short-term rates, keeping household finances under strain even as inflation eases. Faster cuts would gradually lower monthly payments and improve disposable income, particularly for borrowers on variable rates.

Analysts noted that the markets are already reacting to the uncertainty. Bond yields have become increasingly sensitive to labour data, while equity valuations now hinge on whether growth can stabilise without further policy support. A faster-than-expected easing cycle would likely weaken the US dollar, support risk assets, and steepen the yield curve, signalling confidence in a soft landing.

If the more hawkish faction prevails, tighter conditions may persist for a longer period. That outcome would favour defensive equities and keep volatility elevated as investors adjust to a slower-moving Fed.

Expert outlook

Based on reports, official Federal Reserve projections currently indicate only one rate cut in 2026, highlighting the gap between internal forecasts and Miran’s calls for aggressive easing. The new Federal Open Market Committee voting rotation also leans more hawkish, reducing the likelihood of rapid policy shifts in the near term.

However, analysts stress that data will ultimately drive decisions. Employment indicators such as jobless claims, wage growth, and participation rates will carry more weight than headline inflation alone. If labour market cooling accelerates without a rebound in prices, pressure for faster cuts will intensify.

For now, the Fed’s division reflects uncertainty rather than dysfunction. Policymakers are grappling with how a post-pandemic economy responds to prolonged restraint - and that uncertainty may shape monetary policy throughout 2026.

Key takeaway

The Federal Reserve enters 2026 divided between caution and urgency. While official forecasts still favour limited easing, calls for deeper cuts reflect growing concern about labour market weakness. If jobs data continues to soften without reigniting inflation, the Fed may ultimately cut rates faster than markets expect. Investors should closely monitor employment indicators, as they may influence the pace of policy shifts.

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Gold’s failure to break above the $4,500 mark has prompted a natural question across markets: is XAU/USD simply catching its breath, or has the rally finally run out of steam? Reports suggest that prices have slipped back towards the $4,430–$4,450 area after a strong advance from November lows, as traders locked in profits and the US dollar showed modest signs of recovery.

So far, the evidence points to consolidation rather than capitulation. Data suggests that US job openings have dropped to 7.15 million, private payroll growth slowed to just 41,000, and markets are still pricing roughly 60 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. With Nonfarm Payrolls looming and geopolitics unresolved, gold’s next move will hinge on whether these forces can reignite upside momentum.

What’s driving gold right now?

The immediate drag on gold has come from positioning rather than panic. After stalling near $4,500 - a level that has repeatedly capped rallies - traders began trimming exposure following weeks of gains. That selling coincided with a firmer US dollar, supported by better-than-expected US services data.

 The ISM Services index rose to 54.4 in December, its strongest reading since October, suggesting pockets of resilience in the US economy.

Yet beneath the surface, the labour market is clearly cooling. Job openings declined by more than 300,000 in November, and private-sector hiring fell short of expectations for a second consecutive month. These figures reinforce the view that US growth is slowing gradually rather than reaccelerating, keeping Federal Reserve easing expectations intact. For gold, this balance has created a holding pattern, pressured by the dollar in the short term but supported by a softer macroeconomic trajectory.

Why it matters

This distinction between tactical selling and a shift in fundamentals is critical. Gold’s pullback has not been accompanied by a surge in real yields or a sharp repricing of Fed expectations. Instead, it reflects investors’ banking profits after a sharp rally. 

David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, described the move as “general profit-taking after that recent surge,” rather than the start of a broader unwind.

Longer-term demand signals remain constructive. Central banks continue to provide a steady bid, with China extending its gold-buying streak to 14 consecutive months in December. At the same time, futures markets still imply more than two quarter-point rate cuts this year. That combination keeps the strategic case for gold intact, even as short-term momentum softens.

Impact on the gold market and traders

Beyond macro data, technical and flow-driven forces are now influencing price action. According to reports, Gold faces near-term headwinds from the Bloomberg Commodity Index’s annual January rebalancing, which will reduce gold’s weighting from 20.4% to 14.9% to comply with diversification limits. 

Deutsche Bank estimates that this could trigger the sale of around 2.4 million troy ounces of gold over a five-day window, potentially resulting in a 2.5–3% price impact.

That said, history suggests these flows do not guarantee sustained downside. In several past rebalancing cycles, price movements aligned with weighting changes; however, last year proved an exception, as gold rose despite a reduction in index exposure. For traders, this creates a market where short-term volatility may increase, but where dips could still attract buyers if macro and geopolitical support holds.

Expert outlook

The next decisive test for gold comes with Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Consensus forecasts indicate approximately 60,000 new jobs in December, with the unemployment rate expected to edge down to 4.5%. 

A weaker-than-expected print would likely reinforce rate-cut expectations, weigh on the dollar, and give gold scope to regain upside momentum.

Geopolitics remains the wildcard. Tensions surrounding Greenland, ongoing US–Latin America developments following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and renewed trade frictions between China and Japan continue to underpin safe-haven demand. Analysts note that as long as uncertainty persists and the Fed remains on an easing path, gold’s pullbacks look more like resets than reversals.

Key takeaway

Gold’s pullback from $4,500 reflects consolidation rather than a loss of conviction. Mixed US data, a firmer dollar, and index-driven flows are shaping near-term moves, while easing expectations and geopolitical uncertainty continue to provide support. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next major catalyst for direction. Beyond that, the key question is whether buyers continue to step in on dips or whether the market demands a deeper reset before momentum returns.

Gold technical outlook

Gold remains in a broader bullish structure but is consolidating after failing to sustain a breakout above the $4,500 resistance zone, an area that has attracted renewed profit-taking. While price has pulled back toward the US$4,430 region, the move appears corrective rather than trend-breaking. 

Bollinger Bands remain elevated, reflecting still-high volatility following the rally, but the loss of upside momentum suggests a cooling phase is underway. The RSI is dipping smoothly toward the midline from overbought levels, signalling that bullish pressure is easing without yet flipping bearish. 

As long as gold holds above the $4,035 support zone, the underlying uptrend remains intact, with a deeper downside risk only emerging below $3,935. A sustained push back above $4,500 would be needed to reignite upside momentum, while consolidation above support would keep the bullish bias alive.

Alphabet has overtaken Apple in market capitalisation for the first time since 2019, closing Wednesday at $3.88 trillion compared with Apple’s $3.84 trillion. The reversal follows a sharp divergence in how investors are pricing artificial intelligence execution across Big Tech.

This is not a short-term market fluctuation. It reflects a deeper reassessment of which companies are turning AI investment into revenue, infrastructure, and long-term dominance. As the AI cycle matures, markets are becoming less patient with promises and more focused on delivery - a shift that now favours Alphabet.

What’s driving Alphabet’s breakout?

Alphabet’s resurgence has been powered by a decisive shift from defensive AI positioning to full-scale execution. The company ended 2025 up 65%, its strongest annual rally since 2009, after restoring confidence in its ability to compete at the infrastructure level of AI.

Investors responded positively to Alphabet’s willingness to challenge Nvidia’s dominance rather than rely solely on third-party solutions.

That momentum accelerated in November with the unveiling of Ironwood, Alphabet’s seventh-generation tensor processing unit. The chip has been positioned as a cost-efficient alternative for hyperscale AI workloads, particularly within Google Cloud. 

In December, Google followed up with Gemini 3, earning strong early reviews for improved reasoning and multimodal performance. Alphabet shares climbed more than 2% on Wednesday alone, closing at $322.03, as confidence returned.

Why it matters

This market cap shift highlights how AI leadership is now being judged. Alphabet controls a vertically integrated AI stack - custom chips, proprietary models, cloud infrastructure, and global distribution - giving it a strategic advantage as AI demand scales. That integration allows Alphabet to capture value across multiple layers rather than compete on features alone.

Analysts have taken note. Raymond James described Alphabet’s AI strategy as “commercially aligned with enterprise demand,” pointing to clear monetisation pathways rather than speculative use cases. Apple, by contrast, is being penalised for delayed execution at a time when speed has become a competitive necessity.

Impact on the tech market

Alphabet’s surpassing of Apple is influencing capital allocation across the tech sector. Investors are shifting their focus toward companies that demonstrate AI-driven revenue visibility, particularly in enterprise cloud services.

On Alphabet’s October earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai revealed that Google Cloud signed more $1 billion-plus deals in 2025 through Q3 than in the previous two years combined, underscoring institutional adoption.

Apple’s position looks more fragile. Shares have fallen more than 4% over the past five days, reflecting concerns about execution risk. The delayed rollout of Apple’s next-generation Siri - now promised for 2026 - has left the company exposed as AI shifts from optional innovation to baseline expectation.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts expect Alphabet’s valuation to hinge on cloud growth rates and AI chip adoption through 2026. While competition from Microsoft and Nvidia remains intense, Alphabet’s ability to deploy proprietary hardware internally provides margin control that few rivals can match. A UBS strategist noted that Alphabet is now “setting the cost curve for enterprise AI rather than reacting to it”.

Apple faces a narrower window. Raymond James downgraded the stock this week, warning that gains may be limited in 2026 unless Apple delivers a step-change in AI capability rather than incremental upgrades. Markets will be watching whether Apple’s long-awaited AI push can restore confidence or confirm Alphabet’s structural lead.

Key takeaway

Alphabet’s leap past Apple signals a market that now rewards AI execution over brand legacy. By aligning chips, models, and cloud infrastructure, Alphabet has positioned itself as a full-stack AI leader. Apple’s delay highlights how costly hesitation has become in this cycle. The next test will be whether AI revenues can scale faster than the capital required to sustain them.

Alphabet technical outlook

Alphabet is pressing back toward the $323 resistance level after a strong multi-month rally, with price consolidating just below a key supply zone that has previously attracted profit-taking. 

The broader structure remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows intact, while the recent pullback has been absorbed without damaging trend support. Momentum indicators suggest a stretched yet constructive setup: the RSI is rising sharply toward overbought territory, indicating strong upside momentum, but also increasing the likelihood of near-term consolidation. 

On the downside, the $280 level remains a key support zone, with a deeper correction only coming into view below $240. A sustained break above $323 would likely confirm a bullish continuation, while a failure to clear the resistance could see the price pause to digest gains rather than signal a trend reversal.

Silver prices have surged to historic highs as geopolitical shocks collide with a market already strained by years of physical shortages. Spot silver has surpassed $80 per ounce, extending gains of more than 140% in 2025, despite US Treasury yields remaining elevated and the dollar holding firm.

This rally is not being driven solely by speculative excess. The combination of escalating geopolitical risk, tightening control over physical supply, and relentless industrial demand has altered the structure of the silver market itself. As paper prices struggle to reflect physical scarcity, investors are being forced to rethink what silver is worth - and why.

What’s driving Silver’s rise?

Geopolitics has returned as a central force in commodity pricing, and silver has emerged as an unexpected focal point. According to sources, the US military’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has unsettled global markets, reigniting fears of wider intervention across Latin America. 

President Donald Trump’s pledge that the US would “run” Venezuela, combined with threats directed at Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland, has injected persistent uncertainty into risk assets, according to analysts.

Historically, such episodes pushed investors toward gold. This time, silver has moved faster. Morgan Stanley strategist Amy Gower warned that geopolitical events “bring upside risks to precious metals,” reaffirming a constructive outlook for metals into 2026. 

The difference now lies in market tightness. Silver entered this geopolitical shock with little spare capacity, leaving prices highly sensitive to disruption.

Why it matters

Silver’s current rally challenges long-held assumptions about how precious metals behave in times of stress. Past spikes, including the Hunt brothers’ corner in 1980 and the quantitative easing surge in 2011, were ultimately undone by available inventories and leverage-driven excess. When pressure mounted, supply emerged, and prices collapsed.

Today’s setup looks fundamentally different. For several consecutive years, global silver demand has exceeded mine production and recycling. Industrial consumption - led by solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics - has expanded rapidly, while above-ground inventories have steadily drained. 

Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar noted that diversification away from the US dollar should gain momentum, with gold as the main beneficiary, but silver’s hybrid role gives it a distinct edge.

Impact on markets and industry

The silver market is now grappling with a growing disconnect between paper contracts and physical metal. Futures prices continue to be driven by liquidity and margin dynamics, but physical buyers are paying a significantly different price. While the heavily traded COMEX March 2026 contract closed near $72 per ounce, one-ounce silver coins in Dubai are trading close to $100, a spread that far exceeds normal fabrication premiums.

This divergence reflects stress rather than speculation. Industrial users cannot substitute paper silver for physical metal. Solar manufacturers, electronics firms, and EV producers require real supply, and geopolitical constraints are tightening access. China’s decision to classify silver as a strategic commodity has further restricted exports, turning each outbound shipment into a political decision rather than a simple response to price signals.

Expert outlook

Attempts to cool the rally have had limited success. CME Group recently raised margin requirements on silver futures by more than 60%, forcing leveraged traders to reduce exposure and increasing short-term volatility. 

Veteran trader Francis Hunt argues that such measures “shake out weak hands” but do nothing to solve the underlying shortage. In a structurally tight market, higher margins cannot create new ounces.

Looking ahead, analysts see volatility as inevitable but not necessarily bearish. As long as industrial demand continues to rise and geopolitical risk constrains supply, pullbacks are likely to attract buyers rather than signal exhaustion. The silver market is increasingly behaving less like a speculative trade and more like a strategic resource.

Key takeaway

Silver’s rise is not simply a reaction to geopolitical fear. It reflects a market shaped by years of under-supply, rising industrial demand, and tightening political control over physical flows. Margin hikes and volatility may slow the pace, but they cannot reverse the structural imbalance. The next signals to watch are industrial demand trends, Chinese export policy, and whether physical premiums continue to widen.

Silver technical outlook

Silver is extending its strong bullish advance but is now stalling just below the $83 resistance zone, an area that has historically attracted profit-taking. The rally has been fuelled by expanding Bollinger Bands, signalling elevated volatility and aggressive upside momentum. 

However, momentum indicators suggest the move is becoming stretched: the RSI is rising sharply toward overbought territory, increasing the risk of near-term consolidation rather than signalling an immediate reversal. 

Structurally, the trend remains firmly constructive as long as price holds above the $57 support, with deeper downside protection at $50 and $46.93. A sustained break above $83 would likely reopen the upside, while failure to clear resistance could see silver pause to digest gains before the next directional move.

Crypto markets have started 2026 with renewed momentum after a sluggish end to last year, supported by fresh institutional inflows and fading year-end selling pressure. Bitcoin is up more than 7% since 1 January, Ether has gained around 9%, and several large-cap altcoins have posted double-digit weekly advances, indicating a broad-based recovery rather than a single-asset bounce.

Yet beneath the surface, the rally is unfolding in an environment of unusually thin liquidity. With spot volumes near multi-year lows and price sensitivity elevated, early-year strength is being tested by a familiar question for crypto markets: is this the start of a durable trend, or a fragile rebound vulnerable to sharp reversals?

What’s driving the early-2026 crypto rally?

The most important shift has been the return of institutional demand through U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs. After nearly two months of sustained outflows in late 2025, the 11 approved funds recorded more than $1 billion in net inflows over the first two trading days of 2026, signalling an abrupt end to the recent de-risking phase.

These flows have helped stabilise prices during a period of low liquidity, particularly for Bitcoin and Ether.

Seasonality has reinforced the move. The pressure from tax-loss harvesting, which capped upside through December, has faded, allowing risk appetite to re-emerge as fresh annual allocations come into play. QCP Capital described the shift as a potential regime change, with crypto once again aligning with broader risk assets as policy optionality and macro positioning regain focus. 

Geopolitical developments have added a defensive dimension to the rally. The U.S. military strike on Venezuela triggered a haven bid across hard assets, including gold and Bitcoin, while speculation around increased Venezuelan oil supply under U.S. guidance introduced a disinflationary narrative. Lower oil prices would ease inflation pressure and strengthen the case for faster rate cuts - a macro backdrop that tends to favour both technology stocks and crypto assets.

Why it matters

This early-year strength is significant because it suggests that crypto markets may be emerging from a prolonged corrective phase rather than staging a short-lived relief rally. Price action across large-cap tokens supports that view. XRP surged nearly 29% on the week, Solana gained more than 20%, and Dogecoin rallied sharply, reflecting renewed appetite for higher-beta exposure alongside Bitcoin.

However, confidence remains uneven. Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital, noted that the rally reflects a mix of fresh risk budgets, asset rotation, and flows into hard assets driven by geopolitical headlines. That blend of motives makes the recovery more complex - and potentially more fragile - than a pure risk-on surge.

For investors, the message is nuanced. Momentum has improved, but participation is still selective. Without broader conviction across spot markets, price gains remain highly sensitive to incremental flows rather than deep structural demand.

Impact on crypto market structure

One of the clearest consequences of thin liquidity has been amplified price movement. Spot volumes across major exchanges remain at their lowest levels since late 2023, leaving order books shallow and vulnerable to large trades.  In such conditions, relatively modest inflows can push prices sharply higher - but the same dynamic applies in reverse.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, warned that while short-term structure has flipped from weakness to strength, weak volume increases the risk of sharp extensions or abrupt pullbacks. According to Subburaj, the current setup is constructive, but conviction is not yet broad-based.

Derivatives markets are reflecting cautious optimism rather than outright euphoria. Options data from Deribit shows traders accumulating call options around the $98,000–$100,000 range for Bitcoin, alongside bullish positioning in Ether between $3,200 and $3,400. While positioning is directional, volumes remain modest, suggesting traders are hedging upside exposure rather than aggressively chasing it.

Expert outlook

From a technical perspective, the broader crypto market is showing early signs of structural improvement, led by Bitcoin’s breakout above its prior descending channel. That move signals a shift away from persistent sell-side control, but the lack of strong follow-through keeps the rally on probation rather than confirmation.

Key resistance zones - particularly Bitcoin’s $94,000–$96,000 area - will act as a litmus test for broader market strength. Sustained acceptance above these levels, supported by expanding volatility and rising spot participation, would strengthen the case for a more durable uptrend across crypto assets.

Analysts at Bitfinex emphasise that upcoming ETF flow data will be critical. Persistent inflows could anchor prices during low-liquidity conditions, while any slowdown risks exposing the market’s fragile depth. For now, crypto enters 2026 with momentum — but not yet with full conviction.

 Key takeaway

Crypto markets have entered 2026 with renewed momentum, driven by institutional inflows, fading seasonal pressure, and supportive macro narratives. However, thin liquidity remains the defining risk, amplifying both upside and downside moves. Whether this rally evolves into a durable trend will depend on sustained participation and improving market depth. Until then, strength should be respected - but not mistaken for certainty.

BTC technical outlook

Bitcoin is attempting a bullish recovery after defending the $84,700 support zone, with price pushing back toward the $94,000 area and reclaiming the upper half of its recent range. The rebound has been accompanied by expanding Bollinger Bands, signalling a pickup in volatility as buyers step back in. 

Momentum indicators, however, suggest that the move may be entering a more tactical phase: the RSI is rising sharply toward overbought territory, indicating strong short-term momentum but also increasing the risk of near-term profit-taking. 

Structurally, upside remains capped by resistance at $96,000, followed by $106,600 and $114,000, where previous rallies stalled. As long as BTC holds above $84,700, the broader structure remains constructive, but sustained upside will likely require consolidation to absorb overbought conditions before a more durable advance can unfold.

AMD and Nvidia used CES 2026 to redraw the AI-chip battlefield. While AMD is pushing AI everywhere, from PCs to embedded edge, Nvidia is doubling down on full-stack AI supercomputers for hyperscalers.

Nvidia (NVDA) is trading near the top of its 52‑week range in the high‑$180s to low‑$190s, after a 2025 run powered by data-centre GPU demand and hyperscaler AI capex. AMD (AMD) has logged ~70% 1‑year gains, but still trades at a discount to NVDA on price‑to‑sales despite investors increasingly treating it as “AI beta with catch‑up potential.”

AMD: “AI everywhere” from PC to accelerator

At CES, AMD expanded its Ryzen AI portfolio with new Ryzen AI 400 / AI Max+ laptop chips, as well as a fresh Ryzen AI Embedded line built on Zen 5, targeting automotive, industrial, and “physical AI” deployments. Management is explicitly pitching the PC install base as a distributed AI edge, with OEM designs expected to ramp through 2026.

On the data-centre side, AMD is extending its MI300/MI455 accelerator roadmap, positioning these GPUs as lower-cost, more open alternatives to Nvidia for training and inference at scale, with coverage flagging OpenAI-type customers as realistic adopters. For trading desks, AMD screens as a classic “share‑gain story”: smaller installed base, but significant operating leverage if ROCm, MI‑series wins, and Ryzen AI attach rates come through.

Nvidia: doubling down on AI supercomputers

Nvidia answered with the Rubin platform - six new chips, including Rubin GPUs, Vera CPUs and updated NVLink 6 / Spectrum‑X networking, sold as a turnkey AI supercomputer stack. 

Rubin is explicitly aimed at “AI factories” for advanced models and agentic workloads, with first systems due in the second half of 2026.

Crucially, Rubin is being rolled out with all four major hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle Cloud) and specialist GPU clouds, reinforcing Nvidia’s role at the centre of AI infrastructure spend. From a trading perspective, NVDA remains the de facto AI index: richly valued, but underpinned by multi‑year cloud capex; any visible shift toward custom ASICs or slower AI budgets is the key risk to the current multiple

Why it matters

CES 2026 underlined that the AI trade is entering a more demanding phase. The easy narrative - “AI equals GPUs equals upside” - is fading. What matters now is where AI workloads actually land, how durable capital spending proves to be, and which vendors retain pricing power as inference, efficiency and deployment take centre stage.

Nvidia’s strategy reinforces its position at the core of hyperscaler AI budgets, but that concentration cuts both ways. As training matures and inference scales, margins are likely to compress and competition - from AMD, custom silicon, and cloud-native alternatives - will intensify. Execution risk is rising just as valuations remain elevated.

AMD, by contrast, is leaning into breadth rather than dominance. Its “AI everywhere” approach positions it to benefit if AI adoption spreads beyond mega-scale data centres into PCs, industrial systems and embedded use cases. For markets, that makes AMD less about outright leadership and more about incremental share capture across a widening AI surface area.

In short, CES confirmed that AI is no longer a single-trade story. The next leg will be shaped by deployment economics, not just compute ambition.

Strategic read‑through for the AI‑chips trade

CES 2026 confirms that neither vendor is selling bare chips anymore; both are shipping platforms - silicon, plus interconnect, plus software ecosystems (CUDA vs. ROCm) and reference systems. 

For investors, the core questions are now: who wins incremental hyperscaler workloads, how much pricing power survives as AMD, custom silicon and regulatory pressure ramp, and how durable AI capex is through the next macro slowdown. 

Within that framework, Nvidia remains the high-conviction core AI infrastructure exposure, while AMD offers higher-beta upside if its “AI everywhere” strategy delivers real share gains in accelerators and PC/edge AI over the next 12– 24 months.

Key takeaway

CES 2026 highlighted a clear strategic divergence. According to analysts, Nvidia is a high-conviction, system-level bet on hyperscaler AI infrastructure, but with rising sensitivity to inference economics, pricing pressure and macro conditions. AMD offers higher-beta upside through its push to embed AI across PCs, edge devices and alternative accelerator stacks - a riskier path, but one with meaningful leverage if adoption broadens over the next 12–24 months.

For investors and traders, the AI-chip trade is evolving from a momentum story into a selectivity trade, where platform stickiness, cost efficiency and workload mix matter as much as raw performance.

AMD and Nvidia technical outlook

AMD is stabilising after a volatile pullback from the $260 highs, with price consolidating around the $223 area as buyers cautiously step back in. While the broader structure remains range-bound, momentum is improving: the RSI is rising smoothly above the midline, signalling a gradual rebuild in bullish conviction rather than a sharp risk-on surge. 

From a structural perspective, the $187 support remains a key downside level, with a break below likely to trigger liquidation-driven selling, while the deeper $155 zone marks longer-term trend support. 

On the upside, the $260 resistance continues to cap the recovery, meaning AMD will need sustained buying pressure to confirm a renewed trend higher. For now, price action suggests consolidation with a mild bullish bias, rather than a decisive breakout.

NVIDIA is attempting to stabilise after its recent pullback, with price reclaiming the $189 area and moving back toward the middle of its broader range. The rebound from the $170 support zone has improved short-term structure, while momentum is beginning to turn constructive: the RSI is rising sharply just above the midline, signalling strengthening buying interest rather than a purely technical bounce. 

That said, upside progress remains capped by resistance at $196 and the key $208 level, where previous rallies have triggered profit-taking. As long as NVDA holds above $170, the broader structure remains intact, but a sustained break above $196 would be needed to confirm a more durable bullish continuation.

According to analysts, Nvidia’s next leg higher in 2026 will hinge on its ability to turn AI inference into a durable profit engine. While the company remains the backbone of AI training infrastructure, Wall Street increasingly views inference - the stage where trained models generate real-time outputs - as the defining battleground for the next phase of growth. 

That view comes as semiconductor stocks opened 2026 with force, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 4% in the first session of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 0.19% rise.

The shift matters because inference is where efficiency, pricing power, and competition collide. Analysts warn that Nvidia now faces a more execution-driven market, where elevated valuations leave little margin for disappointment. With CES keynotes, a critical U.S. jobs report, and key product launches approaching, the coming weeks may shape how investors price Nvidia’s 2026 prospects.

What’s driving Nvidia in 2026?

The macro backdrop remains a powerful force. Semiconductor stocks are highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations because a significant portion of their value is tied to future earnings. As a result, even modest changes in Treasury yields can trigger sharp sector moves. 

Investors enter 2026 still debating whether the Federal Reserve can ease policy later in the year without reigniting inflation, a balance that directly influences appetite for long-duration growth stocks like Nvidia.

At the company level, Nvidia’s growth narrative is evolving. The AI boom is no longer just about training massive models but about deploying them at scale. Inference workloads are rising rapidly as enterprises integrate AI into everyday operations, from search to customer support. Nvidia’s strategy reflects that shift, focusing on performance-per-watt, total cost of ownership, and ecosystem lock-in rather than raw computing power alone.

Why it matters

For investors, Nvidia’s transition comes with heightened expectations, according to analysts. The stock ended the latest session near $189, following a broader semiconductor rally that left valuations stretched. Market participants describe the prevailing mood as tactical rather than long-term, with Charles Schwab strategist Joe Mazzola noting that “buy the dip, sell the rip” remains the dominant mindset.

Analysts broadly agree that Nvidia’s leadership remains intact, but they are paying closer attention to competitive dynamics. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a buy rating and a $275 price target even while calling Nvidia’s late-2025 deal with Groq “surprising” and raising questions about exclusivity and pricing pressure. The message is clear: confidence remains, but scrutiny is rising.

Impact on the semiconductor market

Nvidia’s strategic decisions ripple far beyond its own balance sheet. Chipmakers operate within tightly linked supply chains, meaning changes in Nvidia’s product mix or pricing can affect foundries, memory suppliers, and rival designers. That interdependence is why appearances by Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang and AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su at CES are viewed as sector-wide signals rather than company-specific events.

The broader market impact also runs through interest rates. Semiconductor stocks are among the most yield-sensitive equities, benefiting when bond yields fall and struggling when they rise. A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report could reignite concerns about sticky inflation, pushing yields higher and pressuring chip valuations. In that sense, Nvidia often trades as a proxy for both AI optimism and macro confidence.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts say Nvidia’s 2026 story is less about expansion and more about execution. The company’s non-exclusive licensing and talent agreement with Groq underscored that shift. Early reports framed the deal as a $20 billion acquisition, but the reality was a strategic partnership that gives Nvidia access to inference-focused expertise without full ownership.

Attention now turns to Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chip launch, expected to be a cornerstone of its inference strategy. Analysts will closely monitor signals for performance gains, energy efficiency, and customer adoption. At the same time, traders are monitoring whether Nvidia can hold the psychologically important $190 level. A sustained break lower would suggest recent gains were driven by positioning rather than new fundamentals, particularly if macro data turns unfavourable.

Key takeaway

According to analysts, Nvidia’s ability to drive its next leg higher in 2026 depends on execution in AI inference rather than headline-grabbing growth alone. The company still dominates AI infrastructure, but competition and macro sensitivity are rising. Elevated valuations leave little room for disappointment. Investors will be watching macro data, product timelines, and pricing power closely as Nvidia’s 2026 story unfolds.

Nvidia technical outlook

NVIDIA is rebounding from the $171 support zone, with price pushing back above the US$190 area and regaining the middle of its recent range. The recovery is being accompanied by improving momentum signals: the RSI is rising sharply above the midline, indicating strengthening bullish participation rather than a purely technical bounce. 

Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen again after a period of compression, suggesting volatility is returning as buyers step back in. That said, upside progress remains capped by resistance at $196 and the key $207 level, where previous rallies have attracted profit-taking. 

As long as NVDA holds above $171, the broader structure remains constructive, but a decisive break above $196 would be needed to confirm a more sustained bullish continuation.

Geopolitical shocks once sent oil prices sharply higher, but analysts say that playbook no longer works on its own. Despite the dramatic removal of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and President Donald Trump’s pledge to send US oil majors back into the country, crude prices barely reacted. US benchmark oil hovered near $57 a barrel, while Brent traded just above $60, levels close to five-year lows.

According to analysts, the explanation lies in market structure rather than politics. Global supply remains abundant, demand growth is subdued, and spare capacity elsewhere can absorb disruptions. Until that balance changes, geopolitical events may generate headlines, but they struggle to generate sustained upside for crude.

What’s driving oil prices?

The dominant force shaping the outlook for oil is oversupply. The global market is already dealing with excess barrels as OPEC+ holds output steady and non-OPEC producers, led by the United States, continue pumping at or near record levels. US crude prices fell by around 20% last year, underscoring the resilience of supply in the face of softer consumption trends.

Venezuela’s political shift adds uncertainty, but not immediate scarcity. The country currently produces roughly 800,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day, down from more than 3.5 million barrels per day at its peak in the late 1990s. Even optimistic scenarios assume a slow recovery, requiring years of investment and stable governance before meaningful volumes return to global markets.

Why it matters

For traders and policymakers alike, timing is critical. Oil markets price what can be delivered now, not what might be produced in five years. While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves at 303 billion barrels, those reserves remain constrained by deteriorated infrastructure, sanctions, and political risk.

Goldman Sachs’ head of oil research, Daan Struyven, has described the impact of Maduro’s removal as ambiguous in the near term. Sanctions relief could eventually lead to increased output, but short-term disruptions remain possible, and any recovery is likely to be gradual. In the meantime, surplus conditions continue to dominate the price formation process.

Impact on the Oil market

The practical implication is a ceiling on prices rather than a floor. Analysts estimate that even full sanctions relief could bring back only several hundred thousand barrels per day over the first year, assuming an orderly transition of power. That increase would be easily offset by marginal supply growth elsewhere.

This dynamic explains why Brent briefly dipped below $61 before stabilising and why volatility has remained contained. As Capital Economics noted, any Venezuelan disruption can be absorbed by spare capacity, particularly since OPEC+ is unlikely to tighten supply aggressively while demand growth remains uncertain.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, analysts largely expect oil to remain range-bound with downside risks. Capital Economics forecasts that crude prices will drift towards $50 a barrel over the next year as global supply growth continues to outpace demand. A successful Venezuelan recovery would reinforce that trajectory rather than reverse it.

The key uncertainty is execution. Industry executives estimate it would cost around $10 billion a year to rehabilitate Venezuela’s oil sector, and only a stable political environment would unlock that capital. Until investors see credible reforms and lasting sanctions relief, Venezuelan oil remains a long-term story in a market focused on near-term balances.

Key takeaway

Geopolitical drama no longer guarantees higher oil prices. With global supply abundant and Venezuelan output years away from a meaningful recovery, fundamentals continue to cap crude’s upside. Until demand strengthens or producers cut supply more aggressively, analysts expect oil to remain under pressure. Traders should watch sanctions policy, OPEC discipline, and US production data for the next decisive signal.

Oil technical outlook

US oil remains under near-term pressure as price struggles to regain traction above the 57.47–58.40 resistance zone, keeping the broader structure tilted to the downside. Recent attempts to stabilise have been met with renewed selling, and price is now hovering just above the 56.40 area, with the 55.37 support acting as a key downside pivot. 

Momentum indicators reinforce this cautious outlook: the RSI has dipped below the midline, signalling weakening bullish momentum, while price continues to trade below the key resistance cluster. Bollinger Bands suggest volatility remains elevated, but without clear directional conviction. 

A sustained break below 55.37 could open the door to deeper liquidation-driven selling, while any recovery would need a decisive move back above 58.40 to shift the short-term bias.