Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

‍

Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  

Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

‍

La storica correlazione inversa tra l’oro e i rendimenti dei Treasury USA si è di fatto interrotta nel 2025. Il metallo prezioso è salito oltre 4.000 $ l’oncia, nonostante i rendimenti dei Treasury si siano stabilizzati e il dollaro USA si sia indebolito. Questa divergenza segnala un cambiamento più profondo nel sentiment di rischio globale: gli investitori non considerano più i titoli di Stato USA come una copertura affidabile. Al contrario, l’oro è diventato l’asset rifugio preferito in un mercato scosso da preoccupazioni sul debito, rischio inflazione e incertezza fiscale.

Punti chiave

• Circa 9,2 trilioni di dollari di debito negoziabile USA scadranno nel 2025, costringendo il Tesoro a rifinanziare quantità record di obbligazioni in un contesto di domanda debole.
  
• Il deficit federale è previsto a 1,9 trilioni di dollari, alimentando timori di debito insostenibile e compiacenza fiscale.
  
• L’inflazione persistente e gli shock legati ai dazi hanno aumentato il premio a termine sui titoli a lungo termine, facendo comportare i Treasury più come asset rischiosi.
  
• Il dollaro USA è sceso nonostante i rendimenti siano rimasti elevati, riflettendo una fiducia in calo nella posizione fiscale del governo.
  
• L’oro è salito del 52% da inizio anno, superando i 4.000 $, mentre banche centrali e investitori si spostano dalle obbligazioni agli asset reali.
  

Mercato dei rendimenti dei Treasury sotto pressione

Il mercato dei Treasury USA ha vissuto uno degli anni più difficili delle ultime decadi. Un’ondata di debito in scadenza – circa 9,2 trilioni di dollari, gran parte concentrata nella prima metà dell’anno – ha costretto il governo a emettere nuovi titoli a ritmo serrato. L’appetito degli investitori non ha tenuto il passo, portando a una vendita generalizzata e a un aumento dei rendimenti, soprattutto sulle scadenze più lunghe.

Allo stesso tempo, il deficit fiscale è salito a 1,9 trilioni di dollari, alimentando i timori che l’aumento della spesa pubblica possa peggiorare la sostenibilità del debito a lungo termine. Gli investitori hanno richiesto rendimenti più alti per detenere debito USA, riprezzando di fatto i Treasury come asset più rischiosi che difensivi.

La situazione è stata aggravata da shock tecnici e di policy – inclusi cambiamenti nella politica commerciale USA e nelle tariffe – che hanno distorto i prezzi e aumentato il premio a termine. Questa combinazione di eccesso di offerta, ansia da inflazione e preoccupazioni fiscali ha reso i Treasury più volatili che in qualsiasi altro momento dal 2020.

L’oro come bene rifugio colma il vuoto

Normalmente, una vendita di Treasury rafforzerebbe il dollaro USA e peserebbe sull’oro. Ma il 2025 ha stravolto questo schema. Il dollaro è sceso insieme alle obbligazioni, rivelando una crisi di fiducia nella credibilità fiscale degli Stati Uniti. Questo ha aperto la strada all’oro per assumere il ruolo difensivo un tempo detenuto dai Treasury.

Investitori, gestori di fondi e banche centrali hanno accelerato gli acquisti di oro fisico e ETF, vedendo il metallo come una riserva di valore più affidabile in un contesto in cui il debito garantito dal governo appare fragile. 

Il risultato è stato un rally storico oltre i 4.000 $ l’oncia, segnando la migliore performance dell’oro in quasi cinquant’anni.

Oro vs rendimenti dei Treasury USA - Confronto delle performance 2025

Fonti: World Gold Council (Mid-Year 2025 Outlook), Reuters (8 ottobre 2025), YCharts U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rate Series.

I dati evidenziano come oro e rendimenti ora si muovano all’unisono. Il rally del 42% dell’oro insieme a rendimenti stabili intorno al 4,1% conferma che la tradizionale correlazione inversa – in cui l’oro sale quando i rendimenti scendono – è crollata. Ora, entrambi gli asset rispondono all’incertezza fiscale e alla sfiducia degli investitori nella stabilità delle policy.

Conseguenze della rottura della correlazione oro–Treasury

La rottura della copertura oro–Treasury ha reso i mercati più volatili e meno prevedibili. I rendimenti sono rimasti elevati, mentre le azioni hanno faticato a trovare stabilità in mezzo a correlazioni cross-asset che prima si compensavano. La debolezza del dollaro ha amplificato i timori d’inflazione, creando un circolo vizioso che sostiene ulteriormente la domanda di oro.

Alcuni analisti, tuttavia, vedono la possibilità di un’inversione più avanti nel 2025. Se l’economia rallenta e la Federal Reserve taglia i tassi d’interesse, i rendimenti potrebbero scendere e ripristinare parzialmente la vecchia correlazione inversa. Ma per ora, oro e Treasury si muovono insieme – segno che la base strutturale della copertura classica si è incrinata.

Previsioni sul prezzo dell’oro 2025–2026

Gli analisti restano divisi su cosa accadrà dopo. Goldman Sachs prevede che l’oro possa mantenersi vicino ai massimi storici se i rischi fiscali persistono, mentre alcuni strategist ritengono che rendimenti più bassi dovuti a una possibile recessione potrebbero alleviare la pressione sulle obbligazioni più avanti nell’anno.

Tuttavia, il problema di fondo – forte emissione di debito, inflazione persistente e fiducia calante nella gestione fiscale USA – indica un riequilibrio di lungo periodo. I Treasury non sono più visti come asset rifugio puro; fanno parte dell’ambiente di rischio. L’oro, invece, è diventato l’ancora di stabilità in tempi incerti.

Analisi tecnica del prezzo dell’oro

Al momento della scrittura, una forte pressione d’acquisto è evidente sul grafico giornaliero. Tuttavia, prezzi vicini al limite superiore del canale ascendente potrebbero suggerire un possibile pullback verso il limite inferiore del canale a 3.850 $. Questa ipotesi di pullback è supportata dal fatto che l’RSI si trova in territorio di ipercomprato. D’altro canto, il MACD mostra un forte slancio rialzista.  Un movimento deciso oltre i livelli attuali potrebbe dare il via libera ai compratori per puntare a 4.100 $. 

Implicazioni per l’investimento in oro

Per trader e gestori di asset, lo scenario 2025 segna una nuova realtà per la copertura.
Nel breve termine, l’oro probabilmente consoliderà sopra i 4.000 $, sostenuto dalla domanda costante delle banche centrali e dai flussi rifugio. Se una recessione dovesse innescare tagli dei tassi, i prezzi delle obbligazioni potrebbero recuperare – ma l’oro manterrà probabilmente il suo appeal strategico come protezione contro il rischio di policy e di credito.

Nel medio termine, la strategia dovrebbe favorire un’esposizione diversificata all’oro su Deriv MT5 , dove i trader possono utilizzare i multipliers per gestire la leverage in condizioni di volatilità. Nel frattempo, strumenti come il trading calculator di Deriv possono aiutare a mantenere una gestione del rischio disciplinata man mano che la volatilità dell’oro aumenta.

Strategie di trading sull’oro sulle piattaforme Deriv

I trader su Deriv possono accedere al mercato dell’oro tramite una gamma di piattaforme pensate per diversi stili e obiettivi di trading.

Le nostre piattaforme offrono accesso allo spot gold (XAU/USD) con spread competitivi a partire da 0,3 pip, profonda liquidità e opzioni di leverage fino a 1:1000, a seconda del tipo di conto e della giurisdizione. La piattaforma supporta molteplici tipi di ordine, strumenti avanzati di charting e indicatori integrati per l’analisi tecnica.

I trader che cercano esposizione ai movimenti del prezzo dell’oro con rischio controllato possono utilizzare i Deriv Multipliers, che consentono una partecipazione con leva e una perdita massima fissa. Questo prodotto permette ai clienti di sfruttare la volatilità a breve termine dell’oro senza i requisiti di margine tradizionali.

Per aiutare nella preparazione delle operazioni e nel monitoraggio delle posizioni, i trading calculator di Deriv aiutano gli utenti a determinare la dimensione del contratto, i requisiti di margine e il valore del pip per oro e altri strumenti. Strumenti aggiuntivi disponibili su tutte le piattaforme includono funzioni di stop-loss e take-profit, che consentono una gestione precisa degli ordini e dell’allocazione del capitale.

‍

Sì, secondo gli analisti, l'orientamento fiscale espansivo del Giappone e i tassi di interesse estremamente bassi potrebbero rilanciare il carry trade globale. Con lo yen che scende ai minimi di sette mesi e l'USD/JPY con scoppiano sopra i 151, i trader stanno ancora una volta prendendo in prestito yen per inseguire rendimenti più elevati risorse. Tokyo deve ora far fronte a crescenti pressioni per difendere la propria valuta, visto che i mercati puntano al 155 come prossimo traguardo. A meno che la Banca del Giappone (BoJ) non decida di adottare una politica più restrittiva o di intervenire direttamente, le negoziazioni finanziate dallo yen potrebbero continuare ad alimentare la propensione al rischio globale fino al 2025.

‍

Conclusioni chiave

• L'USD/JPY ha toccato il massimo di sette mesi sopra i 151,00 a causa della rinnovata debolezza dello yen e del sentimento globale di propensione al rischio.
  
  
• Le politiche pro-stimolo di Sanae Takaichi aumentano le aspettative di spesa fiscale su larga scala, ritardando l'inasprimento della BoJ.
  
  
• L'attività di carry trade riprende a crescere, poiché gli investitori prendono in prestito yen a basso costo per investire in asset ad alto rendimento all'estero.
  
  
• Tokyo avverte di un'eccessiva volatilità, ma i mercati continuano a testare la soglia di intervento del Giappone.
  
  
• L'USD/JPY potrebbe testarne 155, salvo un brusco cambiamento della BoJ o un intervento governativo coordinato.
  
  

‍

Lo stimolo fiscale giapponese per il 2025 e il calo dello yen

Il cambiamento politico del Giappone sta provocando una nuova pressione al ribasso sullo yen. Dopo l'elezione di Sanae Takaichi a nuova leader del Partito Liberal Democratico (LDP), gli investitori si aspettano che il suo governo aumenti la spesa pubblica per sostenere la crescita.

Questa strategia potrebbe stimolare l'economia, ma solleva preoccupazioni sulla sostenibilità fiscale e complica gli sforzi della BoJ per il controllo dell'inflazione. L'inflazione giapponese si è attestata al 2,7% ad agosto, ancora al di sopra dell'obiettivo del 2%, il che suggerisce che la politica dovrebbe rimanere rigida.

‍

Tasso di inflazione del Giappone

Tuttavia, le aspettative vanno nella direzione opposta: i mercati ora vedono solo una probabilità del 26% di un rialzo dei tassi della BoJ entro il 30 ottobre, in calo rispetto al 60% prima della vittoria di Takaichi.

‍

Tassi di interesse della Banca del Giappone

Questo cambiamento di prospettiva ha reso meno attraenti gli investimenti denominati in yen e ha alimentato i deflussi di capitali verso i mercati a più alto rendimento, accelerando il declino della valuta.

‍

Lo yen giapponese si concentra sugli scambi commerciali mentre Takaichi scuote i mercati

Il carry trade è tornato al centro dell'attenzione del mercato. Con i tassi giapponesi ancorati vicino allo zero, i trader stanno prendendo in prestito yen per acquistare asset in economie con rendimenti più elevati, come gli Stati Uniti o l'Australia.

Questa strategia prospera quando è globale rischio l'appetito è elevato e il rally azionario del 2025 ha fornito lo sfondo perfetto. Il Nasdaq, l'S&P 500 e il giapponese Nikkei 225 hanno tutti raggiunto nuovi massimi record di recente, riflettendo un'ampia fiducia degli investitori. Lo stesso ottimismo ha eroso la domanda di beni rifugio dello yen, rafforzando il suo ruolo di valuta di finanziamento di riferimento a livello mondiale.

La dinamica rispecchia il boom del carry trade della metà degli anni 2000, quando la debolezza dello yen ha alimentato gli investimenti speculativi in tutto il mondo, fino a quando un improvviso cambiamento di politica della BoJ ha invertito la tendenza. Per ora, tuttavia, l'orientamento monetario accomodante e l'espansione fiscale del Giappone mantengono viva la strategia.

Informazioni sul trading: i carry trade sono redditizi quando la volatilità è bassa e gli spread dei tassi di interesse sono ampi, ma possono attenuarsi violentemente quando il sentiment cambia. Scopri di più sul trading in mercati turbolenti nel nostro guida alla volatilità del mercato.

‍

Il dilemma di Tokyo: intervenire o tollerare lo scivolamento

Il Ministero delle Finanze giapponese è intrappolato in un problema familiare. Con l'USD/JPY ora al di sopra di 151, i trader sono attenti ai segnali di intervento del governo, che storicamente si innescano quando la coppia si avvicina a 150-152.

Il ministro delle Finanze Katsunobu Kato ha ribadito la disponibilità del Giappone a contrastare «l'eccessiva volatilità», ma il mercato rimane scettico. Gli interventi sono costosi e di breve durata a meno che non siano sostenuti da un allineamento della politica monetaria. Con l'amministrazione di Takaichi incline all'espansione fiscale, è improbabile che i soli avvertimenti verbali fermino la vendita dello yen.

Ciò lascia a Tokyo due opzioni: intervenire direttamente, rischiando un successo limitato, o aspettare e sperare che il mercato si stabilizzi, una scelta rischiosa poiché il posizionamento speculativo si inclina fortemente verso i long USD/JPY.

‍

Il fattore USA: un dollaro resiliente nonostante i venti contrari

Il dollaro USA rimane stabile anche in mezzo alle sfide interne. Nonostante la chiusura del governo in corso e le aspettative di Federal Reserve tagli dei tassi - con i mercati che prevedono una probabilità del 95% di un taglio di 25 punti base a ottobre e dell'84% a dicembre - il dollaro continua a beneficiare della domanda di beni rifugio.

L'indice DXY si mantiene al di sopra di 98, riflettendo l'opinione del mercato secondo cui gli asset statunitensi rimangono più stabili di quelli giapponesi.

Il risultato: anche un indebolimento del dollaro appare forte rispetto allo yen, mantenendo l'USD/JPY ben sostenuto.

Fino al Fed accelera l'allentamento o la BoJ si restringe, il divario di rendimento tra le due economie continuerà ad ancorare la debolezza dello yen.

‍

Cosa potrebbe cambiare la tendenza?

Diversi fattori potrebbero invertire o rallentare il declino dello yen:

1. Ruota politica della BoJ: Una dichiarazione aggressiva o un rialzo a sorpresa dei tassi potrebbero scioccare i mercati e sollevare lo yen.
   
   
2. Intervento coordinato: L'azione congiunta del Ministero delle Finanze e della BoJ potrebbe produrre un rimbalzo più netto e duraturo.
   
   
3. Evento globale di avversione al rischio: Un'importante correzione azionaria o una riacutizzazione geopolitica potrebbero ripristinare la domanda di beni rifugio.
   
   
4. Tagli più rapidi dei tassi negli Stati Uniti: Una Fed accomodante potrebbe ridurre i differenziali di rendimento e frenare lo slancio dell'USD/JPY.
   
   

Senza uno di questi catalizzatori, tuttavia, la debolezza dello yen sembra destinata a continuare.

‍

Approfondimenti tecnici su USD JPY: USD/JPY punta a 155

Al momento in cui scriviamo, la pressione all'acquisto è evidente sul grafico giornaliero, con la coppia in modalità di scoperta del prezzo intorno ai 152,36. I dati sul volume mostrano la posizione dominante degli acquirenti e i venditori non hanno ancora dimostrato sufficiente convinzione per sfidare la tendenza.

Se la pressione di vendita aumenta, un ritorno dello yen potrebbe innescare un pullback verso i livelli di supporto di 147,10 e 146,24. Tuttavia, se il momentum rialzista persiste, l'USD/JPY potrebbe estendere il suo rally verso 155, segnando un potenziale nuovo massimo per il 2025.

‍

Aspetto tecnico: la tendenza rimane rialzista, ma accentuata volatilità livelli di intervento vicini significa che i trader dovrebbero gestire dimensione della posizione, utilizzo dei marginie leva esposizione attenta.

I trader possono monitorare questi livelli USD/JPY utilizzando Deriv MT5 strumenti grafici avanzati per tempi di entrata e uscita precisi.

‍

Implicazioni sugli investimenti in yen

Per i trader, la divergenza delle politiche rimane il tema chiave che guida l'USD/JPY.

• strategie a breve termine: Gli acquisti in base ai cali potrebbero rimanere favorevoli fintanto che il 151 si mantiene come supporto, ma i trader dovrebbero monitorare attentamente la retorica di Tokyo.
  
  
• Posizionamento a medio termine: Mantenere la flessibilità può essere favorevole: interventi o sorprese politiche potrebbero innescare brusche inversioni.
  
  
• Impatto trasversale: Il rendimento del carry trade si estende oltre il FX, aumentando potenzialmente i flussi azionari e obbligazionari globali finanziati da prestiti a basso costo in yen.

Il nostro forex calcolatore di trading può aiutare a determinare il dimensionamento ottimale della posizione, i requisiti di margine e i potenziali rendimenti per le strategie di carry-trade.

A meno che il Giappone non inasprisca presto la sua politica, il 2025 potrebbe segnare il pieno ritorno del carry trade globale e un prolungato periodo di debolezza dello yen.

‍

L'oro si avvicina alla soglia dei 4.000 dollari, scambiato intorno ai 3.970 dollari l'oncia - il suo livello più alto nella storia. Il rally, in crescita di oltre il 50% da inizio anno, riflette una tendenza globale più profonda: gli investitori si stanno allontanando dalla carta moneta e si stanno orientando verso un valore tangibile. Grazie agli acquisti da parte delle banche centrali, agli afflussi di ETF e a una chiara spinta alla de-dollarizzazione, l'oro è diventato la «copertura fiduciaria» definitiva nel 2025.

Conclusioni chiave

• L'oro è salito del 50% da inizio anno, testando 3.970 $/oz, la sua chiusura più forte di sempre.
• Acquisti da parte delle banche centrali: ~80 tonnellate al mese (World Gold Council, 2025).
• Afflussi di ETF: +200 tonnellate nel primo semestre 2025 (Bloomberg Financial LP).
• Probabilità di taglio dei tassi da parte della Fed: 94,6% (CME FedWatch Tool).
• Obiettivo UBS: 4.200 dollari; Goldman Sachs: 4.900 dollari entro il 2026.
• Tema macro: de-dollarizzazione e calo della fiducia nella moneta fiat.

Il rally record dell'oro: cosa lo sta guidando

Il rally dell'oro nel 2025 è iniziato a marzo, quando i prezzi hanno superato la soglia dei 3.000 dollari, poi i 3.500 dollari ad aprile e i 3.800 dollari a settembre. Ogni breakout è stato sostenuto dai consistenti afflussi di ETF e dalla domanda delle banche centrali, che insieme stanno creando una pressione strutturale all'acquisto.

I dati di Bloomberg mostrano che gli ETF garantiti dall'oro sono aumentati di 200 tonnellate nella prima metà del 2025, il balzo più grande dal 2020. I trader hanno inoltre aumentato l'esposizione rialzista all'ETF SPDR Gold Shares, rafforzando lo slancio istituzionale.

Nel frattempo, i tassi di interesse più bassi hanno reso l'oro più attraente rispetto agli asset fruttiferi. Il taglio di 25 punti base della Federal Reserve statunitense a settembre e le aspettative di un altro a ottobre continuano a indebolire il dollaro e ad alimentare la domanda di beni rifugio.

Acquisto di oro da parte delle banche centrali: impatto della de-dollarizzazione sull'oro

I dati del World Gold Council (WGC) mostrano che le banche centrali di Asia, Medio Oriente e America Latina stanno acquistando oro a un ritmo record, con una media di 80 tonnellate al mese quest'anno.

Goldman Sachs prevede che la domanda delle banche centrali prosegua nel 2026 da 70 a 80 tonnellate/mese, segnalando un ribilanciamento a lungo termine delle riserve rispetto al dollaro USA.

Oro come percentuale delle riserve totali in alcune banche centrali

Questo cambiamento fa parte di una più ampia tendenza alla de-dollarizzazione, in quanto le economie emergenti si proteggono dalle spese fiscali volatilità e shock geopolitici. Gli investitori istituzionali occidentali stanno seguendo l'esempio, utilizzando l'oro come ancoraggio di stabilità in un contesto di incertezza globale.

JP Morgan osserva che le CB non sono state le uniche ad aumentare la loro quota relativa di riserve auree negli ultimi due anni. Nei mercati finanziari dell'oro, il posizionamento degli investitori sui futures rimane lungo, con l'aspettativa che il prezzo aumenti di valore in futuro. Le posizioni a termine e opzioni lunghe non commerciali sull'oro del COMEX, il principale mercato dei futures e delle opzioni per il trading di metalli, hanno raggiunto un nuovo massimo nel 2024 in termini reali.

Il contesto macroeconomico: fiducia sotto pressione

La chiusura del governo degli Stati Uniti a settembre ha interrotto i dati economici ufficiali, costringendo i mercati a fare affidamento su stime private. ABC News riporta che questa interruzione potrebbe ridurre fino a 2,4 punti percentuali il PIL del quarto trimestre se prolungata.

A causa del blackout dei dati, la Federal Reserve deve far fronte a una maggiore incertezza, spingendo i mercati a favorire asset stabili come l'oro.

In Europa e in Asia, rendimenti obbligazionari più elevati, tensioni fiscali e volatilità politica hanno ulteriormente rafforzato la narrativa secondo cui l'oro non è solo una copertura contro l'inflazione, è una copertura fiduciaria.

4.000 dollari sono un tetto massimo o solo un checkpoint?

Gli analisti sono divisi.

• UBS prevede 4.200 dollari entro la fine dell'anno.
• Goldman Sachs ha alzato il suo obiettivo per il 2026 a 4.900 dollari.

Dati tecnici di Deriv MT5 mostra un forte volume di acquisti, sebbene sia possibile un consolidamento a breve termine tra 3.970 e 4.000$. Se gli acquirenti restassero in questa zona, un breakout potrebbe spingere l'oro verso oltre 4.200 dollari. I livelli di supporto rimangono stabili a 3.630 e 3.310 dollari.

Livelli tecnici dell'oro (grafico giornaliero Deriv MT5)

Dal commercio della paura al commercio della fede

L'impennata dell'oro nel 2025 non è una reazione al panico, è una rivalutazione della fiducia. Come ha detto uno stratega: «Questa non è una mossa di crisi. È il mercato che ammette che le promesse cartacee hanno dei limiti».

L'inflazione persistente, i deficit crescenti e l'instabilità geopolitica hanno indebolito la fiducia nei sistemi fiat. L'oro è diventato il nuovo punto di riferimento per la credibilità finanziaria, fungendo sia da rifugio sicuro che da risorsa di riserva strategica.

Come negoziare oro su Deriv

Fase 1: Scegli la tua piattaforma

Seleziona la piattaforma Deriv più adatta al tuo stile di trading:

• Deriv MT5 — per un'esposizione basata su CFD con grafici avanzati e strumenti di analisi professionali.
• DerivTrader — per operazioni a tempo fisso con un'interfaccia semplificata e intuitiva.
• Deriva cTrader — per una liquidità profonda, un'esecuzione ad alta velocità e una gestione degli ordini di livello professionale.

Fase 2: Seleziona il tipo di strumento

Scegli il prodotto che corrisponde ai tuoi obiettivi di trading:

• CFD (Contratti per differenza): fai trading sull'aumento o sul calo dei prezzi dell'oro con leva.
• Moltiplicatori: controlla posizioni più grandi con un capitale inferiore, limitando al contempo i ribassi.
• Contratti a tempo determinato: specula sulle variazioni di prezzo a breve termine con pagamenti predefiniti.

Fase 3: applicare la gestione del rischio

Proteggi il tuo capitale prima di entrare in un'operazione:

• Imposta ordini stop-loss e take-profit.
• Calcola la dimensione della posizione in base alla tua tolleranza al rischio utilizzando Deriv calcolatore di trading.
• Fai pratica con le strategie in modalità demo prima di andare in diretta.
  

Fase 4: Esegui il tuo trade

Una volta preparato, effettua il tuo scambio sull'oro sulla piattaforma Deriv prescelta. Monitora le posizioni aperte, esamina l'utilizzo dei margini e aggiusta gli ordini man mano che i prezzi si evolvono.

Approfondimenti tecnici sull'oro: dove va l'oro?

Goldman Sachs prevede che l'oro potrebbe raggiungere i 4.000 dollari l'oncia entro la metà del 2026 e i 4.900 dollari entro dicembre 2026.

J.P. Morgan, d'altra parte, prevede che l'oro raggiungerà una media di 3.675 dollari l'oncia nel quarto trimestre del 2025, per avvicinarsi ai 4.000 dollari entro il secondo trimestre del 2026, trainato in gran parte dagli acquisti delle banche centrali e dalla persistente incertezza del mercato. In particolare, gli analisti rialzisti prevedono possibili prezzi fino a 10.000 dollari l'oncia entro il 2030 se le tendenze attuali continueranno, sebbene questo scenario dipenda dalla fragilità economica globale e dall'instabilità geopolitica in corso.

Alcuni indicatori tecnici suggeriscono che l'oro sia in territorio «estremamente ipercomprato», rendendo possibili correzioni dei prezzi a breve termine prima di ulteriori guadagni. I livelli di supporto chiave sono ora superiori a 3.800 dollari, con una resistenza intorno ai 3.900 e 4.000 dollari, e il rischio di ribasso in caso di rallentamento della domanda da parte delle banche centrali o allentamento delle tensioni geopolitiche.