Bitcoin’s hanging out near all-time highs, headlines are buzzing, and GameStop just casually bought half a billion dollars worth. So why are the whales, the big-money Bitcoin holders, quietly shifting coins to exchanges?

On-chain data says some of the biggest players in the game are easing off the gas. They’re not scooping up BTC like before, instead, they’re edging toward the exit. 

Is this a warning sign? Or just the usual drama in crypto’s never-boring storyline?

Bitcoin whales tap the brakes

Blockchain analysts have spotted something interesting: those giant wallets holding over 10,000 BTC, aka whales, are no longer in accumulation mode. According to Glassnode, their Accumulation Trend Score has dipped to 0.4. 

Translation? We’re now in “let’s cash in some gains” territory.

Even more telling, these wallets, many of which were buying when BTC hovered around $75K, are now moving coins to exchanges. Historically, that’s not just a coincidence. That’s what whales do before they sell.

Is Bitcoin peaking?

Not necessarily. When Bitcoin hits a major rally, it’s normal for big holders to lock in profits. It doesn’t mean the top is in, just that the smart money is doing what it does best: managing risk.

There’s also been a wave of optimism coming out of the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas - everything from pro-crypto policy announcements to whispers about a national Bitcoin reserve. All this hype creates the perfect backdrop for whales to sell into strength while everyone else is euphoric.

But let’s be clear: whales aren’t psychic. They’re just loaded and logical. Their moves usually reflect the broader market cycle - not some insider panic button.

Bitcoin institutional buying

While whales are trimming, institutions are still piling in. This week, GameStop revealed it bought 4,710 BTC, roughly $500 million, as part of its bold leap into digital assets.

MicroStrategy isn’t sitting still either. It just added another 4,020 BTC, bringing its total stash to a staggering 580,250 coins.

So, while some are taking chips off the table, others are going all in. If anything, the long-term belief in Bitcoin is still standing tall.

XRP strategic reserve move

Speaking of crypto confidence, XRP’s making headlines of its own. Webus International just announced plans to raise $300 million to build a strategic XRP reserve. The goal? Use XRP to power cross-border payments across its AI-driven transport network.

And it’s not the only one jumping on the XRP bandwagon. VivoPower, a Nasdaq-listed energy company, recently secured $121 million to kick off its own XRP treasury strategy - making it the first publicly traded firm to do so.

With former Ripple board member Adam Traidman joining as an advisor and major royal family backing, it’s clear XRP isn’t just riding the hype - it’s attracting serious money. 

Bitcoin price prediction 2025

In the short term, Bitcoin might get a bit choppy. It’s bouncing between $107K and $109K, and if whale selling picks up, we could see a test of support levels.

But zoom out, and this isn’t a crash according to analysts - it’s a breather. Mid-size wallets and smaller holders are still accumulating, which signals grassroots confidence.

And on the XRP front? Institutional interest is picking up, with treasury strategies, ETF rumours, and real-world payment use cases gaining steam.

Bottom line: don’t let the whale noise throw you off your game. Whether you’re in Bitcoin, XRP, or both, remember that markets move in cycles. The key is staying focused, not flustered.

Bitcoin technical insight: Whale slump or institutional uptick?

Whales are selling. It happens. They’ve made a tidy profit, and now they’re managing risk. It doesn’t mean the sky is falling -  just that the market is cooling off after a hot streak.

Meanwhile, institutions are buying, retail is holding, and the broader adoption trend is still moving forward.

The question isn’t whether whales are selling. It’s whether you’ve got a plan that can handle it. At the time of writing, BTC is hovering around its all-time high in a buy zone - hinting at potential further upside. The bullish narrative is challenged by the volume bars indicating dominant sell pressure over the past few days. Bulls could encounter a resistance wall at the all-time high, and should we see a slump, prices could find support at the $102,800, $93,400 and $82,800 support levels.

Has Bitcoin found its peak for now?  You can speculate on BTCUSD with a Deriv MT5 account.

As summer kicks off, oil markets are bracing for a season of sharp moves and mixed signals. As per reports, supply headlines are turning heads - Chevron’s exit from Venezuela, Canadian wildfires, and OPEC+ doing the bare minimum. But demand? Still half-asleep, even with the summer driving season in sight.

Geopolitics is adding fuel to the fire: US-Iran nuclear talks, shifting trade tensions, and sanctions chatter are all keeping traders on edge.

This isn’t a market with a clear direction. It’s one that could swing hard, fast - and often. Buckle up.

Oil supply disruptions 

Let’s start with the drama out of Venezuela. Chevron has been told it can no longer export crude from the country - a move that immediately trims supply to the US, where refiners now have to go shopping elsewhere. Most likely? The Middle East. That’s not just a shift in barrels, it’s a shift in geopolitical risk.

At the same time, Canadian wildfires are threatening oil sands production, and it wouldn’t take much for that to escalate into a meaningful shortfall - especially if demand picks up (more on that in a minute).

And then there’s OPEC+. The group met and did nothing - no production cuts, no hikes, just a vague promise of future decisions. Another meeting is scheduled for Saturday 31 May, where a smaller group might agree to a modest increase for July. But with compliance issues already dogging the alliance, it’s hard to tell whether that would actually mean more barrels or just more noise.

Oil Demand isn’t exactly charging ahead

Now for the other half of the picture: demand.

This time of year usually sees a surge in fuel consumption, especially in the US, where road trips and holiday travel bump up gasoline use. But so far, it’s been more of a crawl than a sprint. Inventories are still relatively high, and early indicators suggest the summer driving season might be more subdued than hoped.

China, which many were counting on to power global demand, isn’t pulling its weight either. Its post-COVID rebound has been lukewarm, and industrial activity remains patchy. Not exactly the growth story oil bulls were banking on.

In short, the demand side isn’t dead, but it’s definitely not doing much to justify $90 oil.

GeoPolitics and oil 

When actual supply and demand fundamentals get this blurry, oil tends to take its cues from politics. And there’s no shortage of that.

The US and Iran are back at the table, sort of, trying to revive the nuclear deal. If anything gets signed, which is a big if, it could mean more Iranian oil back on the market, fast. That’s a wildcard traders can’t ignore.

Meanwhile, the EU and US seem to be warming to each other again, with Brussels quietly laying the groundwork for deeper trade ties. If that translates into improved economic activity, it might give demand a bit of a kick.

Let’s not forget the ever-present backdrop of Russian sanctions. Russia’s oil exports have proven surprisingly resilient over time despite headline-making global challenges. 

Any new measures or enforcement surprises could spark another supply jolt.

So, what does this all mean for the oil market?

In simple terms: don’t expect a smooth ride.

Oil prices could surge due to a supply disruption, a surprise from OPEC+, or a flash of geopolitical tension. Equally, they could drop sharply if Iranian oil returns, demand stays soft, or inventory builds up.

This isn’t a market where the fundamentals are clearly bullish or bearish. It’s a market that’s emotional, headline-driven, and hypersensitive.

And that, more than anything, is why this summer could be one of the most unpredictable we’ve seen in a while.

Oil technical insights

At the time of writing, we are seeing a significant surge in oil prices within a sell zone - hinting at a potential drawdown. However, the volume bars paint a picture of declining sell pressure, setting the stage for a potential price uptick. Should prices see a further uptick, we could see prices held at the $64.00 resistance wall. 

A major uptick could see prices find a ceiling at the $71.00 price level. In contrast, if we see a slump within the sell zone, prices could find support floors at the $60.15 and $57.30 support levels.

Will oil prices keep surging? You can speculate on OIL with a Deriv MT5 account.

It’s been a curious week for the world’s most-watched currency. The US dollar has put on a bit of a show - gaining ground thanks to upbeat consumer confidence and a wobbling yen. But beneath the headlines, there’s a growing sense that all is not entirely well in the kingdom of greenbacks.

From tariff tensions to ballooning US debt, and with even Christine Lagarde casually suggesting the euro could step up, the dollar’s dominance isn’t quite as unshakeable as it once seemed. So, are we looking at the start of a slow erosion in the dollar’s global clout, or is this just another blip in a long run of resilience?

Let’s unpack what’s really driving the moves and where the cracks might be forming.

Dollar rally: Short-term strength, long-term questions

The dollar’s rally this week was more due to relative weakness elsewhere than to fireworks from the US economy. The Japanese yen slipped under pressure after a sharp fall in long-dated Japanese government bond yields, a move tied to speculation that Japan’s Ministry of Finance might scale back the issuance of super-long bonds. 

That drop in yields spooked yen bulls and offered a bit of breathing space for the greenback.

Add to that a better-than-expected reading on US consumer confidence in May, and the dollar had just enough fuel for a short-term lift. But there’s more than a little uncertainty brewing beneath the surface.

Kashkari keeps it cool

While some traders clutched onto the consumer confidence figures as a sign of economic momentum, the Federal Reserve remains cautious. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari threw cold water on any hawkish excitement, suggesting rates should stay put until there’s clarity on how rising tariffs might impact inflation.

Kashkari warned against “looking through” supply-side price shocks, a nod to the messy, unpredictable ripple effects that trade policy can have on prices. His tone was measured, but the message was clear: there’s still a lot that could go sideways.

The potential Euro alternative

The euro didn’t have such a good week. French inflation fell to its lowest level since December 2020, weighing on the common currency and giving the dollar another relative advantage.

That said, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde added a provocative note to the conversation. Speaking earlier this week, she floated the idea that the euro could become a credible alternative to the dollar if, and it’s a big if, the EU strengthens its financial and security framework.

It was more vision than verdict, but still, the fact that the conversation is happening hints at signs of shifting sands in global finance.

Trade tensions take centre stage

On the trade front, President Trump backed away from threatening to slap 50% tariffs on EU imports next month, a move that calmed markets and lifted risk sentiment. Still, the underlying concern hasn’t gone away.

Both investors and policymakers are aware that escalating tariffs, whether with the EU, China, or elsewhere, could drag on growth and stir up inflation. The Fed’s caution reflects that, and it’s why many in the market remain hesitant to price in rate cuts too early, even with inflation seemingly under control for now.

Government debt and economic growth

Then there’s the elephant in the room: US government debt. A new spending and tax bill is crawling through Congress, expected to add trillions to the country’s already weighty balance sheet. While some analysts think it might slightly improve the deficit-to-GDP ratio, few are confident it puts the US on a sustainable fiscal path.

Unsurprisingly, no one’s thrilled. Conservatives think the cuts didn’t go far enough; progressives think they went too far in the wrong places. Markets, for now, are holding their nerve - but the longer-term consequences of persistent deficit spending are hard to ignore.

USDJPY outlook: Cracks in the crown, or some wear and tear?

So, is dollar supremacy under threat? In the short term, not really. The dollar remains the world’s go-to currency, especially in times of volatility. But the chorus of caution is growing louder - from central bankers, fiscal hawks, and geopolitical analysts alike.

The real risk may not be an abrupt dethroning but a slow erosion. As global players like the EU work to strengthen their institutions and as the US grapples with mounting debt and political division, the dollar’s dominance may become less absolute.

At the time of writing, the USDJPY pair is seeing an uptick as the dollar rebounds. The rebound happening within a sell zone suggests that it could be curtailed. However, the volume bars tell a story of strong bullish pressure being countered by weaker sell pressure, hinting at a potential further uptick.

If we see a further uptick, the price could encounter resistance walls at the $145.40 and $148.00 price levels. On the other hand, should we see a slump, prices could be held at the $142.20 support floor.

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The first wave of the AI boom was all fire and flash, jaw-dropping demos, GPU shortages, and enough hype to power a small data centre. But as earnings season kicks off, investors are shifting focus from spectacle to substance. The question now isn’t just what AI can do but who’s making it work at scale, and more importantly, who’s getting paid for it.

Nvidia and Salesforce sit on opposite ends of the AI value chain, but both are gearing up for closely watched earnings reports this week. Nvidia, the undisputed king of AI hardware, has ridden a historic surge in demand - but regulatory pressure and rising competition are starting to nip at its heels. Salesforce, meanwhile, is trying to prove that its AI-powered platform, Agentforce, is more than just a shiny new add-on - it’s a growth engine for the next phase of enterprise tech.

As generative AI moves from labs and headlines to boardrooms and balance sheets, the stakes are shifting. It’s not about who got in early; it’s about who can lead the second wave.

Nvidia: Riding high, but with a few clouds overhead

Let’s start with Nvidia. Wall Street expects a blowout quarter again, continuing its period of impressive revenue growth.

The chipmaker is forecast to post $43.4 billion in revenue, up a staggering 66% year-on-year, and net income of over $21 billion. That’s what happens when your GPUs are effectively the backbone of modern AI.

But even tech royalty can’t ignore geopolitics. Export restrictions to China have already cost Nvidia billions - a $5.5 billion charge related to its H20 chips, to be exact. CEO Jensen Huang hasn’t minced words, calling the US policy a “failure” that’s done more harm to American innovation than to China’s ambitions. Add in supply constraints and Big Tech firms cooking up their own chips, and the road ahead looks a little bumpier than the last few quarters.

Still, Nvidia remains the gold standard in AI infrastructure. The question is whether its valuation reflects future potential or is already priced for perfection. Investors will be listening carefully for any signs of softening demand, especially as the world moves from AI development to AI deployment.

Salesforce AI integration: From promises to proof points

If Nvidia is the arms dealer of the AI boom, Salesforce is trying to be the strategist - selling tools that help businesses actually use AI. Its latest push comes in the form of Agentforce, an AI-powered platform that’s seen solid early traction with over 3,000 paying customers. It’s slick, it’s integrated with Slack, and it’s designed to supercharge customer service, sales forecasting, and more.

But the bar is high. Salesforce’s core revenue growth has slowed to around 9%, and while its margins and cash flow are improving, it needs to show that AI can meaningfully reaccelerate the top line. 

Analysts are expecting non-GAAP EPS of $2.54, which would be a 4% increase year-on-year - respectable, but not earth-shattering.

This quarter, Salesforce’s job is to prove that Agentforce isn’t just lipstick on a legacy platform. Can AI really help close deals faster? Can it reduce churn, increase productivity, and justify higher subscription tiers? These are the questions investors want answered.

The real test: enterprise AI in action

We’ve moved beyond the phase of AI where impressing investors was enough. Now it’s about impressing CFOs, operations leads, and IT buyers - the people who need to justify spend with real results. In that context, Nvidia and Salesforce represent two different bets on AI’s future.

Nvidia’s challenge is maintaining momentum in a maturing, competitive landscape. Salesforce’s challenge is proving its AI tools work in the real world - and that customers are willing to pay for them.

What they have in common is pressure. Pressure to meet high expectations. Pressure to show that AI is more than a line on a product roadmap or an earnings call and the pressure to deliver clarity in a market that’s already seen one hype cycle come and go.

Technical outlook: Who leads the second wave of AI?

AI’s first wave was all about possibility - building the models, the chips, the infrastructure. That story was Nvidia’s to tell. The second wave is about practicality: embedding AI into workflows, improving business outcomes, and proving ROI. That’s where companies like Salesforce need to step up.

With earnings on the horizon, the spotlight is squarely on these two tech giants. Nvidia needs to defend its crown. Salesforce needs to prove it’s earned a seat at the table.

Either way, this week could help shape the next chapter in enterprise AI - not just who’s building the future, but who’s actually selling it.

At the time of writing, Nvidia is showing some buy pressure on the daily chart. With prices currently hovering around a sell-zone there is a case to be made about a potential drawdown. However, the volume bars show that buy pressure is strengthening, building a case for a bullish move. Should bulls take over, prices could encounter a resistance wall at the $135.95 price level. If we see a significant slump, prices could find support at the $113.92 and $104.80 support level.

Salesforce on the other hand is showing some sell pressure on the daily chart within a sell-zone - hinting at potential further draw downs. The bearish narrative is also supported by the volume bars showing increased bearish momentum. Should we see a significant draw down, prices could be held at the $262.75 support level. If we see bounce, prices could encounter resistance at the $290 and $330 resistance levels. 

Looking forward to Nvidia and CRM earnings? You can speculate on Nvidia and CRM price action with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.

Apple isn’t used to being the odd one out - especially not in tech’s elite circle. But while the rest of the “Magnificent Seven” have been enjoying a decent run lately, Apple’s shares have quietly slipped into the red. Down over 20% so far this year and trailing its peers in May, the world’s most valuable brand suddenly looks a little less invincible.

What’s behind the dip? A mix of politics, production headaches, and some pointed words from Donald Trump, who’s now threatening a 25% tariff on iPhones not made in the United States. For a company that’s spent years building a finely tuned global supply chain, it’s a curveball - and one that’s already spooked markets.

But before writing off Apple as past its peak, it’s worth digging a little deeper. Is this really a sign of trouble in Cupertino - or just a short-term bruise on an otherwise solid business?

Apple tariff threats and the Trump effect

It all kicked off (again) with a post on Truth Social. Donald Trump publicly reminded Apple CEO Tim Cook that he expects iPhones sold in the US to be made in the US. Not in India. Not in China. Not anywhere else. If not, Apple should expect to pay “at least" a 25% tariff. Not exactly subtle.

For a company that doesn’t currently produce iPhones on American soil, that’s a major headache. Apple has already been shifting some of its manufacturing away from China to places like India and Vietnam - partly to diversify and partly to dodge earlier tariffs. But clearly, that’s not enough to keep the president happy.

Markets weren’t thrilled either. Apple’s stock fell over 3% following the remarks, marking its eighth consecutive day of losses. 

While a tariff might sound like a punchy headline, it’s more than just talk. Apple’s supply chain isn’t something you can uproot overnight. Analysts say a full move to US manufacturing could take five to ten years - and push the price of an iPhone to around $3,500. That’s a hard sell.

Short-term pain, long-term confidence?

Despite the political noise, analysts aren’t jumping ship. In fact, many are staying calm. Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson compares it to turbulence on a flight, uncomfortable in the moment, but not a reason to abandon the journey.

Why the optimism? Because Apple’s business isn’t built on short-term headlines. It’s built on a famously sticky ecosystem. Once you’ve got an iPhone, it’s surprisingly easy to end up with a MacBook, AirPods, and an Apple Watch - not to mention a growing list of services. That kind of customer loyalty is hard to shake, even with the threat of tariffs.

If tariffs are applied to Apple, they’re likely to hit Samsung and other global smartphone makers, too. That levels the playing field and makes Apple no worse off competitively. Still, depending on how much of the cost Apple absorbs and how much gets passed to consumers or suppliers, it could dent earnings in the near term.

So, is Apple still a buy?

Here’s where it gets interesting. Apple’s stock is trading at around 26 times forward earnings - a bit cheaper than some of its Magnificent Seven siblings like Nvidia or Microsoft. However, it is also expected to grow slower. Its three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is pegged at just over 9%.

But slower growth doesn’t mean no growth. Apple is still wildly profitable, with strong cash flow and one of the most iconic brands in the world. And while the headlines have been dramatic, most analysts agree this isn’t a structural crisis, it’s more of a political tiff, wrapped in some market nerves.

The real issue may not be the tariffs themselves, but the shifting tone between Trump and Cook. In his first term, the two had a relatively cosy relationship. Now? Not so much. That could make negotiations harder if Trump wins a second term and turns his tariff talk into action.

Technical outlook: 

Apple might be bruised, but according to analysts, it’s far from broken. The tariff threats are real, and the stock performance has been undeniably soft, but the fundamentals remain strong. This is a company with deep pockets, a loyal customer base, and a product lineup that keeps people coming back.

So, is it time to panic? Probably not. Is it time to watch closely? Absolutely. Because whether or not Apple moves its manufacturing to the US, one thing is clear: the political pressure isn’t going away. And neither, it seems, is Apple.

At the time of writing, Apple is showing signs of a bounce within a sell zone. The volume bars show that buy pressure is strengthening - adding to the bullish narrative. Should we see a bounce, prices could find resistance at the $212.40 and $223.35 price levels. If we see a slump, prices could find a support floor at the $192.96 support level.

Are you monitoring Apple ? You can speculate on the price trajectory of Apple stock with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.

After weeks of relentless pressure, the US dollar is showing signs of life - just as its two major rivals, the euro and the yen, gain momentum from diverging economic signals. While safe-haven flows and hawkish whispers from the Bank of Japan have strengthened the yen, the euro’s fortunes are tethered to mixed PMI data and cautious optimism from ECB policymakers. 

With markets now weighing rate cuts from the Fed against potential tightening abroad, a critical question emerges: is the dollar merely pausing on its way down, or is this the beginning of a broader comeback?

Euro holds firm as US data misses the mark

The euro has been capitalising on the dollar’s stumbles, with EUR/USD breaking above 1.1300 before pulling back to around 1.1270. This move came off the back of softer-than-expected US data and fresh optimism in the eurozone, even as its own PMI figures fell short.

In the US, the latest S&P Global PMIs came in above expectations, with manufacturing and services both printing at 52.3 - a solid sign of resilience. 

However, that wasn’t enough to fully restore confidence in the dollar. Market nerves were already frayed by concerns over Trump’s freshly approved tax bill, which, according to the CBO, could add $3.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

Across the pond, eurozone PMIs disappointed, particularly in the services sector, which dropped below 50 - a sign of contraction. 

Even so, euro bulls found some comfort in the German IFO business climate improving slightly and ECB officials maintaining a cautiously constructive tone. Vice-President Luis De Guindos noted inflation might return to the 2% target soon, while others hinted that rate cuts remain on the table - but only if justified by the data.

In short, the euro isn’t exactly powering ahead - it’s more a case of the dollar struggling to stay upright.

Yen revival fuelled by safe-haven currency flows and BOJ shifts

The yen, on the other hand, is gaining strength for reasons that go beyond simple dollar weakness. With equity markets wobbling and geopolitical tensions rising, demand for safe-haven assets like the yen has picked up. Throw in renewed tariff fears and the lingering fog over the US economy, and it’s clear why investors are hedging into the Japanese currency.

But here’s the real kicker: the Bank of Japan, long known for its ultra-loose monetary stance, is now showing signs of change. Under the leadership of Kazuo Ueda, Japanese bond yields have surged. The 30-year yield hit a 25-year high at around 3.2%, while the 40-year yield is now above 3.5%, the highest since the instrument’s inception in 2007.

This has drastically narrowed the yield differential between US and Japanese debt, making the dollar less appealing. Combine that with a cooling US inflation outlook and speculation that the Fed could cut rates twice by year-end, and the yen is suddenly looking like the smarter long-term hold.

To make things worse for the dollar, the yen carry trade, a long-time favourite for traders borrowing cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere, is starting to unwind. That spells further trouble for USD/JPY, which has already dropped around 1.09% this week.

Dollar index technical outlook: A bounce or a blip?

Despite all this, the dollar isn’t going quietly. On Thursday, USD/JPY snapped a three-day losing streak, rising over 0.20% late in the New York session, likely due to some profit-taking before the weekend rather than a shift in fundamentals. The pair found some footing around 143.96, having earlier dipped as low as 142.80.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) clawed its way back above the psychological 100.00 level, buoyed by firm PMI readings and a slight dip in jobless claims, which came in at 227K, better than forecast.

But is this enough to call a bottom?

EURUSD forecast: Dollar at a make-or-break moment?

The dollar’s recent bounce could be the start of a comeback - but it’s far from guaranteed. The eurozone is still grappling with growth concerns, and the ECB remains split on future policy moves. Over in Japan, the BOJ may yet temper its hawkish shift if inflation cools or economic risks mount.

Still, the policy divergence between the Fed, ECB, and BOJ is shrinking - and that’s not great news for the greenback. If the Fed cuts rates while other central banks hold firm or tighten, the dollar could remain under pressure well into the second half of the year.

For now, we’re in limbo. The dollar may have hit a short-term floor, but whether it can build a recovery from here depends on the next few data prints and how the central bank chessboard plays out. The EURUSD pair is showing some upward pressure, with the bullish narrative supported by volume bars showing weak sell volumes. Should we see an uptick, prices could encounter resistance walls at the $1.14271 and $1.15201 price levels. If we see a slump, prices could find support floors at the $1.10947 and $1.04114 price levels. 

Will the dollar bounce back ? You can speculate on the price trajectory of the EURUSD pair with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.

Bitcoin has done it again, defying expectations and surged to a fresh all-time high above $109,800. The crypto bulls are celebrating, but just as the party kicked off, a jolt from the bond market reminded everyone that traditional finance still holds the reins.

On 21 May, what should have been a routine US Treasury bond auction shook global markets. Bond yields spiked, equities stumbled, and Bitcoin? It hesitated. A new question is now front and centre: can Bitcoin keep climbing, or is a macroeconomic reality check about to catch up with it?

Bitcoin ETF inflows surge

Bitcoin (BTC) smashed through $109,800 this week, surpassing its previous record of $109,588. That’s a 47% rise from early April lows near $75,000, driven by a combination of institutional inflows, renewed ETF enthusiasm, and improving risk appetite as the US wrapped up key trade agreements.

It’s the second time in 2025 that BTC has set a fresh record, and the momentum hasn’t been limited to spot prices. Open interest in Bitcoin futures hit a record $75.14 billion, according to Coinglass - a strong indication that new capital continues to flow into crypto.

Fuel for the rally includes consistent demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen over $7.4 billion in net inflows over the past five weeks. On top of that, firms like financial intelligence provider Strategy are increasing their exposure, while Indonesian fintech firm DigiAsia Corp has announced plans to raise $100 million to establish a corporate Bitcoin treasury reserve.

On the surface, the bull run appeared unstoppable.

Then the bond market struck

Just as sentiment was peaking, the US Treasury’s $16 billion 20-year bond auction on 21 May showed signs of strain. Investor demand was noticeably weak, with the high yield coming in at 5.047%, above the expected 5.035%. That seemingly small gap - a 1.2 basis point “tail” - was the largest since December and a clear warning sign in bond market terms.

The impact was immediate:

• The S&P 500 fell by nearly 80 points within 30 minutes, dropping from 5,950 to 5,874.
  
• Bond yields across the curve surged, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.586% and the 30-year rising to 5.067%.

This wasn’t a technical blip - it signalled something deeper. Investors are growing uneasy about rising deficits, persistent inflation risks, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

Why this matters for Bitcoin prices

The crypto market doesn’t exist in isolation. It’s tightly linked to broader financial conditions. When bond yields rise sharply, it suggests money is becoming more expensive - and that typically spells trouble for speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Here’s what that means in practical terms:

• Higher yields boost the US dollar → Bitcoin often moves inversely to the dollar.
  
• Tighter financial conditions → reduce leverage and liquidity across all risk assets.
  
• Risk-off sentiment → leads investors to rotate out of crypto into more traditional “safe haven” assets.
  

Even if Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, psychology matters. When traders see cracks in the bond market, they become more cautious, and that caution can lead to selling.

The macro backdrop isn't helping Bitcoin

This bond market wobble didn’t appear out of nowhere. The US is dealing with a budget deficit running at 7% of GDP, stubborn inflation, and fresh trade war noise from President Trump, all of which raise the stakes.

The bond auction’s poor results effectively signaled that investors want a higher return for lending to the US government. That’s a red flag for global markets and a potential drag on Bitcoin’s momentum. As K33 Research noted, these macro pressures could bring more volatility, especially if upcoming crypto-focused events like Trump’s $TRUMP Gala fundraiser or VP JD Vance’s appearance at Bitcoin 2025 fall flat.

What crypto traders should be watching

This doesn’t necessarily mark the end of the bull run, but it’s a serious inflection point. Key signals to monitor now include:

• US Treasury yields - especially at the 10- and 20-year points.
  
• Inflation data and central bank commentary - to anticipate rate direction.
  
• ETF inflows - slowing demand here would be a concern.
  
• Bitcoin futures positioning - with open interest at record levels, volatility could spike quickly.
  

Bitcoin technical outlook: Further rally or reversal?

Bitcoin is still very much in a bullish trend. Institutions are coming in, ETFs are delivering inflows, and price action remains technically strong.

But this week’s bond market shock is a reminder that macro still matters. If yields continue rising and financial conditions tighten further, Bitcoin could lose altitude fast. For now, traders remain optimistic - but the rally is skating on thinner ice than it appears.

So the big question remains: is this just a wobble, or the start of something bigger? The next bond auction might tell us more.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s upside momentum is meeting some resistance, with a wick forming at the top of the up move. However, the volume tells a story of sellers not moving in with enough conviction which could lead to more upside. If sellers fail to force a reversal, buyers could struggle at the $112,000 price level that’s currently holding prices. If we see a slump, on the other hand, prices could find support floors at the $102,990 and $93,000 price levels. 

Will BTC keep soaring ? You can speculate on the price trajectory of Bitcoin with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.

It’s not just traders who are feeling the jitters. Oil and gold are starting to behave like the world is bracing for something more than a short-lived wobble, according to analysts. Rising prices in both markets are sending a clear signal: global uncertainty is back on centre stage, and investors are starting to take risk seriously again. 

With Middle East tensions flaring, macroeconomic anxiety building, and the U.S. dollar faltering after a credit rating downgrade, commodities are doing what they do best - reacting before the rest of the market catches up.

But here’s the interesting part. Reports say while oil is climbing on fears of disrupted supply, gold is moving on financial unease and a weakening dollar. It’s not one simple story,  it’s two converging narratives that suggest markets could be entering a prolonged risk cycle, where tension becomes the norm and defensive positioning takes the lead.

Oil’s new risk premium

Oil markets are once again sensitive to headlines - and not the kind anyone wants. Brent and U.S. crude futures both surged after reports emerged that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. While there’s no confirmed timeline or decision, just the possibility of such a move is enough to shake energy markets. Iran, after all, is OPEC’s third-largest producer and any military escalation involving it could spill over into the broader region.

There’s also the Strait of Hormuz to consider - that slim stretch of water through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows. If Iran were to retaliate or attempt to block this vital route, the knock-on effects on global supply would be immediate. Suddenly, the risk isn’t just hypothetical - it’s physical.

And yet, on the surface, the data looks oddly stable. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending 16 May, suggesting supply isn’t tight just yet. But dig a little deeper and the picture shifts. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, while distillates, used in diesel and heating oil, dropped by 1.4 million. 

Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery hub for U.S. futures, saw another drawdown too. So while oil is technically available, the composition of those inventories points to a market that’s not nearly as relaxed as the headline figures suggest.

This is what makes oil’s recent rally so compelling. It’s not about a supply crunch now - it’s about what could happen next. Markets are once again adding a risk premium for geopolitical tension, something we hadn’t seen in full force since early 2022.

Gold price outlook brightens amid dollar weakness

Gold, on the other hand, is playing its classic role: the safe-haven asset of choice. It jumped more than 1% recently, bolstered by a weakening U.S. dollar and lingering macroeconomic nerves. The trigger? Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit outlook, dropping it from “Aaa” to “Aa1”. That might not sound catastrophic, but psychologically, it rattled confidence in what has long been seen as the safest bet in global finance - U.S. debt.

Add to that a Federal Reserve that’s sounding increasingly cautious on the economy, and the dollar is starting to lose its shine. That’s a gift for gold, which becomes more attractive when the greenback softens. For non-U.S. buyers, gold is suddenly cheaper, and in a climate of rising uncertainty, that’s more than enough to revive interest.

Still, it’s not all plain sailing. Gold ETFs saw outflows of 30 tonnes last week, which is a fairly steep exit considering the strong inflows seen in April. 

That said, central bank demand remains steady, and there’s an ongoing, if slow, shift by some countries to reduce their reliance on dollar-denominated assets. In that broader context, gold’s appeal is more than just tactical. It’s strategic.

What’s more, geopolitical stress doesn’t hurt. 

Talks of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have surfaced again, but there’s little real progress. The EU and Britain announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the U.S., and Ukraine is calling for the G7 to tighten the price cap on Russian seaborne oil. Meanwhile, the conflict continues to cast a shadow over the global outlook, keeping a firm bid under safe-haven assets. If Israel were to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, a risk currently hanging in the background, gold could catch an additional tailwind as investors rush for cover.

Oil and gold: Two commodities, one message

Here’s where things get interesting. Oil and gold aren’t always in sync - in fact, they often move on different themes. Oil tends to reflect supply and demand dynamics, while gold responds to financial system sentiment. But right now, they’re both moving higher. That’s a rare signal.

Oil is telling us the world is getting riskier on the ground. Gold is telling us it’s getting riskier on the balance sheet. And together, they’re signalling that this isn’t just a temporary blip - it could be the start of a longer, more turbulent phase.

For investors, that means rethinking exposure. Are traditional asset classes pricing in enough risk? Are portfolios adequately hedged for a world where volatility might not be a moment, but a mood?

And for traders, it means opportunity - but also caution. Momentum can be fast and fierce when fear fuels the market, but the underlying trends here are complex and could evolve quickly. A ceasefire could cap oil, but a stubborn inflation print could lift gold. The cross-currents are strong.

Technical outlook for oil and gold markets: Prolonged risk cycle?

So, are oil and gold positioning for a prolonged risk cycle? The signs are pointing in that direction. We’re seeing not just reactionary moves, but a deeper re-rating of risk across the board. Whether it’s tension in the Middle East, economic doubts in the U.S., or stalled diplomacy in Eastern Europe, the stage is being set for commodities to reclaim their role as real-time risk indicators.

Gold is shining again. Oil is heating up. And markets, it seems, are no longer trading on hope - they’re trading on caution. 

At the time of writing, Oil is showing some buy-side pressure within a sell-zone, hinting at a potential drawdown. However, the volume bars paint a picture of sellers not yet moving in with conviction - making the case for a further price uptick. If the up move materialises, prices could encounter resistance walls at the $64.06 and $70.90 resistance levels.

Gold has also seen a significant uptick after a period of consolidation. Buy-side pressure is evident on the daily chart as bulls seek to reclaim the $3,330 mark. The volume bars indicating weak sell pressure also adds to the bullish narrative. Should we see a further uptick, prices could find resistance walls at the $3,435 and $3,500 resistance levels. If we see a significant drop, prices could find a support floor at the $3,190 support level.

Will oil and gold keep surging? You can speculate on the price trajectory of both commodities with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries were the undisputed refuge during times of market stress - predictable, liquid, and backed by the full faith of the federal government. But the world’s most trusted financial backstop is starting to look a bit shaky.

Moody’s just downgraded the U.S. credit rating, capping a years-long slide from fiscal discipline to mounting deficits and policy gridlock. The move didn’t shock the markets - but it did confirm what many had feared: America’s debt problem is no longer a future concern. 

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Japan is navigating its own storm. Sluggish growth, structural debt, and new U.S. tariffs. But unlike Washington, Tokyo is showing signs of restraint. With rate hikes still on the table and political leaders pushing back against pre-election spending sprees, Japan isn’t thriving,  but it is watching its step. 

When the world’s largest economy gets a red flag, could we be in for a global crisis?

Moody's rating downgrade: America’s perfect credit is gone 

On 16 May, late Friday evening and after markets had shut for the week, Moody’s quietly dropped a bombshell: it downgraded the United States’ sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The announcement capped a slow-burning trend, all three major ratings agencies have now cut America’s once-pristine status.

Their reasons are hard to dismiss. The U.S. national debt has crossed $36 trillion, and there’s no credible plan to rein it in. President Donald Trump’s new tax cut package, approved by a key committee after days of Republican infighting, could add up to $5.2 trillion to the deficit by 2034, according to some estimates. 

Yet Washington shows little interest in matching giveaways with spending restraint. Moody’s warned that “successive administrations have failed to reverse the trend of rising fiscal deficits and debt.” The agency doesn’t expect material improvement from any proposal currently on the table. In other words, the U.S. isn’t just in debt - it’s in denial.

US Treasury yields and bond market outlook

The market response was swift. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields briefly shot above 5%, while 10-year yields climbed by double digits. 

Rising yields are more than a footnote - they’re a signal that investors are demanding greater compensation for holding U.S. debt, which is no longer seen as bulletproof.

“We’re entering an era where fiscal recklessness actually costs something,” said one strategist. The return of so-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish governments for unsustainable policies - is no longer a theoretical threat. It’s happening.

The dollar, too, has begun to feel the pressure. While it hasn’t collapsed, it’s wobbling. The USD/JPY pair dropped below the key 145.00 mark, reflecting a stronger yen and a softer greenback. That shift is partly driven by diverging central bank paths - the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates later this year, while the Bank of Japan may tighten further.

But it’s also about trust. When the world’s “risk-free” asset gets downgraded, people start asking uncomfortable questions.

Japan’s cautious posture draws quiet attention

Japan, for its part, remains under considerable strain. The economy contracted by 0.7% (annualised) in the first quarter of 2025 - its first decline in a year. 

Structural issues persist, from demographic headwinds to a debt-to-GDP ratio that remains among the highest in the developed world. And fresh U.S. tariffs are adding another layer of uncertainty.

Even so, Japan’s policy stance has been comparatively measured. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is now signalling that further tightening remains on the table. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida noted this week that inflation could pick up again, and the central bank would respond accordingly.

On the fiscal side, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has taken a firm stance. He recently resisted calls to lower the consumption tax ahead of a key election, warning that Japan’s fiscal position remains fragile. His message wasn’t flashy - but it landed clearly with markets: short-term popularity won’t be bought at the expense of long-term stability.

This doesn’t imply strength, nor does it suggest that Japan is suddenly a model. But in a financial environment where discipline is once again being priced in, such signals carry weight.

Repricing risk in a changing landscape

Traditionally, when uncertainty rises, money flows into U.S. assets almost by default. But that reflex is weakening. Investors are now more willing to reassess assumptions that once went unquestioned.

The downgrade of U.S. debt hasn’t triggered a crisis - but it has removed a layer of comfort. With the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and fiscal outlooks worsening, the ground beneath “risk-free” assets feels less firm.

There’s also a practical consideration: if Japan continues to manage its own bond market through tightening, it may begin trimming its foreign holdings - including U.S. Treasuries, where it remains the second-largest holder. That could push U.S. yields higher still, adding to funding pressures already building in Washington.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY forecast

To be clear, no one’s saying the dollar will be dethroned overnight, or that Japan is poised to take over as the financial capital of the world. But perception matters. And right now, the perception that America always does the right thing in the end is starting to erode.

The irony is thick: Japan, long mocked for its stagnation, is becoming a symbol of discipline. America, once the poster child for fiscal strength, is now flirting with unsustainable debt, partisan paralysis, and credit downgrades.

The world is watching - and, increasingly, it’s hedging.

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is slumping towards the $144.00 mark. Sell-side bias is evident on the daily chart. However, the volume bars paint a picture of waning sell pressure, which could mean an uptick in prices. Should the pair continue to slump, prices could find a support floor at the $142.10 price level. If we see an uptick, prices could encounter resistance walls at the $145.51 and $148.29 price levels. 

Will the USDJPY pair continue to slide? You can speculate on the price trajectory of USDJPY with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.