Gold and silver are climbing at a pace that reflects more than a routine haven rally. Their surge has become the clearest expression of the so-called debasement trade - a shift by investors who believe political instability, widening fiscal risks, and weakening currencies are chipping away at real purchasing power. 

Silver futures have doubled this year, while gold is up more than 60%, signalling how widespread the flight into hard assets has become.

Copper’s record high above $11,400 per tonne adds weight to this shift, but it is gold and silver that best capture the market’s concern that volatile policy choices can distort the value of money itself. Their rise now hinges on a complex mix of supply constraints, tariff tensions, and expectations of easier monetary policy, setting the stage for a pivotal period ahead.

What’s driving gold and silver higher?

The forces behind the metals rally have intensified in recent months as the economic backdrop weakens. Labour data showing a 32,000 job loss in November - the first negative three-month employment trend since 2020 - has reinforced the sense that the US economy is slowing. 

Markets now expect a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, a shift that has pushed the dollar lower and strengthened the appeal of non-yielding assets. Treasury bill yields dipping below the Fed funds rate have added to the impression that policy is turning accommodative again.

Alongside these macro pressures comes a significant structural story, according to analysts. Silver is being driven not by speculative flows but by an extraordinary rise in physical demand, led by India’s imports of around 60 million ounces in October - four times last year’s levels. 

Executives describe this as the first period in decades when the physical market is determining price direction. Gold is experiencing its own structural push, with central banks buying 53 tonnes in October alone as countries such as Poland and Brazil diversify away from the US dollar. Supply constraints in both metals are tightening at the same time that demand is accelerating.

Why it matters

The rally in gold and silver is resonating beyond commodity markets because it reflects a broader erosion of confidence in major currencies. Bloomberg reports that the US dollar has fallen nearly 10% since President Trump took office, while the yen and euro have also weakened.

Investors are increasingly worried that erratic policy choices - from tariffs to budget standoffs - could undermine currency stability. Hard assets, such as gold and silver, have become the preferred hedge against this environment, anchoring portfolios where traditional currency hedges appear insufficient.

Some analysts push back on the narrative of broad debasement, arguing that continued global demand for US government debt contradicts claims of a meaningful shift away from the dollar. As one strategist observed, “If the dollar were truly being rejected, Treasury markets would be the first to show it.” Yet that reassurance has done little to stem renewed interest in metals, largely because they offer protection from policy missteps rather than from economic fundamentals alone.

Impact on markets and investors

The surge in silver is reshaping investor behaviour, with bars and coins increasingly treated as long-term holdings rather than trading assets. In the United States, much of the silver accumulated over the past 15 years has barely returned to the market, creating chronic tightness as industrial demand rises. Manufacturers in the solar, electronics, and automotive sectors are securing multi-year supply contracts to shield themselves from escalating costs and the risk of shortages.

Gold’s ascent is influencing both currency and bond markets as investors adjust to the prospect of lower US interest rates. While stronger jobs data last week lent temporary support to the dollar, most traders believe weakening financial conditions and rising geopolitical risks will sustain interest in gold. Trump’s comments on uncertainty surrounding Ukraine peace talks have reinforced a sense that geopolitical stability remains elusive, further boosting safe-haven flows.

Expert outlook

Most analysts expect gold and silver to remain supported into the early part of next year, though both face short-term sensitivity to inflation data and Treasury yields. Friday’s delayed US PCE report will be a critical test: a hotter reading could strengthen the dollar and temporarily cap gold’s advance. Even so, the broader direction of travel for policy points towards easing, which tends to underpin precious metals.

Silver’s outlook is underpinned by a deepening supply deficit, now in its fifth consecutive year and projected to reach up to 95 million ounces in 2025. Mine development leads times of a decade or more, and limited recycling capacity leaves the market exposed to further squeezes. India’s demand will remain a key variable; any sustained buying at current levels could push the market into even tighter territory. Gold, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from ongoing central-bank accumulation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Key takeaway

Gold and silver are rising on a cocktail of currency anxiety, political instability, and tightening physical supply. The debasement trade - once a fringe idea - is now shaping mainstream asset allocation as investors seek protection from unpredictable policy. Supply deficits in silver and renewed gold accumulation by central banks give the rally deeper foundations than many expected. Inflation data and the Fed’s next move will decide how firmly the trend holds into 2026.

Gold and silver technical insights

At the start of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,223, consolidating just beneath the key $4,240 resistance level. This zone, along with the higher $4,365 barrier, is where traders typically anticipate profit-taking or potential FOMO-driven buying if bullish momentum accelerates. On the downside, support sits at $4,035 and $3,935, and a break below either would likely trigger sell liquidations and a deeper corrective phase.

Price action remains constructive overall, with gold continuing to trade within the upper half of its Bollinger Band range - a sign that buyers still maintain control despite slowing upside momentum. The recent tight clustering of candles suggests the market is pausing rather than reversing, awaiting fresh catalysts to spark the next move.

The RSI, now around 76, is rising gradually above the midline, indicating sustained bullish momentum but edging closer to overbought territory. While this supports the ongoing uptrend, it also hints at limited upside unless gold can decisively clear the $4,240 resistance.

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $58.08, consolidating just below the key $58.69 resistance level. This area often attracts early profit-taking, although a clear break could invite fresh long positioning as momentum traders look to extend the rally. On the downside, support sits at $50.00 and $46.93, and a move beneath either would likely trigger sell liquidations and deepen any corrective swing. Traders using Deriv MT5 may find this range particularly active, as the metal’s elevated volatility continues to create sharper intraday swings.

Price action stays firmly bullish, with silver holding near the upper Bollinger Band following a steep rally. This behaviour underscores persistent buy-side interest even as the market pauses under resistance. With volatility elevated, many traders rely on tools such as the Deriv trading calculator to map margin requirements and calibrate position sizes before entering the next leg of the move.

The RSI is hovering around 78.5, sitting just below overbought territory and highlighting strong yet stretched momentum. That supports the broader uptrend but also hints at possible short-term pullbacks unless silver can break resistance convincingly. A decisive move above $58.69 would likely reset momentum and attract trend followers back into the market.

Gold’s pullback has gathered momentum this week, challenging a market that has rarely paused during its record-setting climb this year. Spot prices slipped to about $4,190 per ounce in Thursday’s Asian session as traders booked profits and shifted into defensive mode ahead of Friday’s delayed PCE release - the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve relies on more than any other.

The tension is clear. Markets now assign a nearly 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next week, yet uncertainty surrounding inflation has held back fresh buyers. With real yields easing, the dollar weakening, and central banks quietly amassing gold, the question dominating the market is whether the PCE print will supply the spark required for gold’s next decisive move.

What’s driving gold?

The latest slide reflects a cooling of momentum rather than a shift in the underlying trend. Gold is coming off an extraordinary run, having gained more than 60% year-to-date and broken above $4,000 for the first time only last month. 

After such rapid gains, even modest profit-taking can create significant intraday swings, particularly among traders who are reluctant to increase exposure before the Federal Open Market Committee confirms its next policy step. 

The ADP employment report, revealing a 32,000 drop in private payrolls - the sharpest fall in more than two and a half years - underscores concerns about a softening labour market and fuels expectations of further easing.

Pressure on the US dollar has added another layer to the story. Rumours that White House adviser Kevin Hassett could replace Jerome Powell pushed the greenback to its weakest level since October, with the Dollar Index sliding to 98.86. 

A softer dollar typically supports gold, but the metal’s reaction has been muted as investors await stronger direction from macroeconomic data. Until PCE confirms a sustained cooling of inflation, traders appear unwilling to chase fresh highs.

Why it matters

This pullback is significant because it highlights how closely gold is now tied to monetary policy expectations. Real yields dipped to about 1.83%, down three basis points, offering a natural tailwind for bullion. Yet the reluctance of traders to act shows how sensitive the market has become to even minor shifts in inflation expectations. 

ANZ strategist Soni Kumari argued this week that “the market needs a fresh trigger” to extend the rally, and that any slide towards $4,000 would likely attract a new wave of strategic buying.

Gold’s behaviour also reflects deepening investor scepticism about the balance of risks in the US economy. The ISM Services PMI held at 52.6, suggesting pockets of resilience, but slowing orders and weak employment highlight an uneven backdrop. 

At the same time, with US fiscal concerns rising and the dollar losing momentum, gold has become a preferred hedge for institutions seeking insulation from policy uncertainty and currency volatility.

Impact on markets and investors

Financial markets are already recalibrating in anticipation of lower rates. Money markets price about an 87% chance of a December cut and nearly 89 basis points of easing by late 2026, implying a Fed Funds Rate of around 2.99%. 

This repricing has dragged the 10-year Treasury yield to roughly 4.06%, reinforcing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Lower real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and strengthen its role as a core portfolio diversifier.

The impact is equally visible in structural flows. Central banks purchased a net 53 tonnes of gold in October - the strongest month of buying so far in 2025, according to the World Gold Council. Poland’s renewed accumulation led the trend, but the message is broader: reserve managers are diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets at a growing pace. For private investors, this creates a floor under prices during moments of market hesitation.

What makes this moment particularly important is the disconnect between short-term caution and long-term optimism. While traders trim their exposure ahead of the PCE, institutional surveys indicate that nearly 70% of global investors expect gold to rise again next year. This combination of tactical indecision and strategic conviction suggests that any data-driven trigger could set off a renewed push higher.

Expert outlook

Analysts remain broadly constructive on gold’s medium-term trajectory. Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach about $4,900 by the end of 2026, arguing that “sticky purchases”, particularly from central banks, are driving a structural revaluation of the asset. Its recent poll of more than 900 clients found that the largest share - 36% - foresee gold above $5,000 by 2026, with only a small minority expecting a retreat below $4,000.

JPMorgan shares this bullish view, projecting prices around $5,055 in the final quarter of 2026, while Morgan Stanley sees the yellow metal at $4,400 by the end of next year. That said, analysts caution that the path will be uneven. Friday’s PCE release, next week’s FOMC meeting, and jobless claims data will shape the immediate narrative. Markets are looking for confirmation that inflation remains on a slower trajectory; if the data cooperate, gold’s next surge may arrive sooner than expected.

Key takeaway

Gold’s pullback reflects caution rather than a change in its fundamental trajectory. Real yields are easing, the dollar is under pressure, and central banks continue to buy aggressively - all factors that support higher prices. The PCE Index now stands as the pivotal data release, capable of shaping expectations for next week’s Fed decision and determining whether gold’s next surge begins. Traders will be watching closely for confirmation that inflation is cooling and the rate-cut cycle is firmly underway.

Gold technical insights

At the start of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,190, easing slightly after failing to break above the $4,240 resistance level. This zone, along with the higher $4,365 resistance, is where traders typically look for profit-taking or FOMO-driven buying if momentum strengthens. On the downside, the nearest supports sit at $4,035 and $3,935 - with a break below either likely to trigger sell liquidations and deepen the correction.

Price action remains constructive overall, as gold continues to hold above its key support levels despite extended overbought conditions in previous sessions. The slight loss of upside steam suggests the market may be entering a short consolidation phase while waiting for new catalysts such as inflation data or central-bank commentary.

The RSI, previously deep in overbought territory, is now dipping towards the midline near 70, signalling that bullish momentum is cooling but not fully reversing. Meanwhile, the MACD remains positive, though its histogram is gradually flattening - another sign of slowing momentum rather than outright weakness. Overall, gold retains a bullish bias, but upside may be limited unless price can confidently break above $4,240.

The battle for AI profitability in 2025 is unfolding along two very different economic frontiers. Microsoft is increasing average revenue per user by embedding Copilot deeply into its subscription stack, while Nvidia is capturing extraordinary margins from the hardware required to support the AI boom. 

Both companies are riding the same wave, yet each extracts value from a different layer of the ecosystem. The question now is whether software monetisation or compute dominance ultimately delivers the stronger upside as enterprise AI spending matures.

Early signals show both models accelerating. Microsoft reported 18% year-on-year revenue growth in its latest quarter, driven partly by Copilot’s integration into Microsoft 365. Nvidia’s reported three-year, 960% share price surge reflects insatiable demand for its Blackwell GPUs and CUDA stack. The next phase of AI adoption will show whether recurring subscription revenue or high-margin infrastructure economics holds the edge, according to market watchers.

ARPU vs GPU economics - The simple breakdown 

Understanding the divide between Microsoft and Nvidia starts with a straightforward analogy, many analysts noted: who makes more money during a gold rush-the miners selling shiny nuggets, or the merchants selling the picks and shovels? 

Microsoft is effectively selling the “finished” AI experience through Copilot: the productivity boost, the task automation, the chat interfaces that workers interact with every day. Each subscriber adds to Microsoft’s average revenue per user (ARPU), so the economic engine depends on millions of customers paying a bit more each month.

Nvidia is the pick-and-shovel merchant, according to analysts. Every AI model-from chatbots to Copilot itself, runs on GPUs that train, infer and serve billions of queries. The economics are completely different: instead of collecting small monthly fees from users, Nvidia earns large, upfront, high-margin revenue from hyperscalers buying hardware in vast quantities. 

When AI adoption accelerates, GPU demand explodes; when budgets tighten, orders pause just as dramatically. Both companies profit from the same AI trend, but one generates revenue each month through subscriptions, while the other earns money when the world needs more computational horsepower.

What’s driving Microsoft Copilot ARPU vs Nvidia GPU economics 

Microsoft has repositioned AI as a default layer of productivity, not an optional add-on. Reports showed the company’s decision to fold the £20 Copilot Pro subscription into a £19.99 Microsoft 365 Premium plan drives uptake, reduces churn, and materially increases ARPU. This shift occurs in a market already primed for higher SaaS prices, as sector-wide subscriptions rose 11.4% in 2025, surpassing G7 inflation several times over. 

Copilot is becoming the centrepiece of Microsoft’s long-term revenue story, tightly binding AI utility to the daily workflows of its global base. Nvidia’s economics are powered by scarcity and scale. Generative AI has pushed demand for compute to historic highs, and Nvidia sits at the centre with its Blackwell GPU architecture and CUDA ecosystem. Hyperscalers rely on Nvidia for model training and inference, while a new partnership with Palantir pulls the company deeper into enterprise operational workflows. 

Experts expressed this marks a shift from being the engine behind AI model development to a full-stack infrastructure provider supporting defence, healthcare, logistics and advanced analytics. Such breadth is expanding Nvidia’s total addressable market well beyond conventional silicon cycles.

Why it matters

Copilot’s monetisation model introduces both growth and fragility, according to analysts. Subscription inflation within the SaaS sector is drawing scrutiny as consumers question whether bundled AI tools consistently deliver meaningful value. Adobe and Google have faced similar scepticism after 16%–33% price adjustments tied to generative features. 

One strategist put it bluntly this week: “the market is no longer willing to pay AI premiums without immediate productivity returns”. Microsoft must prove Copilot enhances real-world output at a pace that justifies higher prices.

Reports also revealed that Nvidia operates at a different pressure point. Its revenues are now a barometer for global AI investment, making the stock highly sensitive to any hint of slowing hyperscale demand. That dynamic was evident when rumours surfaced that Microsoft had cut targets for its AI agent products; AI shares from Nvidia to Micron fell sharply before Microsoft clarified the situation. Investors increasingly treat Nvidia as the pulse of enterprise AI budgets, meaning sentiment swings can be swift.

Impact on the industry, markets and consumers 

Across the software industry, AI-powered pricing is reshaping economic expectations. By locking Copilot inside core Microsoft 365 bundles, Microsoft has effectively legitimised double-digit subscription increases. 

Reported movements of competitors, including Slack, Salesforce, and Adobe showed they are following this path, swapping optional AI upgrades for compulsory rebrands with higher monthly fees. Consumers - especially creatives and SMEs - are pushing back, questioning whether tools like Firefly or Acrobat AI Assistant warrant the rising costs.

Market behaviour has begun reflecting this divide. Value stocks gained momentum when Microsoft’s AI quota scare briefly knocked confidence in high-multiple tech names. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s deepening integration with Palantir signals a strategic widening of compute-driven AI applications, from supply-chain modelling to advanced defence systems. This diversification not only supports GPU demand but bolsters Nvidia’s positioning as the backbone of agentic, real-time AI decision-making.

For consumers, pricing models remain the flashpoint. Subscription fatigue is spreading as AI features, once marketed as optional, become unavoidable. Hybrid structures that mix subscriptions with AI credits offer some relief, yet introduce new complexity and potential unpredictability. The perceived mismatch between cost and practical value is the core risk facing the SaaS sector.

Expert outlook 

According to analystrs, two scenarios define the AI profit landscape in 2025. If enterprises adopt AI agents at scale, Microsoft’s ARPU expansion could continue to be a reliable growth engine. With 66% of CEOs reporting operational benefits from Copilot deployments, early productivity returns appear genuine. Yet the backlash against forced bundling means Microsoft must demonstrate sustained value rather than rely on pricing power alone.

Nvidia’s trajectory hinges on hyperscaler spending and competitive pressure. While demand for GPUs remains fierce, rivals such as Google and Amazon are increasing investment in custom AI chips. 

Google’s £10 billion TPU partnership with Anthropic signals a meaningful shift toward in-house compute strategies. Even so, Nvidia’s expansion into operational AI through Palantir may insulate the company by embedding its hardware into mission-critical enterprise systems with long replacement cycles.

Investors will track enterprise AI budgets, regulatory commentary on compute intensity and the Federal Reserve’s next steps. These factors will determine whether software ARPU or hardware economics proves more resilient.

Key takeaway 

Microsoft and Nvidia represent two dominant pathways to AI profitability: recurring software monetisation and capital-intensive compute economics. Copilot’s ARPU uplift demonstrates how software firms are extracting value through bundling, while Nvidia’s GPU dominance reveals the physical backbone that enables the AI boom. Both face pressure - Microsoft from consumer fatigue, Nvidia from escalating competition and hyperscaler caution. The deciding factor in 2025 will be how quickly enterprises scale AI beyond experimentation and into daily operations.

Microsoft vs Nvidia technical insights

At the start of writing, Microsoft (MSFT) is trading around $478, attempting to stabilise after its recent decline. The nearest support level sits at $472.20, and a break below this level could trigger sell liquidations and open the door to deeper downside movement. On the upside, the stock faces two notable resistance zones at $510.00 and $530.00, where traders may look for profit-taking; however, a strong breakout above these levels would hint at a return of bullish momentum.

Recent price action indicates a market in consolidation, with MSFT struggling to regain altitude after the sharp decline from its early November highs. Candles remain mixed, showing hesitation as buyers and sellers vie for control.

The RSI has dipped slightly below the midline to around 52, signalling weakening momentum and a cautious tone among traders. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains negative, although the bars have begun to shorten, suggesting that bearish momentum may be waning. Altogether, the indicators suggest a market waiting for a catalyst - with direction likely to depend on broader tech sentiment and upcoming macro data.

At the start of writing, NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading around $179.66, holding just above the immediate $179.65 support zone. A break below this level could trigger sell liquidations and expose the next major support at $174.70. On the upside, the price faces two key resistance levels at $200.00 and $208.00, both zones where traders may begin to take profits, although a strong breakout above either would signal renewed bullish momentum.

Recent price action reflects hesitation, with candles clustering tightly and volatility narrowing. This signals that NVDA is waiting for a catalyst - likely a macroeconomic data release or a shift in tech-sector sentiment - to dictate its next direction.

Momentum indicators also highlight the indecision. The RSI is flat at the midline around 51, indicating neutral sentiment with neither bulls nor bears in clear control. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains negative, although the bars are gradually shortening, suggesting a potential shift toward bullish momentum if buying pressure increases. Overall, NVDA sits at a crossroads, with upcoming moves in tech likely to determine whether it retests resistance or slides toward support.

OpenAI has just triggered its highest internal alarm. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, Sam Altman sent a company-wide “Code Red” memo - the first full red alert in OpenAI’s history - and told everyone to drop everything that isn’t making ChatGPT dramatically better, right now. This is the clearest signal yet that OpenAI feels its lead slipping.

With $9 billion in projected 2025 losses dwarfing $13 billion in revenue, OpenAI’s AI empire seems teetering, according to reports.

The memo that broke the internet

Altman didn't mince words in his Monday dispatch: OpenAI is in "red" mode, escalating from a milder "orange" alert just weeks ago. 

• Faster, smarter responses: Quicker load times, fewer hallucinations, and the kind of reliability that doesn't make you want to chuck your phone.
• Deeper personalisation: ChatGPT should "feel intuitive and personal," per head Nick Turley-think less generic bot, more creepy-accurate mind reader.
• Broader brainpower: Handling weirder queries without the "I'm sorry, Dave" cop-out, plus better reasoning across the board.

To make it happen? According to Altman, through daily war-room calls with product, research, and engineering leads. Team swaps encouraged. No sacred cows - except the cash cow that's starting to cough. This follows an "orange" warning in October, but red means business: full resource reallocation to stem the user bleed.

What ‘Code Red’ actually changes? 

Altman’s leaked memo reveals that OpenAI is scrambling to address ChatGPT’s speed and reliability issues, following Google’s Gemini 3, which landed a significant blow.

Source: Forbes, HSBC, Techcrunch

Add Anthropic's Claude 4 (enterprise darling, leading in quality for business) and Meta's freewheeling Llama models, and OpenAI's 70% market share feels like a polite fiction. Even Salesforce's Marc Benioff ditched ChatGPT for Gemini after a two-hour test: "The leap is insane."

Silver lining? A new model drops soon

Further reports revealed OpenAI's shipping a "brand-new reasoning model" (whispers of "o3-pro" or "Orion") next week. If it lands, expect a user exodus reversal, potentially reclaiming benchmark crowns in reasoning, coding, and math. 

Vp and head of ChatGPT app, Nick Turley summed it up on X: "Our focus now is to keep making ChatGPT more capable... while making it feel even more intuitive and personal." OpenAI's mum on the memo, but actions scream louder. He added that, with 220M paying users projected by 2030, the stakes are sky-high.

Analysts say this scramble could refocus a distracted giant - or expose cracks too wide to patch. In the AI arms race, today's leader is tomorrow's cautionary tale market watchers expressed. 

Why this matters

Experts expressed a Code Red at OpenAI is not just an internal fire drill - it’s a sign of an industry reaching a critical inflection point. OpenAI has enjoyed a year-long head start, but Gemini 3’s surge, Anthropic’s enterprise dominance, and Meta’s rapid open-source advances have narrowed the gap at alarming speed. When the world’s most valuable AI company panics publicly, it signals deeper competitive and financial pressure across the entire sector.

To many, the memo also reflects a transition from model hype to product performance. This means users increasingly care less about which model is “smartest” in benchmarks and more about latency, reliability, cost, and personalisation - areas where ChatGPT has recently fallen behind. It was added that if OpenAI cannot regain trust quickly, corporate adoption, investor confidence, and user loyalty could swing elsewhere within months.

Key takeaway

OpenAI’s Code Red marks the company’s most serious pivot since ChatGPT’s launch - a forced return to fundamentals as rivals accelerate, according to experts. The next few weeks will determine whether a new reasoning model can stabilise user numbers and restore OpenAI’s leadership, or whether Gemini, Claude, and Llama permanently reshape the competitive landscape. The AI race is no longer about who launched first - it’s about who adapts fastest.

‍

Bitcoin’s climb back above $92,000 has revived a debate that has followed every major reversal in this cycle: is the market simply correcting an oversold slide, or has a new phase of institutional and macro-driven momentum begun? 

The rebound unfolded after a bruising stretch that saw bitcoin fall towards the $80,000–$82,000 region, triggered by a BOJ-spurred risk-off move, a DeFi exploit and a wave of leveraged liquidations. By the time it reclaimed $92,000, traders were watching a broader alignment of forces rather than a single headline.

The breakout also arrived as expectations for a December rate cut climbed sharply. Prediction markets now price an 87% chance of a 25 bps cut, adding a powerful macro undertone to a market already conditioned to respond to shifts in liquidity. 

Against that backdrop, institutional signals - including Vanguard’s policy reversal, Bank of America’s guidance on portfolio allocations and rising demand across crypto-linked ETFs - have collectively amplified the sense that bitcoin is being pulled back into broader market conversations.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s break above $92K?

The rebound is the product of several overlapping catalysts. Rate-cut expectations have surged in recent weeks as softer US labour data and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials pushed markets toward a consensus that monetary easing could begin at the December meeting.

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity expectations remains one of its most consistent behavioural traits, and the shift has helped rebuild confidence after November’s sell-off. Institutional positioning has also been evolving in ways that matter for market structure. 

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded $3.7 billion in trading volume - surpassing Vanguard’s own S&P 500 ETF - as investors sought liquid exposure during the rebound. Bank of America’s statement, suggesting that wealthy clients could allocate 1-4% of their assets to digital assets, added to the momentum. 

Vanguard’s decision to allow trading in bitcoin ETFs is meaningful, but it is part of a broader pattern of once-cautious institutions adjusting to client demand, rather than a lone trigger for the rally.

Why it matters

The combination of macro and structural forces makes this moment different from a standard relief rally. Bitcoin’s recovery follows a 36% peak-to-trough decline from its October high near $126,000, leaving conditions oversold and positioning cleansed. 

BTIG highlighted that November is historically a period where the market tends to bottom before strengthening into year-end, and the technical backdrop aligns closely with that pattern. The interplay between rate-cut expectations and washed-out positioning has given the rebound a more durable feel.

Traders monitoring the rebound on Deriv MT5 will have noticed how the recent downswing created cleaner structure and clearer reaction points, making it easier to track whether the current move is building genuine momentum or simply retracing.

Institutional sentiment is shifting in ways that could affect market depth for months. Brian Huang of Glider noted that firms long considered “old-school” in their investment approach are adapting because client demand for digital assets has persisted through volatility. This softening attitude is just as important as any single announcement. It widens the funnel for inflows and normalises bitcoin exposure at a time when the macro environment may be turning more supportive.

For traders managing position size, tools like the Deriv Trading Calculator help quantify risk levels as volatility rises and support levels are tested.

Impact on markets and investors

Bitcoin’s rise back above $92,000 reshaped risk behaviour across related markets. ETF volumes surged as traders rotated into liquid vehicles, while crypto equities responded unevenly. 

Bitcoin-exposed stocks rallied with the rebound, but mining firms continued to struggle - a sign that investors are differentiating more sharply between pure price exposure and businesses with operational risks. This divergence underlines how the market is becoming more selective rather than uniformly bullish.

For traders, the recovery has highlighted the role of leverage as both a driver and a risk, according to analysts. The early-December drop below $90,000 exposed the fragility of overextended positioning, triggering hundreds of millions in liquidations. While the subsequent rebound stabilised sentiment, the market still faces a narrow path between constructive momentum and another forced unwind. 

Investors will be watching whether open interest rises steadily from current levels - which would support the move - or accelerates too quickly and reintroduces instability.

Expert outlook

Analysts remain split on whether bitcoin’s recovery marks the beginning of a new phase or simply a technical correction. BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky believes the oversold conditions and seasonal patterns point to a “reflex rally” with room to reach toward $100,000. 

The call is explicitly tactical, acknowledging that the broader trend remains contested and dependent on macroeconomic confirmation.

Longer-term expectations tilt more decisively bullish. Huang argues that while “near-term pain may not be over”, the medium-term trajectory still points toward bitcoin eventually reaching the $150,000 region, assuming structural demand continues to build. The Federal Reserve’s December meeting now stands as the next major junction. 

A clean 25 bps cut may validate the current rebound, while a hold or hawkish language could flatten momentum. ETF flows, leverage conditions and the absence of further security incidents will determine whether this recovery matures into a broader cycle shift.

BTC technical insights

At the start of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading just below $93,000, continuing its rebound from the key $84,000 support level - a zone where further declines would likely trigger sell liquidations. The recovery now brings BTC closer to the $105,000 and $116,000 resistance levels. Both areas may attract profit-taking, while any breakout above them could spark FOMO-driven buying as bullish sentiment returns.

The recent upswing also marks a shift in short-term momentum after a prolonged downtrend. Candles are now clustering above prior lows, suggesting sellers are losing control as buyers slowly regain traction.

The RSI has jumped sharply above the midline toward the 60 area, signalling improving bullish momentum after hovering in weaker territory. While still comfortably below overbought levels, this sharp rise indicates strengthening demand and suggests the rebound may have room to continue - provided BTC can hold above its nearest support.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s move above $92,000 is best understood as the intersection of several forces: shifting macro expectations, evolving institutional acceptance, and a significant technical reset after a steep correction. No single catalyst explains the rebound. Instead, the market is responding to a confluence of supportive signals at a time when positioning has reset, and liquidity may be turning more favourable. The next major test comes with the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, which will determine whether this recovery extends or stalls.

The dollar is being squeezed from both sides of the FX spectrum, forcing traders to reassess familiar year-end dynamics. USDJPY has managed to lift off a two-week low near 154.65 despite rising expectations that the Bank of Japan could deliver a December rate hike - a shift that pushed two-year JGB yields to 1% for the first time since 2008. 

EURUSD, meanwhile, holds steady at the moment, as the dollar index remains around 99.48, threatening a move toward 100.50 if sentiment shifts. This split - a yen supported by policy momentum and a euro holding under broad-dollar positioning - places the greenback at the centre of the pressure. 

With the Fed’s meeting approaching and Japan signalling further normalisation, the next few sessions will decide whether USDJPY can stay anchored above 155 or whether EURUSD’s price action becomes the dominant narrative into year-end.

What’s driving the two pairs’ moves?

Dollar trading is caught between two competing forces. On one side, weak US data has pulled Treasury yields lower, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.2 and Fed rate-cut odds for December are at 87.2%. 

That should, in theory, drag USDJPY down. Yet risk appetite has firmed across Asian equities, limiting the yen’s safe-haven bid and softening the impact of a more hawkish BoJ. This explains why USDJPY has bounced back toward 156 despite the strongest signals in years that Japan may raise rates.

The EURUSD has held above 1.16, despite the pressure on the dollar. Traders are watching whether the dollar index can hold above 99.40, a level that would make the euro more vulnerable to a test of 1.1550. 

Seasonal patterns would normally favour the euro in early and late December, but seasonality struggles for relevance when policy and yield differentials are driving direction.

Why it matters

The dollar squeeze affects more than currency traders. Multinationals hedge their year-end exposures during December, making sharp FX swings particularly disruptive. When USDJPY hovers near 156–158, and EURUSD edges toward 1.1550, corporate hedging models start tightening, often triggering mechanical flows that amplify intraday volatility. One Tokyo-based strategist told Bloomberg this week that “fundamentals and flows are clashing at the worst possible moment,” highlighting how thin liquidity magnifies each incremental move.

For traders, the stakes are even higher. A BoJ rate hike would reverse decades of ultra-loose policy and could send USDJPY sharply lower. Conversely, a softer-than-expected Fed tone may weaken the dollar broad-based and accelerate the euro’s rebound. Both outcomes are plausible, which is why markets are becoming hypersensitive to each data point ahead of the Fed and BoJ decisions.

Impact on markets and traders

Yield dynamics remain the clearest transmission channel. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, which has climbed to a 17-year high, has narrowed the spread with US Treasuries significantly. 

That, according to analysts, reduces one of the structural supports for USDJPY, which explains why the pair struggled to extend its gains above 158 earlier in the quarter. Traders now see the 156 price level as the pivot that will decide whether the latest rebound fades or extends.

EURUSD faces its own structural constraints. The rebound in German yields should lend support to the euro; yet, the pair continues to track shifts in the dollar index more closely than domestic developments. 

According to analysts, a firm break below 1.16 raises the risk of a slide toward 1.1550, and models warn of flash-risk conditions that could push the pair near 1.1500 in thin liquidity. December’s typical euro strength from 22–27 December may help stabilise momentum, but it rarely persists when major policy events intersect with seasonal flows.

Expert outlook

Analysts remain divided on how the dollar squeeze will be resolved. Some expect USDJPY to soften into year-end if the BoJ signals confidence in its inflation outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda has already pointed out that the likelihood of inflation meeting the 2% target is rising, and traders are now pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a December hike. A move of that magnitude would pull USDJPY quickly toward 152, and perhaps 150 if intervention chatter intensifies.

EURUSD’s path hinges almost entirely on the Fed. A December rate cut is nearly fully priced, leaving the dollar vulnerable to a hawkish surprise. If the Fed resists committing to a series of cuts, the dollar could bounce, pushing EURUSD back toward 1.1650 before sellers return. The key is whether the PCE data before the meeting shifts expectations again - or whether the Fed lets markets run ahead of it for now.

USDJPY technical insights

At the start of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 155.77, attempting to stabilise after its recent pullback. The pair remains capped by the 157.40 resistance level - a key zone where profit-taking typically emerges, but a breakout above it could reignite bullish momentum. Immediate downside levels to watch sit at 154.54 and 151.75; a break below either would signal weakening trend strength and could trigger sell liquidations as price slips through the lower Bollinger structure.

Despite the retracement, USD/JPY continues to trade within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact for now. The pair may continue consolidating unless a fresh macroeconomic driver, such as U.S. yields or Bank of Japan commentary, pushes it decisively in either direction.

The RSI has bounced sharply to 64, rising just above the midline after briefly dipping lower. This shift indicates an improvement in bullish momentum, although it has not yet reached overbought levels. The indicator currently supports the idea of a stabilising trend, with room for upside if buyers regain control.

EURUSD technical insights

At the start of writing, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.1614, gradually pushing toward the key 1.1650 resistance zone. This level has repeatedly capped upside moves, making it an area where traders may expect profit-taking or a potential bullish breakout if momentum continues to accelerate. On the downside, immediate supports lie at 1.1550 and 1.1500, with a break below either likely to trigger sell liquidations and extend bearish pressure.

Price remains contained within the upper half of the Bollinger Band range, signalling a modest bullish bias but not yet a decisive trend shift. The pair continues to oscillate within a broad consolidation structure, suggesting that macro catalysts - such as U.S. data or ECB commentary - may be needed to drive a sustained breakout.

The RSI sits flat just above 51, showing neutral-to-slightly bullish momentum. This positioning reinforces the idea of steady but cautious buying interest, with room for further upside if EUR/USD can break cleanly above resistance.

Key takeaway

The dollar is being squeezed from both ends of the FX spectrum as USDJPY wrestles with BoJ tightening expectations and EURUSD absorbs broad-based dollar positioning. Yield shifts and upcoming central-bank decisions will determine which narrative dominates into year-end. Traders should expect volatility as thin liquidity meets major policy risks. The next moves in USDJPY and EURUSD may well define the early 2026 landscape.

Bitcoin sliding below $87,000 feels like the start of a new crypto winter, but the evidence suggests a more brutal, macro-driven reset than the opening chapter of a multi-year freeze. Analysts report that after reaching above $126,000 in October, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has dropped more than 30% in a matter of weeks, with over $200 billion wiped from the broader market as Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies fell 5–10% in a single session

That kind of move is painful and late-cycle, yet it still sits within the range of a violent correction in a long bull phase rather than a definitive turn into a deep, grinding bear market. What has changed is the backdrop. A sharp spike in Japanese bond yields, the slow unwinding of the yen carry trade, record ETF outflows and heavy derivatives liquidations have collided to drain liquidity from one of the most leveraged corners of global markets. 

Whether this becomes a full-blown crypto winter depends less on Bitcoin itself and more on how far global funding costs rise, how quickly investors de-risk, and whether institutional buyers see this as a buying opportunity or a reason to step back further.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s latest slide?

Bitcoin’s drawdown is being driven by macro forces that sit far outside the blockchain. Japan’s government bond market has jolted higher, with 10-year yields surging towards 1.84–1.85% and two-year yields touching 1% for the first time since 2008 after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled a possible rate hike at the 18–19 December meeting. 

That shift threatens to unwind the yen carry trade, where investors have borrowed cheaply in yen for decades and deployed capital into higher-yielding assets worldwide, including US bonds, equities and crypto. According to analysts, as Japanese yields rise and the yen strengthens, those trades become more expensive to sustain, forcing capital back home and reducing global liquidity.

Crypto sits at the sharp end of that adjustment. Over the last major leg down, total market capitalisation dropped by roughly 5% in 24 hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both sliding over 5%. Thousands of traders were liquidated as some $600–$640 million in leveraged positions were wiped out. 

The immediate trigger was a break of support around the high $80,000s, which triggered stop-loss orders and margin calls on overextended long positions. The result was not a slow fade but a cascade: macro stress hit Japanese bonds, risk sentiment cracked, and leverage in the crypto complex did the rest.

Why it matters

As per experts, this episode is significant because it confirms Bitcoin's position in the global hierarchy of assets. Despite talk of “digital gold”, the market continues to treat BTC as a high-beta macro trade, extremely sensitive to shifts in liquidity and funding costs. When traditional markets move into “risk-off” mode, crypto is one of the first places investors reduce exposure. 

The current sell-off is unfolding alongside growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, record Treasury issuance, and the end of ultra-loose Japanese policy, which together signal that the post-2008 era of cheap leverage is being repriced.

It also lays bare the limits of the new institutional architecture around Bitcoin. Reports indicate that spot ETFs in the United States, which were hailed as the bridge between crypto and mainstream finance, have just recorded their worst month since launch, with around $3.5 billion in net outflows and repeated days of heavy redemptions. 

The flagship IBIT fund alone saw withdrawals exceeding $500 million on its worst single day and more than $2.4 billion over the month, despite remaining one of the most successful ETFs globally in terms of assets and fees. That suggests institutional capital is willing to exit quickly when macro conditions turn, even if it remains structurally interested in Bitcoin over the long run.

Impact on markets, industry and investors

The ETF complex sits at the heart of how this correction is being transmitted. Analysts report that after months of near-constant inflows, the tide has turned: five straight weeks of net redemptions in November, a single day with roughly $900 million heading for the exits, and a notable change in tone from “buy every dip” to “wait for clarity”. 

Bitcoin ETFs still hold over $70 billion in assets and represent a significant share of the total supply, so when they move in one direction for several weeks, they significantly influence price discovery, extending far beyond crypto-native exchanges.

The pressure is broad but uneven across the digital-asset space. Spot Ether ETFs registered around $1.4 billion in outflows over the month, marking their weakest stretch on record, while Solana products experienced more than 20 days of inflows before a new ETF launch led to a sizable single-day withdrawal. XRP vehicles, by contrast, have yet to see any net outflows and have accumulated hundreds of millions in fresh capital, whereas Dogecoin products have disappointed with muted debut volumes. The pattern suggests investors are becoming more selective, rotating away from crowded trades and towards assets perceived as having stronger or cleaner narratives.

On the trading side, the absence of aggressive dip-buyers has been striking. In prior corrections, lower prices were quickly met with demand from both retail and institutional desks eager to “buy the blood”. This time, nervousness ahead of key US data, Federal Reserve communication and the Bank of Japan’s meeting has kept many on the sidelines. With fewer standing bids under the market, leveraged positions have been unwound more violently. That has turned Bitcoin’s usual volatility into something closer to a macro shock absorber for the entire crypto complex.

Expert outlook

Analysts are divided on whether this marks the start of a true crypto winter or a severe shakeout within an ongoing cycle. On one side is the argument that Bitcoin’s surge above $120,000 was always stretched, fuelled by easy liquidity, ETF hype and a reach for yield in a world still adjusting to higher rates. 

From that perspective, a 30% pullback that resets froth and flushes out leverage is not unusual within a broader bull market, especially for an asset as volatile as BTC. The $80,000–$85,000 band now stands out as a key support zone; if it holds and macro conditions stabilise, the recent drop may be remembered as a sharp correction rather than the start of a bear market.

The more bearish camp focuses on the structural shift in global funding. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates and the yen carry trade unwinds more broadly, liquidity could tighten across risk assets for longer than crypto bulls expect, according to analysts. Combined with heavy US debt issuance, a slowing Chinese economy and more cautious central banks, that scenario would leave less room for speculative excess across the board. In that world, Bitcoin might need to reprice to a level that reflects not just its supply schedule and adoption, but also a higher global cost of capital.

What both sides acknowledge is that the days of free money are over. The post-2008 bond bull market, where yields ground lower and leverage got cheaper year after year, looks to have ended. For Bitcoin, that creates a tension between its narrative and its behaviour. It still aspires to be a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement, yet in practice it trades like an amplified expression of risk sentiment. The next year will reveal whether institutional holders are prepared to keep allocating through a choppier macro regime, or whether they treat BTC as just another trade to exit when the cost of carry rises.

Bitcoin technical insights

At the start of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has slipped back toward $85,800, losing momentum after a brief stabilisation phase. The immediate downside focus remains on the key $84,600 support zone - a level where a break could trigger sell liquidations and open the door to deeper declines. Above price, the next major thresholds sit at $101,400 and $116,000, where any recovery rally is likely to encounter profit-taking or renewed buying interest.

Price continues to track the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting persistent bearish pressure and a market still struggling to regain directional strength. Until BTC can reclaim the mid-band and hold above it, the broader trend remains tilted downward.

The RSI has dipped sharply to around 43, reversing from an earlier bounce and sliding back toward the oversold region. This shift signals a weakening of momentum and suggests that sellers remain in control. While oversold conditions could eventually attract bargain hunters, the current setup still favours caution as Bitcoin tests critical support.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s slide below $87,000 feels ominous, but it looks more like a violent macro-driven reset than a clear confirmation that a fresh crypto winter has begun. The move has been driven by rising Japanese yields, a tentative end to the yen carry era, heavy ETF outflows and cascading liquidations, not a loss of faith in the underlying technology. Whether this evolves into a deeper, longer downturn will depend on how far global funding costs rise and how institutions react to a world where money is no longer free. For now, the market is caught between two stories: a maturing asset adapting to a harsher macro climate, and a familiar boom-and-bust cycle that still has another chapter to write.

Gold and silver are breaking records in 2025 because structural demand, policy shifts, and real-world shortages have converged at the same time, pushing both metals to all-time highs. Gold has climbed nearly 60% this year to trade around $4,200 per ounce, after falling below $4,000 in late October/early November. 4000 has psychologically become a price floor in mid-Nov. As of the time of writing, gold is trading in the 4200 range. While silver has almost doubled in 11 months, surging to fresh highs near $56. These moves aren’t speculative bursts - they reflect powerful, overlapping forces reshaping global markets.

A turning point for precious metals

This superperformance has been a key focus in the financial markets in 2025, particularly in stark contrast to historical performance. Central banks are accelerating reserve diversification, while manufacturers that use silver as an input are competing for dwindling physical supplies. Investors are positioning for a world where rate cuts return and geopolitical shocks persist. Understanding this shift is key to seeing where gold and silver may head next - and what their rise signals about the state of the global economy.

What’s driving gold and silver’s breakout

Gold’s ascent in 2025 rests on foundations built over several years. Central bank buying has been a huge propeller of demand in recent months. Over the past 11 months, gold has posted positive returns in 10 of them, helping spot prices soar more than 60% and putting the metal on track for its strongest annual performance in nearly half a century. This is not speculative froth but long-term portfolio insurance against currency volatility, sanctions risk and mounting fiscal strain.

Developments in treasury yields have also been a major driver. Expectations of further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks have pushed real yields lower, weakening the dollar and making non-yielding assets, such as gold, more attractive. 

Investors looking to hedge against sticky inflation, rising deficits and an overconcentrated equity market are finding fewer reliable anchors. Gold, which remains above the psychologically important $4,000 mark, is reasserting itself as the simplest hedge against a complicated economic picture.

Silver’s shortage-driven rally

Silver’s story, though linked to gold’s precious metal rally, has a different story. In just 11 months, the metal has gained approximately 94%, with prices reaching record highs of around $56.60 per ounce. 

Silver’s surge is tied to industrial demand that has grown faster than supply for several years. London vault inventories have declined from approximately 31,000 metric tonnes in mid-2022 to around 22,000 tonnes by early 2025. In October, overnight lease rates spiked to the equivalent of 200% per year as traders scrambled to secure metal - a clear sign of market stress. London’s situation is similar to China’s, as the country also saw its holdings dwindle, as exports reached a record of above 660 tonnes. 

At the same time, India’s surge in seasonal buying and continued strength in solar, electronics and EV manufacturing have absorbed vast quantities of physical metal. When traders start using air freight to meet delivery deadlines, it signals not exuberance but scarcity.

Why it matters

The record-breaking rise in gold and silver is prompting investors to reassess their assumptions about safety, diversification, and value. After a decade where government bonds and US tech stocks dominated the conversation on safe havens, precious metals are stepping back into the role they played during earlier cycles of geopolitical tension and fiscal stress. As UBS noted, “continued dollar weakness, lower real yields and persistent geopolitical risk” have kept gold attractive even during brief swings in market optimism.

For policymakers, the rally carries a clear message: confidence in fiscal discipline and long-term monetary policy is fraying. Gold’s surge towards $4,400 signals concern about deficits, currency debasement and the after-effects of years of quantitative easing. Central banks themselves are adding to their gold reserves while publicly committing to inflation targets - a contradiction that markets have not ignored. Silver’s rise has implications for a different set of stakeholders, from renewable-energy manufacturers to electronics firms, all of whom rely on the metal’s unrivalled conductivity and industrial utility.

Silver’s outperformance is particularly significant for emerging economies such as India, where physical silver remains a preferred form of household savings. Demand tied to cultural traditions, agricultural income cycles and festive seasons has intensified just as global supply tightens. That pressure has pushed local prices to record highs, making silver both a safe haven and a source of financial strain.

Impact on markets, industry and consumers

Financial markets are already feeling the effects of this new precious metals regime. The gold–silver ratio, which started in 2025 above 100, has now fallen to around 75 as silver outpaces gold in percentage terms. 

The ratio is still above its long-term average near 70, suggesting continued room for silver to gain if gold holds steady. This shift has turned the ratio itself into a market signal - a measure of how aggressively investors are rotating into higher-beta hedges.

ETF flows and futures markets have intensified these moves. As spot prices climb, ETFs attract momentum-driven inflows, while leveraged futures positions magnify every surge and correction. Silver is especially prone to violent swings because the underlying market is smaller and more sensitive to forced liquidations. For retail investors, this creates a mix of opportunity and risk: silver can deliver outsized gains in a strong market but can unwind quickly when sentiment reverses.

The industrial economy faces more direct pressure. Global silver demand for industrial applications rose to roughly 680.5 million ounces in 2024, up from around 644 million a year earlier. Solar panel production alone consumed an estimated 244 million ounces - more than double 2020 levels. With the International Energy Agency projecting 4,000 gigawatts of new solar capacity by 2030, demand could rise by another 150 million ounces annually.

Electric vehicles add further strain. Current EVs use 25–50 grams of silver each, but potential solid-state battery designs could require up to a kilogram of silver per vehicle. Combined with the growth of AI, semiconductor, and data-centre infrastructure, this creates sustained demand at a time when global mine supply has been declining for nearly a decade.

Consumers experience this in two ways. Rising input costs can translate into more expensive solar installations, electric vehicles and electronics. At the same time, households in key markets, such as India, continue to view silver as a trusted store of value. Prices there reached 170,415 rupees per kilogram in October, an 85% rise since the start of the year - both a sign of confidence and a burden for buyers.

Expert outlook

Most major banks now cluster their 2026 gold forecasts between $4,000 and $4,600. Deutsche Bank recently raised its 2026 average projection to around $4,450 and outlined a trading range between $3,950 and $4,950. Goldman Sachs sees “almost 20% further upside” from current levels, implying a path towards roughly $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if central-bank buying continues and the dollar weakens. Bank of America, HSBC, and Société Générale all consider $5,000 a realistic upside target.

More cautious institutions expect the rally to settle rather than extend. The World Bank warns that, after a roughly 40% investment-driven gain in 2025, precious metals prices may only rise modestly in 2026, reflecting consolidation rather than acceleration. Under this scenario, gold would trade sideways in a wide range, and silver would stabilise at high but less volatile levels as supply gradually responds.

Silver’s outlook remains more volatile because of its dual role as a precious and industrial metal. Analysts expect the market to stay in deficit for a fifth straight year, but silver’s smaller size and extreme sensitivity to leveraged flows could produce sharp pullbacks if rate cuts disappoint or the dollar strengthens. As Paul Syms of Invesco observed, this year’s supply squeeze “caught a few investors by surprise”, and silver rarely repeats a trend without testing both sides first.

Across both metals, the next catalysts are clear: the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, updated global growth forecasts, and fresh central-bank reserve data. These will determine whether financial conditions continue easing into 2026 or whether markets begin to unwind some of the year’s most powerful trades.

Key takeaway

Gold and silver are breaking records in 2025 because global demand is intensifying just as supply struggles to keep pace. Central banks seek insulation from monetary and geopolitical risks, investors desire reliability amid policy uncertainty, and industries require metals that drive the energy transition. These pressures have collided to create one of the strongest precious metals rallies in decades. The next chapter hinges on interest-rate decisions, industrial demand trends and the durability of central-bank buying as the world moves into 2026.

Silver technical insight

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) has surged into a price discovery zone, trading above $57 after a sharp breakout from consolidation. The move signals strong bullish conviction, with momentum carrying price well beyond the prior range. Immediate support levels now sit at $50.00 and $46.93, levels where a pullback could trigger sell liquidations and deeper corrective pressure if breached.

Price remains extended along the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting aggressive buying interest and a market trending strongly in favour of the bulls. Any dip toward the mid-band would likely serve as a first test of trend strength.

The RSI is holding near 80, rising but almost flat within deep overbought territory. This suggests buyers remain firmly in control, yet the risk of a short-term cooldown or sideways consolidation is increasing. While the broader trend is decisively upward, overextended conditions mean traders should watch for signs of exhaustion as silver navigates uncharted highs.

According to reports, the dollar’s rate-cut reckoning is now the defining force in EUR/USD, with traders pushing expectations for a December Federal Reserve cut to more than 85%, up sharply from 39% just a week earlier. What began as a quiet Thanksgiving week has turned into the dollar’s steepest weekly decline in four months, reshaping the balance of power across major currency pairs.

EUR/USD is rising not because the euro has rediscovered its strength, but because the dollar is losing the policy advantage it has enjoyed for most of the year. As markets confront the prospect of a softer Fed and political pressure on the institution intensifies, the pair is becoming a barometer for how much credibility the central bank is willing to risk in the months ahead.

What’s driving EUR/USD right now?

The Fed sits squarely at the centre of the story. Rate expectations have shifted at a pace not seen since early summer, with futures markets now assuming a December cut as the most likely outcome. Reuters reported a series of softer labour market indicators, dovish public remarks from key policymakers, and increased speculation around Kevin Hassett’s potential nomination as the next Fed Chair have accelerated the move. Thin U.S. liquidity over the Thanksgiving holiday added fuel, allowing even modest data points to push the dollar lower.

This recalibration has allowed EUR/USD to climb despite Europe’s mixed economic backdrop. The dollar index, still hovering near 99.72, is heading for its worst weekly performance since late July. 

The euro briefly touched a 1½-week high of $1.1613 before easing, supported more by dollar fatigue than by renewed optimism in the eurozone. Even so, the narrowing of U.S.–European rate differentials has created space for euro bulls to test higher levels, something that looked unlikely just two weeks ago.

Why the dollar is facing its own reckoning

Political pressure is becoming an increasingly prominent part of the narrative. President Donald Trump has renewed calls for deeper rate cuts, arguing that the Fed must “move quickly” to support economic momentum. 

The possibility that Kevin Hassett - a prominent advocate of looser policy - could become the next Fed Chair has forced traders to reassess the institution’s independence and long-term trajectory. Markets are now questioning whether December’s cut is simply another precaution or the start of a strategically driven easing cycle.

At the macro level, the dollar’s credibility premium is also being tested. Barclays’ global head of FX strategy, Themos Fiotakis, argued that Europe had benefited in recent months from supportive rate differentials and improving sentiment, but warned that these assumptions are now under reassessment. The euro’s valuation remains high by several metrics, while the U.S. economy continues to show pockets of resilience, particularly in services. The dollar’s decline, therefore, reflects less a loss of faith and more a repricing of what the next policymaking regime might look like.

What this means for EUR/USD traders

Positioning in EUR/USD has turned decisively constructive, according to analysts. With holiday-thinned liquidity amplifying moves, traders have been quick to unwind long-USD positions accumulated during the autumn rally. The shift has also been visible in cross-asset markets: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields briefly dipped below 4% before rebounding, while German bunds held steady, creating a more supportive environment for the euro.

For corporates, the recalibration matters. European exporters face a marginally stronger currency, which could tighten their margins if the trend persists, while importers benefit from reduced dollar-denominated costs. For investors, the EUR/USD is becoming a call on relative credibility: whether the Fed’s pivot is justified by economic factors or shaped by politics - and whether the European Central Bank can maintain stability as global conditions change.

The geopolitical backdrop adds another layer, analysts added. Markets are tracking every incremental update on Ukraine peace negotiations, with Vladimir Putin signalling that draft proposals could form the basis of future talks. While analysts caution against expecting a rapid “peace premium”, even the possibility of de-escalation has helped cap dollar demand against the euro.

Expert outlook

In the near term, market watchers stated the EUR/USD will remain closely tied to U.S. policy signals. A confirmed December rate cut, reinforced by dovish messaging, could send the pair back toward 1.17. But any upside surprise in U.S. labour or inflation data would temper enthusiasm and reintroduce volatility, particularly for leveraged positions - something traders often evaluate beforehand using the Deriv trading calculator to manage risk.

Medium-term dynamics remain more uncertain. The eurozone continues to wrestle with uneven growth and limited fiscal momentum, which could limit the sustainability of any rally built solely on dollar weakness. At the same time, bond markets remain a crucial indicator: if the U.S. 10-year yield breaks back above 4.1%, the dollar could regain some cyclically driven strength, according to experts. 

The next trigger may come from a combination of Fed rhetoric, incoming U.S. data, and developments in Eastern Europe, all of which have the potential to redirect EUR/USD in the weeks ahead.

EUR/USD technical insights

At the start of writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1585, moving sideways within a well-defined range. The pair continues to face overhead pressure from the 1.1650 resistance level, where traders may look for profit-taking or renewed buying if the price can break convincingly above it. On the downside, the first key support level sits at 1.1565, followed by a stronger base at 1.1448. A break below either level is likely to trigger sell liquidations and deeper downside momentum.

The price remains contained within the Bollinger Bands, indicating a market lacking strong directional conviction. This consolidative structure suggests EUR/USD may continue chopping within the range unless a macro catalyst - such as ECB or Fed commentary - forces a breakout.

The RSI is nearly flat, sitting around 44, close to the midline and signalling neutral momentum. Neither bulls nor bears currently dominate, reinforcing the idea that the pair is in a holding pattern while awaiting its next decisive move.

Key takeaway

EUR/USD is climbing because the dollar is undergoing a policy reckoning shaped by rapid shifts in rate expectations and rising political influence. The euro may not have a strong domestic story, but the repricing of U.S. monetary credibility has given it new momentum. The next leg depends on the Fed's decision in December, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical developments. Traders on Deriv MT5 will closely watch those catalysts as they adjust their strategies.