Bitcoin’s latest decline has unsettled markets already on edge. After slipping to around $64,000 last week, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now more than 40% below its October peak, erasing much of the optimism that defined late 2025. What initially looked like a routine pullback is beginning to resemble something more structural.

Veteran traders, technical analysts, and policymakers are now converging around a troubling idea: Bitcoin may not have found its true bottom yet. With forecasts clustering between $50,000 and $42,000, the market is shifting from short-term noise to a deeper reassessment of risk and liquidity.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s slide?

The selloff has been driven less by a single shock and more by the slow deflation of expectations. Bitcoin’s run toward six figures last year rested on ETF inflows, improving regulatory sentiment, and hopes that institutional demand would provide a permanent price floor. That narrative weakened once Bitcoin failed to hold above key psychological levels, triggering mechanical selling and leveraged liquidations.

Veteran chartist Peter Brandt added fuel to the debate after describing the recent decline as a “banana peel” move - a sudden slip that caught traders off balance. 

In a post on X, Brandt suggested Bitcoin’s true cycle low could be closer to $42,000, arguing that only a deeper retracement would reset sentiment and positioning. Rather than calming nerves, the call intensified downside anxiety.

Liquidity conditions have also tightened. Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,033 last week, its lowest level since October 2024, sparking the sharpest volatility spike since the collapse of FTX in 2022. Funding rates flipped negative as traders rushed to hedge or short, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s decline matters because the market has changed. Crypto is no longer a fringe asset dominated by retail traders. Hedge funds, trading desks, and exchange-traded products now amplify both gains and losses, making breakdowns faster and more forceful.

One analyst now in focus is KillaXBT, whose Bitcoin roadmap from mid-2025 accurately mapped the market top above $100,000. His resurfaced analysis suggests Bitcoin is currently stuck in a distribution phase, where larger players sell into rallies rather than accumulate. According to the model, a final capitulation toward the $50,000 area may be required before a durable base forms.

That view is reinforced by sentiment indicators. Measures such as Crypto Fear and Greed have fallen to multi-year lows, often a prerequisite for a bottom, but historically only after sellers are fully exhausted.

Impact on crypto markets and investors

The broader crypto market has felt the strain. Altcoins have largely underperformed Bitcoin, with many suffering sharper drawdowns as risk appetite evaporates. Stellar (XLM), for instance, dropped more than 16% over the past week before stabilising near $0.16, showing tentative signs of relative resilience.

Investor behaviour is also shifting. Rather than chasing rebounds in large-cap tokens, speculative capital is rotating into smaller, narrative-driven projects, particularly those linked to artificial intelligence. This pattern mirrors previous late-cycle phases, where traders seek asymmetric upside while limiting direct exposure to Bitcoin’s volatility.

For longer-term holders, the implications are more strategic. Without the formation of a macro base - a prolonged period where price stabilises - further declines could reshape portfolio allocations, ETF flows, and institutional risk models well into the year.

Expert outlook

Policy signals are adding another layer of uncertainty. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently noted that the post-election optimism that lifted crypto markets may be fading, as mainstream financial firms reassess exposure and manage risk more tightly.

From a market perspective, analysts agree that structure now matters more than sentiment. A sustained break below $60,000 would increase the probability of a move toward $50,000 or even $42,000. Conversely, a decisive reclaim of the $70,000 region would challenge the bearish thesis and suggest that institutional demand is returning.

Until clarity emerges, volatility remains the dominant signal. Bitcoin’s next move is likely to be shaped less by headlines and more by whether the price can stabilise without narrative support.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin has moved lower within its recent structure, with price declining from the upper range and stabilising near the lower portion of the chart around the $69,000 area. Bollinger Bands remain expanded, indicating elevated volatility following the recent downside acceleration, even as price trades back inside the bands. 

Momentum indicators show subdued conditions: the RSI is flat and below the midline, suggesting weakened momentum following the earlier decline rather than renewed directional strength. Trend strength appears moderate, with ADX readings indicating a trend but without strong directional dominance.

 Structurally, price remains below the previously defined zones around $78,000, $90,000, and $96,000, highlighting a market environment characterised by consolidation following a sharp repricing rather than active price discovery.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s slide has exposed how fragile last year’s optimism really was. With analysts warning that the true bottom may still lie ahead, the market faces a critical test of structure and conviction. Whether this phase marks a final wash-out or the start of a deeper reset will depend on liquidity, institutional behaviour, and Bitcoin’s ability to form a stable base. The next few weeks could define the remainder of the cycle.

Yes - the evidence increasingly points to a supply-led rally taking shape across key metals. Silver inventories have collapsed to multi-year lows, while copper production in Chile, the world’s largest supplier, continues to fall even as prices remain historically elevated. This is not a sugar rush. It is a structural squeeze.

When prices rise alongside shrinking stockpiles and weakening output, markets tend to quickly reprice risk. Silver and copper now sit at the centre of that adjustment, with physical availability, not speculative appetite, setting the tone for what comes next.

What’s driving the tightness in Silver and Copper?

Silver’s story begins with physical scarcity. Deliverable inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015 and an 88% decline from the 2021 peak.

That drawdown reflects years of steady industrial demand combined with limited mine growth and aggressive export flows. In 2025, China shipped large volumes of silver to London, easing global bottlenecks while hollowing out domestic reserves.

Price action has started to reflect that fragility. Even as XAG/USD dipped towards $82.50 this week on profit-taking and a firmer US Dollar, selling pressure remained shallow. Traders appear reluctant to push prices materially lower, given already stretched physical availability. Silver is no longer trading purely on macro headlines; supply is exerting its own gravity.

Copper’s constraint is more structural and arguably more troubling. Chile’s copper exports rose 7.9% year-on-year in January to $4.55 billion, but the increase was driven by a 34% jump in prices, not higher volumes. Output has now declined annually for five straight months, as ageing mines, falling ore grades, labour disruptions and operational setbacks take their toll.

Why it matters

When prices rise without production responding, markets are forced to reassess long-term assumptions. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence have warned that Chile’s struggles reflect a broader mining reality: new copper supply is increasingly expensive, slow to develop, and vulnerable to disruption. High prices alone are no longer enough to unlock meaningful output growth.

Silver faces a parallel problem. Much of its supply comes as a by-product of other mining activity, limiting producers’ ability to respond quickly to price signals. As one London-based metals strategist put it, “Silver looks cheap until you try to find it.” In tight physical markets, even modest demand shocks can trigger outsized price moves.

Impact on markets, industry, and inflation

For markets, the implication is a shift in regime. Metals rallies driven by supply constraints tend to be more persistent than those driven by cyclical demand. Silver’s sensitivity to US macro data remains intact, but each pullback now runs into the reality of depleted inventories. That changes trader behaviour, encouraging dip-buying rather than momentum selling.

For industry, especially renewables and electrification, the stakes are higher. Silver is critical to solar panel manufacturing, while copper underpins everything from power grids to electric vehicles. Persistent supply tightness raises input costs and complicates long-term planning, feeding through into broader inflation dynamics.

For policymakers, this creates an uncomfortable backdrop. Even if demand cools, constrained metals supply can keep price pressures alive. That complicates the narrative around disinflation and reinforces commodities’ role as a structural inflation hedge rather than a cyclical trade.

Expert outlook

Silver’s near-term path will continue to pivot around US data, including Retail Sales and delayed labour market reports. Signs of economic cooling or softer inflation would likely support prices, particularly given silver’s safe-haven appeal amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Copper’s outlook is slower-moving but no less consequential. Mining analysts broadly agree that Chile’s production issues will not be resolved quickly. New projects face technical, environmental and political hurdles, while existing operations struggle with declining grades. Even if prices consolidate, the absence of surplus capacity suggests copper is entering a prolonged period of structural tightness.

Silver technical outlook

Silver has stabilised after a sharp retracement from recent highs, with price consolidating near the middle of its recent range following an extended upside move. Bollinger Bands remain widely expanded, indicating that volatility is still elevated despite the recent moderation in price action. 

Momentum indicators reflect this pause: the RSI has flattened around the midline after dropping from overbought territory, suggesting a neutral momentum profile following the earlier extreme conditions. 

Trend strength remains elevated, as evidenced by high ADX readings, indicating that the broader trend environment remains strong even as short-term momentum has cooled. Structurally, price continues to trade well above earlier consolidation zones around $57 and $46.93, underscoring the scale of the prior advance.

Key takeaway

Silver and copper are no longer trading on sentiment alone. Shrinking inventories and faltering production suggest metals markets are entering a supply-led phase, where scarcity sets the price floor. Silver’s tight physical market and copper’s mining constraints point to sustained upside risk, even amid macro volatility. The next chapter depends less on demand surprises and more on whether supply can recover at all.

Yes - sustained AI spending can still push Nvidia shares higher, but the easy gains are likely behind it, according to analysts. The next phase depends less on hype and more on whether hyperscalers continue to commit capital at scale, and whether Nvidia can defend margins as competition intensifies.

That question moved to the foreground this week after Nvidia shares rebounded sharply, rising more than 8% in a single session. The catalyst was not Nvidia’s own earnings, but Amazon’s forecast of roughly $200 billion in capital expenditure for 2025, much of it aimed at AI infrastructure. For investors, it was a reminder that the AI build-out remains very real - even as valuations face tougher scrutiny.

What’s driving Nvidia now?

Amazon’s spending guidance landed at a crucial moment for Nvidia. Earlier in the week, the stock had been under pressure as investors reassessed stretched tech valuations following a broad sell-off. Amazon’s outlook reframed that weakness. 

A $200 billion capex plan does not signal caution; it signals acceleration. Nvidia remains the primary supplier of high-performance GPUs powering hyperscale AI data centres, making it a direct beneficiary of that spending.

The market reaction revealed where investor confidence truly lies. Amazon shares fell on the earnings miss, yet Nvidia surged. That divergence underlines Nvidia’s unique position in the AI ecosystem. Demand for compute is no longer theoretical or future-facing. It is embedded in current budgets, multi-year contracts, and strategic infrastructure decisions that are difficult to unwind once committed.

Why It Matters for Nvidia’s Valuation

Nvidia’s valuation has become the central battleground. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, Nvidia has delivered quarter after quarter of revenue beats, driven by explosive AI demand. That success pushed the stock into most institutional and retail portfolios, leaving less fresh capital on the sidelines to fuel automatic upside.

CEO Jensen Huang addressed this tension directly, calling the recent pullback in tech stocks “illogical”. While such comments naturally reflect corporate optimism, Huang’s remarks have historically carried weight with markets. Investors appear to be interpreting his stance as a signal that current valuations still reflect genuine earnings power rather than speculative excess.

Impact on the AI and semiconductor landscape

Nvidia’s rebound has implications beyond a single stock. It reinforces the idea that AI spending is becoming increasingly concentrated among a small group of mega-cap buyers, rather than fading altogether. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are not trimming AI budgets - they are scaling them.

For the semiconductor industry, this concentration favours Nvidia. Its competitive advantage extends beyond hardware into software, networking, and developer ecosystems, making switching costs high. While AMD and Broadcom are gaining traction, Nvidia’s integrated platform remains difficult to replicate at scale. That insulation gives Nvidia more pricing power than most peers, at least in the near term.

Expert outlook: Where the real test lies

Attention now turns to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings on 25 February. Goldman Sachs expects the company to deliver a revenue beat of around $2 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, forecasting revenue of $67.3 billion and earnings above consensus. The bank also projects Nvidia to outperform Street estimates for the following quarter.

However, Goldman struck a cautious note. With expectations already elevated, investors may shift their focus from short-term beats to Nvidia’s guidance for 2026 and 2027. In other words, the market is less interested in how strong AI demand has been and more concerned with how long Nvidia can sustain growth without margin compression as competition increases.

Key takeaway

AI spending can still push Nvidia higher, but the market’s tolerance for disappointment is shrinking. Amazon’s $200 billion capex plan reaffirmed Nvidia’s central role in the AI economy, supporting near-term optimism. Yet the stock’s next move will depend less on demand headlines and more on long-term guidance and margin resilience. Nvidia’s next test is no longer whether AI is real - it is whether dominance can be sustained.

Nvidia technical outlook

NVIDIA continues to trade within a broad consolidation range following earlier volatility, with price oscillating between the lower boundary near $170 and the upper zones around $196 and $210. 

Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion relative to earlier compression, indicating a pickup in volatility without a sustained directional move. Momentum indicators show a short-term rebound, with the RSI rising sharply above the midline after dipping, reflecting a recovery from weaker conditions rather than trend acceleration. Trend strength remains subdued, as ADX readings stay relatively low, suggesting limited directional dominance.

Silver prices are extending their gains, with XAG/USD trading close to $80.80 per ounce, as markets digest a rare combination of reflationary optimism and lingering geopolitical risk. The move comes as the US dollar slips to its weakest level since early February, easing pressure on dollar-priced metals and drawing renewed inflows into precious assets.

What makes this rally stand out is its timing. Investors are navigating Japan’s renewed push for fiscal expansion, fresh signals from US Federal Reserve officials, and cautious optimism around Middle East diplomacy. Together, these forces are reshaping how traders price silver’s dual role as both an inflation hedge and a macro risk asset.

What’s driving Silver?

Silver’s recent strength has been triggered by shifting global inflation expectations, led by political developments in Japan. The landslide election victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling coalition has reinforced expectations of expansionary fiscal policy.

Markets interpret this as a signal for sustained government spending, a weaker yen, and structurally higher inflation pressures. Historically, reflationary policy environments have supported demand for precious metals, particularly silver, which straddles both monetary and industrial use.

At the same time, traders are positioning ahead of key US labour market data. The January non-farm payrolls report is expected to show job growth slowing to around 70,000, with unemployment steady near 4.4%. 

Federal Reserve officials have struck a cautious tone. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the economy as drifting into a “low-hiring, low-firing” phase, while Fed Governor Philip Jefferson reiterated that policy will remain data-dependent. That uncertainty has kept real yields contained, a supportive backdrop for silver.

Why it matters

Silver’s resilience highlights a broader shift in how markets are pricing risk. Unlike gold, silver tends to benefit when inflation hedging and growth expectations overlap. Reflation signals from Japan are reinforcing that dynamic, while expectations for US rate cuts later this year are limiting upside in the dollar. Markets currently price the first Fed rate cut for June, with another possible by September.

Analysts note that silver is increasingly sensitive to policy divergence. “Silver is responding less to isolated data points and more to structural policy trends,” said one metals strategist quoted by Reuters, pointing to fiscal expansion in Asia and slower disinflation in the US as a powerful mix for hard assets. That shift helps explain why silver has held gains even as geopolitical tensions show tentative signs of easing.

Impact on Markets and Traders

Silver’s move is also being amplified by algorithmic and machine-learning-driven funds. Recent price swings in gold and silver have triggered systematic buying, particularly as volatility remains elevated and correlations with real yields tighten. 

With the US dollar trading at its lowest level since 4 February, overseas demand for dollar-denominated metals has strengthened, reinforcing upside momentum.

Bond market signals add another layer. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush balance-sheet reduction, even under potential new leadership. That stance suggests liquidity conditions may remain looser than previously expected, indirectly supporting metals. Meanwhile, investors are already pricing at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, extending silver’s medium-term appeal as a store of value.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, silver’s trajectory hinges on confirmation rather than speculation. A weaker-than-expected US jobs report would likely reinforce rate-cut expectations and keep real yields suppressed, a scenario that favours further upside. Conversely, a re-acceleration in wage growth could cap gains by reviving inflation-control concerns at the Fed.

Geopolitics remains a wildcard. While US–Iran talks in Oman have reduced immediate escalation risks, Tehran’s refusal to suspend uranium enrichment keeps uncertainty elevated. US President Donald Trump has warned of “very steep” consequences if talks fail, underscoring why safe-haven demand for silver has not faded. For now, traders appear inclined to buy dips rather than fade rallies.

Key takeaway

Silver’s hold near $80 reflects more than short-term speculation. Reflationary policy signals from Japan, softer US rate expectations, and a weaker dollar have created a supportive macro backdrop. While geopolitical risks have eased slightly, they continue to underpin demand. The next decisive move will depend on US labour data and confirmation of the Fed’s easing path.

Silver price outlook

Silver has moved lower after a sharp upside extension, with price retreating from recent highs and settling back toward the middle of its broader price structure. Bollinger Bands remain widely expanded, indicating that volatility is still elevated following the earlier acceleration, even as price has moved back inside the bands. 

Momentum indicators show a clear moderation from extreme conditions: the RSI has stabilised around the midline after previously reaching overbought levels, reflecting a cooling in momentum. Trend strength remains elevated, as evidenced by high ADX readings, suggesting the broader trend environment remains strong despite the recent retracement. Structurally, price continues to trade well above earlier consolidation zones around $57 and $46.93, underscoring the scale of the prior advance

On Friday evening in Seoul, a single keystroke briefly rewrote one of Bitcoin’s most sacred rules: scarcity. South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb accidentally credited users with 620,000 bitcoins - worth roughly $44 billion - instead of a ₩2,000 ($1.40) promotional reward, triggering a sharp but localised selloff that sent prices on the platform down 17% within minutes.

While the incident was reversed within 35 minutes and had no on-chain impact, it exposed a deeper structural vulnerability inside centralised exchanges. The episode wasn’t about hacking, fraud, or Bitcoin itself. It was about the fragile layer that sits between users and the blockchain, and why that layer may be crypto’s most underpriced risk.

What’s driving the Bitcoin story?

At the centre of the incident was a routine marketing promotion gone catastrophically wrong. Bithumb intended to distribute small cash rewards to 695 users. Instead, an internal script credited each recipient with at least 2,000 bitcoins. 

In total, 620,000 BTC were created inside the exchange’s internal ledger - nearly 3% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply - despite Bithumb holding fewer than 43,000 BTC in customer and corporate reserves.

Crucially, these bitcoins never existed on the blockchain. They were phantom balances generated by an internal accounting system that failed to validate rewards against actual reserves. The trading engine treated them as real, allowing users to sell into the order book. Roughly 1,786 BTC were dumped before trading was halted, briefly crushing prices on Bithumb while global markets remained unaffected.

Why it matters

To many observers, the headline sounded like a near-FTX moment. It wasn’t. Bithumb recovered 99.7% of the credited assets the same day and pledged to cover the remaining losses from corporate funds, including a 10% compensation bonus for affected traders. 

There was no solvency crisis, no customer fund misuse, and no on-chain movement of reserves. But regulators focused on something else. South Korea’s Financial Services Commission said the incident “exposed vulnerabilities and risks of virtual assets,” announcing reviews of internal control systems across domestic exchanges. Lawmaker Na Kyung-won put it more bluntly, warning that exchanges which merely shift internal figures without blockchain settlement are “effectively selling coins they do not possess”.

Impact on crypto markets and exchange trust

The immediate market impact was contained, but the structural implications are global. Every centralised exchange operates on the same principle: customer balances are database entries until withdrawal. Bithumb’s error showed that nothing inherently prevents those databases from displaying assets that do not exist - unless strong operational controls are in place.

This is not without precedent in South Korea. In 2018, Samsung Securities mistakenly issued 2.81 billion ghost shares due to a similar denomination error, causing lasting reputational and financial damage after those shares entered the national settlement system. The difference this time was containment. Bithumb’s phantom Bitcoin never touched the blockchain, allowing the exchange to reverse trades unilaterally before systemic contagion took hold.

Expert outlook

Analysts broadly agree this was not a Bitcoin failure but an exchange-design failure. On-chain data from CryptoQuant showed no abnormal reserve movements, reinforcing that Bitcoin’s supply mechanics remained intact. “The blockchain did exactly what it was designed to do - nothing,” noted one Seoul-based digital asset analyst, pointing instead to weak internal validation layers.

Looking ahead, tighter regulatory scrutiny appears inevitable. South Korea’s regulators have already signalled that on-site inspections will be conducted if further weaknesses emerge. For investors, the lesson is less about price volatility and more about counterparty risk. The line between an exchange balance and real Bitcoin remains thinner than many assume and Friday’s error made that gap visible.

Key takeaway

Bithumb didn’t break Bitcoin - it exposed the fragile accounting layer that sits between users and the blockchain. The incident showed how easily phantom assets can enter live markets when internal controls fail. While the damage was contained, the lesson is universal. As crypto adoption grows, the biggest risks may no longer live on-chain, but in the systems built on top of it. Investors should watch how regulators and exchanges respond next.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin has rebounded modestly after a sharp decline, with the price stabilising above the recent low near $63,000 and moving back toward the lower-middle portion of its recent range. Bollinger Bands remain widely expanded, indicating that volatility is still elevated following the recent downside acceleration, even as price has moved back inside the bands.

Momentum indicators show a partial recovery from extreme conditions: the RSI has risen from oversold territory and is now trending gradually toward the midline, reflecting a slowdown in downside momentum rather than a return to strong upside pressure. 

Trend strength appears to be moderating, with ADX readings lower than during the sell-off, suggesting a transition from strong directional movement into consolidation. Structurally, price remains below the former resistance zones around $78,000, $90,000, and $105,000, suggesting the broader structure remains dominated by the earlier breakdown rather than renewed price discovery.

Amazon’s $200 billion AI spending plan looks dramatic because it arrived at exactly the wrong moment. Markets were already fragile, tech sentiment was wobbling, and US stock futures were pointing lower as investors digested another bruising session on Wall Street.

By the time Amazon reported, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had slipped into negative territory for 2026, and patience was already thin.

So when Amazon shares plunged more than 10% after the bell - following a marginal earnings miss and a staggering capital expenditure forecast - the market’s verdict came quickly. This was not read as a sign of strategic strength, but as another stress test for investors already bracing for wreckage. The key question now is whether that reaction reflects genuine risk - or a short-term panic that may be missing the bigger picture.

What’s driving Amazon’s AI spending surge?

Amazon’s plan to invest around $200 billion in 2026 is not incremental spending. It is a deliberate acceleration across data centres, custom chips, robotics, logistics automation, and low-Earth-orbit satellite infrastructure. That figure dwarfs the roughly $125 billion spent in 2025 and comfortably exceeds analysts’ expectations, forcing markets to recalibrate assumptions in real time.

Crucially, Amazon insists this is demand-led. AWS revenue rose 24% year on year to $35.6 billion - its fastest growth in 13 quarters - as customers ramped up both core cloud workloads and AI adoption. CEO Andy Jassy was blunt on the earnings call: capacity is being monetised as fast as it can be installed. In other words, Amazon is not building empty data centres. It is racing to keep up.

Still, context matters. This spending landed in a market already leaning risk-off. Amazon’s slide rippled across tech, dragging sentiment lower as investors reassessed AI exposure more broadly. The reaction spilled into other assets too: bitcoin slid to levels not seen since 2024, silver resumed its decline after a retail-fuelled surge, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) revealed a quarterly loss driven by crypto weakness. This was not a calm market parsing nuance - it was one looking for reasons to de-risk.

Why did the market react so sharply?

On the surface, Amazon’s earnings were not alarming. Revenue beat expectations at $213.4 billion. AWS and advertising both topped forecasts. The earnings-per-share miss - $1.95 versus $1.97 expected - was trivial by historical standards.

But this earnings season is being judged differently. Investors are no longer rewarding scale alone. They want visibility on cash returns, especially as AI infrastructure bills balloon. Amazon’s free cash flow over the past 12 months fell to just $11.2 billion, despite operating cash flow rising 20% to $139.5 billion. The culprit is not weak operations, but capital intensity. AI spending is already compressing the numbers investors underwrite.

Guidance compounded the unease. First-quarter operating income is expected to come in below consensus, with management flagging roughly $1 billion in additional year-on-year costs tied to infrastructure and satellite expansion. In a market already unsettled by softening labour data - job openings at their lowest since 2020 and layoffs accelerating - Amazon’s timing could hardly have been worse.

Broader market fallout adds to the pressure

Amazon’s sell-off did not happen in isolation. While Reddit and Roblox surged on earnings beats and upbeat guidance, those moves felt like exceptions rather than the rule. The broader tone remained defensive, with investors increasingly selective about where they were willing to take risks.

Macro uncertainty is adding another layer. The nonfarm payrolls report, delayed to next week after the resolution of the US government shutdown, now looms larger than usual. Recent data has already hinted at cracks in the labour market, and any downside surprise could reinforce fears that corporate spending - including on AI - is running ahead of economic reality.

In that environment, Amazon’s decision to double down on long-term infrastructure reads less like confidence and more like defiance. The market is not questioning whether Amazon can spend. It is questioning whether this is the right cycle to ask investors to wait.

Is this a familiar Amazon playbook or something new?

Amazon has been here before. Its history is built on spending ahead of demand, absorbing scepticism, and emerging with structural advantages that competitors struggle to replicate. Prime, fulfilment automation, and AWS itself all followed that script.

AI, however, changes the scale. This time, Amazon is not alone. Microsoft and Alphabet are spending heavily, too, which compresses early-mover advantage and stretches payback timelines. The competitive moat forms more slowly when everyone is building simultaneously.

That said, Amazon is not merely a buyer in the AI ecosystem. Through Annapurna Labs, it has developed a substantial in-house chip business. Custom processors such as Trainium and Graviton now generate a combined annual revenue run rate above $10 billion, helping offset dependency on third-party suppliers and laying the groundwork for future margin expansion. That internal capability may prove critical once the spending phase peaks.

Expert outlook: Warning sign or opportunity?

This does not look like a balance-sheet warning. Amazon generated $77.7 billion in net income in 2025 and retains ample financial flexibility. The real risk is narrative drift - allowing markets to frame AI spending as unchecked ambition rather than disciplined expansion.

For short-term investors, discomfort is justified. Cash flow is under pressure, sentiment is fragile, and the macro backdrop is deteriorating. Volatility is likely to persist until the market clarifies when AI spending will moderate.

For long-term investors, the sell-off raises a different question. If AWS demand remains strong and infrastructure utilisation stays high, today’s spending could underpin years of pricing power and operating leverage. Amazon is asking the market to fund capacity now in exchange for dominance later. History suggests that trade has often worked - but it rarely feels comfortable at the time.

Key takeaway

Amazon’s massive AI spend is not a signal that the business is faltering. It is a signal that the market’s tolerance for long-dated payoffs has sharply diminished. The company is choosing to invest through a risk-off cycle, not retreat from it. Whether this proves to be a warning or a buying opportunity will hinge on execution, cash flow recovery, and how quickly AI demand translates into visible returns. The next few quarters will tell whether this sell-off reflects discipline or short-sighted fear.

Amazon technical outlook

Amazon has experienced a sharp downside move, with the price breaking lower from its recent range and falling toward the lower end of the charted structure. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly following the decline, indicating a sudden increase in volatility after a period of more contained price action. 

Momentum indicators reflect the intensity of the move: the RSI has dropped into oversold territory and is currently flat at low levels, signalling persistent downside momentum rather than an immediate stabilisation. Trend strength readings show limited directional dominance, with ADX remaining relatively subdued despite the sharp price adjustment. 

Structurally, price has moved well below prior resistance areas around $247 and $255, placing recent action in a new price range relative to the earlier range. 

Gold prices softened after US jobless claims jumped to 231,000, their highest level in nearly two months, overshooting forecasts by almost 20,000 claims. On the surface, weaker labour data was expected to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Instead, spot prices slid more than 2% on the session, highlighting a growing disconnect between economic stress signals and market positioning.

This divergence matters because labour data remains the Federal Reserve’s most sensitive policy input. With job openings falling to a five-year low and hiring still subdued, traders are now questioning whether gold is simply consolidating or misreading the next macro turn.

What’s driving Gold and US jobless claims?

The rise in initial jobless claims was sharp, but not clean. Claims jumped by 22,000 in a single week, the largest increase since early December, pushing the headline figure well above economists' expectations of 212,000, according to reports. 

Severe winter storms distorted regional employment data, leading to outsized increases in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and the Midwest. Seasonal adjustment issues around year-end hiring cycles added further noise.

Yet the broader labour picture shows genuine softening beneath the volatility. Job openings fell to 6.54 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, while November data were revised sharply downward. 

Hiring improved marginally but remained historically weak, reinforcing what economists describe as a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market. That mix suggests cooling momentum rather than outright recession - a nuance gold traders are still digesting.

Why it matters

Labour market trends directly influence rate expectations, and that connection explains gold’s muted reaction. While jobless claims surprised to the upside, continuing claims remain historically low, and the four-week average still points to stability rather than stress. 

As Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics put it, “There is no sign of the kind of layoffs we expect to see in a weakening labour market during the early days of a recession”.

For the Federal Reserve, this data does little to force an immediate policy shift. Oxford Economics’ Bernard Yaros noted that weather distortions and data discontinuities limit the signal value of a single claims report, adding that nothing has yet altered the Fed’s near-term calculus. Without a clear pivot in rate expectations, gold lacks the macro catalyst it typically feeds on.

Impact on Gold markets

Market watchers highlighted that gold’s decline following the claims data reflects positioning rather than fundamentals. Spot prices traded near session lows at $4,860 per ounce after the release, despite weaker-than-expected labour numbers. That reaction suggests traders prioritised dollar resilience and rate stability over headline economic weakness.

At the same time, falling job openings and delayed payroll data introduce uncertainty that gold markets rarely ignore for long. If upcoming employment reports confirm a broader slowdown - rather than weather-related noise - gold’s current pullback may prove temporary. The metal has historically responded more forcefully to trend confirmation than to isolated shocks, especially when monetary policy credibility is at stake.

Expert outlook

Most economists expect labour conditions to improve gradually through 2026 as interest-rate relief filters into demand, supported by recent tax cuts. That outlook caps immediate upside for gold, as it argues against aggressive Fed easing in the near term.

Still, risks are asymmetric. Job openings are falling faster than unemployment is rising, a pattern that often precedes broader labour weakness. With January’s non-farm payrolls report delayed due to the government shutdown, gold traders face a data vacuum that could amplify volatility once clarity returns. The next clean read on employment momentum may prove decisive.

Key takeaway

US jobless claims have risen sharply, but the signal remains clouded by weather effects and seasonal distortions. Gold’s pullback reflects market caution rather than a rejection of its safe-haven role. With job openings falling and payroll data delayed, the next labour release carries outsized importance. Traders should watch for confirmation, not headlines, before judging gold’s next move.

Gold technical outlook

Gold has consolidated after a sharp advance into new highs, with price now oscillating around the $4,850 area following a volatile pullback. Bollinger Bands remain widely expanded, indicating that volatility remains elevated despite the recent moderation in price movements. 

Momentum indicators show a neutralising profile: the RSI has flattened near the midline after previously reaching overbought conditions, reflecting a balance between upside and downside momentum. Trend strength has eased from extreme levels, with ADX readings lower than during the acceleration phase, suggesting a transition from strong directional movement into consolidation. 

Structurally, price remains well above earlier consolidation zones around $4,300, $4,035, and $3,935, underscoring the magnitude of the prior rally.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen roughly 40% from its October peak, rattling markets and reviving fears of another brutal crypto winter. The latest leg down included an 11% weekly loss as global markets flipped risk-off, dragging digital assets lower alongside volatile US equities. For many investors, the move feels uncomfortably familiar.

The concern centres on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which in past downturns delivered collapses of up to 80%. Yet analysts at K33 argue that today’s sell-off lacks the structural stress that defined previous crashes. With forced liquidations already flushed out and institutional buyers now entrenched, the question is no longer whether Bitcoin is falling - but whether this decline is a reset or the start of something far worse.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s latest sell-off?

Bitcoin’s decline has unfolded alongside a broader shift in global risk appetite. Equity markets have turned volatile again, with technology stocks leading losses as investors reassess growth expectations and valuation risk. Crypto, which has increasingly traded in sync with US equities, followed the same path as capital rotated toward safety.

Leverage has amplified the move. In just a few days, more than $1.7 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated across crypto markets.

Funding rates flipped sharply negative, signalling that traders rushed to exit bullish calls. Historically, such conditions appear during periods of stress, but they also tend to surface after excessive optimism has already been wrung out of the market.

Why it matters

For newer investors, sharp drawdowns often trigger panic selling. Bitcoin’s past cycle crashes trained the market to expect catastrophic declines once momentum breaks. That behavioural memory alone can deepen sell-offs, even when underlying conditions differ.

K33’s analysts argue that this cycle lacks the forced sellers that defined 2018 and 2022. Those bear markets were driven by cascading failures - from Terra-Luna to FTX - that triggered margin calls and indiscriminate liquidation. “The structure that produced 80% crashes simply isn’t present today,” the firm noted in its latest report.

Impact on crypto markets and equities

The sell-off has spilled well beyond Bitcoin itself. Crypto-linked equities have suffered steep losses as investors reassessed exposure across the ecosystem. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, fell more than 5% in a single session and is now down nearly 70% over six months.

Mining stocks were hit even harder. Companies that pivoted toward high-performance computing and AI infrastructure failed to escape the downturn. HUT 8 fell 8%, Core Scientific nearly 9%, and IREN plunged 17%. As Aurelie Barthere of Nansen observed, “The correlation between crypto and US equities is turning positive again as they sell off simultaneously,” reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro volatility.

Expert outlook

K33 identifies $74,000 as a key support zone. A clean break below it could open the door to a retest of the 2021 peak near $69,000, or even the long-term average around $58,000. While those levels appear daunting, analysts note that Bitcoin has already absorbed heavy liquidation pressure without systemic stress.

The presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs has quietly reshaped market dynamics. Pension funds and long-term allocators now account for a growing share of demand, dampening the reflexive selling seen in past cycles. The near-term path may remain volatile, but analysts increasingly frame this drawdown as a structural correction rather than a cycle-ending collapse.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s 40% decline has revived memories of past cycle crashes, but the market structure has changed meaningfully. Forced sellers are largely absent, leverage has already been flushed, and institutional demand is now embedded through ETFs. Volatility may persist, yet analysts increasingly view this drawdown as a reset rather than a collapse. The next signals to watch are ETF flows, equity market stability, and whether key support zones hold.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin has extended its decline, moving further toward the lower end of its recent price range after breaking down from a prolonged consolidation. Price is trading below the lower Bollinger Band, while the bands remain widely expanded, reflecting elevated volatility and strong directional pressure following the recent acceleration lower. Momentum indicators show extreme conditions, with the RSI dropping sharply into oversold territory, signalling a rapid deterioration in short-term momentum rather than a gradual weakening. 

Trend strength remains elevated, as indicated by high ADX readings, highlighting an active and mature trend environment despite the recent shift in direction. Structurally, price is now positioned well below the former consolidation area around $90,000, with earlier resistance zones near $107,000 and $114,000 far above current levels.

The short answer is yes - but not without strain. The S&P 500 is still holding near record levels, yet beneath the surface, market liquidity is tightening in ways that historically make equity rallies harder to sustain. 

On Wednesday alone, the benchmark index slipped just 0.5%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped almost 0.9%, a divergence that pushed market dispersion close to the upper end of its historical range.

This matters because liquidity, not earnings, is increasingly setting the tone. With earnings season fading, long-dated bond yields hovering near resistance, and the US Treasury preparing to drain cash from the system, the market’s ability to absorb tighter financial conditions will define the next phase of the S&P 500’s trajectory.

What’s driving the S&P 500 outlook?

Recent price action shows a market being pulled in two directions at once. Mega-cap technology stocks have weighed on the headline S&P 500, while smaller constituents and defensive sectors have quietly advanced. 

The result has been a sharp rise in dispersion, with the dispersion index climbing to around 37.6, a level more commonly associated with peak earnings volatility rather than the end of the reporting season.

One explanation lies in positioning rather than conviction. Implied volatility has been rising more aggressively than in previous quarters, encouraging traders to lean into stable earnings profiles such as consumer staples. Walmart’s continued strength, despite not reporting earnings until mid-February, reflects this behaviour. Rather than a clean sector rotation, the move resembles the same dispersion trades that dominated markets ahead of major technology earnings.

Bond markets are reinforcing this uneasy backdrop. The US 30-year Treasury yield edged back toward 4.9%, once again testing the upper boundary that has capped yields for weeks. 

Under normal circumstances, heavy issuance, persistent deficits, and resilient growth would have pushed yields decisively higher. Instead, rates appear frozen, suggesting that liquidity constraints - not optimism - are anchoring markets in place.

Why it matters

For investors, this divergence is a warning sign. When the S&P 500’s surface stability masks internal stress, markets become more vulnerable to abrupt repricing. Equal-weight strength alongside cap-weighted weakness suggests selective risk reduction rather than broad confidence in future growth.

Liquidity dynamics amplify this risk. The US Treasury has signalled that the Treasury General Account could exceed $1 trillion around tax season, implying roughly $150 billion in additional cash being pulled from markets. 

While increased Treasury bill issuance may soften the impact, analysts broadly agree it will not fully offset the drain. As Sonali Basak of iCapital noted, markets are not pricing in a shock, but “liquidity is no longer providing the same support it did last year”.

Impact on markets and investors

The most immediate effect has been aggressive sector rotation. Technology, particularly software, bore the brunt of Wednesday’s sell-off as concerns over AI disruption and stretched valuations prompted investors to cut exposure. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%, underscoring how uneven leadership has become.

At the same time, the longer-term AI narrative remains intact. Alphabet’s earnings highlighted plans to lift capital expenditure to as much as $185 billion by 2026, boosting Nvidia and Broadcom even as Alphabet shares slipped. The market response suggests investors are reassessing near-term pricing rather than abandoning the AI theme outright 

For longer-term investors, the risk lies in complacency. If liquidity continues to tighten while rates remain pinned near resistance, volatility could return abruptly once correlations rise and dispersion trades unwind.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, many strategists expect market dispersion to fade as earnings season ends and tactical positions are unwound. Historically, correlations rise once earnings uncertainty passes, pulling sector performance back into alignment. That process alone could increase volatility, even without a macro shock.

The bigger unknown is liquidity. Weekly jobless claims, Amazon’s earnings, and updates on Treasury funding will be closely watched. A sustained break above 5% in the 30-year yield would likely pressure equity valuations, while continued rate stagnation may signal deeper stress in funding markets. For now, the S&P 500 can absorb tighter liquidity - but only while confidence holds.

Key takeaway

The S&P 500 can withstand tighter liquidity for now, but the margin for safety is shrinking. Divergence within the index, stubborn bond yields, and looming cash drains suggest stability may prove deceptive. As earnings fade from focus, liquidity will take centre stage. The next decisive move will likely come not from profits, but from funding conditions.