The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%–3.75% and signalling a slower, more uncertain path ahead. Markets responded in sharply contrasting ways. Bitcoin plunged more than $2,000 in 24 hours before rebounding, while gold surged toward $4,235 and equities rallied. With official data still patchy after the six-week government shutdown, the Fed is navigating a delicate moment marked by inflation at 3% and a deeply divided committee.

These cross-asset swings matter because they reveal how sensitive investors have become to even minor shifts in Fed signalling. With Powell insisting the bank is “well positioned to wait and see,” the focus now shifts to how this cut shapes expectations well into 2026.

What’s driving the Fed’s hawkish cut

The Fed opted for a 25-bps reduction - below the 50-bps some traders had hoped for - reflecting an attempt to maintain optionality while inflation remains stubborn. Polymarket odds approached 99% for a cut hours before the announcement, yet the lighter move triggered immediate volatility. Bitcoin slid $500 within minutes of the decision before stabilising. Crypto markets are especially reactive, though some analysts argue that “speculative excess has been flushed out,” citing a systemic leverage ratio down to 4–5% from 10% in the summer.

Politics also looms large. Jerome Powell has only three meetings left before President Trump appoints a new chair, likely someone favouring lower rates. Prediction markets, according to Kaishi, give Kevin Hassett a 72% chance. This dynamic forces policymakers to balance economic judgment with heightened political scrutiny, complicating how they frame future guidance.

Why it matters

A rare 9–3 split exposed deep fissures within the FOMC. Governor Stephen Miran wanted a larger half-point cut, while Jeffrey Schmid and Austan Goolsbee voted to hold rates steady. Such mixed dissents - from both hawks and doves - signal a committee struggling to find common ground. Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, described the statement’s tone as “leaning dovish,” a relief for traders who feared a hawkish message with no promise of further easing.

The tension is spilling into markets. Bitcoin’s swings reflect the mismatch between investor optimism and Fed caution. Gold’s surge demonstrates how traders tend to lean into havens when policy direction is uncertain. 

At the same time, official projections still foresee only one cut in 2026, unchanged from September, despite markets continuing to price two. This divergence makes every future Fed communication a potential source of volatility.

Impact on markets, businesses, and consumers

Crypto markets bore the brunt of the reaction. Bitcoin’s $2,000 slide over 24 hours reflects not just rate expectations but broader fragility in sentiment. Yet Coinbase’s stabilising leverage ratio suggests that the market’s structure is healthier now than during the summer’s speculative peaks. Volatility may remain elevated as traders digest the Fed’s slower pace of easing.

Gold extended its rally to the $4,230 region before a slight pullback, as lower yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 80% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady in January, up from 70% prior to the announcement. 

Bart Melek of TD Securities said the Fed’s upcoming $40 billion monthly T-bill purchases resemble “mini-quantitative easing,” supporting gold into early 2026. Silver surged to a record $61.8671 amid lingering supply tightness, more than doubling this year and outpacing gold’s 59% rise.

FX markets absorbed both sides of the Atlantic. EUR/USD steadied as traders processed the Fed split and Lagarde’s optimistic tone. A stronger euro often emerges when investors expect the ECB to pause cuts sooner, and the implication that eurozone growth will outperform earlier forecasts reinforces this shift. If the ECB faces less pressure to ease further, USD strength may continue to soften - especially in a scenario where the incoming Fed chair proves more dovish.

Geopolitics added another layer. Reports suggest President Trump has given Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky a Christmas deadline to accept a peace framework with Russia. Any progress could dampen safe-haven demand, though for now, the combination of liquidity support and policy uncertainty keeps bullion elevated.

For households and businesses, the message is mixed. Rates may stay lower for longer, but borrowing costs - mortgages, loans, credit cards - remain high relative to pre-inflation norms. Announced layoffs exceeding 1.1 million this year hint at softening labour conditions despite limited official data.

Expert outlook

Powell emphasised that the Fed needs time to assess how the three 2025 cuts filter through the economy. While GDP growth for 2026 was upgraded to 2.3%, inflation is not projected to return to target until 2028. Markets still expect two cuts in 2026, with the next priced for June, putting investor expectations and Fed messaging on divergent paths.

The January meeting won’t necessarily shift policy, but it will be critical for resetting communication. Traders will watch how Powell interprets incoming labour and inflation data, how liquidity injections unfold, and whether uncertainty around the incoming Fed chair reshapes expectations. Until then, volatility across crypto, commodities, and bonds is likely to remain elevated.

Key takeaway

The Fed’s 25 bps cut may look straightforward, but its implications are anything but. A divided committee, persistent inflation, political pressure, and delayed data have created fertile ground for volatility. Bitcoin’s severe swings, gold’s surge, and shifting rate expectations all reflect a market recalibrating to a slower and more uncertain easing cycle. The January meeting will offer the next crucial clues on whether the Fed stays cautious or feels compelled to shift course.

Gold and silver technical insights

Gold is trading just below the US$4,240 resistance zone, where recent candles show hesitation and mild profit-taking. The Bollinger Bands have tightened, signalling a volatility squeeze that typically precedes a decisive breakout. The price is holding above the US$4,190 support, but a close below this level could trigger liquidation-driven selling towards US$4,035. Meanwhile, the RSI sits gently above the midline, indicating a slight bullish bias without overbought pressure. A break above US$4,240 opens the door to US$4,365, while failure to hold US$4,190 risks a deeper corrective move.

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Analysts are cutting their Bitcoin targets because the forces that once pushed the cryptocurrency towards ever-higher projections have lost momentum. ETF inflows, which were expected to form the backbone of the next bull market cycle, have slowed to their weakest level since their launch, while corporate treasury buyers, such as MicroStrategy, have stepped back from aggressive accumulation. 

Standard Chartered, which once predicted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by year-end, now expects only $100,000 and has halved its forecasts for the second half of the decade.

According to reports, the reassessment comes as Bitcoin holds just above $91,000 after a 30% slide from its October peak. With liquidity thinning and macro uncertainty rising ahead of a widely expected December rate cut, traders are looking to the Federal Reserve for the next decisive signal. Whether this moment marks a pause or a lasting repricing will shape Bitcoin’s outlook well into the 2030s.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s repricing? 

Data revealed Bitcoin’s narrow trading band between $91,000 and $94,000 reflects a market caught between fragile confidence and diminishing structural demand. The dip to a seven-month low of $82,221 in mid-November underscored its vulnerability to tightening liquidity and reduced risk appetite. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were meant to be a steady source of inflows throughout 2025, have gathered only around 50,000 BTC this quarter - the softest intake since they launched. That slowdown has forced analysts to reconsider the assumption that ETFs would consistently and predictably absorb supply.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick described the downgrade as a “recalibration of demand expectations”, pointing to the fading role of corporate treasury buyers. The large digital-asset treasuries, or DATs, that turbocharged earlier bull cycles “have run their course”, in his view, as valuations and balance-sheet conditions no longer justify repeated accumulation. 

Without that second leg of institutional buying, the burden falls almost entirely on ETF participation, making Bitcoin more sensitive to short-term investor flows and broader market sentiment. Bernstein’s revised projections follow the same logic: the long-term story remains intact, but the timeline has stretched as adoption flattens.

Why it matters

Experts expressed that forecast changes are not merely academic. They challenge the notion that Bitcoin’s price path can be predicted solely through halving cycles or historical patterns. A 30% retreat from the October high above $126,000 has already tested the belief that supply-driven rallies are inevitable. 

Market watchers anticipate that if institutional capital becomes sporadic rather than structural, Bitcoin’s trajectory becomes increasingly dependent on liquidity conditions, policy expectations, and the broader economic cycle. Kendrick’s view that “crypto winters are a thing of the past” raises an intriguing paradox: Bitcoin may avoid deep collapses, yet also struggle to reclaim parabolic momentum without fresh sources of demand.

The political environment adds another layer of uncertainty. Markets are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but attention is fixed on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about the path for 2026. 

Speculation that Kevin Hassett could eventually lead the Fed has intensified debate over whether future policy may tilt towards more aggressive easing. For Bitcoin, which increasingly behaves as a high-beta liquidity asset, shifts in the policy outlook may matter more than long-held narratives about supply dynamics or institutional adoption.

Impact on markets and investors

The cooling of enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin has spilled over into the broader cryptocurrency market. Spot ETFs recorded $60 million in net outflows on Monday, marking a reversal from the persistent inflows seen earlier this year. 

Institutional desks that once treated dips as buying opportunities are now treading cautiously, wary of committing capital before the Fed clarifies its stance. Lower liquidity has kept volatility subdued, masking the fragility of market depth that has emerged in recent weeks.

This quieter landscape has changed how traders interpret key price levels. Analysts at Delta Exchange believe a clean break above $94,000 would confirm a bullish continuation, yet the absence of strong order-book support suggests investors are unwilling to force directional moves. 

Ethereum’s relative strength heading into the FOMC meeting shows selective risk appetite rather than a broad revival of confidence. The message across markets is consistent: positioning is defensive, not pessimistic, but conviction will not return without clearer macro guidance.

Expert outlook

Even with forecasts being revised downward, analysts still expect Bitcoin to rise over the next five years, albeit at a more moderate pace. Standard Chartered now places its 2026 target at $150,000, down from $300,000, and pushes its $500,000 milestone from 2028 to 2030. Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will reach around $150,000 next year and approach $200,000 by 2027, reinforcing expectations of slower, steadier growth rather than explosive cycles. These projections highlight a market that is maturing: one driven by professional capital, regulated flows, and macro dynamics rather than retail frenzy.

The biggest unknown remains U.S. monetary policy. A dovish signal on Wednesday could restore liquidity and revive ETF participation; a cautious or hawkish tone may prolong the consolidation phase into early 2026. Traders will scrutinise Powell’s language for hints about the January meeting and the broader strategy for the year ahead. In a market that now trades on nuance as much as narrative, these cues could shift sentiment more dramatically than the rate cut itself.

Key takeaway

Analysts are slashing Bitcoin targets because the market’s most powerful demand drivers have weakened simultaneously. ETF inflows have cooled, corporate treasury buyers have stepped back, and macro policy uncertainty has grown ahead of the Fed’s December decision. Despite this, long-term expectations remain positive, though stretched over a longer horizon. The next major signal will come from Powell’s guidance, which is likely to define whether Bitcoin resumes its climb towards six-figure territory or extends its consolidation into 2026.

Bitcoin technical insights

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $92,680, holding its recovery after bouncing from the $84,700 support zone - an area where deeper declines would likely have triggered forced liquidations across leveraged positions. The price is now leaning into the $94,600 resistance level, with higher ceilings at $106,600 and $114,000, where traders often reassess risk exposure or prepare for renewed buying if momentum strengthens. 

BTC remains in the upper half of its Bollinger Band range, a sign of improving sentiment but also a reminder that the market is pausing as candles press into resistance. Buyers have regained some control, yet the broader structure still appears range-bound until a decisive close above $94,600 confirms a shift in trend. This is typically where tools like the Deriv Trading Calculator become useful, helping traders estimate potential position sizes, margin requirements, or risk levels before committing to breakout setups.

The RSI, climbing rapidly above the midline towards the 55-60 region, reinforces that momentum is tilting in favour of buyers. While still comfortably below overbought territory, the indicator reflects growing bullish pressure - a constructive backdrop if BTC can break through $94,600 and build a stronger recovery leg. A sustained move above that threshold would signal that the market is ready to retest deeper resistance levels and potentially reshape sentiment heading into the next macro catalyst.

According to analysts, silver’s surge can continue, but only if the Federal Reserve delivers the rate cut markets expect this week. The metal’s climb to around $60.79 an ounce reflects traders pricing in an 87% probability of a quarter-point reduction, and several commodity strategists argue that further easing would keep silver supported in the near term. Others caution that the rally may fade quickly if the Fed signals a slower path of cuts, making the current level vulnerable to a pullback.

Their split views frame the central question ahead of the meeting: is silver’s momentum genuine or merely a product of aggressive positioning? Years of supply tightness and tariff concerns strengthen the bullish camp, while October’s liquidity shock underscores how fragile the market can become under stress. Analysts agree on one point - the Fed’s tone this week is likely to decide whether silver extends its breakout or stalls beneath recent highs.

What’s driving silver’s rise?

The core engine of silver’s advance is the firm belief that the Federal Reserve will extend its easing cycle. Traders are pricing in an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut, taking rates towards 3.5%–3.75%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. 

A softer dollar - already 8.5% lower this year - has strengthened the appeal of non-yielding assets. Rhona O’Connell of StoneX summed up the sentiment by saying traders “were definitely looking for cuts,” helping to pull forward positioning even before the meeting concluded.

But macro policy is only part of the story. Silver’s physical market has spent months in a state of dislocation. London inventories were squeezed so tightly in October that one major investment chief described conditions as “entirely unprecedented”, with “no liquidity available” as surging Indian demand and ETF inflows drained supplies.

Stocks have recovered slightly, with London’s free-floating inventories reaching around 202 million ounces in November, yet the improvement is uneven. Chinese inventories remain at decade lows, while the United States has amassed an oversized Comex stockpile of 456 million ounces due to tariff concerns after silver’s addition to the US critical minerals list.

Why it matters

According to analysts, this rally represents more than speculative enthusiasm; it highlights the fragility of the silver market, which has become evident after years of underinvestment. Because silver is primarily a by-product of other metals, miners cannot quickly scale production even when prices surge. 

Helen Amos at BMO warned that “regional tightness” is likely to persist, pointing to chronic deficits that have accumulated over the past five years. Shortfalls are no longer isolated events - they are structural.

For investors, the divergence between gold and silver adds another layer of complexity. Gold has risen by about 60% this year, supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows. However, analysts at BMI warn that any hint of a pause in Fed cuts may push gold back below $4,000. Silver, meanwhile, offers sharper upside but carries more volatility. As Goldman Sachs noted earlier in the year, silver still faces “more downside price risk” than gold due to its thinner market and heavier industrial footprint.

Impact on markets and industry

Manufacturers are already confronting the consequences of a metal that behaves more like a risk asset than a stable industrial input. Silver demand from the solar and electronics sectors continues to rise, meaning that price swings directly impact planning costs. Volatility complicates procurement, especially in solar production, where long-term commitments collide with fluctuating spot markets. Some producers are hedging more aggressively; others are absorbing higher costs until the market stabilises.

Financial markets are adjusting too. October’s freeze in the over-the-counter market - where buyers and sellers struggled to transact - sent a warning about liquidity risk. Dan Ghali at TD Securities said the tightness reflected “frictions to arbitrage”, made worse by tariff uncertainty and uneven regional stocks. The episode amplified intraday price swings and left traders acutely aware of how thin conditions can become when sentiment shifts.

As retail investors pile in, particularly in North America, where silver is marketed as the “poor man’s gold”, the market’s personality becomes even harder to read. Retail participation tends to amplify momentum in both directions, raising the stakes for what happens after the Fed decision.

Expert outlook

Analysts are split on whether silver’s surge marks the start of a sustained trend or the peak of a stretched market. Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper maintains a constructive view, noting that prices could remain elevated while the physical market is tight. Yet she warns that volatility is here to stay, especially as traders focus on the US Section 232 review, which could introduce tariffs and deepen regional imbalances.

Forecasts range from silver extending its climb well beyond $61 to a pullback if the Fed softens its easing guidance. Some expect a continuation of the rally if the dollar weakens further, while others highlight the risk that even a modestly hawkish tone could trigger a rapid unwind of leveraged positions. The next phase hinges on three signals: the Fed’s forward guidance, the release of the critical minerals review, and fresh data on Chinese and London stock levels. Each carries the potential to reshape market sentiment within hours.

Key takeaway

Silver’s surge above $60 is the product of a rare convergence of monetary easing, structural shortages, and tariff uncertainty. The rally reflects genuine supply stress, but also a market prone to sudden air pockets when liquidity thins. With the Federal Reserve set to deliver its next rate decision, the stakes are high: the outcome could extend silver’s breakout or mark the moment momentum finally cools. The signals to watch next are the Fed’s guidance, the US minerals review, and fresh stock data from China and London.

Silver technical insights

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $61.32, extending a strong upward rally and now sitting well above the key $57.00 support level. A pullback toward this zone could trigger sell liquidations, while deeper declines toward $49.40 or $47.00 would suggest a broader reversal. For now, silver remains firmly bullish, riding the upper region of its Bollinger Band structure as momentum continues to build. 

Price action continues to print higher highs and higher lows, signalling strong buyer control. Even so, recent candles are beginning to show minor hesitation near the current highs, hinting that the market may soon test buyer conviction after such a rapid climb. With volatility elevated and intraday ranges expanding, many traders are turning to tools such as the Deriv Trading Calculator to model their position size and potential exposure before engaging with these sharp swings.

The RSI, now around 76, is rising sharply within overbought territory, reflecting strong bullish momentum but also signalling that the market may be stretched in the short term. While the broader trend remains upward, silver could be vulnerable to a cooling-off phase unless bulls maintain pressure above current levels. A brief consolidation would not break the uptrend, but it would help reset momentum indicators and offer clearer entry signals for trend followers monitoring XAG/USD on Deriv MT5.

USD/JPY is trading firmly above 156 after Japan’s powerful 7.6-magnitude earthquake weakened the Yen and intensified speculation about the Bank of Japan’s next move. The disaster hit an economy already contracting at a 2.3% annual rate, while wage growth of 2.6% in October had previously strengthened expectations of a December rate hike. Markets now face a more uncertain policy landscape as Japan assesses the damage.

The key question is whether this combination of Yen softness and a potentially hawkish 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve will propel the pair through the 157 threshold. With the Fed preparing its final decision of the year and Japan contending with an unexpected economic shock, traders are positioning for what could be the next decisive leg in the USD/JPY trend.

What’s driving USD/JPY higher?

The Yen’s decline reflects structural fragility colliding with a sudden natural disaster. Monday’s quake triggered widespread tsunami warnings from Hokkaido to Chiba and forced about 90,000 residents to evacuate. 

Investors immediately reduced Yen exposure, anticipating economic strain and disrupted activity at a time when Japan’s GDP has already been revised to a sharp 2.3% annualised contraction. Although rising wages had supported hopes for a December BoJ hike, the quake has forced traders to recalculate the likelihood of near-term tightening.

The US dollar, meanwhile, benefits from expectations of a “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve. Analysts assign a 89.6% probability of a 25-bp reduction this week, yet inflation remains around 3% year-on-year above target. 

This sets the stage for a rate cut accompanied by firmer language. The widening yield differential has strengthened the dollar’s appeal, helping lift USD/JPY convincingly through 156 and leaving 157 as the next technical barrier.

Why it matters

FX markets often treat USD/JPY as a stress gauge, and its latest move reflects a convergence of economic uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. The quake complicates Japan’s policy path, raising doubts about whether the BoJ can proceed with tightening just as reconstruction efforts and economic stabilisation become priorities. This tension sits uncomfortably against the backdrop of still-elevated JGB yields, which had previously signalled confidence in a December hike.

According to a Tokyo-based strategist, “the BoJ’s room for manoeuvre has narrowed at the worst possible moment,” capturing a sentiment that now shapes market pricing. Investors must weigh the risk of a delayed hike against the possibility that the BoJ presses ahead to preserve credibility. Either outcome carries consequences for carry trades, hedging decisions and broader market sentiment, which is why USD/JPY’s move has drawn global attention.

Impact on markets and investors

With the pair now above 156, some traders have renewed long positioning in anticipation of further gains, according to analysts. Rising US yields and uncertainty around the BoJ’s next step have reinforced the dollar’s advantage. 

Historical comparisons to the 1995 Hanshin earthquake, when policymakers maintained accommodative conditions for months, have resurfaced, fueling expectations that the central bank may avoid tightening during a period of recovery.

Derivatives markets reflect a similar outlook. Demand has increased for USD/JPY call options with strikes at 156.50, 157.00 and above, as traders seek exposure to the next potential breakout. Volatility is rising ahead of the Fed decision, prompting more participants to adopt long straddles that profit from large directional moves. Defined-risk structures such as bull call spreads remain attractive for investors seeking controlled leverage in an environment where policy signals can shift quickly.

Expert outlook

Whether USD/JPY can breach 157 depends on how the two central banks interpret risk in the days ahead. A cautious BoJ that delays its planned hike could send the pair higher, especially if the Fed confirms that rate cuts next year will be gradual. But a decisive inflation-fighting message from the BoJ or a surprisingly dovish tone from the Fed could pause the rally.

The next catalysts arrive imminently. US ADP and JOLTS readings will help clarify the labour-market slowdown, while Japan’s evolving post-quake assessments may alter expectations for monetary normalisation. With both economies nearing pivotal announcements, the backdrop is set for volatility. Markets now watch not only whether USD/JPY can reach 157, but whether a sustained breakout is justified by policy and economic reality.

Key takeaway

USD/JPY has pushed above 156 and now approaches a critical test at 157 as traders weigh Japan’s post-quake uncertainty against a cautious Federal Reserve. The yield differential continues to favour the dollar, but the BoJ’s response to the crisis remains the biggest wildcard. Volatility is expected to rise as crucial US data and central-bank decisions converge, making the next movements in the pair highly event-driven.

USD/JPY technical insights

At the start of writing, USD/JPY is trading near 156.15, attempting to build momentum after bouncing from recent lows. The pair is now edging toward the 157.40 resistance level, where traders often expect profit-taking or fresh bullish interest if price breaks higher. On the downside, the nearest supports sit at 155.10, 153.55, and 151.76 - with a break below any of these levels likely to trigger sell liquidations and deepen the pullback.

Price action is improving, with USD/JPY moving back toward the upper Bollinger Band after a short consolidation period. This suggests buyers are regaining control, although the pair still needs a clean break above resistance to confirm a continuation of the broader uptrend.

The RSI, now rising sharply above 65, highlights strengthening bullish momentum. While not yet overbought, the indicator signals increasing buying pressure - a favourable setup for further upside if the pair can overcome the 157.40 barrier.

Is Nvidia’s slide a warning shot or the kind of pullback long-term investors dream about? Reports showed, the stock has retreated after a blistering run, even as the company remains valued at roughly $4.6 trillion and continues to push quarterly revenue beyond $55 billion. That disconnect between share price and business performance is at the heart of today’s debate.

Beneath the volatility, Nvidia’s margins remain above 50%, revenue guidance points to higher growth, and fresh policy shifts on H200 exports to China could reopen a lucrative channel for expansion. The real question now is whether markets are overpricing the risks and underpricing the durability of Nvidia’s AI dominance - and that’s where this story begins.

What’s driving Nvidia’s moment?

Nvidia’s latest pullback has been fuelled by a sharp reset in expectations around competition and policy. According to reports, investors are no longer just concerned about AMD; they are also weighing the implications of what would happen if Google were to start selling its internally developed AI chips at scale to outside clients, such as Meta. 

OpenAI’s deepening partnership with Broadcom, now worth more than $1.7 trillion, adds another heavyweight rival into the mix. At the same time, Chinese players like Alibaba, SMOC and Moore Threads - the latter jumping more than 500% on its market debut - underline how quickly alternative ecosystems can form.

Yet history suggests Nvidia tends to grow through competition rather than be derailed by it. Revenue has accelerated even as rivals launched credible GPUs, and management expects fourth-quarter revenue to climb towards $65 billion on the back of sustained demand for AI infrastructure. 

Concerns about “circular” AI funding - where Nvidia backs start-ups that then buy its chips - sound alarming, but ignore the reinforcing effect of a broad ecosystem built around CUDA, networking hardware and software tools. Many expressed Nvidia’s moat is not just silicon; it is a full stack that keeps developers and data centres anchored to its platform.

Why it matters

The valuation question around Nvidia is, at its core, a debate about the shape of the AI cycle. On headline numbers, the stock does not appear as stretched as its critics suggest: a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 29.94 compares with a five-year average of nearly 45, while a forward PEG ratio of close to 1.0 sits well below the sector median of around 1.7. 

Watchers noted that implies the market is paying less per unit of growth than it has in the past, despite revenue and profit momentum running at historic levels. As one analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics argued, recent US policy shifts reflect “market realities”, with Washington now more focused on competing for AI market share than simply slowing China’s progress.

Politics, however, is shaping the risk premium investors demand. President Donald Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to export H200 chips to “approved customers” in China has split Washington. Nvidia hailed the policy as a balanced approach that protects high-value US jobs and manufacturing, but senior Democrats branded it a “colossal economic and national security failure”, warning that more powerful chips could supercharge Chinese military and surveillance capabilities. 

That clash matters because it reveals how quickly export rules could swing again - a reminder that Nvidia’s earnings outlook is tied to the US–China technology strategy, not just to quarterly demand from cloud providers.

Impact on markets, industry and consumers

According to analysts, the reopening of China, even in a limited way, could be economically significant for Nvidia. The H200 is far more capable than the H20 chip, which was tailored for the Chinese market under earlier Biden-era controls, with think-tank estimates suggesting it delivers several times the performance of the H20 in key AI workloads. 

If Chinese firms are allowed - and willing - to buy at scale, Nvidia could unlock billions in pent-up demand from cloud services, internet platforms and AI start-ups waiting for clarity. But Beijing’s desire to reduce dependence on US technology and its encouragement of domestic alternatives mean demand may return in bursts rather than a clean ramp.

For global markets, the decision could signal a shift from blunt export denial to managed competition. Former US officials warn that giving Chinese firms easier access to higher-end chips risks narrowing America’s lead in frontier AI models and enabling Chinese cloud providers to build “good enough” data centres across emerging markets.

 That could compress the long-term margins of US tech champions, but, paradoxically, it also reinforces demand for Nvidia’s hardware in the medium term as more regions race to build AI capacity. According to analysts, Nvidia may see stronger near-term revenues even as the strategic landscape becomes more contested.

For end-users and enterprise customers, Nvidia’s continued dominance still shapes pricing and access to computing power. Its net profit margin of about 53% surpasses AMD’s 10% and Micron’s 23%, and its Rule of 40 score above 100% - combining rapid revenue growth with high profitability - is rare even among leading software companies. 

Strategic moves, such as a $2 billion investment in Synopsys, alongside positions in AI infrastructure and cloud-linked firms, deepen Nvidia’s grip on the tools used to design and deploy next-generation chips. Even with selective institutional selling, such as Rothschild Investment LLC trimming holdings by 3.5%, the broader flow of capital continues to favour Nvidia’s leadership.

Expert outlook

Where does that leave investors asking whether the pullback is an opportunity or the start of a structural fade? Many analysts still view Nvidia as the backbone of global AI infrastructure for the remainder of the decade, citing its hardware performance, software lock-in, and the pace of its product roadmap. 

Jensen Huang’s commitment to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in US-based AI infrastructure reinforces the idea that Nvidia is not merely selling chips but building the physical layer of a new computing era. Should China ultimately approve H200 imports at scale, consensus earnings may prove too conservative again.

The uncertainties lie not in the technology but in politics and competition, experts added. In Washington, cross-party concern about empowering China’s AI capabilities could harden into new legal barriers if the current deal is perceived to backfire, while Beijing may continue encouraging its tech giants to favour domestic chips even when US technology becomes available. Meanwhile, Google, AMD, Broadcom and a growing cohort of Chinese firms are racing to erode Nvidia’s lead. For now, Nvidia’s scale, margins and ecosystem breadth mean the recent slide looks more like a repricing of fear than a verdict on the company’s future.

Key takeaway

Nvidia’s pullback looks less like a reflection of fading fundamentals and more like a recalibration of geopolitical noise, competitive pressure and market expectations. The company continues to deliver exceptional growth, high margins and a software-anchored ecosystem that competitors still struggle to replicate. New export rules add volatility but may also unlock renewed demand, even as they intensify the global AI race. For now, the evidence points to a mispriced slide - with the next decisive signals likely to come from Washington, Beijing and Nvidia’s ability to clear near-term technical resistance.

Technical insights

Nvidia is trading around $189.65, extending its rebound after breaking above the short-term range. Price is now edging closer to the $196.00 resistance level, with a heavier barrier at $207.40 where traders often anticipate profit-taking or fresh buying momentum. The downside structure remains important: support at $182.00 and $175.00 now act as critical fail-safes. A break beneath either level could invite forced liquidations and deepen the correction.

Recent movement shows Nvidia drifting back towards the upper half of its Bollinger Band range, a sign that bullish sentiment is reasserting itself after weeks of consolidation. Strong upward candles suggest buyers are regaining control, while the RSI, now climbing above the midline towards 60, confirms strengthening momentum. The indicator remains below overbought territory, leaving room for continued upside - provided the price can clear the nearby resistance zone at $196 with conviction.

Disclaimer: Trading hours listed on this blog are for reference only and may differ due to last-minute changes.

As 2025 winds down, it’s hard not to feel that familiar December shift. Markets start to exhale. Traders wrap up their books. Volume thins out. And yet-if you’ve been around long enough, you know the quiet can sometimes create its own fireworks. Low liquidity, combined with year-end positioning, often results in unexpected swings, particularly in forex, commodities, and indices.

The holiday season brings its own rhythm to the markets, and knowing when things are open, closed, or moving a little differently can make all the difference. Whether you’re trading full-time or simply keeping an eye on the screens between festive plans, here’s everything you need to know about market behaviour, trading sessions, and what to expect as we wrap up 2025.

A quick look at holiday market behaviour

Not all markets slow down in December. Some barely sleep. Others follow strict regional exchange calendars. Here’s the lay of the land:

Where to find the full 2025 trading schedule

Instead of stacking pages of trading hours into this blog, we’ve compiled the full holiday trading timetable-including early closes, full closures, late opens, and platform-specific sessions-into a single document.

Holiday highlights by market

Here’s a trader-friendly breakdown of the key things to know before stepping into the final stretch of 2025.

Synthetic Indices

On Deriv, synthetic indices are available for 24/7 trading, including during holiday seasons and on public holidays.

They don’t follow exchange calendars, so while other markets might pause, synthetics keep ticking-ideal if you still want volatility when traditional assets go quiet.

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto doesn’t care about the calendar-and for the most part, neither does crypto trading on Deriv.

On Deriv Trader and Deriv GO, cryptocurrencies are available 24/7, including over the holidays. On CFD platforms, trading is almost continuous, with a small daily break in the schedule for maintenance.

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Holiday liquidity may dip, but volatility? That rarely takes a day off.

Basket Indices

Basket indices give you exposure to groups of currencies or metals in a single trade and mostly run on familiar weekday hours, with a few key holiday exceptions.

Gold Basket has early closes and full closures around Christmas and New Year, while the AUD, EUR, GBP, and USD baskets keep near-regular hours but are closed on the main holiday dates.

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Tactical Indices (RSI Metals & Forex RSI)

Our RSI-based tactical indices for metals and forex pairs follow regular weekday schedules but observe strict closures on major holidays.

Silver RSI indices close early on Christmas Eve and are shut on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day, while Gold and Forex RSI indices also close on the core holiday dates.

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Forex

Forex remains one of the most liquid markets globally, trading 24 hours a day, five days a week. That continues into the holiday period-but with a few calendar caveats.

All forex pairs close on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. CFD forex pairs also feature early closes at the end of December, and Zero Spread accounts follow their own refined schedule.

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Expect quieter markets overall, with the potential for sudden moves when liquidity thins out.

Stock Indices

Stock Indices follow the underlying exchange calendars, so their holiday schedules vary by region.

US indices like US SP 500, US Tech 100, Wall Street 30, US Small Cap 2000, and US Mid Cap 400 trade on regular days, with early closes on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, and full closures on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.

Asian and European indices have their own combinations of early closes and multi-day breaks, especially between 24–26 December and on 1 January.

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All Zero Spread Account symbols under Stock Indices follow uniform trading hours, which differ from the regular account trading hours:

(Sun)

• ‍23:20:00 GMT - 24:00:00 GMT

(Mon - Thu)

• 00:00:00 GMT - 21:50:00 GMT
• 23:10:00 GMT - 24:00:00 GMT

(Fri)‍

• 00:00:00 GMT - 21:40:00 GMT

Because these are tightly linked to local exchanges, this is one of the key areas where traders should cross-check the PDF for exact timings.

Indices (VIX & DXY)

Two popular macro indicators are also affected by the holidays:

• VIXUSD (Volatility Index)
  
• DXYUSD (US Dollar Index)
  

Both trade on Deriv MT5-only CFD schedules, with early closes on Christmas Eve and full closures on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.

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Commodities

Commodity markets often experience lower activity in the year-end period, but this also means prices can react more strongly to unexpected headlines.

Metals like gold, silver, palladium, and platinum, along with energy sources such as NGAS, UK Brent Oil, and US Oil, all have detailed holiday-adjusted schedules. Soft commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton, typically run on daytime sessions and close fully on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day, with some early closes on Christmas Eve.

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Stocks & ETFs

Equity trading follows the underlying exchange rules, with early closes and non-trading days around Christmas and New Year.

US stocks and ETFs see regular trading for most of December, with an early close on Christmas Eve and full closures on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.

EU stocks observe multiple holiday closures between 24–26 and 31 December and 1 January, while certain names like Airbus SE and Air France KLM SA have specific early close rules. ADX stocks in the UAE also have their own holiday calendar.

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Platform accessibility at a glance

Different markets are available on different platforms, and that doesn’t change just because it’s December. What does change are trading hours around the holidays.

Here’s how market access is structured:

• Deriv MT5: CFDs across forex, commodities, stocks, indices, cryptos, tactical indices, and macro indices
  
• Deriv Trader / Deriv Bot / Deriv GO: Options and multipliers on selected markets, plus crypto and derived products
  
• Deriv cTrader: CFDs for forex, commodities, indices, stocks and ETFs
  

Crypto and synthetic indices (excluding Forex Synthetic, Basket, and Tactical Indices) remain available 24/7, even on holidays.

Wrapping up the year: Trade smart, rest well

December is a unique period in the trading calendar. Markets slow down-but they don’t sleep. A well-timed trade can still present itself, but so can unexpected volatility.

A few insights as you navigate the final stretch of 2025:

• Know the hours. Don’t get caught with open positions as a market heads into an early close.
  
• Mind the liquidity. Lower volumes mean wider spreads and slippage-plan entries and exits carefully.
  
• Use the downtime wisely. Backtesting, strategy refinement, and reviewing your trading performance can be more valuable than forcing trades in thin conditions.

Meta’s $70 billion metaverse dream is giving way to an AI-centred reality. Reports indicate that the company may cut spending on its virtual-world ambitions by as much as 30% in 2026, following Reality Labs' accumulation of more than $60 billion in operating losses since 2021. 

Released data revealed the latest quarter alone delivered a $4.4 billion loss on revenues of roughly $470 million, underscoring the imbalance between ambition and commercial traction. Investors reacted with relief, pushing the stock up about 4% as hopes of sharper discipline replaced years of frustration with expensive experiments that failed to scale.

The pivot comes at a moment when artificial intelligence has become Meta’s primary strategic engine. Zuckerberg is increasingly positioning the company around compute capacity, custom silicon, and the Llama model suite, rather than avatar meetings in Horizon Worlds. Capital is shifting towards AI infrastructure that promises clearer revenue pathways and an addressable market investors can recognise. Many say the question is no longer whether the metaverse will define Meta’s future, but what remains of it as the company accelerates into the AI race.

What’s driving Meta’s pivot?

Several structural forces pushed Meta towards this recalibration. Reality Labs’ financial performance has become impossible to ignore: annual losses mounted from $10.2 billion in 2021 to $17.7 billion in 2024, with little sign of mainstream adoption to justify that trajectory. 

Horizon Worlds never became the digital town square Zuckerberg imagined, and the Quest headset line, while technologically impressive, struggled to break out of a niche enthusiast segment. It became clear that user behaviour was not bending toward VR at the speed Meta had assumed.

At the same time, artificial intelligence offered a more compelling commercial narrative. Meta expects to allocate $70–$72 billion in 2025 capital expenditure to data centres, AI chips, and model development. The company also poured $14.3 billion into Scale AI for a 49% stake, signalling a desire to anchor itself in the infrastructure layer of the AI ecosystem. The company shared this expansion reflects a shift from speculative platform-building to immediate demand from advertisers, enterprises, and developers seeking AI capability rather than immersive worlds.

Why it matters

According to analysts, the reallocation of resources is reshaping relationships across Meta’s internal and external circles. Investors have urged a more disciplined approach since Meta rebranded in 2021, and the metaverse’s thinning narrative provides cover for leadership to deliver what the market has long wanted: a company aligned with monetisable technology cycles. 

As one analyst told The Information late last year, “AI offers returns you can model; the metaverse was a decade-long leap of faith.” That sentiment is echoing through Wall Street as Meta signals the beginning of a more grounded investment era.

The internal consequences are no less significant, experts added. Metaverse-linked teams face deeper cuts than the rest of the company, and layoffs could begin as early as January if plans are finalised. Developers and hardware specialists must adjust to an ecosystem where the headset is no longer the strategic centrepiece. Instead, AI will define the purpose of products, user engagement, and the economics of Meta’s next decade.

Impact on the tech industry, markets, and consumers

Market watchers noted, the tech landscape is reportedly adjusting to Meta’s shift. Rivals who reframed or quietly stepped away from their own metaverse narratives now appear prescient. Apple’s emphasis on “spatial computing” rather than outright virtual immersion has helped it avoid the backlash Meta is now navigating. With Meta stepping back, Apple gains a clearer runway in high-end mixed reality, while Meta moves aggressively toward becoming one of the world’s biggest AI compute buyers.

For consumers, the shift will be felt in the products they encounter. Quest headsets will continue, but expectations for a unified metaverse platform are fading, according to experts. Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses - a surprise success - point to a future where lighter, socially acceptable devices serve as the gateway to AI companions rather than portals to synthetic universes. The company has already framed these glasses as the ideal home for “personal superintelligence,” suggesting they may become the real successor to the smartphone in Meta’s long-term thinking.

It’s reported that developers will also experience a strategic reordering. Those building VR-first experiences will find a smaller, more experimental space, while AI-driven tools, agents, and multimodal interfaces receive greater support. Markets have interpreted the pivot in similar terms: capital flowing into chipmakers, cloud landlords, and AI-aligned firms reflects broad confidence that Meta intends to compete aggressively in this arena.

Expert outlook

Analysts expect Meta to retain a metaverse presence, but as a long-horizon research initiative rather than a defining vision. The company’s hiring of former Apple design lead Alan Dye suggests hardware innovation remains central - only now in service of AI rather than virtual worlds. The goal appears to be seamless, elegant devices that carry Meta’s intelligence models into everyday life.

Still, the pivot presents both opportunities and strategic risks. By shrinking its metaverse ambitions now, Meta relinquishes the scale advantage it once claimed in spatial computing. Should VR or mixed reality rebound faster than expected, the company may find itself outpaced by rivals. Yet, the prevailing view is that AI offers clearer economics and more near-term adoption. The upcoming January earnings call will provide the first concrete indication of how deep the cuts run and how quickly Meta plans to reshape its product pipeline.

Key takeaway

Meta’s decision to trim its metaverse budget by up to 30% marks a profound shift from speculative virtual worlds to capital-intensive artificial intelligence. AI now anchors the company’s roadmap, its spending, and its strategic identity, while VR and AR recede into the realm of experimentation. Investors welcome the clarity, but the full impact will become apparent only once the January earnings call confirms the extent of the pivot. Meta is repositioning itself for the technologies people are adopting today - and the ones it hopes to shape tomorrow.

Meta technical insights

At the start of writing, Meta Platforms (META) is trading around $672.50, extending its rebound after a strong climb from recent lows. The price is now approaching a key resistance zone at $760.00, with an additional barrier at $785.85, where traders typically expect profit-taking or FOMO-driven buying if the rally gains further strength. On the downside, support levels sit at $640.00 and $585.00, and a break below either would likely trigger sell liquidations and deepen the corrective move.

The recent price recovery has carried META toward the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting renewed bullish momentum after weeks of heavy selling. However, the candles show early signs of hesitation as the price approaches resistance, suggesting the market may soon test the conviction of buyers.

The RSI, now climbing toward 70, indicates that momentum is improving steadily but also edging close to overbought territory. This highlights sustained buying interest, while hinting that the upside could become limited unless META clears the resistance decisively.

Bitcoin’s recovery back towards $92,000 has arrived at a pivotal moment, with traders weighing whether the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut could ignite the market’s next decisive move. The rebound from December’s $82,000 trough has steadied sentiment after October’s $19 billion leverage wipeout, yet liquidity remains thin and order books fragile.

A cut would lower funding costs and could reawaken dormant risk appetite, but Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests investors are still navigating the aftershocks of tightening policy and inconsistent inflation data. With jobless-claim forecasts rising and quantitative tightening now concluded, this week’s decision may determine whether Bitcoin breaks out of its narrow range - or continues to drift until liquidity returns.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s move?

Bitcoin has climbed to around $91,550 after reclaiming the $90,000 handle over the weekend, supported by a tentative shift in macro expectations. Traders remain cautious after October’s sudden $19 billion leverage purge, which erased order-book depth and exposed structural fragilities across major exchanges. 

Market makers have been slow to return, a hesitation that has kept price action contained even as broader risk sentiment improves. The end of quantitative tightening on 1 December has further strengthened expectations for a rate cut, particularly as economists forecast a 30,000 rise in initial jobless claims this week.

This realignment is happening against the backdrop of historic capital inflows into Bitcoin. Glassnode’s Q4 Digital Assets Report shows that the 2022–2025 cycle has attracted $732 billion in net inflows - more than all previous cycles combined. 

Monthly inflows, which peaked at nearly $40 billion in October, have since cooled to around $15 billion but remain structurally significant. Realised Cap has reached a new all-time high of $1.1 trillion, signalling long-term confidence even as short-term volatility contracts.

Why it matters

As Bitcoin becomes increasingly institutional, its sensitivity to global rate expectations has intensified. Michael Wu, CEO of Amber Group, notes that shifts in rate guidance “ripple through crypto funding markets in Asia far more quickly than traditional asset classes,” with funding spreads and borrowing costs adjusting almost instantly to central bank signals. This tightening correlation has prompted trading desks to diversify liquidity across CeFi and DeFi venues, a strategic response to heightened volatility and thinner market depth.

Inflation dynamics add another layer of complexity. Services inflation has cooled from its peaks but remains firmer than goods, and shelter continues to run above the Fed’s target. That uneven progress complicates the central bank’s disinflation effort and keeps markets uncertain about the pace and depth of future rate cuts. 

Gold and silver have surged on this uncertainty, while Bitcoin - which remains more sensitive to liquidity shocks than equities - has struggled to break out. Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone argues that Bitcoin often underperforms the S&P 500 when equity volatility rises, citing ongoing realignment in risk preferences. His perspective aligns with a broader theme: Bitcoin’s trajectory is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-native catalysts.

Impact on markets and investors

The October liquidation shock has left a long shadow. Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital describes a market where “order books were wiped out” and liquidity has yet to recover fully. This fragility amplifies the impact of macroeconomic data releases, resulting in sharper intraday moves and a narrower trading corridor. Even if a rate cut is announced, the absence of deep liquidity may temper any initial rally, turning it into a gradual grind rather than a straight breakout.

Institutional positioning reinforces this dynamic. Bitcoin’s dominance has risen from 38.7% to 58.3% since late 2022 - a pivot towards higher-liquidity assets as retail speculation declines. Ethereum’s share has slipped to 12.1%, extending its multi-year underperformance since the 2022 Merge. 

Stablecoins now make up 8.3% of the market and remain the core settlement layer across both centralised and decentralised venues, especially in emerging markets. Long-term volatility has decreased from 84% to 43%, indicating that market depth and institutional weighting are stabilising the asset, even if short-term swings remain outsized.

This contrasts sharply with more ideological narratives circulating in the ecosystem. Michael Saylor, adopting a geopolitical frame, has argued that the United States should accumulate Bitcoin before rivals, warning they would otherwise “buy it back at $50 million a coin”. While this reflects the extreme bullish sentiment that periodically captures market attention, it stands apart from the macro and liquidity considerations guiding near-term price action.

Expert outlook

The immediate question is whether a rate cut can trigger a decisive breakout. Lower borrowing costs typically support risk-taking and may encourage market makers to scale back in. McMillin believes the conditions are already improving following the end of quantitative tightening, suggesting that “the market is set to rally,” with a cut potentially acting as the catalyst. Still, many desks remain cautious, mindful that liquidity may take months to rebuild. As a result, any post-cut rally may unfold in stages, rather than erupt in a single move.

Longer-term indicators remain supportive. Record capital inflows, rising Realised Cap, and a structural decline in volatility all point to a more resilient market than in past cycles. Yet Bitcoin’s next phase depends on how macro conditions evolve. Traders will focus on the Fed’s policy statement, jobless claims data, and equity volatility to gauge whether a sustainable trend can emerge. A break above recent highs is possible, but only if liquidity rebuilds and funding conditions continue to soften. For now, Bitcoin’s climb back above $90,000 represents the beginning of a transition rather than a confirmed shift in regime, according to analysts.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s climb back above $90,000 comes at a critical juncture, with the Federal Reserve poised to shape its next major move. A rate cut could ignite a rally, but thin liquidity and cautious market makers may restrain the initial response. Structural data remains bullish; however, the market’s near-term path hinges on macroeconomic signals rather than crypto-specific momentum. The next clues will come from the Fed’s tone, trends in jobless claims, and the pace at which liquidity returns.

Technical analysis

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $91,545, continuing to stabilise above the key $84,000 support level. This zone remains crucial; a decisive break below it would likely trigger sell-side liquidations and extend the broader downtrend. On the upside, BTC faces resistance at $105,000 and $116,000, areas where traders typically anticipate profit-taking or the return of FOMO-driven buying if momentum strengthens.

Price action reflects a tentative recovery. BTC is holding within the mid-section of its Bollinger Band range after several weeks of heavy downside pressure, a sign that sentiment is improving even if conviction remains limited. The RSI near 49 has risen sharply from earlier lows and now sits just above the midline. This signals a shift in momentum as sellers lose dominance, though it also indicates that Bitcoin has not yet entered strong bullish territory. A sustained push higher will likely depend on the market’s ability to form higher lows and build pressure toward the $105,000 resistance.

Gold and silver are climbing at a pace that reflects more than a routine haven rally. Their surge has become the clearest expression of the so-called debasement trade - a shift by investors who believe political instability, widening fiscal risks, and weakening currencies are chipping away at real purchasing power. 

Silver futures have doubled this year, while gold is up more than 60%, signalling how widespread the flight into hard assets has become.

Copper’s record high above $11,400 per tonne adds weight to this shift, but it is gold and silver that best capture the market’s concern that volatile policy choices can distort the value of money itself. Their rise now hinges on a complex mix of supply constraints, tariff tensions, and expectations of easier monetary policy, setting the stage for a pivotal period ahead.

What’s driving gold and silver higher?

The forces behind the metals rally have intensified in recent months as the economic backdrop weakens. Labour data showing a 32,000 job loss in November - the first negative three-month employment trend since 2020 - has reinforced the sense that the US economy is slowing. 

Markets now expect a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, a shift that has pushed the dollar lower and strengthened the appeal of non-yielding assets. Treasury bill yields dipping below the Fed funds rate have added to the impression that policy is turning accommodative again.

Alongside these macro pressures comes a significant structural story, according to analysts. Silver is being driven not by speculative flows but by an extraordinary rise in physical demand, led by India’s imports of around 60 million ounces in October - four times last year’s levels. 

Executives describe this as the first period in decades when the physical market is determining price direction. Gold is experiencing its own structural push, with central banks buying 53 tonnes in October alone as countries such as Poland and Brazil diversify away from the US dollar. Supply constraints in both metals are tightening at the same time that demand is accelerating.

Why it matters

The rally in gold and silver is resonating beyond commodity markets because it reflects a broader erosion of confidence in major currencies. Bloomberg reports that the US dollar has fallen nearly 10% since President Trump took office, while the yen and euro have also weakened.

Investors are increasingly worried that erratic policy choices - from tariffs to budget standoffs - could undermine currency stability. Hard assets, such as gold and silver, have become the preferred hedge against this environment, anchoring portfolios where traditional currency hedges appear insufficient.

Some analysts push back on the narrative of broad debasement, arguing that continued global demand for US government debt contradicts claims of a meaningful shift away from the dollar. As one strategist observed, “If the dollar were truly being rejected, Treasury markets would be the first to show it.” Yet that reassurance has done little to stem renewed interest in metals, largely because they offer protection from policy missteps rather than from economic fundamentals alone.

Impact on markets and investors

The surge in silver is reshaping investor behaviour, with bars and coins increasingly treated as long-term holdings rather than trading assets. In the United States, much of the silver accumulated over the past 15 years has barely returned to the market, creating chronic tightness as industrial demand rises. Manufacturers in the solar, electronics, and automotive sectors are securing multi-year supply contracts to shield themselves from escalating costs and the risk of shortages.

Gold’s ascent is influencing both currency and bond markets as investors adjust to the prospect of lower US interest rates. While stronger jobs data last week lent temporary support to the dollar, most traders believe weakening financial conditions and rising geopolitical risks will sustain interest in gold. Trump’s comments on uncertainty surrounding Ukraine peace talks have reinforced a sense that geopolitical stability remains elusive, further boosting safe-haven flows.

Expert outlook

Most analysts expect gold and silver to remain supported into the early part of next year, though both face short-term sensitivity to inflation data and Treasury yields. Friday’s delayed US PCE report will be a critical test: a hotter reading could strengthen the dollar and temporarily cap gold’s advance. Even so, the broader direction of travel for policy points towards easing, which tends to underpin precious metals.

Silver’s outlook is underpinned by a deepening supply deficit, now in its fifth consecutive year and projected to reach up to 95 million ounces in 2025. Mine development leads times of a decade or more, and limited recycling capacity leaves the market exposed to further squeezes. India’s demand will remain a key variable; any sustained buying at current levels could push the market into even tighter territory. Gold, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from ongoing central-bank accumulation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Key takeaway

Gold and silver are rising on a cocktail of currency anxiety, political instability, and tightening physical supply. The debasement trade - once a fringe idea - is now shaping mainstream asset allocation as investors seek protection from unpredictable policy. Supply deficits in silver and renewed gold accumulation by central banks give the rally deeper foundations than many expected. Inflation data and the Fed’s next move will decide how firmly the trend holds into 2026.

Gold and silver technical insights

At the start of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,223, consolidating just beneath the key $4,240 resistance level. This zone, along with the higher $4,365 barrier, is where traders typically anticipate profit-taking or potential FOMO-driven buying if bullish momentum accelerates. On the downside, support sits at $4,035 and $3,935, and a break below either would likely trigger sell liquidations and a deeper corrective phase.

Price action remains constructive overall, with gold continuing to trade within the upper half of its Bollinger Band range - a sign that buyers still maintain control despite slowing upside momentum. The recent tight clustering of candles suggests the market is pausing rather than reversing, awaiting fresh catalysts to spark the next move.

The RSI, now around 76, is rising gradually above the midline, indicating sustained bullish momentum but edging closer to overbought territory. While this supports the ongoing uptrend, it also hints at limited upside unless gold can decisively clear the $4,240 resistance.

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $58.08, consolidating just below the key $58.69 resistance level. This area often attracts early profit-taking, although a clear break could invite fresh long positioning as momentum traders look to extend the rally. On the downside, support sits at $50.00 and $46.93, and a move beneath either would likely trigger sell liquidations and deepen any corrective swing. Traders using Deriv MT5 may find this range particularly active, as the metal’s elevated volatility continues to create sharper intraday swings.

Price action stays firmly bullish, with silver holding near the upper Bollinger Band following a steep rally. This behaviour underscores persistent buy-side interest even as the market pauses under resistance. With volatility elevated, many traders rely on tools such as the Deriv trading calculator to map margin requirements and calibrate position sizes before entering the next leg of the move.

The RSI is hovering around 78.5, sitting just below overbought territory and highlighting strong yet stretched momentum. That supports the broader uptrend but also hints at possible short-term pullbacks unless silver can break resistance convincingly. A decisive move above $58.69 would likely reset momentum and attract trend followers back into the market.