According to reports, the dollar’s rate-cut reckoning is now the defining force in EUR/USD, with traders pushing expectations for a December Federal Reserve cut to more than 85%, up sharply from 39% just a week earlier. What began as a quiet Thanksgiving week has turned into the dollar’s steepest weekly decline in four months, reshaping the balance of power across major currency pairs.

EUR/USD is rising not because the euro has rediscovered its strength, but because the dollar is losing the policy advantage it has enjoyed for most of the year. As markets confront the prospect of a softer Fed and political pressure on the institution intensifies, the pair is becoming a barometer for how much credibility the central bank is willing to risk in the months ahead.

What’s driving EUR/USD right now?

The Fed sits squarely at the centre of the story. Rate expectations have shifted at a pace not seen since early summer, with futures markets now assuming a December cut as the most likely outcome. Reuters reported a series of softer labour market indicators, dovish public remarks from key policymakers, and increased speculation around Kevin Hassett’s potential nomination as the next Fed Chair have accelerated the move. Thin U.S. liquidity over the Thanksgiving holiday added fuel, allowing even modest data points to push the dollar lower.

This recalibration has allowed EUR/USD to climb despite Europe’s mixed economic backdrop. The dollar index, still hovering near 99.72, is heading for its worst weekly performance since late July. 

The euro briefly touched a 1½-week high of $1.1613 before easing, supported more by dollar fatigue than by renewed optimism in the eurozone. Even so, the narrowing of U.S.–European rate differentials has created space for euro bulls to test higher levels, something that looked unlikely just two weeks ago.

Why the dollar is facing its own reckoning

Political pressure is becoming an increasingly prominent part of the narrative. President Donald Trump has renewed calls for deeper rate cuts, arguing that the Fed must “move quickly” to support economic momentum. 

The possibility that Kevin Hassett - a prominent advocate of looser policy - could become the next Fed Chair has forced traders to reassess the institution’s independence and long-term trajectory. Markets are now questioning whether December’s cut is simply another precaution or the start of a strategically driven easing cycle.

At the macro level, the dollar’s credibility premium is also being tested. Barclays’ global head of FX strategy, Themos Fiotakis, argued that Europe had benefited in recent months from supportive rate differentials and improving sentiment, but warned that these assumptions are now under reassessment. The euro’s valuation remains high by several metrics, while the U.S. economy continues to show pockets of resilience, particularly in services. The dollar’s decline, therefore, reflects less a loss of faith and more a repricing of what the next policymaking regime might look like.

What this means for EUR/USD traders

Positioning in EUR/USD has turned decisively constructive, according to analysts. With holiday-thinned liquidity amplifying moves, traders have been quick to unwind long-USD positions accumulated during the autumn rally. The shift has also been visible in cross-asset markets: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields briefly dipped below 4% before rebounding, while German bunds held steady, creating a more supportive environment for the euro.

For corporates, the recalibration matters. European exporters face a marginally stronger currency, which could tighten their margins if the trend persists, while importers benefit from reduced dollar-denominated costs. For investors, the EUR/USD is becoming a call on relative credibility: whether the Fed’s pivot is justified by economic factors or shaped by politics - and whether the European Central Bank can maintain stability as global conditions change.

The geopolitical backdrop adds another layer, analysts added. Markets are tracking every incremental update on Ukraine peace negotiations, with Vladimir Putin signalling that draft proposals could form the basis of future talks. While analysts caution against expecting a rapid “peace premium”, even the possibility of de-escalation has helped cap dollar demand against the euro.

Expert outlook

In the near term, market watchers stated the EUR/USD will remain closely tied to U.S. policy signals. A confirmed December rate cut, reinforced by dovish messaging, could send the pair back toward 1.17. But any upside surprise in U.S. labour or inflation data would temper enthusiasm and reintroduce volatility, particularly for leveraged positions - something traders often evaluate beforehand using the Deriv trading calculator to manage risk.

Medium-term dynamics remain more uncertain. The eurozone continues to wrestle with uneven growth and limited fiscal momentum, which could limit the sustainability of any rally built solely on dollar weakness. At the same time, bond markets remain a crucial indicator: if the U.S. 10-year yield breaks back above 4.1%, the dollar could regain some cyclically driven strength, according to experts. 

The next trigger may come from a combination of Fed rhetoric, incoming U.S. data, and developments in Eastern Europe, all of which have the potential to redirect EUR/USD in the weeks ahead.

EUR/USD technical insights

At the start of writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1585, moving sideways within a well-defined range. The pair continues to face overhead pressure from the 1.1650 resistance level, where traders may look for profit-taking or renewed buying if the price can break convincingly above it. On the downside, the first key support level sits at 1.1565, followed by a stronger base at 1.1448. A break below either level is likely to trigger sell liquidations and deeper downside momentum.

The price remains contained within the Bollinger Bands, indicating a market lacking strong directional conviction. This consolidative structure suggests EUR/USD may continue chopping within the range unless a macro catalyst - such as ECB or Fed commentary - forces a breakout.

The RSI is nearly flat, sitting around 44, close to the midline and signalling neutral momentum. Neither bulls nor bears currently dominate, reinforcing the idea that the pair is in a holding pattern while awaiting its next decisive move.

Key takeaway

EUR/USD is climbing because the dollar is undergoing a policy reckoning shaped by rapid shifts in rate expectations and rising political influence. The euro may not have a strong domestic story, but the repricing of U.S. monetary credibility has given it new momentum. The next leg depends on the Fed's decision in December, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical developments. Traders on Deriv MT5 will closely watch those catalysts as they adjust their strategies.

Silver quietly outshines gold - but can the run continue? Recent data showed the metal has climbed more than 7% this week, pushing XAG/USD to within a whisker of its record high as thin Thanksgiving liquidity magnifies every move. Gold, usually the headline act, has seen its volatility fade, yet silver is stealing the show with a surge that looks anything but seasonal.

Market watchers expressed the forces behind this breakout are real: weak US retail sales, collapsing consumer expectations, and an 84% market-implied probability of a December Fed cut have turbocharged demand for haven assets. Traders are now weighing whether this surge reflects a temporary holiday dislocation or the early stages of a structural re-rating. That question - whether silver’s outperformance can endure - sets the tone for the rest of the market analysis.

What’s driving silver’s surge?

Silver’s latest rally sits at the intersection of macro stress and thinning liquidity. US retail sales have increased nominally since 2021, signalling a stalled consumer engine that leaves little room for growth. The Conference Board’s expectations index has plunged to 63.2, a level that has historically preceded recessions, reinforcing the rush into defensive assets.

With investors reassessing the path of US demand, metals sensitive to economic shifts have reacted quickest - silver most of all.

The Federal Reserve’s pivot has accelerated this shift. Markets have rapidly repriced the odds of a rate cut, jumping from 50% to 84% in a matter of days.

Comments from New York Fed President John Williams and other officials have signalled readiness to ease if momentum continues to weaken. As Treasury yields retreat towards one-month lows and the dollar softens, non-yielding assets enjoy an outsized advantage. Silver’s leverage to these conditions helps explain why its move has been so immediate - and so dramatic.

Why it matters

According to analysts, silver’s rise matters not simply because of the speed of the rally but because of what it reflects. Despite gold’s reputation as the ultimate haven, silver has outperformed it by a wide margin, climbing 163% since October 2023 and hitting a record high of $54.38 earlier this month. That outperformance is increasingly difficult for institutions to ignore because silver sits at the crossroads of monetary hedging and industrial utility.

They also warn that the price action is exposing deeper anxieties. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, notes that the market is reacting to “a chorus of dovish remarks” as soft macro indicators pile up. His assessment points to a broader problem: silver is rallying not because growth is strong, but because confidence in the trajectory of the US economy is fading. Metals are absorbing that uncertainty in real time.

Impact on markets and industry

For traders, silver’s surge complicates positioning as markets thin out for the holiday period. Lower participation amplifies intraday moves, making it harder to hedge directional risks. On platforms like Deriv MT5, where execution speed and precise trade sizing are crucial during volatile conditions, this environment requires traders to stay vigilant. Many are increasingly relying on tools such as the Deriv trading calculator to measure potential profit, swap charges, and position exposure before taking on silver’s sharp intraday swings.

But the deeper story sits within the industrial sector. Silver demand from solar panel manufacturing jumped to 243.7 million ounces in 2024, up from 191.8 million in 2023 and more than double the level seen in 2020.

With global solar capacity on track to reach nearly 1,000 GW annually by 2030, demand is expected to rise by another 150 million ounces per year. Supply, however, remains constrained: the majority of global silver output is a byproduct of copper, zinc, lead or gold production, making it slow to adjust to price signals. Mining Technology estimates that global production could fall to 901 million ounces by 2030 - a structural deficit that strengthens the long-term case for higher prices.

Expert outlook

Pro traders expressed the sustainability of silver’s run hangs on three core factors: the Fed’s next move, the trajectory of US consumption, and the pace of industrial expansion. If policymakers confirm the December pivot, the combination of lower yields and a softer dollar could deliver the catalyst needed to take prices into new record territory. And with recession signals flashing more brightly, demand for haven assets is unlikely to evaporate quickly.

Yet nothing is assured. A sudden rebound in consumer activity or an inflation surprise could slow expectations of policy easing. Industrial users may eventually push back against higher prices, although solar demand appears robust enough to absorb short-term volatility. For now, traders are closely monitoring incoming macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve communications. A decisive break above the previous peak could signal that the market sees a fundamentally new pricing regime for silver.

Key takeaway

Silver’s surge is rooted in real economic signals, from weakening US data to rising expectations of near-term rate cuts. The metal has outperformed gold and is now flirting with historic highs, supported by both haven flows and a powerful industrial story. Whether the run continues depends on the Fed’s messaging and the resilience of US households, but the broader trend points towards tightening supply and enduring demand. The next few weeks will reveal whether silver is merely rallying - or repricing for a new cycle altogether.

Silver technical insights

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $53.79, pushing aggressively higher as it approaches the major $54.22 resistance level. This zone is likely to attract profit-taking, though a clean breakout could spark fresh momentum buying given the strength of the current rally.

On the downside, key supports sit at $50.00 and $47.00. A move back below either would indicate fading bullish pressure and could trigger sell liquidations or a deeper retracement, especially if price slips through the midpoint of the Bollinger Band channel.

Momentum remains strong, with the RSI rising sharply to around 80, firmly in overbought territory. This signals that buyers are in control but also warns of potential short-term exhaustion. While the uptrend remains intact, silver may be vulnerable to pullbacks or sideways consolidation if overbought conditions persist.

Bitcoin’s redemption arc has arrived in full view as the world’s largest cryptocurrency claws back above $90,000, raising the question of whether this breakout can truly hold. The move follows a sharp rebound from the ~$80,400 trough seen only days earlier, driven largely by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in December and a broader shift back toward risk assets, according to reports. 

Yet Bitcoin’s rally sits on fragile ground, with spot ETFs still experiencing weak inflows and month-on-month performance showing BTC down nearly 19%, underscoring the uneven footing behind the bounce.

Analysts expressed that this tension between renewed optimism and deteriorating liquidity now defines the market’s mood. If Bitcoin is to transform this recovery into something durable, it must overcome stiff resistance in the $92,000–$95,000 zone and attract a decisive return of retail volume and ETF participation. Whether those conditions emerge - or whether the breakout fades into another corrective downswing - will determine the next chapter in Bitcoin’s so-called redemption arc.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s latest move

Bitcoin’s latest ascent has been powered in part by shifting macro expectations. Traders are now assigning higher odds to a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which is helping fuel a rebound in risk appetite across equities and cryptocurrency markets. 

This shift in sentiment helped BTC reclaim the $90,000 handle after falling to the $80,000 region last week. Yet the backdrop is more complicated: inflation remains elevated, prompting analysts at QCP Capital to caution that “supply is likely to cap BTC in the mid-$90Ks,” suggesting the rally may be nearing exhaustion. 

The ETF landscape adds another layer. After weeks of record outflows, U.S. bitcoin ETFs have struggled to attract consistent inflows. Analysts note that liquidity remains thin, and investor demand remains hesitant. 

MicroStrategy - one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders - has only just neared break-even levels and is now on MSCI’s delisting watchlist, amplifying uncertainty over institutional exposure. These stresses remain beneath the surface, even as prices recover, revealing a rally built more on macro positioning than strong capital inflows.

Why it matters

The divergence between price action and structural metrics has become a focal point for investors. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, notes that Bitcoin’s typical correlation with the Nasdaq has weakened in recent weeks, as BTC has declined more rapidly than major tech benchmarks.

This decoupling raises questions about crypto-specific liquidity issues at a time when equities are stabilising. Meanwhile, analysts at 10X Research warn the market may be placing too much faith in a December rate cut. Their work suggests that Bitcoin reacts more to the Fed’s communication and tone than to actual policy moves. 

If Powell signals caution or downplays the pace of future easing, markets could reverse quickly. The firm also challenges assumptions around Treasury General Account (TGA) spending as a catalyst for crypto liquidity, noting that previous TGA releases took up to two months to filter into Bitcoin’s price - if at all.

Impact on industry, markets, and consumers

Recent data revealed, Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 may have restored some psychological confidence, but the structural picture remains uneven. The asset is still down 5% year-to-date, and ETF products only recently stabilised after heavy outflows that contributed to BTC’s fall to around $80K. The rebound has offered relief, but the market is far from signalling a clean upward trend.

Institutional flows offer glimmers of a shift. VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani said spot ETFs saw inflows on Tuesday for the first time in weeks - “an early sign that institutional liquidity is returning.” Traders monitoring price behavior through Deriv MT5 have noted the importance of $90,000 as a structural pivot, with shorter timeframes showing volatility between bullish attempts and profit-taking waves. Meanwhile, the Deriv trading calculator has become increasingly useful for traders looking to estimate position costs and risk as BTC flirts with major resistance.

According to market watchers, Bitcoin’s performance continues to influence the broader digital asset complex. A decisive hold above $ 90,000 could boost liquidity across altcoin and stablecoin markets. A breakdown of risks could reignite forced selling and erode confidence across the sector.

Expert outlook

QCP Capital sees a clear resistance band forming between $92,000 and $95,000, warning that shrinking liquidity could limit any attempt to push higher. They identify the $80,000 –$82,000 range as a crucial support area that buyers defended during the latest sell-off. Analysts at 10X Research add that if historical TGA-liquidity lags hold, Bitcoin may consolidate into late January 2026, reducing the odds of a swift breakout.

Not all strategists believe a bottom has been reached. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel argues that bear markets often feature “swift relief rallies followed by aggressive selling into strength.” He wants to see net accumulation from long-term holders and more assertive short-positioning in futures markets before turning constructive. Without these signals, Engel identifies a risk that BTC may encounter heavy resistance if it approaches $92,000-$95,000, potentially triggering a renewed downturn.

Key takeaway

Analysts note, Bitcoin’s climb back above $90,000 marks a symbolic turning point in its ongoing redemption arc, but the foundations of this rally remain thin. Resistance near $92,000 –$95,000, weak ETF inflows, and a historically fragile year-end liquidity backdrop all challenge the sustainability of the breakout. 

The next phase will depend on how markets digest the Fed's December messaging, whether retail traders return, and whether institutional inflows strengthen. These forces will determine whether Bitcoin’s revival continues - or stalls at familiar resistance.

Bitcoin technical insights

At the start of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is attempting a recovery from recent lows, trading just above $91,200 after rebounding from the key $84,900 support zone. Holding this level is crucial - a break below it could trigger sell liquidations and reopen the downside trend. On the upside, BTC now faces two important resistance levels: $110,600 and $115,165, where traders may look for profit-taking or renewed buying interest if price can build enough momentum to retest them.

Price action remains contained within the Bollinger Bands, with BTC beginning to push toward the middle band after a prolonged period of weakness. This suggests early signs of stabilisation, though the broader trend still leans cautious until a clean breakout above the resistance zones.

The RSI has risen sharply to around 61, climbing back toward the midline after spending time in oversold conditions. This shift highlights improving bullish momentum, but with plenty of room before overbought levels are reached, suggesting the recovery could have more space to run if buyers continue to step in.

December 2025 is poised to deliver a high-stakes policy showdown between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve, with USD/JPY hovering in a precarious 154–158 band, suggesting intervention is likely. 

As of 27 November 2025, the pair trades around 155.91, down slightly from recent highs near 157.89 but still vulnerable to a break in either direction. A potential BoJ rate hike clashing against near-certain Fed easing could finally tip the scales - yen bulls are banking on a downside rupture, while bears eye a dollar rebound if either central bank disappoints.

The yen’s tightrope: USD/JPY’s November range

USD/JPY has been confined between the 154.00 support price and 158.00 danger zone price through much of November, a tug-of-war between persistent US yield strength propping up the dollar and mounting speculation on policy divergence. 

The upper end-157-158-marks familiar "intervention territory," where Tokyo has deployed verbal and actual yen support in past episodes of rapid depreciation. This range persists amid a backdrop of weak yen-fueled inflation risks in Japan and cooling US data, which is tilting toward Fed cuts.

BoJ: A December hike edges into focus

BoJ rhetoric has sharpened on yen weakness as an inflation accelerant, with import costs now a key concern. A Reuters poll from 11-18 November revealed a slim majority - 53% (43 of 81 economists) - anticipating a 25 basis point hike to 0.75% at the 18-19 December meeting, up from prior surveys. All polled forecasters see at least that level by March 2026.

Easing political friction has helped: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent nod to gradual normalisation, following talks with Governor Kazuo Ueda, has reduced near-term hurdles. Ex-BoJ insiders echo this, citing current levels as a catalyst for action sooner than later.

Fed: Overwhelming odds on a December cut

Market pricing leans heavily toward Fed easing, with the CME FedWatch Tool data as of 26 November showing an 84.9% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the 10 December FOMC meeting. 

This reflects softer US indicators, including recent jobs data that hasn't derailed cut expectations despite some internal Fed debate. Such a move would trim the US–Japan yield gap modestly, offering tailwinds to the yen independent of BoJ moves.

Why it matters

The December decisions will determine whether the yen’s months-long stasis finally resolves into a trend - a critical shift for traders, Japanese policymakers, and multinational firms managing currency exposure. A break from the 154–158 range would influence capital flows, hedging strategies, and carry-trade dynamics at a time when global FX volatility is already rising.

For Japan, the stakes are especially high. A stronger yen would ease imported inflation and energy-cost pressures, while a renewed slide would intensify political scrutiny and prompt the Ministry of Finance to consider direct intervention. For the US, the Fed’s decision will signal how confidently it believes inflation is returning to its target, shaping global risk appetite as the year-end approaches.

Breakout scenarios: Two paths for USD/JPY

These outcomes hinge on post-meeting commentary - hawkish BoJ signals or dovish Fed dots could exaggerate moves.

What to monitor closely

• Event timeline: Fed decision on 10 December; BoJ on 18–19 December. 
• Volatility gauges: One- and two-week option-implied vol expected to spike, signaling hedge flows.  
• The intervention threshold of 157–160 remains a political flashpoint for Ministry of Finance action.

USDJPY technical insights

At the start of writing, USD/JPY is trading just below 156, easing slightly after failing to hold levels near the 157.43 resistance zone - an area where traders typically look for profit-taking or fresh upside breakouts. The pair now sits above two key supports at 151.76 and 150.20; slipping below either level could trigger sell liquidations and a deeper corrective move toward the lower Bollinger Band.

Despite the recent pullback, price action remains broadly constructive, with the pair still riding the middle Band and holding below the short-term moving averages.

The RSI, meanwhile, has dipped gently below 70, signalling that bullish momentum is cooling after a stretch of overbought readings. This soft decline hints at consolidation rather than a full reversal, suggesting the pair may trade sideways while the market waits for new catalysts, such as U.S. data or Bank of Japan commentary, to determine its next leg.

‍

‍

The numbers are staggering. In 2025, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are collectively guiding to $360–400 billion in capital expenditures – a ~60% year-over-year increase, with the overwhelming majority directed toward AI-related infrastructure (data centres, custom silicon, GPU/Trainium clusters).

On 24 November 2025, BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage on Amazon with an Outperform rating and a $320 price target - currently the highest among major brokers and implying ~39% upside from the 26 November close of ~$230.

2025 capex guidance - The big four

Sources: Company filings, earnings calls, BNP Paribas Exane, BBC, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why BNP Paribas exane sees Amazon differently

Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane argue that concerns about Amazon under-investing or being late in AI are “overblown” in light of the company’s disclosed spending and pipeline. Amazon’s finance team has discussed a 2025 capex outlook of roughly $125B, with expectations for a higher figure in 2026, and has indicated that the vast majority is focused on AI-focused infrastructure such as data centres, networking and in-house accelerators for AWS.​

The note highlights several points that differentiate Amazon in this capex cycle:

• Vertical integration: By designing its own AI chips such as Trainium and Inferentia, management has indicated potential cost and efficiency benefits relative to relying solely on third-party GPUs, which could help with both pricing and capacity flexibility over time.​

• Multiple monetisation channels: The AI infrastructure is positioned to support not only AWS enterprise and government workloads but also improvements in advertising relevance, logistics optimisation, and consumer-facing services, giving Amazon several ways to translate infrastructure into revenue.​

• Long-term margin narrative: The firm’s thesis references scenarios where AWS growth re-accelerates into the mid-20% range and advertising grows at 20–25%+ annually, contributing to potential group-level operating margin expansion over a multi-year horizon, though actual outcomes will depend on execution and demand.​

Key investor debates & risks

Upcoming catalysts/data points

• AWS re:Invent - early December 2025

Market participants will likely watch for announcements on new AI services, model offerings, and capacity expansions, as well as customer case studies that illustrate production-scale workloads.

• Amazon Q4 2025 results - expected late January / early February 2026

Key metrics to watch include AWS revenue growth rates, segment operating income, and management commentary on AI-driven demand and 2026 capex plans.

• Peer earnings and updated guidance - early 2026

Earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta in early 2026 are expected to provide fresh details on capex trajectories, AI product adoption, and how each company is balancing investment with free cash flow.

These events may offer more clarity on how quickly AI investments are translating into revenue and whether capex levels remain elevated, moderate, or increase further in 2026.

Amazon technical insights

At the start of writing, Amazon (AMZN) is trading near $229, recovering modestly from recent lows while holding above key supports at $218.45 and $213. A drop below these zones could trigger sell liquidations, while a push higher puts the $250.15 resistance level back in focus - an area where traders may take profits or look for renewed buying.

The RSI remains flat around 50, signalling neutral momentum and suggesting the market is still searching for direction after the recent pullback.

XRP’s price outlook has become unusually tense as the surge in ETF momentum is now running headfirst into a wave of heavy sell-offs. The token should be rising on the back of multiple U.S. ETF approvals on 21 November - some of which pulled in over $50 million in first-day trading volume, according to market analyst Eric Balchunas- yet XRP instead slipped to 2.18, down from highs of 2.29, amid broader crypto selloffs. This contradiction between structural progress and market pressure is defining the current landscape.

The clash raises a sharp question for investors: does the arrival of regulated ETF flows represent the foundation of a long-term revaluation, or will persistent selling overwhelm sentiment and drag the market toward a deeper reset? XRP now sits at a technical and psychological turning point, and the resolution of this tension will shape its next major move.

What’s driving XRP’s latest shift?

According to reports, XRP’s recent price dynamics are being shaped by two competing narratives. On one side, analysts who have long championed ambitious targets - such as 24HrsCrypto and Black Swan Capitalist founder Versan Aljarrah - continue to argue that XRP’s value is ultimately tied to global settlement demand rather than retail hype. 

Their view is that Bitcoin rises on speculation, while XRP’s long-term upside depends on “utility, settlement demand, and global liquidity needs.” These analysts maintain that patient accumulation and institutional adoption remain central to XRP’s value creation.

That theme collided with a major regulatory development: the formal approval of multiple U.S. XRP ETFs. The NYSE certification of Franklin Templeton’s ETF and the launch of products by Bitwise, 21Shares, and others created a clean, compliant gateway for traditional investors. 

Early inflows reflect genuine interest - Bitwise recorded $22 million in opening-day volume, while Canary Capital’s XRPC product posted $58 million, one of the strongest starts of the year. These products broaden XRP’s potential demand base even though the spot market remains volatile.

Why it matters

Market analysts stated that ETF approvals represent a structural boost for XRP’s long-term credibility. Bitwise described its own ETF debut as a “historic moment,” highlighting that regulated products carry weight with financial advisers and pension managers still cautious about digital assets. These investors often decide months after regulatory approval, suggesting that meaningful inflows may materialise in 2026 as portfolio frameworks adjust. 

But near-term sentiment tells a different story. XRP’s drop below $2 despite the ETF milestone shows how fragile the immediate market environment remains. Glassnode data indicates that 41.5% of the circulating supply is currently at a loss, creating pressure as traders capitulate. 

Whale activity intensified the decline, with over 200 million XRP sold within two days of the ETF news. This divergence between structural gains and short-term weakness is now central to XRP’s outlook.

Impact on markets and investors

From recent reports, Ripple’s institutional strategy adds another dimension to XRP’s trajectory. The company’s $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, rebranded as Ripple Prime, marks the first time a crypto-native company has owned a global, multi-asset prime broker. 

The platform clears $3 trillion annually, and Ripple executives report significant growth since the acquisition. XRP and RLUSD are set to be deployed as collateral for institutional clients, signalling a push to anchor the token within professional trading and settlement infrastructure. 

Watchers consider this shift crucial because prime brokerage acts as the nerve centre of institutional capital flow. Embedding XRP into collateral and settlement channels strengthens liquidity pathways that do not rely on retail enthusiasm. Hidden Road’s rapid expansion suggests demand for compliant digital-asset tooling continues to rise. For investors, this creates the unusual scenario where fundamental plumbing improves even as the short-term chart weakens, a pattern common in transitional market phases.

Expert outlook

Technical analysts describe XRP as approaching a pivotal threshold. Regaining $2.195 would signal stabilisation and could open a path towards $2.6, while losing $2 risks a drop towards $1.5, where long-term investors might attempt to reaccumulate. The once-popular $3.6 target now looks distant unless broader crypto sentiment reverses.

The long-term debate remains polarised. Supporters of the $100 thesis argue that XRP’s future rests on liquidity rails and institutional settlement rather than speculation cycles. Critics maintain that real inflows may not emerge until advisers and regulated funds allocate in earnest - likely in 2026. Macro headwinds and Bitcoin’s direction remain critical: a market-wide rebound could amplify ETF demand, while continued weakness may keep XRP pinned near support.

Key takeaway

Many say, XRP’s outlook is shaped by a clash between ETF-driven optimism and pressure from heavy sell-offs. Analysts have expressed the underlying ecosystem is strengthening through institutional integration; however, the price remains vulnerable as whales distribute and macroeconomic conditions weigh on risk assets. The next major move hinges on whether XRP can reclaim the $2 region, attract sustained ETF inflows, and ride any broader crypto rebound. The balance of these forces will define the trajectory into 2026.

XRP technical insights

At the start of writing, XRP/USD is hovering around $2.1800, trading between key resistance at $2.6480 and strong support at $1.9569. A break below support could trigger sell liquidations, while moves above $2.6480 or $3.0400 may attract profit-taking or fresh buying interest.

The RSI is rising gently from the midline at around 54, signalling a mild recovery in momentum but not yet indicating overbought conditions.

Google has been criticised for years for lagging behind OpenAI, especially after ChatGPT exploded in late 2022 and reshaped the AI landscape. Yet the company’s recent streak of breakthroughs has triggered a dramatic reappraisal. 

At the centre of this shift is Gemini 3, Google’s newest flagship AI model, which has impressed analysts with its performance in reasoning, coding and specialised tasks that traditionally stump chatbots. As demand grows for both cloud compute and Google’s custom AI chips, investors are beginning to question whether Google’s comeback is already underway - and whether the AI race is entering a new phase.

What’s driving Google’s resurgence

Alphabet has gained substantially since mid-October, sending shares to $323.64 and bringing it within reach of the $4 trillion club. 

Google’s return to form is rooted in a combination of technical breakthroughs and strategic repositioning. The launch of Gemini 3 captured global attention after the model surged to the top of AI leaderboards such as LMArena and Humanity’s Last Exam, winning praise from analysts and technologists for its reasoning ability and performance on complex science tasks 

Its improved reliability in generating images with accurate embedded text - a challenge that has plagued many chatbots - signals a maturity necessary for enterprise adoption. At the same time, Google has refreshed its AI product suite, including updates to its viral Nano Banana generator, which reinforces momentum across both consumer and developer segments.

The second force propelling Google forward is its deep investment in infrastructure. Once criticised for falling behind Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia, the company now benefits from rising demand for Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) - a specialised chip architecture Google has refined for over a decade. 

Reports that Meta is in talks to deploy Google’s chips in its data centres by 2027 triggered a rally in Alphabet stock, demonstrating that Google’s hardware ecosystem may finally offer a meaningful alternative to Nvidia’s dominant GPUs. Partnerships with Anthropic - potentially involving up to 1 million TPUs - further signal a structural shift in AI compute preferences.

Why it matters

Google’s resurgence has implications far beyond its own balance sheet. As Neil Shah of Counterpoint Research put it, “Google has arguably always been the dark horse in this AI race — a sleeping giant now fully awake.” . If Gemini 3 continues to outperform expectations, it may reshape competitive dynamics between the three pillars of modern AI: OpenAI for model innovation, Nvidia for hardware, and Microsoft for cloud and enterprise distribution. A strengthened Google challenges this equilibrium, creating new strategic options for companies seeking alternatives to Nvidia’s high-cost GPUs or Microsoft’s deep integrations with OpenAI.

The return of competitive balance is also important for consumers and regulators. Google escaped the most severe outcome in a US antitrust case partly because AI competition has intensified. If Google proves it can innovate at scale, it may relieve pressure on regulators while accelerating the adoption of AI products beyond search advertising. 

Units like Waymo, which is expanding into multiple cities and now supports highway driving, illustrate how Alphabet’s deep research pipeline fuels progress beyond software. The question is whether Google can convert technical superiority into commercial leadership - something it has historically struggled with outside advertising.

Impact on industry, markets and consumers

Google’s ascent poses both opportunity and disruption across the tech landscape. Nvidia, which lost $150 billion in market value on the day Meta’s chip discussions were reported, now contends with the prospect of a viable alternative for certain AI workloads. While Nvidia insists its GPUs remain the industry’s Swiss Army knife - flexible, widely supported, and essential for model training - TPUs give Google a niche advantage. As ASIC-based designs gain traction, analysts expect custom silicon to grow faster than the GPU market over the next several years.

This shift has a significant impact on the broader cloud industry. Google Cloud, which generated $15.2 billion in third-quarter revenue - up 34% year-on-year - remains behind AWS and Microsoft Azure, but the demand for generative-AI compute is narrowing the gap. 

Companies attracted by TPUs' cost efficiency may choose Google Cloud for specialised workloads, while still relying on Nvidia GPUs for general tasks. For consumers, the competition translates into better AI experiences: models with stronger reasoning, fewer errors, and safer behaviour.

Across financial markets, Alphabet’s rally affects index weightings and rotation patterns. As traders reassess Google’s valuation, volatility in Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Meta increases - creating opportunities for directional and event-driven strategies on platforms like Deriv MT5, where both tech stocks and index CFDs see heightened activity during AI-driven shifts. Tools such as the Deriv Trading Calculator help quantify margin impact and manage exposure as market reactions intensify.

Expert outlook

Forecasts for Google’s next phase remain divided. Some analysts argue that Google’s resurgence marks a long-awaited payoff from its “full-stack” strategy - controlling data, models, chips, cloud and applications. CEO Sundar Pichai emphasised during the last earnings call that this unified approach “really plays out” when scaling frontier models that integrate reasoning, multimodal capabilities and advanced coding. If Google continues to refine its ecosystem, it could rival or surpass OpenAI in enterprise adoption while weakening Nvidia’s dominance in hardware.

Yet uncertainties persist. Data revealed consumer adoption of Gemini still lags behind that of ChatGPT, with 650 million users compared to ChatGPT's 800 million weekly users, and monthly downloads of 73 million, which trail ChatGPT’s 93 million. Google Cloud, although accelerating, is still half the size of AWS and Azure. 

It was noted that if Google cannot convert its technological strength into sustained commercial traction, the gap could widen again. Much will depend on whether Meta and other AI-intensive companies formalise their TPU commitments and whether Gemini 3 continues outperforming rivals in real-world deployments. The next six to nine months will be decisive, according to analysts.

Key takeaway

For market watchers, Google’s rapid AI resurgence suggests the company has moved far beyond its defensive posture of recent years. Gemini 3’s strong performance, rising TPU adoption and fresh cloud momentum have revived Alphabet’s standing in the global AI race. Yet the outcome is far from settled. 

The next phase hinges on whether Google can scale its breakthroughs commercially while sustaining hardware and model performance. Traders and analysts await confirmation from enterprise adoption, chip-supply agreements and quarterly cloud-revenue growth - the indicators that will decide whether this comeback becomes a lasting transformation.

Alphabet technical insights

At the start of writing, Alphabet (GOOG) has broken into a price discovery zone above $323, signalling strong bullish momentum after an extended run along the upper Bollinger Band. Key supports sit at $268.75 and $240, where a drop below either level could trigger sell liquidations or deeper pullbacks.

The RSI, now around 74, is approaching overbought territory, highlighting stretched conditions that may lead to short-term cooling or consolidation, even as the broader trend remains firmly upward.

Imagine waking up to headlines screaming 'Gold Smashes Past $4,300,' and no, it’s not a dream; it has been the reality of October 2025. Now, November’s keeping the momentum alive with prices hovering near $4,132 as of 25 November 2025. If you’re wondering whether this shiny metal remains a smart addition to your financial mix, stick around. We’re breaking down the fresh data, historical peaks, and practical takeaways without the hype.

Why is gold climbing so sharply in late 2025?

The gold spot price breached $4,100 per ounce on November 24, a 1.65% increase from the prior day, driven by investor bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts amid cooling inflation signals. This isn't random volatility; it's a response to broader economic jitters. Geopolitical tensions, like ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks, add a layer of safe-haven demand, pushing prices up even as crude oil dips on "peace" rumours. 

Breaking it down: Central banks worldwide are projected to acquire over 900  tons of gold in 2025, according to reports, surpassing demand for jewellery and technology. This institutional buying creates a floor under prices - think of it as a global vote of confidence in gold as a hedge against currency wobbles. 

For everyday folks, it means reviewing your asset allocation might reveal whether gold’s 58% year-to-date gain (from -$2,600 in January) aligns better with your risk tolerance now than it did during last year’s flatline.

How close is gold to its historic peaks, and what do the charts say?

Gold’s all-time high? $4,379.13 on October 17, 2025, eclipsing the inflation-adjusted 1980 record of about $3,400 (when an ounce topped $850 nominally). Fast-forward to November: Spot prices traded between $4,046 and $4,145 on 24 November, coiling in a bull pennant pattern on daily charts - a setup that hints at continuation if it breaks upward, based on Kitco’s intra-day analysis.

Visualise this: On a 5-minute Comex futures chart, gold is hugging the 50-period moving average as support around $4,010, with resistance at $4,108. Zoom out to weekly: It’s testing the upper Bollinger Band after a 3.7% monthly rise.

Historically, such consolidations after highs (like the post-2020s $2,070 peak) often precede 10-15% corrections or fresh legs up - a reminder to track these levels when assessing gold’s role in long-term savings, such as in a retirement portfolio.

Expert take: "Gold’s resilience stems from its inverse correlation to real yields,” notes FX Empire analyst Yoav Niv, who points to the metal’s consolidation amid delayed U.S. data releases. Actionable angle? If inflation reports this week nudge yields lower, gold could revisit its October high - use that as a cue to compare gold’s performance against your bond or cash holdings.

Gold’s role in everyday portfolios

Hypothetically, let’s consider a mid-40s couple in Chicago, facing 7% inflation that ate into their savings in 2024. So, they shifted 5% of their nest egg to a gold ETF in early 2025; by November, that slice would have grown 58%, offsetting spikes in grocery and housing costs. Nothing magical here, but gold acting as a diversifier when stocks wobble.

Or take an example of a small business like a jeweller who rode out November’s uptick by locking in supplier rates at $4,000, buffering against dollar strength that hammered imports. The insight? Gold isn’t just for vaults; it’s a tool for smoothing cash flow volatility. 

Scan your expenses - if currency fluctuations hit suppliers or travel, a modest gold exposure (via accessible ETFs) could stabilise planning without overcomplicating things.

November’s gold action underscores its enduring appeal: a buffer against the unpredictable. Whether eyeing historic charts or current consolidations, the key is integration - weave it into your financial story thoughtfully. 

Gold technical insights

At the start of writing, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,132, maintaining bullish momentum above key supports at $4,037 and $3,940. A sustained move above these levels suggests buyers remain in control, though a drop below either could trigger sell liquidations.

The $4,360 level stands out as a major resistance, where traders may take profits or new buyers could enter on FOMO sentiment. Meanwhile, the RSI has surged to around 77, rising sharply from the midline - a signal of strengthening momentum but also a potential sign of overbought conditions that could invite short-term pullbacks.

This week’s sharp rebound in tech stocks poses a compelling question: Is this more than just a bounce? With the Nasdaq Composite jumping 2.7% and the S&P 500 up roughly 1.5% as investors embraced both AI momentum and hopes for a December rate cut, the tone has shifted, according to reports. 

The deeper issue, however, is whether this marks the beginning of a new tech cycle, underpinned by accelerating AI deployment and cheaper capital, or simply a rally within an existing one. The following insights examine what drives the move, its significance, its impact on markets, and what comes next.

What’s driving the tech stock rally

Market watchers say that at the heart of the current advance lie two forces: renewed confidence in AI-led innovation and fresh traction in monetary policy expectations. On the policy side, signals from the Federal Reserve, including Governor Christopher Waller and President John Williams of the New York Fed, have bolstered expectations for a December rate cut, helping to lift growth-stock valuations. 

The reduction in discount rates on long-term earnings tends to favour tech firms, which rely on high forward-rate growth. Parallel to that, the AI story remains central. Firms such as Alphabet Inc. surged after enthusiasm for its Gemini model, while the “Magnificent Seven” pulled the broader tech cohort higher. 

The market appears to be reconciling the earlier pullback (driven by bubble fears) and repositioning into stocks that benefit from the AI infrastructure build-out, including chips, cloud, and software. The question now is whether this is the launch of a new growth wave or simply the next leg of the existing one.

Why it matters

If tech is entering a new cycle, the implications extend far beyond a handful of large-cap stocks. These companies increasingly lag behind not only in market weight but also in shaping index trajectory, sector rotation, and investor psychology. As one analyst observed: “Scepticism around AI cap-ex might be a contrarian positive” for the trade in the long term. 

For institutional and retail investors alike, the timing could matter: a true cycle shift may favour growth and innovation over value, alter asset-allocation flows, and provide a greater runway for risk assets. Conversely, if this is not a new cycle, then mis­pricing valuations could lead to sharp reversals. For corporates - from chip fabricators to SaaS startups - the cost of capital, demand for AI services, and global semiconductor supply chains all hinge on how the cycle evolves.

Impact on the market and industry

A credible new tech cycle would signal substantial real-world change: surging investment in data-centres, exponential scaling of AI models, and ecosystem shifts toward cloud-native, AI-first companies. We’re seeing some of that. Analysts estimate that AI could add $5-19 trillion in incremental revenue to US companies, although many warn that much of this may already be priced in.

In market terms, a cycle change could reinvigorate under-weight tech portfolios, trigger rotation out of value/cyclicals and reshape the “growth vs. value” trade. For the industry, this means that winners will likely emerge among firms that scale AI profitably, while laggards will face margin pressure, heavier capital expenditure burdens, and competitive erosion. The stakes are high: the surge could be transformative - but the infrastructure and competitive demands are intense.

For the market, that means volatility is likely to stay elevated. Traders balancing positions on platforms like Deriv MT5 can use advanced order types, leverage settings and stop-loss controls to navigate sharp swings. Understanding margin impact and exposure - via the Deriv Trading Calculator - is increasingly essential as the cycle matures.

Expert outlook

Looking ahead, professional traders note that key signals to monitor include inflation trajectories, clarity on Fed policy, earnings from major tech companies, and progress on supply-chain goals in the AI build-out. Markets currently price in a high probability of a December rate cut, but if inflation proves persistent or earnings disappoint, momentum could stall.

Some strategists caution that we may simply be in yet another leg of the initial tech-cycle rather than in the dawn of a fresh era. For instance, Goldman Sachs analysts suggest much of the potential upside from AI is already embedded in current valuations. 

This means that while the upside exists, the risk-reward becomes less attractive. The best scenario: a renewed tech cycle with broad-based participation. The risk: concentrated gains, fading momentum and underlying disillusionment. Either way, the next few months will be critical.

Key takeaway

The surge in tech stocks carries more than a feel-good bounce - it could mark the opening stages of a new cycle where AI deployment and supportive policy drive sustained growth. However, the caveats remain substantial: valuations are stretched, execution risk is real, and macroeconomic headwinds loom. Investors should watch upcoming inflation data, Fed commentary and earnings from tech heavyweights as signals to validate the shift. The moment is promising, but not yet definitive.

Alphabet technical insights

At the start of writing, Alphabet’s stock (GOOG) has entered a price discovery zone above $318, signalling strong bullish momentum. The $280 and $238 levels act as key supports - a break below these zones could trigger sell liquidations or deeper corrections.

Meanwhile, the RSI has climbed to around 74.5, pushing into overbought territory, suggesting that the stock may face short-term profit-taking or consolidation before attempting further upside.