The numbers are staggering. In 2025, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are collectively guiding to $360–400 billion in capital expenditures – a ~60% year-over-year increase, with the overwhelming majority directed toward AI-related infrastructure (data centres, custom silicon, GPU/Trainium clusters).

On 24 November 2025, BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage on Amazon with an Outperform rating and a $320 price target - currently the highest among major brokers and implying ~39% upside from the 26 November close of ~$230.

2025 capex guidance - The big four

Sources: Company filings, earnings calls, BNP Paribas Exane, BBC, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why BNP Paribas exane sees Amazon differently

Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane argue that concerns about Amazon under-investing or being late in AI are “overblown” in light of the company’s disclosed spending and pipeline. Amazon’s finance team has discussed a 2025 capex outlook of roughly $125B, with expectations for a higher figure in 2026, and has indicated that the vast majority is focused on AI-focused infrastructure such as data centres, networking and in-house accelerators for AWS.​

The note highlights several points that differentiate Amazon in this capex cycle:

• Vertical integration: By designing its own AI chips such as Trainium and Inferentia, management has indicated potential cost and efficiency benefits relative to relying solely on third-party GPUs, which could help with both pricing and capacity flexibility over time.​

• Multiple monetisation channels: The AI infrastructure is positioned to support not only AWS enterprise and government workloads but also improvements in advertising relevance, logistics optimisation, and consumer-facing services, giving Amazon several ways to translate infrastructure into revenue.​

• Long-term margin narrative: The firm’s thesis references scenarios where AWS growth re-accelerates into the mid-20% range and advertising grows at 20–25%+ annually, contributing to potential group-level operating margin expansion over a multi-year horizon, though actual outcomes will depend on execution and demand.​

Key investor debates & risks

Upcoming catalysts/data points

• AWS re:Invent - early December 2025

Market participants will likely watch for announcements on new AI services, model offerings, and capacity expansions, as well as customer case studies that illustrate production-scale workloads.

• Amazon Q4 2025 results - expected late January / early February 2026

Key metrics to watch include AWS revenue growth rates, segment operating income, and management commentary on AI-driven demand and 2026 capex plans.

• Peer earnings and updated guidance - early 2026

Earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta in early 2026 are expected to provide fresh details on capex trajectories, AI product adoption, and how each company is balancing investment with free cash flow.

These events may offer more clarity on how quickly AI investments are translating into revenue and whether capex levels remain elevated, moderate, or increase further in 2026.

Amazon technical insights

At the start of writing, Amazon (AMZN) is trading near $229, recovering modestly from recent lows while holding above key supports at $218.45 and $213. A drop below these zones could trigger sell liquidations, while a push higher puts the $250.15 resistance level back in focus - an area where traders may take profits or look for renewed buying.

The RSI remains flat around 50, signalling neutral momentum and suggesting the market is still searching for direction after the recent pullback.

XRP’s price outlook has become unusually tense as the surge in ETF momentum is now running headfirst into a wave of heavy sell-offs. The token should be rising on the back of multiple U.S. ETF approvals on 21 November - some of which pulled in over $50 million in first-day trading volume, according to market analyst Eric Balchunas- yet XRP instead slipped to 2.18, down from highs of 2.29, amid broader crypto selloffs. This contradiction between structural progress and market pressure is defining the current landscape.

The clash raises a sharp question for investors: does the arrival of regulated ETF flows represent the foundation of a long-term revaluation, or will persistent selling overwhelm sentiment and drag the market toward a deeper reset? XRP now sits at a technical and psychological turning point, and the resolution of this tension will shape its next major move.

What’s driving XRP’s latest shift?

According to reports, XRP’s recent price dynamics are being shaped by two competing narratives. On one side, analysts who have long championed ambitious targets - such as 24HrsCrypto and Black Swan Capitalist founder Versan Aljarrah - continue to argue that XRP’s value is ultimately tied to global settlement demand rather than retail hype. 

Their view is that Bitcoin rises on speculation, while XRP’s long-term upside depends on “utility, settlement demand, and global liquidity needs.” These analysts maintain that patient accumulation and institutional adoption remain central to XRP’s value creation.

That theme collided with a major regulatory development: the formal approval of multiple U.S. XRP ETFs. The NYSE certification of Franklin Templeton’s ETF and the launch of products by Bitwise, 21Shares, and others created a clean, compliant gateway for traditional investors. 

Early inflows reflect genuine interest - Bitwise recorded $22 million in opening-day volume, while Canary Capital’s XRPC product posted $58 million, one of the strongest starts of the year. These products broaden XRP’s potential demand base even though the spot market remains volatile.

Why it matters

Market analysts stated that ETF approvals represent a structural boost for XRP’s long-term credibility. Bitwise described its own ETF debut as a “historic moment,” highlighting that regulated products carry weight with financial advisers and pension managers still cautious about digital assets. These investors often decide months after regulatory approval, suggesting that meaningful inflows may materialise in 2026 as portfolio frameworks adjust. 

But near-term sentiment tells a different story. XRP’s drop below $2 despite the ETF milestone shows how fragile the immediate market environment remains. Glassnode data indicates that 41.5% of the circulating supply is currently at a loss, creating pressure as traders capitulate. 

Whale activity intensified the decline, with over 200 million XRP sold within two days of the ETF news. This divergence between structural gains and short-term weakness is now central to XRP’s outlook.

Impact on markets and investors

From recent reports, Ripple’s institutional strategy adds another dimension to XRP’s trajectory. The company’s $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, rebranded as Ripple Prime, marks the first time a crypto-native company has owned a global, multi-asset prime broker. 

The platform clears $3 trillion annually, and Ripple executives report significant growth since the acquisition. XRP and RLUSD are set to be deployed as collateral for institutional clients, signalling a push to anchor the token within professional trading and settlement infrastructure. 

Watchers consider this shift crucial because prime brokerage acts as the nerve centre of institutional capital flow. Embedding XRP into collateral and settlement channels strengthens liquidity pathways that do not rely on retail enthusiasm. Hidden Road’s rapid expansion suggests demand for compliant digital-asset tooling continues to rise. For investors, this creates the unusual scenario where fundamental plumbing improves even as the short-term chart weakens, a pattern common in transitional market phases.

Expert outlook

Technical analysts describe XRP as approaching a pivotal threshold. Regaining $2.195 would signal stabilisation and could open a path towards $2.6, while losing $2 risks a drop towards $1.5, where long-term investors might attempt to reaccumulate. The once-popular $3.6 target now looks distant unless broader crypto sentiment reverses.

The long-term debate remains polarised. Supporters of the $100 thesis argue that XRP’s future rests on liquidity rails and institutional settlement rather than speculation cycles. Critics maintain that real inflows may not emerge until advisers and regulated funds allocate in earnest - likely in 2026. Macro headwinds and Bitcoin’s direction remain critical: a market-wide rebound could amplify ETF demand, while continued weakness may keep XRP pinned near support.

Key takeaway

Many say, XRP’s outlook is shaped by a clash between ETF-driven optimism and pressure from heavy sell-offs. Analysts have expressed the underlying ecosystem is strengthening through institutional integration; however, the price remains vulnerable as whales distribute and macroeconomic conditions weigh on risk assets. The next major move hinges on whether XRP can reclaim the $2 region, attract sustained ETF inflows, and ride any broader crypto rebound. The balance of these forces will define the trajectory into 2026.

XRP technical insights

At the start of writing, XRP/USD is hovering around $2.1800, trading between key resistance at $2.6480 and strong support at $1.9569. A break below support could trigger sell liquidations, while moves above $2.6480 or $3.0400 may attract profit-taking or fresh buying interest.

The RSI is rising gently from the midline at around 54, signalling a mild recovery in momentum but not yet indicating overbought conditions.

Google has been criticised for years for lagging behind OpenAI, especially after ChatGPT exploded in late 2022 and reshaped the AI landscape. Yet the company’s recent streak of breakthroughs has triggered a dramatic reappraisal. 

At the centre of this shift is Gemini 3, Google’s newest flagship AI model, which has impressed analysts with its performance in reasoning, coding and specialised tasks that traditionally stump chatbots. As demand grows for both cloud compute and Google’s custom AI chips, investors are beginning to question whether Google’s comeback is already underway - and whether the AI race is entering a new phase.

What’s driving Google’s resurgence

Alphabet has gained substantially since mid-October, sending shares to $323.64 and bringing it within reach of the $4 trillion club. 

Google’s return to form is rooted in a combination of technical breakthroughs and strategic repositioning. The launch of Gemini 3 captured global attention after the model surged to the top of AI leaderboards such as LMArena and Humanity’s Last Exam, winning praise from analysts and technologists for its reasoning ability and performance on complex science tasks 

Its improved reliability in generating images with accurate embedded text - a challenge that has plagued many chatbots - signals a maturity necessary for enterprise adoption. At the same time, Google has refreshed its AI product suite, including updates to its viral Nano Banana generator, which reinforces momentum across both consumer and developer segments.

The second force propelling Google forward is its deep investment in infrastructure. Once criticised for falling behind Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia, the company now benefits from rising demand for Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) - a specialised chip architecture Google has refined for over a decade. 

Reports that Meta is in talks to deploy Google’s chips in its data centres by 2027 triggered a rally in Alphabet stock, demonstrating that Google’s hardware ecosystem may finally offer a meaningful alternative to Nvidia’s dominant GPUs. Partnerships with Anthropic - potentially involving up to 1 million TPUs - further signal a structural shift in AI compute preferences.

Why it matters

Google’s resurgence has implications far beyond its own balance sheet. As Neil Shah of Counterpoint Research put it, “Google has arguably always been the dark horse in this AI race — a sleeping giant now fully awake.” . If Gemini 3 continues to outperform expectations, it may reshape competitive dynamics between the three pillars of modern AI: OpenAI for model innovation, Nvidia for hardware, and Microsoft for cloud and enterprise distribution. A strengthened Google challenges this equilibrium, creating new strategic options for companies seeking alternatives to Nvidia’s high-cost GPUs or Microsoft’s deep integrations with OpenAI.

The return of competitive balance is also important for consumers and regulators. Google escaped the most severe outcome in a US antitrust case partly because AI competition has intensified. If Google proves it can innovate at scale, it may relieve pressure on regulators while accelerating the adoption of AI products beyond search advertising. 

Units like Waymo, which is expanding into multiple cities and now supports highway driving, illustrate how Alphabet’s deep research pipeline fuels progress beyond software. The question is whether Google can convert technical superiority into commercial leadership - something it has historically struggled with outside advertising.

Impact on industry, markets and consumers

Google’s ascent poses both opportunity and disruption across the tech landscape. Nvidia, which lost $150 billion in market value on the day Meta’s chip discussions were reported, now contends with the prospect of a viable alternative for certain AI workloads. While Nvidia insists its GPUs remain the industry’s Swiss Army knife - flexible, widely supported, and essential for model training - TPUs give Google a niche advantage. As ASIC-based designs gain traction, analysts expect custom silicon to grow faster than the GPU market over the next several years.

This shift has a significant impact on the broader cloud industry. Google Cloud, which generated $15.2 billion in third-quarter revenue - up 34% year-on-year - remains behind AWS and Microsoft Azure, but the demand for generative-AI compute is narrowing the gap. 

Companies attracted by TPUs' cost efficiency may choose Google Cloud for specialised workloads, while still relying on Nvidia GPUs for general tasks. For consumers, the competition translates into better AI experiences: models with stronger reasoning, fewer errors, and safer behaviour.

Across financial markets, Alphabet’s rally affects index weightings and rotation patterns. As traders reassess Google’s valuation, volatility in Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Meta increases - creating opportunities for directional and event-driven strategies on platforms like Deriv MT5, where both tech stocks and index CFDs see heightened activity during AI-driven shifts. Tools such as the Deriv Trading Calculator help quantify margin impact and manage exposure as market reactions intensify.

Expert outlook

Forecasts for Google’s next phase remain divided. Some analysts argue that Google’s resurgence marks a long-awaited payoff from its “full-stack” strategy - controlling data, models, chips, cloud and applications. CEO Sundar Pichai emphasised during the last earnings call that this unified approach “really plays out” when scaling frontier models that integrate reasoning, multimodal capabilities and advanced coding. If Google continues to refine its ecosystem, it could rival or surpass OpenAI in enterprise adoption while weakening Nvidia’s dominance in hardware.

Yet uncertainties persist. Data revealed consumer adoption of Gemini still lags behind that of ChatGPT, with 650 million users compared to ChatGPT's 800 million weekly users, and monthly downloads of 73 million, which trail ChatGPT’s 93 million. Google Cloud, although accelerating, is still half the size of AWS and Azure. 

It was noted that if Google cannot convert its technological strength into sustained commercial traction, the gap could widen again. Much will depend on whether Meta and other AI-intensive companies formalise their TPU commitments and whether Gemini 3 continues outperforming rivals in real-world deployments. The next six to nine months will be decisive, according to analysts.

Key takeaway

For market watchers, Google’s rapid AI resurgence suggests the company has moved far beyond its defensive posture of recent years. Gemini 3’s strong performance, rising TPU adoption and fresh cloud momentum have revived Alphabet’s standing in the global AI race. Yet the outcome is far from settled. 

The next phase hinges on whether Google can scale its breakthroughs commercially while sustaining hardware and model performance. Traders and analysts await confirmation from enterprise adoption, chip-supply agreements and quarterly cloud-revenue growth - the indicators that will decide whether this comeback becomes a lasting transformation.

Alphabet technical insights

At the start of writing, Alphabet (GOOG) has broken into a price discovery zone above $323, signalling strong bullish momentum after an extended run along the upper Bollinger Band. Key supports sit at $268.75 and $240, where a drop below either level could trigger sell liquidations or deeper pullbacks.

The RSI, now around 74, is approaching overbought territory, highlighting stretched conditions that may lead to short-term cooling or consolidation, even as the broader trend remains firmly upward.

Imagine waking up to headlines screaming 'Gold Smashes Past $4,300,' and no, it’s not a dream; it has been the reality of October 2025. Now, November’s keeping the momentum alive with prices hovering near $4,132 as of 25 November 2025. If you’re wondering whether this shiny metal remains a smart addition to your financial mix, stick around. We’re breaking down the fresh data, historical peaks, and practical takeaways without the hype.

Why is gold climbing so sharply in late 2025?

The gold spot price breached $4,100 per ounce on November 24, a 1.65% increase from the prior day, driven by investor bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling inflation signals. This isn't random volatility; it's a response to broader economic jitters. Geopolitical tensions, like ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks, add a layer of safe-haven demand, pushing prices up even as crude oil dips on "peace" rumours. 

Breaking it down: Central banks worldwide are projected to acquire over 900  tons of gold in 2025, according to reports, surpassing demand for jewellery and technology. This institutional buying creates a floor under prices - think of it as a global vote of confidence in gold as a hedge against currency wobbles. 

For everyday folks, it means reviewing your asset allocation might reveal whether gold’s 58% year-to-date gain (from -$2,600 in January) aligns better with your risk tolerance now than it did during last year’s flatline.

How close is gold to its historic peaks, and what do the charts say?

Gold’s all-time high? $4,379.13 on October 17, 2025, eclipsing the inflation-adjusted 1980 record of about $3,400 (when an ounce topped $850 nominally). Fast-forward to November: Spot prices traded between $4,046 and $4,145 on 24 November, coiling in a bull pennant pattern on daily charts - a setup that hints at continuation if it breaks upward, based on Kitco’s intra-day analysis.

Visualise this: On a 5-minute Comex futures chart, gold is hugging the 50-period moving average as support around $4,010, with resistance at $4,108. Zoom out to weekly: It’s testing the upper Bollinger Band after a 3.7% monthly rise.

Historically, such consolidations after highs (like the post-2020s $2,070 peak) often precede 10-15% corrections or fresh legs up - a reminder to track these levels when assessing gold’s role in long-term savings, such as in a retirement portfolio.

Expert take: "Gold’s resilience stems from its inverse correlation to real yields,” notes FX Empire analyst Yoav Niv, who points to the metal’s consolidation amid delayed U.S. data releases. Actionable angle? If inflation reports this week nudge yields lower, gold could revisit its October high - use that as a cue to compare gold’s performance against your bond or cash holdings.

Gold’s role in everyday portfolios

Hypothetically, let’s consider a mid-40s couple in Chicago, facing 7% inflation that ate into their savings in 2024. So, they shifted 5% of their nest egg to a gold ETF in early 2025; by November, that slice would have grown 58%, offsetting spikes in grocery and housing costs. Nothing magical here, but gold acting as a diversifier when stocks wobble.

Or take an example of a small business like a jeweller who rode out November’s uptick by locking in supplier rates at $4,000, buffering against dollar strength that hammered imports. The insight? Gold isn’t just for vaults; it’s a tool for smoothing cash flow volatility. 

Scan your expenses - if currency fluctuations hit suppliers or travel, a modest gold exposure (via accessible ETFs) could stabilise planning without overcomplicating things.

November’s gold action underscores its enduring appeal: a buffer against the unpredictable. Whether eyeing historic charts or current consolidations, the key is integration - weave it into your financial story thoughtfully. 

Gold technical insights

At the start of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,132, maintaining bullish momentum above key supports at $4,037 and $3,940. A sustained move above these levels suggests buyers remain in control, though a drop below either could trigger sell liquidations.

The $4,360 level stands out as a major resistance, where traders may take profits or new buyers could enter on FOMO sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI has surged to around 77, rising sharply from the midline - a signal of strengthening momentum but also a potential sign of overbought conditions that could invite short-term pullbacks.

This week’s sharp rebound in tech stocks poses a compelling question: Is this more than just a bounce? With the Nasdaq Composite jumping 2.7% and the S&P 500 up roughly 1.5% as investors embraced both AI momentum and hopes for a December rate cut, the tone has shifted, according to reports. 

The deeper issue, however, is whether this marks the beginning of a new tech cycle, underpinned by accelerating AI deployment and cheaper capital, or simply a rally within an existing one. The following insights examine what drives the move, its significance, its impact on markets, and what comes next.

What’s driving the tech stock rally

Market watchers say that at the heart of the current advance lie two forces: renewed confidence in AI-led innovation and fresh traction in monetary policy expectations. On the policy side, signals from the Federal Reserve, including Governor Christopher Waller and President John Williams of the New York Fed, have bolstered expectations for a December rate cut, helping to lift growth-stock valuations. 

The reduction in discount rates on long-term earnings tends to favour tech firms, which rely on high forward-rate growth. Parallel to that, the AI story remains central. Firms such as Alphabet Inc. surged after enthusiasm for its Gemini model, while the “Magnificent Seven” pulled the broader tech cohort higher. 

The market appears to be reconciling the earlier pullback (driven by bubble fears) and repositioning into stocks that benefit from the AI infrastructure build-out, including chips, cloud, and software. The question now is whether this is the launch of a new growth wave or simply the next leg of the existing one.

Why it matters

If tech is entering a new cycle, the implications extend far beyond a handful of large-cap stocks. These companies increasingly lag behind not only in market weight but also in shaping index trajectory, sector rotation, and investor psychology. As one analyst observed: “Scepticism around AI cap-ex might be a contrarian positive” for the trade in the long term. 

For institutional and retail investors alike, the timing could matter: a true cycle shift may favour growth and innovation over value, alter asset-allocation flows, and provide a greater runway for risk assets. Conversely, if this is not a new cycle, then mis­pricing valuations could lead to sharp reversals. For corporates - from chip fabricators to SaaS startups - the cost of capital, demand for AI services, and global semiconductor supply chains all hinge on how the cycle evolves.

Impact on the market and industry

A credible new tech cycle would signal substantial real-world change: surging investment in data-centres, exponential scaling of AI models, and ecosystem shifts toward cloud-native, AI-first companies. We’re seeing some of that. Analysts estimate that AI could add $5-19 trillion in incremental revenue to US companies, although many warn that much of this may already be priced in.

In market terms, a cycle change could reinvigorate under-weight tech portfolios, trigger rotation out of value/cyclicals and reshape the “growth vs. value” trade. For the industry, this means that winners will likely emerge among firms that scale AI profitably, while laggards will face margin pressure, heavier capital expenditure burdens, and competitive erosion. The stakes are high: the surge could be transformative - but the infrastructure and competitive demands are intense.

For the market, that means volatility is likely to stay elevated. Traders balancing positions on platforms like Deriv MT5 can use advanced order types, leverage settings and stop-loss controls to navigate sharp swings. Understanding margin impact and exposure - via the Deriv Trading Calculator - is increasingly essential as the cycle matures.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, professional traders note that key signals to monitor include inflation trajectories, clarity on Fed policy, earnings from major tech companies, and progress on supply-chain goals in the AI build-out. Markets currently price in a high probability of a December rate cut, but if inflation proves persistent or earnings disappoint, momentum could stall.

Some strategists caution that we may simply be in yet another leg of the initial tech-cycle rather than in the dawn of a fresh era. For instance, Goldman Sachs analysts suggest much of the potential upside from AI is already embedded in current valuations. 

This means that while the upside exists, the risk-reward becomes less attractive. The best scenario: a renewed tech cycle with broad-based participation. The risk: concentrated gains, fading momentum and underlying disillusionment. Either way, the next few months will be critical.

Key takeaway

The surge in tech stocks carries more than a feel-good bounce - it could mark the opening stages of a new cycle where AI deployment and supportive policy drive sustained growth. However, the caveats remain substantial: valuations are stretched, execution risk is real, and macroeconomic headwinds loom. Investors should watch upcoming inflation data, Fed commentary and earnings from tech heavyweights as signals to validate the shift. The moment is promising, but not yet definitive.

Alphabet technical insights

At the start of writing, Alphabet’s stock (GOOG) has entered a price discovery zone above $318, signalling strong bullish momentum. The $280 and $238 levels act as key supports - a break below these zones could trigger sell liquidations or deeper corrections.

Meanwhile, the RSI has climbed to around 74.5, pushing into overbought territory, suggesting that the stock may face short-term profit-taking or consolidation before attempting further upside.

USD/JPY is hovering in what traders now call the “danger zone” - the 155–160 range that has previously forced Japan’s hand. The pair is testing levels that, if breached, could compel Tokyo to intervene once again to defend the yen, according to analysts. For markets, this isn’t just a psychological threshold; it’s a line drawn by history. Every move closer to 160 revives memories of past interventions and speculation over how far Japan will let its currency weaken before stepping in.

Reports stated that at the heart of the tension is a growing divergence between Japan’s fiscal expansion and its cautious monetary stance. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ¥21.3 trillion (£112 billion) stimulus plan has pushed yields higher and weakened the yen further, just as the United States maintains high interest rates. 

The question now is whether Japan can - or will - act in time to halt USD/JPY’s climb before it breaks through 160 and tests Tokyo’s resolve on the global stage.

What’s driving USD/JPY?

The yen’s latest decline is rooted in Japan’s widening policy gap with the United States. Takaichi’s stimulus, the largest since the pandemic, includes spending on energy relief, tax breaks, and cash handouts. It aims to ease cost-of-living pressures, yet investors view it as inflationary and fiscally reckless. Bloomberg reported that Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have surged to their highest since 2008 as debt worries deepen and confidence in long-term fiscal discipline wanes 

The Bank of Japan’s cautious stance has only amplified the pressure. Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to argue that wage growth must stabilise before any major policy shift, even as inflation remains above the 2 per cent target. 

In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept US interest rates elevated and remains reluctant to cut quickly. That yield differential makes holding dollars more rewarding, sending capital flowing out of the yen and keeping USD/JPY pinned near multi-year highs.

Why it matters

Market watchers say the yen’s weakness cuts both ways. A softer currency benefits exporters such as Toyota and Sony, whose overseas earnings translate into higher profits. Yet for importers and households, the pain is immediate. Japan relies heavily on imported fuel and food, meaning each tick higher in USD/JPY makes everyday life more expensive. “Japan’s yen in real effective terms is almost as weak as the Turkish lira,” warned Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution, describing the government’s fiscal stance as “denial on debt”. 

Beyond Japan’s borders, the yen serves as a global barometer of risk sentiment. When it weakens sharply, it signals growing confidence in the dollar and emboldens carry-trade strategies funded in yen. But it also heightens the risk of abrupt reversals if Tokyo intervenes. Markets still recall the mid-year period, when Japan reportedly spent over $60 billion defending its currency after the USD/JPY briefly topped 160. That legacy makes every move within this band feel like a countdown.

Impact on markets and strategy

In bond markets, investors are demanding higher yields to offset fiscal risk, pushing ten-year JGB rates above 1 per cent and forty-year yields beyond 3.6 per cent. The rise reflects concern that Japan’s debt - already more than twice the size of its economy - will swell further under Takaichi’s pro-growth agenda. 

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has already warned that the government “will act against disorderly moves,” a phrase traders now interpret as a veiled threat of intervention.

For equity investors, the weaker yen has delivered a short-term boost. The Nikkei 225 has climbed to its highest level in decades, supported by export-heavy stocks and overseas earnings windfalls. 

Yet this comes at a cost: consumer confidence has declined, and inflation expectations are rising. Globally, the yen’s softness feeds risk appetite - fuel for equities and even crypto - but leaves markets vulnerable to a sharp correction if Tokyo or the BoJ suddenly shifts stance.

For retail traders, this volatility presents opportunity and risk in equal measure. With high volatility around key levels, disciplined position sizing and margin tracking become essential - tools like the Deriv calculator can help traders estimate pip values, contract sizes, and potential profit or loss before entering the market.

Expert outlook

Forecasts for USD/JPY hinge on timing. If the BoJ raises rates to 0.75 per cent in December, as a narrow majority of economists expect, the yen could stage a relief rally back towards 150.

However, if the central bank delays, and US data remain firm, traders may continue testing the upper bound of the range. “Sanae Takaichi’s Abenomics-style stimulus will expand global liquidity and strengthen the dollar - King Dollar is alive and well,” said James Thorne of Wellington Altus.

Much depends on whether the Fed shifts before the BoJ does. Futures markets currently price a 75.5% chance of a US rate cut in December. 

Analysts also added that a dovish Fed could narrow the yield gap and trigger yen buying. But absent that, Japan’s currency remains hostage to policy inertia and global sentiment. The longer USD/JPY stays near 160, the greater the pressure on Tokyo to prove it still commands the market’s respect.

USD/JPY technical insights

At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading near 156.66, consolidating within a price discovery zone after an extended bullish run. The Bollinger Bands (10, close) are widening, showing heightened volatility and a continuation bias as price action remains close to the upper band — a sign of strong bullish momentum but also increased risk of short-term exhaustion.

Key support zones sit at 154.00, 150.00, and 146.60, where a break below each could trigger sell liquidations and deeper corrections. On the upside, price discovery above 156.00 leaves limited resistance, meaning the next pullbacks may attract dip buyers unless volatility spikes.

The RSI (14) is climbing into the overbought zone, suggesting bullish strength may be nearing its peak. If the RSI sustains a reading above 70, momentum could extend higher; however, any reversal below this level might indicate profit-taking or early selling pressure ahead.

Key takeaway

According to analysts, USD/JPY’s return to the 155–160 corridor is more than a chart pattern; it is a referendum on Japan’s policy mix. Fiscal expansion without matching monetary adjustment has left the yen vulnerable and investors sceptical. Intervention may stabilise markets briefly, but only decisive tightening or fiscal restraint will restore confidence. Until then, the pair sits squarely in the danger zone - where every move higher tests not just Tokyo’s tolerance, but the world’s faith in Japan’s ability to control its own currency.

When Nvidia Corporation reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion - up 62 % year-on-year - it looked like another flawless win in the AI hardware race. Yet despite the surge and raised guidance of about $65 billion for the next quarter, the market’s reaction was oddly restrained.

In a leaked all-hands meeting, CEO Jensen Huang admitted: “The market did not appreciate it.” This disconnect between execution and excitement reveals how high expectations - and AI euphoria - have raised the bar for even the best performers.

What’s driving Nvidia’s blowout quarter

The lifeblood of Nvidia’s results is still data-centre demand - the backbone of AI infrastructure. That segment alone generated roughly $51 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter. 

Flagship products like the Blackwell platform continue to dominate enterprise orders, while guidance now points toward another record quarter - $65 billion in revenue, 65% growth year-on-year. Nvidia isn’t merely growing; it’s defining the tempo for an entire industry’s capital-expenditure cycle.

Geopolitical and structural forces amplify that growth. As cloud, robotics and autonomous systems scale globally, Nvidia’s hardware sits at the centre of innovation - and the bottleneck of supply. But with success comes fragility: when perfection becomes expected, the smallest wobble feels seismic. “When you’ve trained the market to expect perfection,” one analyst quipped, “even great isn’t good enough.” 

Why it matters

Nvidia now commands roughly 7.31% of the S&P 500’s total weighting, making it the single most influential barometer of AI sentiment. A stock this large moving sideways after a record quarter suggests investors are questioning not the data, but the narrative.

FinancialContent called it “a crucible moment for AI and the broader market.” If Nvidia’s excellence no longer excites, the rest of tech will feel the chill.

Huang himself put it plainly: deliver a bad quarter and you’re blamed for bursting the bubble; deliver a great one and you’re accused of fuelling it. That perception trap highlights a new phase in the AI trade - one where results must be beyond exceptional to move markets. It also reflects a subtle shift: from hype and promise to discipline and delivery.

Impact on the tech & AI ecosystem

Nvidia’s print initially lifted tech shares across the board, with AMD, Broadcom and memory suppliers riding the optimism. But as the day wore on, those gains faded - proof that enthusiasm has become fragile.

According to analysts, if monster results no longer trigger a rally, it implies much of the AI infrastructure growth is already priced in. Investors may now reward operational efficiency over raw expansion. That’s a natural evolution: when growth matures, valuation discipline takes over.

For hardware buyers and enterprise users, this evolution may mean slightly easier supply conditions but tighter pricing. Nvidia’s challenge will be to sustain margins while scaling output - a shift from visionary growth to industrial precision.

Expert outlook

Market watchers say two roads lie ahead. If Nvidia continues to execute - scaling new product lines, widening manufacturing capacity, and navigating export risks - it can retain leadership and extend its run. The company still holds a technological moat that few can breach.

The other scenario is one of valuation reset: if investors start questioning whether hardware growth can outpace cost inflation and competition indefinitely, Nvidia could face a plateau. As one Bernstein analyst put it: “I’m not sure what else you can ask for, at least on the print.” 

For traders, the signals to monitor are guidance trends, backlog updates (especially in China), and the rollout pace of the Rubin and Blackwell chips. A market-cap swing of half a trillion dollars in weeks shows just how sensitive sentiment has become.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia (NVDA) trades near $194.50, rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band after testing the $179.70 support level. The Bollinger Bands (10, close) are moderately widening - a sign of increasing volatility - with price action gravitating toward the midline. This suggests a potential continuation toward the upper band in the short term.

The $173.20 level stands out as the next key support; a break below could spark sell liquidations and amplify downside momentum. Conversely, $208.00 forms a strong resistance zone where both profit-taking and late-cycle FOMO buying could emerge if the rally extends.

Momentum indicators add weight to the bullish case. The RSI (14) has turned sharply upward, crossing above the midline around 50 - a technical cue for renewed buying pressure. A sustained move above that level, supported by stability above $179.70, would reinforce a short-term uptrend and re-engage traders eyeing momentum moves.

For those mapping scenarios, the Deriv calculator can be useful for simulating profit and loss under different volatility setups - an essential complement to chart analysis when planning NVDA trades on Deriv MT5.

Key takeaway

Investors see Nvidia as remaining the nucleus of the AI infrastructure boom - financially unmatched and technologically dominant. Yet the market’s lukewarm response marks a turning point: investors no longer reward promise, only proof. In this new phase of the AI trade, execution, margin resilience and innovation cadence will define leadership. For traders, Nvidia’s chart may hint at short-term upside, but the bigger story is one of shifting expectations - where perfection is now the baseline, not the surprise.

Gold’s remarkable steadiness near $4,050 per ounce is no accident, according to reports. Beneath the noise of fading rate-cut bets and dollar strength lies a deeper structural force: relentless buying by the world’s central banks. From Beijing to Ankara, policymakers are quietly rewriting the rules of monetary safety, using gold as their hedge against political risk, currency instability, and waning trust in the U.S. financial order.

This demand has become the invisible hand supporting bullion, according to analysts. Even as speculative traders pull back and ETF flows flatten, sovereign buyers are helping to anchor the market. 

With the People’s Bank of China extending its 12-month gold-buying streak and other central banks following suit, gold’s downside risk now looks more like a pause than a collapse - a floor reinforced by nations, not funds.

What’s driving gold right now?

The latest U.S. jobs data has reset expectations across global markets. The September Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a gain of 119,000 jobs, more than double what economists expected, while unemployment inched up to 4.4 %. 

On the surface, the data appears mixed - strong hiring but softening momentum - yet it was enough to prompt investors to dial back their calls on a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

That recalibration lifted the dollar and U.S. yields, typically a toxic combination for gold. But the metal barely flinched. The reason is that central-bank demand has altered gold’s sensitivity to policy cycles. 

According to data from the World Gold Council, official sector purchases now account for nearly a quarter of annual demand - a structural shift from a decade ago. When the Fed hesitates, central banks don’t.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has reported gold purchases for 12 consecutive months, adding 0.9t in October, which lifted the total to 2,304t, representing 8% of China’s foreign exchange reserves and marking a full year of uninterrupted buying. Turkey, Poland, and India have all joined the trend of accumulation.

Why it matters

Market watchers say this quiet sovereign accumulation is reshaping the role of gold in the global financial system. What used to be a “risk-off” trade is now part of the national reserve strategy. The freezing of Russian foreign assets in 2022 prompted governments to reassess their exposure to the dollar-dominated system, and gold emerged as a neutral alternative. 

As Zaner Metals strategist Peter Grant puts it, the latest U.S. jobs data “confirms a slowing yet stable market - but that doesn’t reduce the appetite for safety.”

For policymakers in emerging markets, gold offers something paper assets can’t: insulation from sanctions, inflation, and the politics of currency. For investors, this means that gold’s price is no longer solely a function of interest rates or risk appetite. It’s a geopolitical indicator - a mirror of how much trust remains in the current monetary order.

Impact on markets and investors

The most striking change in this cycle is that gold is holding near record highs even as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) trades at its strongest level in months. The traditional inverse relationship has weakened. According to analysts, both assets are being purchased for the same reason: safety. This dynamic challenges the idea that gold only rallies when rates fall.

For traders, that complicates short-term positioning. With gold now roughly 7% below its October record of $4,380, momentum has cooled, but structural demand remains intact. ETF flows, although mildly negative in recent weeks, show no signs of panic. 

Retail investors have trimmed exposure, but the official sector has replaced them as the marginal buyer. For long-term investors, this shift suggests that pullbacks may offer opportunities rather than warnings, especially if macroeconomic uncertainty deepens into 2026.

Expert outlook

Analysts remain divided on how far this central-bank bid can carry the metal. Goldman Sachs still sees the recent weakness as “a blip, not a reversal,” maintaining that both sovereign and private investment demand will underpin prices through 2026. UBS projects a possible climb to $4,900 per ounce within the next two years, assuming continued diversification away from dollar reserves.

The main risk to that outlook lies in monetary complacency. If U.S. data stays firm and the Fed reaffirms its “higher for longer” stance, speculative interest could fade further. But for now, gold’s resilience speaks for itself. The market is adjusting to a new reality - one where central banks, not traders, set the tone.

Gold technical insights

At the time of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the $4,030 region, hovering near the $4,020 support level. The RSI is flat and close to the midline, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction - a sign of market indecision.

Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands have started to narrow, reflecting lower volatility after recent swings. The price is oscillating near the mid-band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before the next breakout.

On the upside, $4,200 and $4,365 remain key resistance levels, where traders may expect profit-taking or renewed buying interest if bullish sentiment returns. Conversely, a break below $4,020 could open the door to the $3,940 support, where increased selling pressure or liquidations may occur.

Key takeaways

Gold’s resilience in late 2025 isn’t a mystery - it’s a message analysts expressed. The same institutions that once trusted U.S. Treasuries are now buying bullion to insure against policy, politics, and uncertainty. Traders may fade the rally, but central banks aren’t flinching. As the Fed navigates a divided policy outlook and global reserves continue to shift eastward, the floor under gold looks as firm as the hands holding it.

Bitcoin’s harsh reset has arrived. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has shed nearly a third of its value since its October peak, slipping toward critical technical levels as exchange-traded fund outflows and macroeconomic headwinds take effect. 

Recent data showed nearly $3 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs this month alone, turning the same institutional flows that once fuelled the rally into a feedback loop of redemptions and retreat.

Behind the selloff lies a mix of fading Fed-rate-cut hopes, tightening liquidity, and a market paralysed by “extreme fear”. With prices hovering near $85,600 and the one-year low at $74,000 looming, the question is simple but urgent: is this correction a passing flush - or the start of a deeper shift in Bitcoin’s new ETF era?

What’s driving Bitcoin’s correction

Bitcoin’s 30% slide isn’t being driven by scandal or shock - it’s the result of structural forces finally reversing, according to analysts. After two years of relentless inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now experiencing capital outflows. Institutional investors, once hailed as crypto’s stabilisers, are showing how quickly sentiment turns when markets wobble.

According to Farside data, ETF redemptions have occurred on all but four days this month, stripping nearly $3 billion in net outflows.

Part of that retreat stems from shifting macro conditions. The Federal Reserve’s reluctance to confirm rate cuts has strengthened the US dollar, drawing liquidity away from speculative assets. 

Past movements have shown that a stronger dollar typically weighs on Bitcoin, and with inflation readings still sticky, traders are reassessing the narrative of “easy money” returning in December. The result is a market where rallies are met with selling rather than enthusiasm - a sharp turn from the euphoria that drove Bitcoin to $126,000 just weeks ago.

Why it matters

Bitcoin’s selloff is revealing just how tightly traditional and digital markets are now intertwined. ETFs opened the floodgates for institutional exposure, but they also linked Bitcoin to broader risk trends. When investors pull money from ETF products, the effect ricochets through liquidity pools and sentiment alike. 

As Matt Williams of Luxor explained, “The drop to $86,000 is largely driven by macro forces - rate expectations, inflation - and by large holders cutting exposure after breaking key technical supports.”

For traders, this is a psychological turning point. The same retail crowd that once flooded exchanges during Thanksgiving 2017 - when Bitcoin first crossed $10,000 - is largely silent now. 

Social data from Santiment shows sentiment evenly split between predictions of a plunge below $70,000 and wild optimism for a rally to $130,000. The divide signals indecision, not conviction. In this phase, fear - not fundamentals - is setting the tone.

Impact on markets and investors

The selloff has spilled beyond the crypto space. Bitcoin’s correlation with equity indices, such as the Nasdaq 100, has climbed above 0.8 at times, meaning that moves in tech stocks and digital assets now feed off the same macro triggers. When rate optimism fades, both markets suffer. That link cuts against Bitcoin’s long-standing claim as a hedge against monetary risk.

ETF outflows are another pressure point. As funds are redeemed, liquidity providers are compelled to unwind their positions in futures and spot markets, thereby deepening volatility. 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plunged to 14 this week - its lowest since February - underscores how rapidly sentiment has deteriorated. Analysts like Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets warn that momentum, money flow, and volume trends “all reflect a sharp deterioration in sentiment,” driven by macro tightening and risk-off positioning.

In the background, liquidity providers are struggling. Tom Lee of Fundstrat compared crypto market makers to “central banks” of digital liquidity - and right now, those banks are running dry. 

Following October’s $20 billion liquidation wave, market makers are operating with smaller balance sheets, which limits their ability to absorb order flow. It’s a reminder that crypto’s plumbing, though more sophisticated, is still fragile.

Expert outlook

Analysts are torn between caution and curiosity. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau describes the current landscape as a “bull-bear tug of war,” with macroeconomic pessimism offset by resilience in the tech sector. 

Nvidia’s earnings beat briefly lifted risk appetite, but Bitcoin failed to follow through, suggesting traders are still unwinding rather than reloading. Puckrin pegs the next resistance at $107,500, if a rebound can gain traction.

Andre Dragosch of Bitwise sees parallels to past mid-cycle corrections, noting that the depth and duration of this decline “remain consistent with interim pullbacks in previous bull markets.” His base case still anticipates the cycle extending into 2026, driven by gradual global monetary easing. 

For now, though, short-term risk remains tilted lower, with $85,600 and $74,000 as the two critical levels to watch. Hold those, and Bitcoin could form a base; lose them, and the next flush could be swift.

The bigger picture: Could Bitcoin trigger a financial crisis?

Despite the panic, Bitcoin remains relatively small compared to the real financial system. The total crypto market stands around $3–4 trillion, with Bitcoin representing roughly half. In contrast, global financial assets exceed $400 trillion. Past collapses, such as FTX in 2022 and Terra in 2021, caused chaos within the crypto industry but barely rippled across global markets.

That said, every cycle pulls crypto closer to traditional finance. ETFs, corporate holdings, and stablecoins backed by US Treasuries have created real linkages. A severe Bitcoin crash could trigger ETF redemptions, hurt balance sheets at companies holding BTC, and pressure stablecoins to liquidate their Treasury assets. None of that would cause a 2008-style crisis today - but as the overlap grows, the line between “crypto crash” and “financial contagion” gets thinner.

Bitcoin technical insights

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around the $84,200 mark after an extended downtrend. The RSI has plunged sharply into oversold territory, signalling intense bearish momentum and the potential for a short-term relief bounce if buyers step in.

A death cross - where the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average - reinforces the bearish bias, suggesting further downside pressure in the near term.

Key resistance levels sit at $106,260, $115,200, and $123,950, where traders may expect profit-taking or renewed buying interest if recovery attempts occur. Failure to reclaim these zones could see Bitcoin remain under pressure, with sentiment staying fragile amid persistent selling.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin’s decline isn’t an accident - it’s a stress test of its new reality. The ETF era has tied the cryptocurrency closer to the global financial system, for better and worse. Liquidity, once a tailwind, now cuts both ways. Fear dominates, but deep corrections are part of Bitcoin’s DNA.

If those two lines - $85,600 and $74,000 - hold firm, many say this reset may end up looking like just another cleansing phase before the next wave of institutional demand. Lose them, and Bitcoin’s harsh reset could turn into something much deeper.