Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

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Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  

Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

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黃金與美國國債殖利率長期以來的反向關係在2025年已經徹底瓦解。這項貴金屬價格已飆升至每盎司4,000美元以上，即使國債殖利率已趨於穩定且美元走弱。這種背離顯示全球風險情緒出現更深層的轉變：投資人不再將美國國債視為可靠的避險工具。相反地，在債務疑慮、通膨風險與財政不確定性動盪的市場中，黃金已成為首選的避險資產。

重點摘要

• 2025年約有9.2兆美元的美國可流通債務到期，迫使財政部在需求疲弱下再融資創紀錄的債券規模。
  
• 聯邦赤字預計將達到1.9兆美元，加劇對債務不可持續與財政自滿的擔憂。
  
• 持續的通膨與關稅相關衝擊推高長天期債券的期限溢酬，使國債表現更像風險資產。
  
• 即使殖利率維持高檔，美元仍下跌，反映市場對政府財政狀況信心流失。
  
• 黃金今年以來已上漲52%，突破4,000美元，因央行與投資人從債券轉向實體資產。
  

國債殖利率市場承壓

美國國債市場經歷了數十年來最艱難的一年。到期債務浪潮——約9.2兆美元，其中大部分集中在上半年——迫使政府以極快速度發行新債。投資人需求無法跟上，導致全面拋售與殖利率上升，特別是長天期債券。

同時，財政赤字膨脹至1.9兆美元，加劇市場對政府支出增加將惡化長期債務可持續性的擔憂。投資人要求更高殖利率來持有美國債務，實質上將國債重新定價為風險資產，而非防禦性資產。

技術性與政策衝擊——包括美國貿易政策轉變與關稅調整——進一步扭曲價格並推高期限溢酬。供給過剩、通膨焦慮與財政疑慮的組合，使國債波動性達到自2020年以來最高。

黃金作為避險資產填補真空

通常，國債拋售會推升美元並壓抑黃金。但2025年顛覆了這一劇本。美元與國債齊跌，暴露出對美國財政信譽的信心危機。這為黃金取代國債成為防禦性資產鋪平了道路。

投資人、基金經理與央行加速購買實體黃金與ETF，認為在政府債務顯得脆弱的環境下，黃金是更可靠的價值儲存工具。 

結果是黃金歷史性地突破每盎司4,000美元，創下近五十年來最佳表現。

黃金 vs 美國國債殖利率——2025年表現比較

資料來源：World Gold Council（2025年中展望）、Reuters（2025年10月8日）、YCharts 美國10年期國債利率系列。

數據凸顯黃金與殖利率現已同步走勢。黃金42%的漲幅與約4.1%穩定殖利率並行，證明傳統的反向關聯——殖利率下跌時黃金上漲——已經瓦解。取而代之的是，兩種資產現正共同回應財政不確定性與投資人對政策穩定性的信任危機。

黃金–國債關聯瓦解的後果

黃金–國債避險機制的瓦解使市場更加波動且難以預測。殖利率維持高檔，股票市場在過去能互相抵消的跨資產關聯下難以穩定。美元走弱加劇通膨疑慮，形成回饋循環，進一步推升黃金需求。

然而部分分析師認為，2025年稍晚有機會出現逆轉。如果經濟放緩且聯邦準備理事會 降息，殖利率可能下跌，部分恢復過去的反向關係。但目前，黃金與國債同步走勢——這顯示經典避險結構性基礎已經出現裂痕。

2025–2026年黃金價格展望

分析師對未來走勢看法分歧。高盛預測若財政風險持續，黃金有望維持在歷史高點，而部分策略師則認為若經濟衰退導致殖利率下滑，債券壓力將於年底緩解。

然而，根本問題——高額債務發行、持續通膨與對美國財政管理信心減弱——指向長期再平衡。國債不再被視為純粹的避險資產，而是風險環境的一部分。黃金則成為不確定時代的穩定錨。

黃金價格技術面解析

撰文時，日線圖上明顯出現強勁買盤。然而，價格接近上升通道上緣，可能暗示有機會回調至3,850美元的通道下緣。這一回調預期獲得RSI深度超買區的支持。另一方面，MACD顯示多頭動能強勁。  若價格果斷突破現有水準，買方有望進一步上看4,100美元。 

黃金投資啟示

對交易者與資產管理人而言，2025年的市場格局預示著全新避險現實。
短期內，黃金有望在4,000美元以上盤整，受央行持續買盤與避險資金流支撐。若經濟衰退引發降息，債券價格或可回升——但黃金仍將因其對政策與信用風險的防禦特性而具備戰略吸引力。

中期佈局應優先考慮在Deriv MT5上多元配置黃金，交易者可利用倍數工具於波動市況下管理槓桿。同時，善用 Deriv 的交易計算機有助於在黃金波動加劇時維持嚴謹的風險管理。

Deriv 平台黃金交易策略

Deriv 交易者可透過多種平台進入黃金市場，滿足不同交易風格與目標。

我們的平台提供現貨黃金（XAU/USD）交易，點差低至0.3點，流動性深厚，槓桿最高可達1:1000，具體取決於帳戶類型與司法管轄區。平台支援多種下單類型、進階圖表工具與技術分析指標。

希望以可控風險參與黃金價格波動的交易者，可選擇 Deriv Multipliers，該產品允許以固定最大損失參與槓桿交易，讓客戶無需傳統保證金要求即可參與短線黃金波動。

為協助交易規劃與持倉監控，Deriv 的交易計算機可協助用戶計算黃金及其他商品的合約規模、保證金需求與點值。所有平台還提供停損與止盈功能，便於精確下單與資金分配。

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是的-根據分析師表示，日本的擴張財政立場和超低利率可能會恢復全球貨幣貿易。日元跌至七個月低點，美元/日元下跌 爆發 在 151 以上，交易者再次借用日元追求更高收益 資產。由於市場將 155 作為下一個里程碑，東京現在面對保護其貨幣的壓力日益增加。除非日本央行（日本央行）堅持採取更嚴格的政策或直接干預，否則日元資助的交易可能會繼續提高全球風險願望，直到 2025 年。

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重要提示

• 由於日元恢復疲軟和全球風險情緒，美元/日元創下了七個月高位，高於 151.00。
  
  
• 高井佐奈支持刺激政策提高了對大規模財政支出的預期，延遲了日本央行收緊。
  
  
• 由於投資者以便宜的方式借用日元以在國外投資較高收益的資產，進而持續交易活動再次復興。
  
  
• 東京警告過度波動，但市場繼續測試日本的介入門檻。
  
  
• 美元/日元可能會測試 155，否則日本央行大幅轉變或政府協調干預。
  
  

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2025 年日本財政刺激措施和日元的下滑

日本的政治轉變正在推動日元新下降壓力。在高一沙奈獲選為自由民主黨（LDP）的新領導者之後，投資者期望她的政府將提高公共支出以支持增長。

雖然這個策略可能刺激經濟，但它引發了財政可持續性的擔憂，並使日本央行的通脹控制工作變得複雜。日本 8 月份通脹為 2.7%，仍高於 2% 的目標，表明政策應保持緊密。

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日本通脹率

然而，預期正在相反的方向發展：市場現在只有 26% 的機率在 10 月 30 日將日本央行加息，較高市勝前的 60% 下降。

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日本銀行利率

這種前景的轉變使以日元計價的投資不太吸引力，並促進資金流入高收益市場，加速貨幣的下跌。

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高市振興市場，日元走勢交易焦點

攜帶交易再次成為市場關注的中心。隨著日本利率固定在零附近，交易者正在借用日元來購買收益率較高的經濟體（例如美國或澳大利亞）的資產。

當全球化時，這個策略蓬勃發展 風險 食慾很高，2025 年的股市反彈為了完美的背景。納斯達克指數、標普 500 指數和日本日經 225 指數最近創下新高，反映了廣泛的投資者信心。同樣的樂觀情緒已削弱了日元的安全避險需求，從而加強了它作為全球首選資金貨幣的作用。

這種動態反映了 2000 年代中期的貿易蓬勃發展，當時日元疲軟激發了全球投機投資-直到日本央行突然的政策轉變逆轉了趨勢。然而，目前，日本的貨幣態勢和財政擴張正在使該策略保持活力。

交易洞察：當波動率低且利率點差寬廣時，持倉交易會獲利，但當情緒轉變時，它們可以很大地放鬆。在我們的中心了解更多有關波動的市場進行交易 市場波動指南。

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東京的困境：干預或容忍滑行

日本財政部陷入了一種熟悉的困境。由於美元/日元現在高於 151，交易者正在留意政府干預的跡象，這在歷史上是當貨幣對接近 150—152 時觸發的。

財政部長加藤勝信重申了日本準備應對「過度波動」，但市場仍然懷疑。除非獲得貨幣政策調整支持，否則干預費昂貴且短暫。由於高市的政府傾向於財政擴張，僅僅口頭警告不太可能阻止日元的賣出。

這使東京有兩種選擇：直接干預，冒著有限的成功風險，或等待並希望市場穩定-這是一個風險的呼籲，因為投機定位重大傾向於美元/日元的長期。

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美國因素：儘管有逆風，美元仍有彈性

即使在國內挑戰中，美元仍然堅定。儘管政府持續關閉和預期 美聯儲 利率降低-市場定價 10 月份降 25 個基點的機率為 95%，12 月份降低 84%-美元繼續受益於避險的需求。

DXY 指數保持在 98 以上，反映了市場認為美國資產保持比日本更穩定。

結果：即使美元走軟也看起來相對於日元強勁，使美元/日元保持良好的支撐。

直到 美聯儲 加速放寬或日本央行收緊，兩個經濟體之間的收益差距將繼續固定日元走弱。

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什麼會改變趨勢？

幾個觸發程序可能會逆轉或減緩日元的下跌：

1. 日本央行政策樞紐： 鷹派的聲明或意外加息可能會震驚市並提高日元。
   
   
2. 協調干預： 財政部和日本央行的聯合行動可能會產生更明顯、更持久的反彈。
   
   
3. 全球排除風險事件： 重大股票調整或地緣政治爆發可能會恢復安全避險需求。
   
   
4. 美國加快降息： 美聯儲可能會縮小收益差，並抑制美元/日元走勢。
   
   

然而，如果沒有這些催化劑之一，日元的疲軟似乎將繼續。

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美元日元技術見解：美元/日元目標 155

在撰寫本文時，每日圖表上顯而易見的買入壓力，貨幣對處於 152.36 左右的價格探索模式。數量數據顯示買家主導地位，而賣家還沒有表現足夠的信心來挑戰趨勢。

如果賣出壓力增加，日元回歸可能會引發向 147.10 和 146.24 支撐位下跌。但是，如果看漲勢頭持續，美元/日元可能將其反彈延伸至 155，標誌著 2025 年的潛在新高點。

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技術摘要：趨勢仍看漲，但升幅 揮發性 接近干預水平意味著交易者應該管理 位置大小， 保證金使用，以及 槓桿 小心曝光。

交易者可以通過使用來監控這些美元/日元水平 德里夫 MT5 先進的圖表工具，可精確進出入時。

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日元投資影響

對於交易者來說，政策差異仍然是推動美元/日元的關鍵主題。

• 短期策略：只要 151 個保持為支撐位，下跌進行購買可能仍然有利，但交易者應密切關注東京的言語。
  
  
• 中期定位：保持靈活性可能是有利的-干預或政策意外可能會導致急劇反轉。
  
  
• 跨市場影響： 持倉交易的回報範圍超過外匯，可能促進由廉價日元借貸資助的全球股票和債券流量。

我們的外匯 交易計算器 可協助確定手提交易策略的最佳頭寸大小、保證金要求和潛在回報。

除非日本很快收緊政策，否則 2025 年可能標誌著全球貨幣貿易的全面回歸-以及日元延長的疲軟期。

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黃金收盤接近 4,000 美元， 交易約為每盎司 3,970 美元 -歷史上最高水平。今年上漲超過 50%，反映了更深厚的全球趨勢：投資者正在遠離紙幣轉向有形價值。隨著中央銀行購買、ETF 流入以及明顯去美元化的推動，黃金已成為 2025 年的終極「信託對沖」。

重要提示

• 黃金至今已上漲 50%，測試了 3,970 美元/盎司，是有史以來最強勁的表現。
• 中央銀行採購量：每月約 80 公噸（世界黃金委員會，2025 年）。
• ETF 流入量：2025 年上半年上半年增加 200 噸（彭博金融公司）。
• 美聯儲降息概率：94.6%（CME FedWatch 工具）。
• 瑞銀目標：4,200 美元；高盛：到 2026 年前 4,900 美元。
• 宏觀主題：去美元化和對法定貨幣的信任下降。

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黃金的創紀錄反彈-推動它的原因

黃金 2025 年反彈 開始於三月，當時價格突破了 3,000 美元大關，然後在四月 3,500 美元，到 9 月為 3,800 美元。每個突破都受到一致的 ETF 流入和中央銀行需求的支持，這些都在創造了結構性的購買壓力。

彭博數據顯示，黃金支持的 ETF 在 2025 年上半年增長 200 公噸，這是自 2020 年以來最大的跳躍。交易者還增加了對 SPDR 黃金股 ETF 的看漲曝光率，從而加強機構動力。

替代文字：一條線條圖，顯示 2005 年至 2025 年的全球黃金 ETF 月流量（公噸）。

資料來源：彭博金融股份有限公司、SSIM

同時，較低利率使黃金相對於帶收益資產變得更具吸引力。美國聯儲 9 月份的 25 個基點下跌，以及 10 月份再次的預期繼續削弱美元，並促進避險資產的需求。

中央銀行黃金買入：去美元化對黃金的影響

世界黃金委員會（WGC）數據顯示，亞洲、中東和拉丁美洲的中央銀行正以創紀錄的速度購買黃金，今年平均每月 80 噸。

高盛預測每月 70—80 噸中央銀行需求將持續到 2026 年，這表明儲備將遠離美元的長期重新平衡。

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黃金以指定中央銀行儲備金總持有的百分比

Alttext：水平條形圖，顯示黃金百分比作為各個國家總儲備的份額。

由於新興經濟體對沖財政預防，這種轉變形成了更廣泛的脫元化趨勢的一部分 揮發性 和地緣政治衝擊。西方機構投資者在全球不確定情況下使用黃金作為穩定錨點。

摩根大通指出，近幾年來，央行並不是唯一增加黃金持有的相對份額的公司。在金融黃金市場中，投資者的期貨定位保持長，預期價格將在未來將上漲。COMEX 黃金的非商業期貨和期權持倉（金屬交易主要期貨和期權市場）在 2024 年實質計上創新高。

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宏觀背景：壓力下的信任

美國政府 9 月關閉，阻止了官方經濟數據，迫使市場依賴私人估計。ABC News 報導，如果延長，這種干擾可能會減少第四季國內生產總值的 2.4 個百分點。

在數據中斷之中，美聯儲面臨更高的不確定性，導致市場偏好黃金等穩定資產。

在歐洲和亞洲，債券收益率上升、財政壓力和政治波動，進一步加強了黃金不僅僅是通脹對沖，而是信託對沖。

4,000 美元是上限還是一個檢查站？

分析師有分歧。

• 瑞銀預測到年底為 4,200 美元。
• 高盛將 2026 年的目標提高至 4,900 美元。

技術數據來自 德里夫 MT5 雖然近期整合在 3,970 美元至 4,000 美元左右是可能的。如果買家保持這個區域，突破可能會推動黃金走向 4,200 美元以上。支撐位維持穩定在 3,630 美元和 3,310 美元。

黃金技術水平（德里夫 MT5 日圖）

等級

類型

含義

4,000 美元

阻力

關鍵心理障礙

3,630 美元

支援

短期累積區

三百三十元

支援

結構需求樓層

四千二百元至四千九百元

目標

確認突破時潛在範圍

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從恐懼貿易到信仰貿易

黃金 2025 年的飆升並不是對恐慌的反應，而是重新定價信心。正如一位戰略家所說的： 「這不是危機動作。市場承認紙張承諾有限制。」

持續的通脹、增長的赤字和地緣政治不穩定，使對法定系統的信心減弱。黃金已成為財務信譽的新基準，同時是安全避難所和戰略儲備資產。
如何在德里夫上交易黃金

步驟 1：選擇您的平台

選擇適合您交易風格的 Deriv 平台：

• 德里夫 MT5 — 用於採用先進的圖表和專業分析工具以差價合約為基礎的曝光。
• 德里夫交易員 — 用於具有簡化，直觀的界面適用於固定時交易。
• 網上交易員 — 用於深度流動性，高速執行和專業級訂單管理。

步驟 2：選擇儀器類型

選擇符合您交易目標的產品：

• 差價合約（差價合約）— 利用槓桿交易上漲或下跌的黃金價格。
• 乘數 — 以較小的資本控制較大的頭寸，同時限制下跌。
• 定期合約 — 透過預先定義的付款來推測短期價格變動。

步驟 3：應用風險管理

在進行交易之前保護您的資本：

• 設定止損和止盈訂單。
• 使用 Deriv 的根據您的風險承受能力計算頭寸 交易計算器。
• 在上線之前，在演示模式下練習策略。
  
  

步驟 4：執行交易

準備好後，將黃金交易放在您選擇的 Deriv 平台上。隨著價格走勢，監控開倉頭寸、查看保證金使用情況，並調整訂單。

黃金技術見解：黃金走向何？

高盛預計，到 2026 年中期，黃金可能達到每盎司 4,000 美元，到 2026 年 12 月前達 4,900 美元。

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另一方面，摩根大通預計，黃金在 2025 年第四季平均每盎司 3,675 美元/盎司，到 2026 年第二季度將接近 4,000 美元，主要由於中央銀行購買和持續的市場不確定性所導致。值得注意的是，看漲分析師預測到 2030 年，如果當前趨勢持續持續，價格可能高達 10,000 美元/盎司，儘管這種情況取決於持續的全球經濟脆弱性和地緣政治不穩定。

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一些技術指標表明黃金處於「極度過買」的領域，因此可能在進一步上漲之前短期價格調整。主要支撐位現在超過 3,800 美元，阻力位在 3,900 美元和 4,000 美元左右，如果中央銀行需求放緩或地緣政治緊張局勢緩解，則下行風險。

XAU/USD（黃金兌美元）的每日燭台圖表顯示 8 月初至 10 月上旬的強勁上漲趨勢。

資料來源：德里夫 MT5

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