The dollar is being squeezed from both sides of the FX spectrum, forcing traders to reassess familiar year-end dynamics. USDJPY has managed to lift off a two-week low near 154.65 despite rising expectations that the Bank of Japan could deliver a December rate hike - a shift that pushed two-year JGB yields to 1% for the first time since 2008. 

EURUSD, meanwhile, holds steady at the moment, as the dollar index remains around 99.48, threatening a move toward 100.50 if sentiment shifts. This split - a yen supported by policy momentum and a euro holding under broad-dollar positioning - places the greenback at the centre of the pressure. 

With the Fed’s meeting approaching and Japan signalling further normalisation, the next few sessions will decide whether USDJPY can stay anchored above 155 or whether EURUSD’s price action becomes the dominant narrative into year-end.

What’s driving the two pairs’ moves?

Dollar trading is caught between two competing forces. On one side, weak US data has pulled Treasury yields lower, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.2 and Fed rate-cut odds for December are at 87.2%. 

That should, in theory, drag USDJPY down. Yet risk appetite has firmed across Asian equities, limiting the yen’s safe-haven bid and softening the impact of a more hawkish BoJ. This explains why USDJPY has bounced back toward 156 despite the strongest signals in years that Japan may raise rates.

The EURUSD has held above 1.16, despite the pressure on the dollar. Traders are watching whether the dollar index can hold above 99.40, a level that would make the euro more vulnerable to a test of 1.1550. 

Seasonal patterns would normally favour the euro in early and late December, but seasonality struggles for relevance when policy and yield differentials are driving direction.

Why it matters

The dollar squeeze affects more than currency traders. Multinationals hedge their year-end exposures during December, making sharp FX swings particularly disruptive. When USDJPY hovers near 156–158, and EURUSD edges toward 1.1550, corporate hedging models start tightening, often triggering mechanical flows that amplify intraday volatility. One Tokyo-based strategist told Bloomberg this week that “fundamentals and flows are clashing at the worst possible moment,” highlighting how thin liquidity magnifies each incremental move.

For traders, the stakes are even higher. A BoJ rate hike would reverse decades of ultra-loose policy and could send USDJPY sharply lower. Conversely, a softer-than-expected Fed tone may weaken the dollar broad-based and accelerate the euro’s rebound. Both outcomes are plausible, which is why markets are becoming hypersensitive to each data point ahead of the Fed and BoJ decisions.

Impact on markets and traders

Yield dynamics remain the clearest transmission channel. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, which has climbed to a 17-year high, has narrowed the spread with US Treasuries significantly. 

That, according to analysts, reduces one of the structural supports for USDJPY, which explains why the pair struggled to extend its gains above 158 earlier in the quarter. Traders now see the 156 price level as the pivot that will decide whether the latest rebound fades or extends.

EURUSD faces its own structural constraints. The rebound in German yields should lend support to the euro; yet, the pair continues to track shifts in the dollar index more closely than domestic developments. 

According to analysts, a firm break below 1.16 raises the risk of a slide toward 1.1550, and models warn of flash-risk conditions that could push the pair near 1.1500 in thin liquidity. December’s typical euro strength from 22–27 December may help stabilise momentum, but it rarely persists when major policy events intersect with seasonal flows.

Expert outlook

Analysts remain divided on how the dollar squeeze will be resolved. Some expect USDJPY to soften into year-end if the BoJ signals confidence in its inflation outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda has already pointed out that the likelihood of inflation meeting the 2% target is rising, and traders are now pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a December hike. A move of that magnitude would pull USDJPY quickly toward 152, and perhaps 150 if intervention chatter intensifies.

EURUSD’s path hinges almost entirely on the Fed. A December rate cut is nearly fully priced, leaving the dollar vulnerable to a hawkish surprise. If the Fed resists committing to a series of cuts, the dollar could bounce, pushing EURUSD back toward 1.1650 before sellers return. The key is whether the PCE data before the meeting shifts expectations again - or whether the Fed lets markets run ahead of it for now.

USDJPY technical insights

At the start of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 155.77, attempting to stabilise after its recent pullback. The pair remains capped by the 157.40 resistance level - a key zone where profit-taking typically emerges, but a breakout above it could reignite bullish momentum. Immediate downside levels to watch sit at 154.54 and 151.75; a break below either would signal weakening trend strength and could trigger sell liquidations as price slips through the lower Bollinger structure.

Despite the retracement, USD/JPY continues to trade within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact for now. The pair may continue consolidating unless a fresh macroeconomic driver, such as U.S. yields or Bank of Japan commentary, pushes it decisively in either direction.

The RSI has bounced sharply to 64, rising just above the midline after briefly dipping lower. This shift indicates an improvement in bullish momentum, although it has not yet reached overbought levels. The indicator currently supports the idea of a stabilising trend, with room for upside if buyers regain control.

EURUSD technical insights

At the start of writing, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.1614, gradually pushing toward the key 1.1650 resistance zone. This level has repeatedly capped upside moves, making it an area where traders may expect profit-taking or a potential bullish breakout if momentum continues to accelerate. On the downside, immediate supports lie at 1.1550 and 1.1500, with a break below either likely to trigger sell liquidations and extend bearish pressure.

Price remains contained within the upper half of the Bollinger Band range, signalling a modest bullish bias but not yet a decisive trend shift. The pair continues to oscillate within a broad consolidation structure, suggesting that macro catalysts - such as U.S. data or ECB commentary - may be needed to drive a sustained breakout.

The RSI sits flat just above 51, showing neutral-to-slightly bullish momentum. This positioning reinforces the idea of steady but cautious buying interest, with room for further upside if EUR/USD can break cleanly above resistance.

Key takeaway

The dollar is being squeezed from both ends of the FX spectrum as USDJPY wrestles with BoJ tightening expectations and EURUSD absorbs broad-based dollar positioning. Yield shifts and upcoming central-bank decisions will determine which narrative dominates into year-end. Traders should expect volatility as thin liquidity meets major policy risks. The next moves in USDJPY and EURUSD may well define the early 2026 landscape.

Bitcoin sliding below $87,000 feels like the start of a new crypto winter, but the evidence suggests a more brutal, macro-driven reset than the opening chapter of a multi-year freeze. Analysts report that after reaching above $126,000 in October, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has dropped more than 30% in a matter of weeks, with over $200 billion wiped from the broader market as Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies fell 5–10% in a single session

That kind of move is painful and late-cycle, yet it still sits within the range of a violent correction in a long bull phase rather than a definitive turn into a deep, grinding bear market. What has changed is the backdrop. A sharp spike in Japanese bond yields, the slow unwinding of the yen carry trade, record ETF outflows and heavy derivatives liquidations have collided to drain liquidity from one of the most leveraged corners of global markets. 

Whether this becomes a full-blown crypto winter depends less on Bitcoin itself and more on how far global funding costs rise, how quickly investors de-risk, and whether institutional buyers see this as a buying opportunity or a reason to step back further.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s latest slide?

Bitcoin’s drawdown is being driven by macro forces that sit far outside the blockchain. Japan’s government bond market has jolted higher, with 10-year yields surging towards 1.84–1.85% and two-year yields touching 1% for the first time since 2008 after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled a possible rate hike at the 18–19 December meeting. 

That shift threatens to unwind the yen carry trade, where investors have borrowed cheaply in yen for decades and deployed capital into higher-yielding assets worldwide, including US bonds, equities and crypto. According to analysts, as Japanese yields rise and the yen strengthens, those trades become more expensive to sustain, forcing capital back home and reducing global liquidity.

Crypto sits at the sharp end of that adjustment. Over the last major leg down, total market capitalisation dropped by roughly 5% in 24 hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both sliding over 5%. Thousands of traders were liquidated as some $600–$640 million in leveraged positions were wiped out. 

The immediate trigger was a break of support around the high $80,000s, which triggered stop-loss orders and margin calls on overextended long positions. The result was not a slow fade but a cascade: macro stress hit Japanese bonds, risk sentiment cracked, and leverage in the crypto complex did the rest.

Why it matters

As per experts, this episode is significant because it confirms Bitcoin's position in the global hierarchy of assets. Despite talk of “digital gold”, the market continues to treat BTC as a high-beta macro trade, extremely sensitive to shifts in liquidity and funding costs. When traditional markets move into “risk-off” mode, crypto is one of the first places investors reduce exposure. 

The current sell-off is unfolding alongside growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability, record Treasury issuance, and the end of ultra-loose Japanese policy, which together signal that the post-2008 era of cheap leverage is being repriced.

It also lays bare the limits of the new institutional architecture around Bitcoin. Reports indicate that spot ETFs in the United States, which were hailed as the bridge between crypto and mainstream finance, have just recorded their worst month since launch, with around $3.5 billion in net outflows and repeated days of heavy redemptions. 

The flagship IBIT fund alone saw withdrawals exceeding $500 million on its worst single day and more than $2.4 billion over the month, despite remaining one of the most successful ETFs globally in terms of assets and fees. That suggests institutional capital is willing to exit quickly when macro conditions turn, even if it remains structurally interested in Bitcoin over the long run.

Impact on markets, industry and investors

The ETF complex sits at the heart of how this correction is being transmitted. Analysts report that after months of near-constant inflows, the tide has turned: five straight weeks of net redemptions in November, a single day with roughly $900 million heading for the exits, and a notable change in tone from “buy every dip” to “wait for clarity”. 

Bitcoin ETFs still hold over $70 billion in assets and represent a significant share of the total supply, so when they move in one direction for several weeks, they significantly influence price discovery, extending far beyond crypto-native exchanges.

The pressure is broad but uneven across the digital-asset space. Spot Ether ETFs registered around $1.4 billion in outflows over the month, marking their weakest stretch on record, while Solana products experienced more than 20 days of inflows before a new ETF launch led to a sizable single-day withdrawal. XRP vehicles, by contrast, have yet to see any net outflows and have accumulated hundreds of millions in fresh capital, whereas Dogecoin products have disappointed with muted debut volumes. The pattern suggests investors are becoming more selective, rotating away from crowded trades and towards assets perceived as having stronger or cleaner narratives.

On the trading side, the absence of aggressive dip-buyers has been striking. In prior corrections, lower prices were quickly met with demand from both retail and institutional desks eager to “buy the blood”. This time, nervousness ahead of key US data, Federal Reserve communication and the Bank of Japan’s meeting has kept many on the sidelines. With fewer standing bids under the market, leveraged positions have been unwound more violently. That has turned Bitcoin’s usual volatility into something closer to a macro shock absorber for the entire crypto complex.

Expert outlook

Analysts are divided on whether this marks the start of a true crypto winter or a severe shakeout within an ongoing cycle. On one side is the argument that Bitcoin’s surge above $120,000 was always stretched, fuelled by easy liquidity, ETF hype and a reach for yield in a world still adjusting to higher rates. 

From that perspective, a 30% pullback that resets froth and flushes out leverage is not unusual within a broader bull market, especially for an asset as volatile as BTC. The $80,000–$85,000 band now stands out as a key support zone; if it holds and macro conditions stabilise, the recent drop may be remembered as a sharp correction rather than the start of a bear market.

The more bearish camp focuses on the structural shift in global funding. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates and the yen carry trade unwinds more broadly, liquidity could tighten across risk assets for longer than crypto bulls expect, according to analysts. Combined with heavy US debt issuance, a slowing Chinese economy and more cautious central banks, that scenario would leave less room for speculative excess across the board. In that world, Bitcoin might need to reprice to a level that reflects not just its supply schedule and adoption, but also a higher global cost of capital.

What both sides acknowledge is that the days of free money are over. The post-2008 bond bull market, where yields ground lower and leverage got cheaper year after year, looks to have ended. For Bitcoin, that creates a tension between its narrative and its behaviour. It still aspires to be a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement, yet in practice it trades like an amplified expression of risk sentiment. The next year will reveal whether institutional holders are prepared to keep allocating through a choppier macro regime, or whether they treat BTC as just another trade to exit when the cost of carry rises.

Bitcoin technical insights

At the start of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has slipped back toward $85,800, losing momentum after a brief stabilisation phase. The immediate downside focus remains on the key $84,600 support zone - a level where a break could trigger sell liquidations and open the door to deeper declines. Above price, the next major thresholds sit at $101,400 and $116,000, where any recovery rally is likely to encounter profit-taking or renewed buying interest.

Price continues to track the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting persistent bearish pressure and a market still struggling to regain directional strength. Until BTC can reclaim the mid-band and hold above it, the broader trend remains tilted downward.

The RSI has dipped sharply to around 43, reversing from an earlier bounce and sliding back toward the oversold region. This shift signals a weakening of momentum and suggests that sellers remain in control. While oversold conditions could eventually attract bargain hunters, the current setup still favours caution as Bitcoin tests critical support.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s slide below $87,000 feels ominous, but it looks more like a violent macro-driven reset than a clear confirmation that a fresh crypto winter has begun. The move has been driven by rising Japanese yields, a tentative end to the yen carry era, heavy ETF outflows and cascading liquidations, not a loss of faith in the underlying technology. Whether this evolves into a deeper, longer downturn will depend on how far global funding costs rise and how institutions react to a world where money is no longer free. For now, the market is caught between two stories: a maturing asset adapting to a harsher macro climate, and a familiar boom-and-bust cycle that still has another chapter to write.

Gold and silver are breaking records in 2025 because structural demand, policy shifts, and real-world shortages have converged at the same time, pushing both metals to all-time highs. Gold has climbed nearly 60% this year to trade around $4,200 per ounce, after falling below $4,000 in late October/early November. 4000 has psychologically become a price floor in mid-Nov. As of the time of writing, gold is trading in the 4200 range. While silver has almost doubled in 11 months, surging to fresh highs near $56. These moves aren’t speculative bursts - they reflect powerful, overlapping forces reshaping global markets.

A turning point for precious metals

This superperformance has been a key focus in the financial markets in 2025, particularly in stark contrast to historical performance. Central banks are accelerating reserve diversification, while manufacturers that use silver as an input are competing for dwindling physical supplies. Investors are positioning for a world where rate cuts return and geopolitical shocks persist. Understanding this shift is key to seeing where gold and silver may head next - and what their rise signals about the state of the global economy.

What’s driving gold and silver’s breakout

Gold’s ascent in 2025 rests on foundations built over several years. Central bank buying has been a huge propeller of demand in recent months. Over the past 11 months, gold has posted positive returns in 10 of them, helping spot prices soar more than 60% and putting the metal on track for its strongest annual performance in nearly half a century. This is not speculative froth but long-term portfolio insurance against currency volatility, sanctions risk and mounting fiscal strain.

Developments in treasury yields have also been a major driver. Expectations of further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks have pushed real yields lower, weakening the dollar and making non-yielding assets, such as gold, more attractive. 

Investors looking to hedge against sticky inflation, rising deficits and an overconcentrated equity market are finding fewer reliable anchors. Gold, which remains above the psychologically important $4,000 mark, is reasserting itself as the simplest hedge against a complicated economic picture.

Silver’s shortage-driven rally

Silver’s story, though linked to gold’s precious metal rally, has a different story. In just 11 months, the metal has gained approximately 94%, with prices reaching record highs of around $56.60 per ounce. 

Silver’s surge is tied to industrial demand that has grown faster than supply for several years. London vault inventories have declined from approximately 31,000 metric tonnes in mid-2022 to around 22,000 tonnes by early 2025. In October, overnight lease rates spiked to the equivalent of 200% per year as traders scrambled to secure metal - a clear sign of market stress. London’s situation is similar to China’s, as the country also saw its holdings dwindle, as exports reached a record of above 660 tonnes. 

At the same time, India’s surge in seasonal buying and continued strength in solar, electronics and EV manufacturing have absorbed vast quantities of physical metal. When traders start using air freight to meet delivery deadlines, it signals not exuberance but scarcity.

Why it matters

The record-breaking rise in gold and silver is prompting investors to reassess their assumptions about safety, diversification, and value. After a decade where government bonds and US tech stocks dominated the conversation on safe havens, precious metals are stepping back into the role they played during earlier cycles of geopolitical tension and fiscal stress. As UBS noted, “continued dollar weakness, lower real yields and persistent geopolitical risk” have kept gold attractive even during brief swings in market optimism.

For policymakers, the rally carries a clear message: confidence in fiscal discipline and long-term monetary policy is fraying. Gold’s surge towards $4,400 signals concern about deficits, currency debasement and the after-effects of years of quantitative easing. Central banks themselves are adding to their gold reserves while publicly committing to inflation targets - a contradiction that markets have not ignored. Silver’s rise has implications for a different set of stakeholders, from renewable-energy manufacturers to electronics firms, all of whom rely on the metal’s unrivalled conductivity and industrial utility.

Silver’s outperformance is particularly significant for emerging economies such as India, where physical silver remains a preferred form of household savings. Demand tied to cultural traditions, agricultural income cycles and festive seasons has intensified just as global supply tightens. That pressure has pushed local prices to record highs, making silver both a safe haven and a source of financial strain.

Impact on markets, industry and consumers

Financial markets are already feeling the effects of this new precious metals regime. The gold–silver ratio, which started in 2025 above 100, has now fallen to around 75 as silver outpaces gold in percentage terms. 

The ratio is still above its long-term average near 70, suggesting continued room for silver to gain if gold holds steady. This shift has turned the ratio itself into a market signal - a measure of how aggressively investors are rotating into higher-beta hedges.

ETF flows and futures markets have intensified these moves. As spot prices climb, ETFs attract momentum-driven inflows, while leveraged futures positions magnify every surge and correction. Silver is especially prone to violent swings because the underlying market is smaller and more sensitive to forced liquidations. For retail investors, this creates a mix of opportunity and risk: silver can deliver outsized gains in a strong market but can unwind quickly when sentiment reverses.

The industrial economy faces more direct pressure. Global silver demand for industrial applications rose to roughly 680.5 million ounces in 2024, up from around 644 million a year earlier. Solar panel production alone consumed an estimated 244 million ounces - more than double 2020 levels. With the International Energy Agency projecting 4,000 gigawatts of new solar capacity by 2030, demand could rise by another 150 million ounces annually.

Electric vehicles add further strain. Current EVs use 25–50 grams of silver each, but potential solid-state battery designs could require up to a kilogram of silver per vehicle. Combined with the growth of AI, semiconductor, and data-centre infrastructure, this creates sustained demand at a time when global mine supply has been declining for nearly a decade.

Consumers experience this in two ways. Rising input costs can translate into more expensive solar installations, electric vehicles and electronics. At the same time, households in key markets, such as India, continue to view silver as a trusted store of value. Prices there reached 170,415 rupees per kilogram in October, an 85% rise since the start of the year - both a sign of confidence and a burden for buyers.

Expert outlook

Most major banks now cluster their 2026 gold forecasts between $4,000 and $4,600. Deutsche Bank recently raised its 2026 average projection to around $4,450 and outlined a trading range between $3,950 and $4,950. Goldman Sachs sees “almost 20% further upside” from current levels, implying a path towards roughly $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if central-bank buying continues and the dollar weakens. Bank of America, HSBC, and Société Générale all consider $5,000 a realistic upside target.

More cautious institutions expect the rally to settle rather than extend. The World Bank warns that, after a roughly 40% investment-driven gain in 2025, precious metals prices may only rise modestly in 2026, reflecting consolidation rather than acceleration. Under this scenario, gold would trade sideways in a wide range, and silver would stabilise at high but less volatile levels as supply gradually responds.

Silver’s outlook remains more volatile because of its dual role as a precious and industrial metal. Analysts expect the market to stay in deficit for a fifth straight year, but silver’s smaller size and extreme sensitivity to leveraged flows could produce sharp pullbacks if rate cuts disappoint or the dollar strengthens. As Paul Syms of Invesco observed, this year’s supply squeeze “caught a few investors by surprise”, and silver rarely repeats a trend without testing both sides first.

Across both metals, the next catalysts are clear: the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, updated global growth forecasts, and fresh central-bank reserve data. These will determine whether financial conditions continue easing into 2026 or whether markets begin to unwind some of the year’s most powerful trades.

Key takeaway

Gold and silver are breaking records in 2025 because global demand is intensifying just as supply struggles to keep pace. Central banks seek insulation from monetary and geopolitical risks, investors desire reliability amid policy uncertainty, and industries require metals that drive the energy transition. These pressures have collided to create one of the strongest precious metals rallies in decades. The next chapter hinges on interest-rate decisions, industrial demand trends and the durability of central-bank buying as the world moves into 2026.

Silver technical insight

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) has surged into a price discovery zone, trading above $57 after a sharp breakout from consolidation. The move signals strong bullish conviction, with momentum carrying price well beyond the prior range. Immediate support levels now sit at $50.00 and $46.93, levels where a pullback could trigger sell liquidations and deeper corrective pressure if breached.

Price remains extended along the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting aggressive buying interest and a market trending strongly in favour of the bulls. Any dip toward the mid-band would likely serve as a first test of trend strength.

The RSI is holding near 80, rising but almost flat within deep overbought territory. This suggests buyers remain firmly in control, yet the risk of a short-term cooldown or sideways consolidation is increasing. While the broader trend is decisively upward, overextended conditions mean traders should watch for signs of exhaustion as silver navigates uncharted highs.

According to reports, the dollar’s rate-cut reckoning is now the defining force in EUR/USD, with traders pushing expectations for a December Federal Reserve cut to more than 85%, up sharply from 39% just a week earlier. What began as a quiet Thanksgiving week has turned into the dollar’s steepest weekly decline in four months, reshaping the balance of power across major currency pairs.

EUR/USD is rising not because the euro has rediscovered its strength, but because the dollar is losing the policy advantage it has enjoyed for most of the year. As markets confront the prospect of a softer Fed and political pressure on the institution intensifies, the pair is becoming a barometer for how much credibility the central bank is willing to risk in the months ahead.

What’s driving EUR/USD right now?

The Fed sits squarely at the centre of the story. Rate expectations have shifted at a pace not seen since early summer, with futures markets now assuming a December cut as the most likely outcome. Reuters reported a series of softer labour market indicators, dovish public remarks from key policymakers, and increased speculation around Kevin Hassett’s potential nomination as the next Fed Chair have accelerated the move. Thin U.S. liquidity over the Thanksgiving holiday added fuel, allowing even modest data points to push the dollar lower.

This recalibration has allowed EUR/USD to climb despite Europe’s mixed economic backdrop. The dollar index, still hovering near 99.72, is heading for its worst weekly performance since late July. 

The euro briefly touched a 1½-week high of $1.1613 before easing, supported more by dollar fatigue than by renewed optimism in the eurozone. Even so, the narrowing of U.S.–European rate differentials has created space for euro bulls to test higher levels, something that looked unlikely just two weeks ago.

Why the dollar is facing its own reckoning

Political pressure is becoming an increasingly prominent part of the narrative. President Donald Trump has renewed calls for deeper rate cuts, arguing that the Fed must “move quickly” to support economic momentum. 

The possibility that Kevin Hassett - a prominent advocate of looser policy - could become the next Fed Chair has forced traders to reassess the institution’s independence and long-term trajectory. Markets are now questioning whether December’s cut is simply another precaution or the start of a strategically driven easing cycle.

At the macro level, the dollar’s credibility premium is also being tested. Barclays’ global head of FX strategy, Themos Fiotakis, argued that Europe had benefited in recent months from supportive rate differentials and improving sentiment, but warned that these assumptions are now under reassessment. The euro’s valuation remains high by several metrics, while the U.S. economy continues to show pockets of resilience, particularly in services. The dollar’s decline, therefore, reflects less a loss of faith and more a repricing of what the next policymaking regime might look like.

What this means for EUR/USD traders

Positioning in EUR/USD has turned decisively constructive, according to analysts. With holiday-thinned liquidity amplifying moves, traders have been quick to unwind long-USD positions accumulated during the autumn rally. The shift has also been visible in cross-asset markets: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields briefly dipped below 4% before rebounding, while German bunds held steady, creating a more supportive environment for the euro.

For corporates, the recalibration matters. European exporters face a marginally stronger currency, which could tighten their margins if the trend persists, while importers benefit from reduced dollar-denominated costs. For investors, the EUR/USD is becoming a call on relative credibility: whether the Fed’s pivot is justified by economic factors or shaped by politics - and whether the European Central Bank can maintain stability as global conditions change.

The geopolitical backdrop adds another layer, analysts added. Markets are tracking every incremental update on Ukraine peace negotiations, with Vladimir Putin signalling that draft proposals could form the basis of future talks. While analysts caution against expecting a rapid “peace premium”, even the possibility of de-escalation has helped cap dollar demand against the euro.

Expert outlook

In the near term, market watchers stated the EUR/USD will remain closely tied to U.S. policy signals. A confirmed December rate cut, reinforced by dovish messaging, could send the pair back toward 1.17. But any upside surprise in U.S. labour or inflation data would temper enthusiasm and reintroduce volatility, particularly for leveraged positions - something traders often evaluate beforehand using the Deriv trading calculator to manage risk.

Medium-term dynamics remain more uncertain. The eurozone continues to wrestle with uneven growth and limited fiscal momentum, which could limit the sustainability of any rally built solely on dollar weakness. At the same time, bond markets remain a crucial indicator: if the U.S. 10-year yield breaks back above 4.1%, the dollar could regain some cyclically driven strength, according to experts. 

The next trigger may come from a combination of Fed rhetoric, incoming U.S. data, and developments in Eastern Europe, all of which have the potential to redirect EUR/USD in the weeks ahead.

EUR/USD technical insights

At the start of writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1585, moving sideways within a well-defined range. The pair continues to face overhead pressure from the 1.1650 resistance level, where traders may look for profit-taking or renewed buying if the price can break convincingly above it. On the downside, the first key support level sits at 1.1565, followed by a stronger base at 1.1448. A break below either level is likely to trigger sell liquidations and deeper downside momentum.

The price remains contained within the Bollinger Bands, indicating a market lacking strong directional conviction. This consolidative structure suggests EUR/USD may continue chopping within the range unless a macro catalyst - such as ECB or Fed commentary - forces a breakout.

The RSI is nearly flat, sitting around 44, close to the midline and signalling neutral momentum. Neither bulls nor bears currently dominate, reinforcing the idea that the pair is in a holding pattern while awaiting its next decisive move.

Key takeaway

EUR/USD is climbing because the dollar is undergoing a policy reckoning shaped by rapid shifts in rate expectations and rising political influence. The euro may not have a strong domestic story, but the repricing of U.S. monetary credibility has given it new momentum. The next leg depends on the Fed's decision in December, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical developments. Traders on Deriv MT5 will closely watch those catalysts as they adjust their strategies.

Silver quietly outshines gold - but can the run continue? Recent data showed the metal has climbed more than 7% this week, pushing XAG/USD to within a whisker of its record high as thin Thanksgiving liquidity magnifies every move. Gold, usually the headline act, has seen its volatility fade, yet silver is stealing the show with a surge that looks anything but seasonal.

Market watchers expressed the forces behind this breakout are real: weak US retail sales, collapsing consumer expectations, and an 84% market-implied probability of a December Fed cut have turbocharged demand for haven assets. Traders are now weighing whether this surge reflects a temporary holiday dislocation or the early stages of a structural re-rating. That question - whether silver’s outperformance can endure - sets the tone for the rest of the market analysis.

What’s driving silver’s surge?

Silver’s latest rally sits at the intersection of macro stress and thinning liquidity. US retail sales have increased nominally since 2021, signalling a stalled consumer engine that leaves little room for growth. The Conference Board’s expectations index has plunged to 63.2, a level that has historically preceded recessions, reinforcing the rush into defensive assets.

With investors reassessing the path of US demand, metals sensitive to economic shifts have reacted quickest - silver most of all.

The Federal Reserve’s pivot has accelerated this shift. Markets have rapidly repriced the odds of a rate cut, jumping from 50% to 84% in a matter of days.

Comments from New York Fed President John Williams and other officials have signalled readiness to ease if momentum continues to weaken. As Treasury yields retreat towards one-month lows and the dollar softens, non-yielding assets enjoy an outsized advantage. Silver’s leverage to these conditions helps explain why its move has been so immediate - and so dramatic.

Why it matters

According to analysts, silver’s rise matters not simply because of the speed of the rally but because of what it reflects. Despite gold’s reputation as the ultimate haven, silver has outperformed it by a wide margin, climbing 163% since October 2023 and hitting a record high of $54.38 earlier this month. That outperformance is increasingly difficult for institutions to ignore because silver sits at the crossroads of monetary hedging and industrial utility.

They also warn that the price action is exposing deeper anxieties. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, notes that the market is reacting to “a chorus of dovish remarks” as soft macro indicators pile up. His assessment points to a broader problem: silver is rallying not because growth is strong, but because confidence in the trajectory of the US economy is fading. Metals are absorbing that uncertainty in real time.

Impact on markets and industry

For traders, silver’s surge complicates positioning as markets thin out for the holiday period. Lower participation amplifies intraday moves, making it harder to hedge directional risks. On platforms like Deriv MT5, where execution speed and precise trade sizing are crucial during volatile conditions, this environment requires traders to stay vigilant. Many are increasingly relying on tools such as the Deriv trading calculator to measure potential profit, swap charges, and position exposure before taking on silver’s sharp intraday swings.

But the deeper story sits within the industrial sector. Silver demand from solar panel manufacturing jumped to 243.7 million ounces in 2024, up from 191.8 million in 2023 and more than double the level seen in 2020.

With global solar capacity on track to reach nearly 1,000 GW annually by 2030, demand is expected to rise by another 150 million ounces per year. Supply, however, remains constrained: the majority of global silver output is a byproduct of copper, zinc, lead or gold production, making it slow to adjust to price signals. Mining Technology estimates that global production could fall to 901 million ounces by 2030 - a structural deficit that strengthens the long-term case for higher prices.

Expert outlook

Pro traders expressed the sustainability of silver’s run hangs on three core factors: the Fed’s next move, the trajectory of US consumption, and the pace of industrial expansion. If policymakers confirm the December pivot, the combination of lower yields and a softer dollar could deliver the catalyst needed to take prices into new record territory. And with recession signals flashing more brightly, demand for haven assets is unlikely to evaporate quickly.

Yet nothing is assured. A sudden rebound in consumer activity or an inflation surprise could slow expectations of policy easing. Industrial users may eventually push back against higher prices, although solar demand appears robust enough to absorb short-term volatility. For now, traders are closely monitoring incoming macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve communications. A decisive break above the previous peak could signal that the market sees a fundamentally new pricing regime for silver.

Key takeaway

Silver’s surge is rooted in real economic signals, from weakening US data to rising expectations of near-term rate cuts. The metal has outperformed gold and is now flirting with historic highs, supported by both haven flows and a powerful industrial story. Whether the run continues depends on the Fed’s messaging and the resilience of US households, but the broader trend points towards tightening supply and enduring demand. The next few weeks will reveal whether silver is merely rallying - or repricing for a new cycle altogether.

Silver technical insights

At the start of writing, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $53.79, pushing aggressively higher as it approaches the major $54.22 resistance level. This zone is likely to attract profit-taking, though a clean breakout could spark fresh momentum buying given the strength of the current rally.

On the downside, key supports sit at $50.00 and $47.00. A move back below either would indicate fading bullish pressure and could trigger sell liquidations or a deeper retracement, especially if price slips through the midpoint of the Bollinger Band channel.

Momentum remains strong, with the RSI rising sharply to around 80, firmly in overbought territory. This signals that buyers are in control but also warns of potential short-term exhaustion. While the uptrend remains intact, silver may be vulnerable to pullbacks or sideways consolidation if overbought conditions persist.

Bitcoin’s redemption arc has arrived in full view as the world’s largest cryptocurrency claws back above $90,000, raising the question of whether this breakout can truly hold. The move follows a sharp rebound from the ~$80,400 trough seen only days earlier, driven largely by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in December and a broader shift back toward risk assets, according to reports. 

Yet Bitcoin’s rally sits on fragile ground, with spot ETFs still experiencing weak inflows and month-on-month performance showing BTC down nearly 19%, underscoring the uneven footing behind the bounce.

Analysts expressed that this tension between renewed optimism and deteriorating liquidity now defines the market’s mood. If Bitcoin is to transform this recovery into something durable, it must overcome stiff resistance in the $92,000–$95,000 zone and attract a decisive return of retail volume and ETF participation. Whether those conditions emerge - or whether the breakout fades into another corrective downswing - will determine the next chapter in Bitcoin’s so-called redemption arc.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s latest move

Bitcoin’s latest ascent has been powered in part by shifting macro expectations. Traders are now assigning higher odds to a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which is helping fuel a rebound in risk appetite across equities and cryptocurrency markets. 

This shift in sentiment helped BTC reclaim the $90,000 handle after falling to the $80,000 region last week. Yet the backdrop is more complicated: inflation remains elevated, prompting analysts at QCP Capital to caution that “supply is likely to cap BTC in the mid-$90Ks,” suggesting the rally may be nearing exhaustion. 

The ETF landscape adds another layer. After weeks of record outflows, U.S. bitcoin ETFs have struggled to attract consistent inflows. Analysts note that liquidity remains thin, and investor demand remains hesitant. 

MicroStrategy - one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders - has only just neared break-even levels and is now on MSCI’s delisting watchlist, amplifying uncertainty over institutional exposure. These stresses remain beneath the surface, even as prices recover, revealing a rally built more on macro positioning than strong capital inflows.

Why it matters

The divergence between price action and structural metrics has become a focal point for investors. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, notes that Bitcoin’s typical correlation with the Nasdaq has weakened in recent weeks, as BTC has declined more rapidly than major tech benchmarks.

This decoupling raises questions about crypto-specific liquidity issues at a time when equities are stabilising. Meanwhile, analysts at 10X Research warn the market may be placing too much faith in a December rate cut. Their work suggests that Bitcoin reacts more to the Fed’s communication and tone than to actual policy moves. 

If Powell signals caution or downplays the pace of future easing, markets could reverse quickly. The firm also challenges assumptions around Treasury General Account (TGA) spending as a catalyst for crypto liquidity, noting that previous TGA releases took up to two months to filter into Bitcoin’s price - if at all.

Impact on industry, markets, and consumers

Recent data revealed, Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 may have restored some psychological confidence, but the structural picture remains uneven. The asset is still down 5% year-to-date, and ETF products only recently stabilised after heavy outflows that contributed to BTC’s fall to around $80K. The rebound has offered relief, but the market is far from signalling a clean upward trend.

Institutional flows offer glimmers of a shift. VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani said spot ETFs saw inflows on Tuesday for the first time in weeks - “an early sign that institutional liquidity is returning.” Traders monitoring price behavior through Deriv MT5 have noted the importance of $90,000 as a structural pivot, with shorter timeframes showing volatility between bullish attempts and profit-taking waves. Meanwhile, the Deriv trading calculator has become increasingly useful for traders looking to estimate position costs and risk as BTC flirts with major resistance.

According to market watchers, Bitcoin’s performance continues to influence the broader digital asset complex. A decisive hold above $ 90,000 could boost liquidity across altcoin and stablecoin markets. A breakdown of risks could reignite forced selling and erode confidence across the sector.

Expert outlook

QCP Capital sees a clear resistance band forming between $92,000 and $95,000, warning that shrinking liquidity could limit any attempt to push higher. They identify the $80,000 –$82,000 range as a crucial support area that buyers defended during the latest sell-off. Analysts at 10X Research add that if historical TGA-liquidity lags hold, Bitcoin may consolidate into late January 2026, reducing the odds of a swift breakout.

Not all strategists believe a bottom has been reached. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel argues that bear markets often feature “swift relief rallies followed by aggressive selling into strength.” He wants to see net accumulation from long-term holders and more assertive short-positioning in futures markets before turning constructive. Without these signals, Engel identifies a risk that BTC may encounter heavy resistance if it approaches $92,000-$95,000, potentially triggering a renewed downturn.

Key takeaway

Analysts note, Bitcoin’s climb back above $90,000 marks a symbolic turning point in its ongoing redemption arc, but the foundations of this rally remain thin. Resistance near $92,000 –$95,000, weak ETF inflows, and a historically fragile year-end liquidity backdrop all challenge the sustainability of the breakout. 

The next phase will depend on how markets digest the Fed's December messaging, whether retail traders return, and whether institutional inflows strengthen. These forces will determine whether Bitcoin’s revival continues - or stalls at familiar resistance.

Bitcoin technical insights

At the start of writing, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is attempting a recovery from recent lows, trading just above $91,200 after rebounding from the key $84,900 support zone. Holding this level is crucial - a break below it could trigger sell liquidations and reopen the downside trend. On the upside, BTC now faces two important resistance levels: $110,600 and $115,165, where traders may look for profit-taking or renewed buying interest if price can build enough momentum to retest them.

Price action remains contained within the Bollinger Bands, with BTC beginning to push toward the middle band after a prolonged period of weakness. This suggests early signs of stabilisation, though the broader trend still leans cautious until a clean breakout above the resistance zones.

The RSI has risen sharply to around 61, climbing back toward the midline after spending time in oversold conditions. This shift highlights improving bullish momentum, but with plenty of room before overbought levels are reached, suggesting the recovery could have more space to run if buyers continue to step in.

December 2025 is poised to deliver a high-stakes policy showdown between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve, with USD/JPY hovering in a precarious 154–158 band, suggesting intervention is likely. 

As of 27 November 2025, the pair trades around 155.91, down slightly from recent highs near 157.89 but still vulnerable to a break in either direction. A potential BoJ rate hike clashing against near-certain Fed easing could finally tip the scales - yen bulls are banking on a downside rupture, while bears eye a dollar rebound if either central bank disappoints.

The yen’s tightrope: USD/JPY’s November range

USD/JPY has been confined between the 154.00 support price and 158.00 danger zone price through much of November, a tug-of-war between persistent US yield strength propping up the dollar and mounting speculation on policy divergence. 

The upper end-157-158-marks familiar "intervention territory," where Tokyo has deployed verbal and actual yen support in past episodes of rapid depreciation. This range persists amid a backdrop of weak yen-fueled inflation risks in Japan and cooling US data, which is tilting toward Fed cuts.

BoJ: A December hike edges into focus

BoJ rhetoric has sharpened on yen weakness as an inflation accelerant, with import costs now a key concern. A Reuters poll from 11-18 November revealed a slim majority - 53% (43 of 81 economists) - anticipating a 25 basis point hike to 0.75% at the 18-19 December meeting, up from prior surveys. All polled forecasters see at least that level by March 2026.

Easing political friction has helped: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent nod to gradual normalisation, following talks with Governor Kazuo Ueda, has reduced near-term hurdles. Ex-BoJ insiders echo this, citing current levels as a catalyst for action sooner than later.

Fed: Overwhelming odds on a December cut

Market pricing leans heavily toward Fed easing, with the CME FedWatch Tool data as of 26 November showing an 84.9% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the 10 December FOMC meeting. 

This reflects softer US indicators, including recent jobs data that hasn't derailed cut expectations despite some internal Fed debate. Such a move would trim the US–Japan yield gap modestly, offering tailwinds to the yen independent of BoJ moves.

Why it matters

The December decisions will determine whether the yen’s months-long stasis finally resolves into a trend - a critical shift for traders, Japanese policymakers, and multinational firms managing currency exposure. A break from the 154–158 range would influence capital flows, hedging strategies, and carry-trade dynamics at a time when global FX volatility is already rising.

For Japan, the stakes are especially high. A stronger yen would ease imported inflation and energy-cost pressures, while a renewed slide would intensify political scrutiny and prompt the Ministry of Finance to consider direct intervention. For the US, the Fed’s decision will signal how confidently it believes inflation is returning to its target, shaping global risk appetite as the year-end approaches.

Breakout scenarios: Two paths for USD/JPY

These outcomes hinge on post-meeting commentary - hawkish BoJ signals or dovish Fed dots could exaggerate moves.

What to monitor closely

• Event timeline: Fed decision on 10 December; BoJ on 18–19 December. 
• Volatility gauges: One- and two-week option-implied vol expected to spike, signaling hedge flows.  
• The intervention threshold of 157–160 remains a political flashpoint for Ministry of Finance action.

USDJPY technical insights

At the start of writing, USD/JPY is trading just below 156, easing slightly after failing to hold levels near the 157.43 resistance zone - an area where traders typically look for profit-taking or fresh upside breakouts. The pair now sits above two key supports at 151.76 and 150.20; slipping below either level could trigger sell liquidations and a deeper corrective move toward the lower Bollinger Band.

Despite the recent pullback, price action remains broadly constructive, with the pair still riding the middle Band and holding below the short-term moving averages.

The RSI, meanwhile, has dipped gently below 70, signalling that bullish momentum is cooling after a stretch of overbought readings. This soft decline hints at consolidation rather than a full reversal, suggesting the pair may trade sideways while the market waits for new catalysts, such as U.S. data or Bank of Japan commentary, to determine its next leg.

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The numbers are staggering. In 2025, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are collectively guiding to $360–400 billion in capital expenditures – a ~60% year-over-year increase, with the overwhelming majority directed toward AI-related infrastructure (data centres, custom silicon, GPU/Trainium clusters).

On 24 November 2025, BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage on Amazon with an Outperform rating and a $320 price target - currently the highest among major brokers and implying ~39% upside from the 26 November close of ~$230.

2025 capex guidance - The big four

Sources: Company filings, earnings calls, BNP Paribas Exane, BBC, Bloomberg, Reuters

Why BNP Paribas exane sees Amazon differently

Analysts at BNP Paribas Exane argue that concerns about Amazon under-investing or being late in AI are “overblown” in light of the company’s disclosed spending and pipeline. Amazon’s finance team has discussed a 2025 capex outlook of roughly $125B, with expectations for a higher figure in 2026, and has indicated that the vast majority is focused on AI-focused infrastructure such as data centres, networking and in-house accelerators for AWS.​

The note highlights several points that differentiate Amazon in this capex cycle:

• Vertical integration: By designing its own AI chips such as Trainium and Inferentia, management has indicated potential cost and efficiency benefits relative to relying solely on third-party GPUs, which could help with both pricing and capacity flexibility over time.​

• Multiple monetisation channels: The AI infrastructure is positioned to support not only AWS enterprise and government workloads but also improvements in advertising relevance, logistics optimisation, and consumer-facing services, giving Amazon several ways to translate infrastructure into revenue.​

• Long-term margin narrative: The firm’s thesis references scenarios where AWS growth re-accelerates into the mid-20% range and advertising grows at 20–25%+ annually, contributing to potential group-level operating margin expansion over a multi-year horizon, though actual outcomes will depend on execution and demand.​

Key investor debates & risks

Upcoming catalysts/data points

• AWS re:Invent - early December 2025

Market participants will likely watch for announcements on new AI services, model offerings, and capacity expansions, as well as customer case studies that illustrate production-scale workloads.

• Amazon Q4 2025 results - expected late January / early February 2026

Key metrics to watch include AWS revenue growth rates, segment operating income, and management commentary on AI-driven demand and 2026 capex plans.

• Peer earnings and updated guidance - early 2026

Earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta in early 2026 are expected to provide fresh details on capex trajectories, AI product adoption, and how each company is balancing investment with free cash flow.

These events may offer more clarity on how quickly AI investments are translating into revenue and whether capex levels remain elevated, moderate, or increase further in 2026.

Amazon technical insights

At the start of writing, Amazon (AMZN) is trading near $229, recovering modestly from recent lows while holding above key supports at $218.45 and $213. A drop below these zones could trigger sell liquidations, while a push higher puts the $250.15 resistance level back in focus - an area where traders may take profits or look for renewed buying.

The RSI remains flat around 50, signalling neutral momentum and suggesting the market is still searching for direction after the recent pullback.

XRP’s price outlook has become unusually tense as the surge in ETF momentum is now running headfirst into a wave of heavy sell-offs. The token should be rising on the back of multiple U.S. ETF approvals on 21 November - some of which pulled in over $50 million in first-day trading volume, according to market analyst Eric Balchunas- yet XRP instead slipped to 2.18, down from highs of 2.29, amid broader crypto selloffs. This contradiction between structural progress and market pressure is defining the current landscape.

The clash raises a sharp question for investors: does the arrival of regulated ETF flows represent the foundation of a long-term revaluation, or will persistent selling overwhelm sentiment and drag the market toward a deeper reset? XRP now sits at a technical and psychological turning point, and the resolution of this tension will shape its next major move.

What’s driving XRP’s latest shift?

According to reports, XRP’s recent price dynamics are being shaped by two competing narratives. On one side, analysts who have long championed ambitious targets - such as 24HrsCrypto and Black Swan Capitalist founder Versan Aljarrah - continue to argue that XRP’s value is ultimately tied to global settlement demand rather than retail hype. 

Their view is that Bitcoin rises on speculation, while XRP’s long-term upside depends on “utility, settlement demand, and global liquidity needs.” These analysts maintain that patient accumulation and institutional adoption remain central to XRP’s value creation.

That theme collided with a major regulatory development: the formal approval of multiple U.S. XRP ETFs. The NYSE certification of Franklin Templeton’s ETF and the launch of products by Bitwise, 21Shares, and others created a clean, compliant gateway for traditional investors. 

Early inflows reflect genuine interest - Bitwise recorded $22 million in opening-day volume, while Canary Capital’s XRPC product posted $58 million, one of the strongest starts of the year. These products broaden XRP’s potential demand base even though the spot market remains volatile.

Why it matters

Market analysts stated that ETF approvals represent a structural boost for XRP’s long-term credibility. Bitwise described its own ETF debut as a “historic moment,” highlighting that regulated products carry weight with financial advisers and pension managers still cautious about digital assets. These investors often decide months after regulatory approval, suggesting that meaningful inflows may materialise in 2026 as portfolio frameworks adjust. 

But near-term sentiment tells a different story. XRP’s drop below $2 despite the ETF milestone shows how fragile the immediate market environment remains. Glassnode data indicates that 41.5% of the circulating supply is currently at a loss, creating pressure as traders capitulate. 

Whale activity intensified the decline, with over 200 million XRP sold within two days of the ETF news. This divergence between structural gains and short-term weakness is now central to XRP’s outlook.

Impact on markets and investors

From recent reports, Ripple’s institutional strategy adds another dimension to XRP’s trajectory. The company’s $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, rebranded as Ripple Prime, marks the first time a crypto-native company has owned a global, multi-asset prime broker. 

The platform clears $3 trillion annually, and Ripple executives report significant growth since the acquisition. XRP and RLUSD are set to be deployed as collateral for institutional clients, signalling a push to anchor the token within professional trading and settlement infrastructure. 

Watchers consider this shift crucial because prime brokerage acts as the nerve centre of institutional capital flow. Embedding XRP into collateral and settlement channels strengthens liquidity pathways that do not rely on retail enthusiasm. Hidden Road’s rapid expansion suggests demand for compliant digital-asset tooling continues to rise. For investors, this creates the unusual scenario where fundamental plumbing improves even as the short-term chart weakens, a pattern common in transitional market phases.

Expert outlook

Technical analysts describe XRP as approaching a pivotal threshold. Regaining $2.195 would signal stabilisation and could open a path towards $2.6, while losing $2 risks a drop towards $1.5, where long-term investors might attempt to reaccumulate. The once-popular $3.6 target now looks distant unless broader crypto sentiment reverses.

The long-term debate remains polarised. Supporters of the $100 thesis argue that XRP’s future rests on liquidity rails and institutional settlement rather than speculation cycles. Critics maintain that real inflows may not emerge until advisers and regulated funds allocate in earnest - likely in 2026. Macro headwinds and Bitcoin’s direction remain critical: a market-wide rebound could amplify ETF demand, while continued weakness may keep XRP pinned near support.

Key takeaway

Many say, XRP’s outlook is shaped by a clash between ETF-driven optimism and pressure from heavy sell-offs. Analysts have expressed the underlying ecosystem is strengthening through institutional integration; however, the price remains vulnerable as whales distribute and macroeconomic conditions weigh on risk assets. The next major move hinges on whether XRP can reclaim the $2 region, attract sustained ETF inflows, and ride any broader crypto rebound. The balance of these forces will define the trajectory into 2026.

XRP technical insights

At the start of writing, XRP/USD is hovering around $2.1800, trading between key resistance at $2.6480 and strong support at $1.9569. A break below support could trigger sell liquidations, while moves above $2.6480 or $3.0400 may attract profit-taking or fresh buying interest.

The RSI is rising gently from the midline at around 54, signalling a mild recovery in momentum but not yet indicating overbought conditions.