Based on current momentum, Nvidia is positioned to take the lead in market valuation by 2026 - potentially becoming the first company closing in on a $5 trillion market cap. Its combination of record earnings, aggressive AI infrastructure investments, and vertical expansion across hardware and software ecosystems gives it a clear edge.

However, Microsoft remains its closest rival, leveraging its AI integration across productivity tools, cloud platforms, and gaming ecosystems to sustain stable, earnings-driven growth. The outcome may hinge on how effectively each company converts AI innovation into long-term revenue resilience.

Key takeaways

• Nvidia’s market value surged by $230 billion in one day, taking it within 3% of the $5 trillion mark - a first in market history.
  
• Nvidia’s share price closed at $201.03, up 5% on the day, and is now testing the $210 resistance as investors price in stronger AI infrastructure growth.
  
• The company announced a $1 billion partnership with Nokia to build AI-powered 5G and 6G networks, expanding its influence beyond data centres.
  
• Microsoft continues to build AI leadership through Azure, OpenAI partnerships, and the Activision-Blizzard acquisition, reinforcing its diversified model.
  
• Analysts expect Nvidia to report $4.51 EPS in 2026 and $6.43 in 2027, implying a P/E ratio near 28.7 - relatively modest for its growth rate.
  
• Both companies could exceed $5 trillion before 2026, but Nvidia’s pure-play AI exposure makes it more sensitive to the next phase of the AI investment cycle.
  

Nvidia Nokia partnership: Nvidia’s $230 billion day 

Nvidia’s stock rally in late October - adding over $230 billion in market value - marks a new phase in the AI investment cycle. 

The surge followed the company’s GTC Washington conference, where it announced multiple partnerships and new AI infrastructure projects. The headline deal was with Nokia, where Nvidia committed $1 billion to integrate its AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) systems into next-generation 5G and 6G infrastructure.

This expansion moves Nvidia beyond its traditional GPU dominance into telecom infrastructure, widening its total addressable market. The firm’s strategy mirrors its approach to data centres - owning both the hardware layer and the software stack that powers AI workloads.

Investors can track Nvidia’s price action and volatility directly through CFDs on Deriv MT5.

Race to $5 Trillion market cap: Nvidia’s vs Microsoft’s stability

The competition between Nvidia and Microsoft represents two distinct approaches to AI market leadership:

• Nvidia’s momentum-driven model: Fueled by exponential demand for GPUs, accelerated computing, and partnerships with every major AI player - including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and Oracle.
  
• Microsoft’s diversified model: Built on recurring revenues from Azure, Microsoft 365, and gaming ecosystems like Activision-Blizzard, with AI woven throughout its services.
  

At current valuations, both companies are within reach of the $5 trillion milestone. Nvidia’s faster earnings trajectory - $86.59 billion in trailing 12-month net income - gives it a near-term advantage. Yet Microsoft’s consistent cash flow and balance sheet strength make it more resilient in the event of an AI market slowdown.

AI expansion through strategic partnerships

Nvidia has positioned itself as a central node in the AI economy by investing directly in its ecosystem.

Recent moves include:

• $100 billion investment plan with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for next-generation model training.
  
• $5 billion equity stake in Intel, focusing on joint AI chip and data centre development.
  
• $1 billion equity investment in Nokia, supporting AI-native 5G/6G networks.
  

These investments transform Nvidia from a chip supplier into an AI infrastructure conglomerate - similar to how Microsoft evolved from a software company into a diversified tech leader in the 2010s.

Nvidia & Microsoft Earnings and valuation outlook 2026

Nvidia’s forward-looking metrics suggest its valuation may still be grounded in fundamentals:

• Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates: $4.51 per share.
  
• Fiscal 2027 projections: $6.43 per share.
  
• Forward P/E ratio around 28–30, assuming price stability near $200.
  

For Microsoft, consensus expects steady double-digit earnings growth, supported by Azure expansion and monetisation of AI tools across Office, GitHub, and LinkedIn.

If both companies meet current projections, Nvidia could exceed $5 trillion in market cap before mid-2026, while Microsoft may reach that milestone through consistent compound growth over a longer horizon.

Market drivers and risks ahead

The AI market is entering a capital-intensive phase where hyperscalers are increasing infrastructure spending, driving Nvidia’s top-line expansion.
However, potential risks include:

• A slowdown in corporate AI investment if macroeconomic conditions tighten.
  
• Competitive advances from AMD or custom silicon by hyperscalers.
  
• Regulatory pressures on AI model deployment that could affect demand.
  

For Microsoft, the key risk lies in monetisation speed - whether Copilot, Azure AI, and AI-integrated products deliver enough incremental revenue to justify its valuation expansion.

Use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate price risk exposure to highly volatile AI tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Nvidia technical insights

At the time of writing, Nvidia’s stock is trading around the $201 mark, breaking decisively above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands - a sign of strong bullish momentum. However, such a sharp move beyond the upper band often indicates overextension, suggesting the stock could be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising sharply, currently hovering around 65, and heading towards the overbought region (above 70). This momentum implies that bullish sentiment remains strong, but traders should watch for potential profit-taking once the RSI crosses into overbought territory.

In terms of support levels, Nvidia has established key zones at $180, $174.50, and $168. A break below these levels could trigger sell liquidations and increased downside pressure. Conversely, as long as the stock holds above $180, the current trend remains bullishly intact, though volatility is expected to stay elevated.

Nvidia & Microsoft investment implications

The AI market’s next two years will likely be defined by how fast companies can convert hype into sustained profit growth. Nvidia’s $230 billion single-day gain underscores its dominance in the current cycle, but maintaining that pace requires continuous innovation and client investment.

Microsoft’s diversified model gives it a defensive edge - less volatility, more predictable cash flow - making it a potential co-leader in the long-term AI economy.

For investors, 2026 may mark the first true test of AI’s market maturity: whether hardware-driven earnings (Nvidia) or ecosystem-based monetisation (Microsoft) delivers the stronger foundation for the next decade of growth.

According to analysts, WTI crude could slide toward $55 per barrel as hedge funds pile into record short positions and oversupply fears dominate the market. Short calls on Brent surged by 40,233 contracts in the week ending 21 October, bringing total bearish positions to 197,868 - the most on record. 

This marks the third consecutive weekly increase and a doubling of short exposure in just three months. Institutional traders are signalling a clear message: supply is rising faster than demand, OPEC+ is pumping more barrels, and global demand remains too weak to absorb the excess.

Still, with fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production politics adding new variables, short-covering rallies back toward $65 per barrel remain possible. The battle between macro fundamentals and geopolitical risk continues to define oil’s volatile range.

Key takeaways

• Record hedge-fund shorts: Brent and WTI short positions have doubled since July, signalling broad institutional pessimism.
  
• Short-term volatility: U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent +10% in a week, but analysts expect the effect to fade.
  
• Bearish fundamentals: Rising OPEC output, record U.S. supply, and weak demand point to continued downside pressure.
  
• Structural shift: U.S. shale costs are climbing, setting the stage for longer-term tightening once oversupply eases.
  
• Price risk: If oversupply persists, WTI could test $55, though a short-covering rally toward $65 remains possible.
  

Hedge fund oil trading takes control of the narrative

Speculative funds are now at their most bearish on record. In the week ending 21 October, short positions in Brent futures surged by over 40,000 contracts, marking the third consecutive weekly increase. This sharp rise suggests confidence that near-term fundamentals - particularly oversupply and weak demand - will push prices lower.

By comparison, short-only positions stood at just 26,000 contracts a year ago. The current build-up mirrors the mid-2018 and 2020 oil corrections, when rising inventories and a strong U.S. dollar fuelled steep sell-offs.

OPEC oil production increases are overwhelming the market

Oil prices rallied nearly 8% last week after the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, but quickly lost steam as OPEC signalled more output ahead. Eight member states are backing another production hike in November, roughly 137,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia leads an effort to reclaim market share.

This deliberate oversupply strategy aims to undercut higher-cost U.S. producers while keeping a lid on global prices. With both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada expanding supply, the market remains saturated despite geopolitical tension.

Demand weakness compounds the pressure

Analysts from Standard Chartered cut their 2026–2027 oil price forecasts by $15 per barrel, citing a shift to contango - where futures prices exceed spot prices, signalling near-term softness.

Global demand growth has slowed as trade frictions and tariff uncertainty weigh on consumption. The International Energy Agency and S&P Global both expect oil to dip below $60 early next year as oversupply persists.

Even with record refining runs, estimated above 85 million bpd, the market may not be able to absorb the extra barrels.

Geopolitical shocks can still spark short-covering rallies

The short trade is not risk-free. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russia drove a brief 10% rally, showing how exposed shorts are to policy moves.

If tensions in Ukraine, Iran, or China–U.S. trade talks escalate, supply disruptions could trigger a short-covering surge, temporarily driving WTI back above $65.

Still, analysts expect such rallies to fade quickly as long as U.S. production remains strong and OPEC continues to loosen output controls.

The structural story: rising shale costs and long-term tightness

While the near-term trend is bearish, the cost base of U.S. shale is climbing. Enverus analysts project that marginal production costs could rise from $70 to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s as producers exhaust their most efficient wells. 

This implies that if prices fall too far, supply could contract sharply, setting the stage for future tightness once demand stabilises.

WTI crude oil price prediction: Market impact and price scenarios

If current dynamics persist, analysts see Brent testing $60 and WTI near $55 by early 2026. However, a shift in positioning - such as hedge-fund short-covering or renewed sanctions risk - could trigger rebounds toward $65–$70. For now, the balance of risk remains skewed lower as supply continues to exceed demand. 

Commodities traders tracking these scenarios often rely on Deriv’s trading calculator to manage position sizes and evaluate exposure in volatile markets.

Oil price technical insights

Oil is hovering near the upper Bollinger Band on Deriv MT5 following a rebound from recent lows - signalling fading bearish momentum and a potential short-term continuation higher. 

The RSI is climbing slowly around the midline, suggesting improving buying pressure but no overbought conditions yet. Key resistance levels sit at 62.35 and 65.00, where profit-taking could emerge. On the downside, 56.85 remains a crucial support - a break below it may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Oil Price investment implications

The current setup suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for traders and portfolio managers. If volatility spikes, short-term strategies may favour tactical buying near support levels around $61–$62. However, medium-term positioning should reflect the bearish demand outlook and the likelihood of prolonged oversupply. 

Energy equities with low-cost production and strong balance sheets - particularly U.S. shale and Middle Eastern producers - could outperform, while high-cost offshore and frontier projects may struggle. Refiners, meanwhile, stand to benefit from strong margins even in a lower-price environment.

Eurozone business activity surged to a 17-month high in October, led by Germany’s strongest private-sector expansion in over two years, while inflation stayed near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. With the ECB pausing rate cuts and the Federal Reserve preparing to ease, traders see scope for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.20 in the short term.

However, the rally faces limits: France’s weakness, sliding business confidence, and uneven growth across the bloc suggest the recovery may not last long enough to sustain a breakout.

Key takeaways

• The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Flash Eurozone Composite,  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 52.2 in October, its 10th straight month of expansion and the highest since mid-2024, defying expectations of a slowdown.
  
• Germany’s services-led rebound powered the region’s growth, while France contracted faster than forecast, creating a two-speed recovery.
  
• Inflation pressures remain moderate, with services prices rising slightly but staying near the ECB’s long-term average.
  
• The ECB is expected to hold rates, contrasting with the Fed’s upcoming 25 bps cut, which could weaken the dollar.
  
• Despite strong data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, hinting that firms remain cautious about future demand.
  
• EUR/USD trades near 1.1650, supported by monetary divergence but capped by fragile sentiment and uneven growth.
  

Eurozone PMI data: Economic activity hits a 17-month high

The Eurozone economy accelerated unexpectedly at the start of Q4. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, far above the consensus estimate of 51.0. Readings above 50 indicate growth, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New orders grew at their fastest pace in 2½ years, suggesting renewed business momentum. 

"October’s flash PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy may have gained momentum at the start of the quarter."

- Adrian Prettejohn, Capital Economics

Germany was the standout performer. Its private sector recorded its strongest growth since early 2023, driven by a robust rise in services activity. This boosted the euro in currency markets and revived optimism that Europe’s largest economy could anchor a broader recovery.

France, however, painted a different picture. Its PMI fell deeper into contraction as demand for goods and services weakened amid political tensions and fiscal uncertainty. 

For traders analysing these developments on Deriv MT5, the PMI figures serve as a clear indicator of economic momentum likely to influence the EUR/USD trend through Q4.

ECB interest rate decision: Holding the line as inflation steadies

Inflation in the services sector remains moderate, with price increases near the ECB’s long-term average. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said the data “confirms the ECB’s stance not to implement further interest rate cuts.”

The central bank is widely seen as ending its easing cycle, with inflation hovering around 2%. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps this week, following a softer-than-expected September CPI of 3.% year-on-year. Core CPI slowed to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, reinforcing bets on a dovish shift.

This policy divergence - ECB steady, Fed easing - creates favourable conditions for the euro, especially as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, its lowest in months.

Confidence falls despite the rebound

While headline data impressed, underlying sentiment weakened.

• Business confidence slipped to a five-month low, showing that firms remain cautious about demand.
  
• Employment rose again in October, with services hiring at the fastest pace since June 2024.
  
• Manufacturing employment, however, fell at the quickest pace in four months, underscoring uneven demand across sectors.
  

Operating costs increased at a slower pace, yet selling prices ticked higher, suggesting mild inflationary pressure but no signs of overheating. This dynamic - rising activity, but subdued confidence - suggests the current rebound could lose momentum if new-order growth cools.

U.S. factors: Fed cuts and dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 99.00 after the soft CPI print, reflecting investor expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The Fed’s easing bias contrasts sharply with the ECB’s pause, reducing yield spreads in favour of the euro.

Geopolitical developments add another tailwind:

• U.S.–China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur have eased tariff concerns, with Washington dropping threats of 100% import duties.
  
• China’s delay of its rare-earth export restrictions and expected purchases of U.S. soybeans have improved global risk sentiment.
  

These factors have helped push EUR/USD higher for four consecutive sessions, now trading near 1.1630.

EUR/USD market outlook: 1.20 or fade?

Bullish case:

• Strong German services growth and 17-month-high PMIs signal a broader recovery.
  
• ECB’s rate stability supports euro yields versus a softening dollar.
  
• U.S. disinflation and dovish Fed policy narrow the transatlantic rate gap.
  
• Positive sentiment from trade diplomacy may lift risk assets, supporting the euro.
  

Bearish case:

• France’s weakness and Europe’s political instability could undermine confidence.
  
• A fragile manufacturing sector and slower new orders may limit follow-through.
  
• If U.S. data rebounds or the Fed signals caution on further cuts, dollar strength could return.
  

Most analysts see EUR/USD supported above 1.16, with 1.18–1.20 as near-term resistance. Sustained momentum above 1.20 will likely require a continuation of German outperformance and further confirmation that Eurozone growth is broad-based.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.1870 resistance and 1.1566 support, with price hovering near the mid-Bollinger band and the RSI flat around 58, signalling neutral momentum. 

The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate fading volatility and the potential for a breakout. A move above 1.1728 could invite renewed buying toward 1.1870, while a drop below 1.1566 may trigger further selling. Until then, the pair is likely to trade sideways, with traders watching for an RSI breakout or band expansion as the next directional cue.

EUR/USD investment implications

For traders and investors, the balance of risk in EUR/USD tilts upward in the short term but remains fragile.

• Short-term strategies: Buying dips near 1.1600 may offer upside toward 1.1850–1.20 if Fed dovishness persists and Eurozone data confirms sustained momentum.
  
• Medium-term positioning: Caution is warranted; if business sentiment fails to recover or German strength fades, EUR/USD could retreat toward 1.1550.
  
• Macro context: The ECB’s steady policy and Germany’s rebound contrast with the Fed’s softening stance - creating a favourable environment for euro resilience into Q4.
  
• Political watchpoints: France’s budget tensions and any disruption in U.S.–China trade progress could quickly dampen euro optimism.

Using Deriv’s trading calculator before entering positions helps estimate margin and pip values, a crucial step when managing risk around volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD.

Analysts say Japan’s economy can sustain its current momentum under prolonged dovish policy - but not indefinitely. Growth remains steady, inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and exports are finally recovering. 

Yet, the BoJ’s slow path toward tightening and a new government’s focus on fiscal stimulus are testing how much patience markets can bear. With the USD/JPY pair holding near 152, traders are weighing whether Japan’s strong fundamentals can coexist with a weak currency, or if policy divergence with the U.S. will soon push the pair toward 160.

Key takeaways

• Japan’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to ¥234.6 billion in September from ¥242.8 billion in August, suggesting export momentum but missing forecasts for a surplus.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% YoY, the first increase since April, while imports surged 3.3%, their first gain in three months.
  
• A Reuters poll found 96% of economists expect BoJ rates to reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 60% predicting a 25 bps hike this quarter.
  
• Sanae Takaichi’s election as Japan’s first female Prime Minister spurred equity gains and Yen weakness as markets priced in more fiscal stimulus and delayed BoJ tightening.
  
• The USD/JPY pair hovers near 152, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and broad uncertainty over Japan’s policy direction.
  

Japan fiscal stimulus optimism vs. fiscal constraints

The election of Sanae Takaichi marks a historic milestone - Japan’s first female Prime Minister - and a clear policy inflection point. Takaichi’s platform emphasises economic revitalisation, defence investment, and stronger U.S. relations, signalling a government ready to spend.

Her coalition, formed with the Japan Innovation Party, promised fiscal stimulus to drive growth - echoing elements of Abenomics. 

The Japan 225 has rallied nearly 13% since early October, briefly nearing the 50,000 level before profit-taking set in. 

Yet, optimism about stimulus-led growth has simultaneously pressured the Yen, with traders anticipating a delay in BoJ normalisation. Still, Takaichi’s administration faces constraints. 

The coalition’s 231 seats in the lower house fall short of the 233 needed for a majority, forcing her to rely on opposition support to pass legislation. This weak parliamentary position limits the scale of fiscal expansion and injects political uncertainty into Japan’s economic outlook.

Bank of Japan interest rates: Resilience defies policy inertia

Japan’s macro picture has turned unexpectedly robust.

• The trade deficit narrowed for a second month, driven by improved export performance and moderating import costs.
  
• Exports rose 4.2% year-on-year, marking their first increase since April, supported by demand from Asia and Europe.
  
• Imports jumped 3.3%, their strongest gain in eight months, reflecting solid domestic consumption and higher energy costs.
  

Meanwhile, Japan’s GDP has expanded for five straight quarters, confirming a durable recovery from 2023’s stagnation. 

Inflation remains above 2%, supported by rising wages and service-sector demand. These conditions would trigger tightening in any other major economy.

Yet, despite these fundamentals, the BoJ remains the only major central bank still below 1% policy rates. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has reaffirmed that future hikes will depend on “sustainable inflation trends,” while Board Member Hajime Takata stated that Japan has “roughly achieved” its price target - signalling cautious optimism but not urgency.

This mismatch between strong economic data and hesitant policy is keeping the Yen under pressure, as investors look elsewhere for yield.

BoJ’s policy rate: The slow road to 0.75%

The market expects change - just not quickly. According to a Reuters survey, 64 of 67 economists (96%) forecast the BoJ’s policy rate will reach 0.75% by March 2026, with 45 of 75 respondents (60%) expecting a 25 bps rate hike this quarter.

That timeline underscores just how gradual BoJ normalisation will be. The BoJ’s strategy hinges on ensuring wage gains are durable and not merely the result of cost-push inflation. But the risk is that patience turns into policy inertia, leaving the Yen vulnerable to capital outflows if other central banks ease faster.

Across the Pacific: Fed cuts, fiscal chaos, and Dollar fatigue

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.96, sliding after a brief recovery. A looming U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has frozen key data releases and clouded Fed visibility. The Senate has failed 11 times to pass a funding bill, making it the third-longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in a 96.7% chance of a rate cut in October and a 96.5% chance of another in December.

Fed officials are leaning dovish:

• Christopher Waller supports another immediate cut,
  
• Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive 2025 easing path, and
  
• Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is “on track” for another quarter-point reduction.
  

With the U.S. economy slowing, the rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is narrowing, making the Dollar less dominant. A faster Fed pivot could therefore cap USD/JPY upside, even without BoJ intervention.

USD JPY technical insight: Between fiscal hope and policy drag

The appointment of Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama - known for favouring a stronger Yen and calling 120–130 per USD “fundamentally justified” - has introduced a more balanced tone. However, broader market positioning still leans toward Yen weakness.

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the new government’s business-friendly orientation is unlikely to support long-term depreciation, projecting sideways USD/JPY movement as Japan’s fiscal push and BoJ patience offset one another.

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Yen strengthened slightly midweek following the trade data release. The USD/JPY pair pulled back modestly but remains near 151.84. A bullish move is likely to meet resistance at the 153.05 price level, with RSI showing strengthening buy momentum. Conversely, if sellers prevail, they are likely to find support at the 150.25 and 146.70 price levels.

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Traders can track these levels in real time using Deriv MT5 and may consider placing stop-loss orders near the 150.25 support zone to manage risk in this volatile pair. Using Deriv’s economic calendar helps anticipate BoJ or Fed announcements that typically move the Yen.

Market impact and trading implications

For traders, USD/JPY presents a rare balance of risk and reward.

• Upside case: If BoJ delays tightening while the Fed stays cautious, USD/JPY could retest 158–160, testing market tolerance for Yen weakness.
  
• Downside case: If the Fed cuts twice and BoJ delivers even a modest hike, the pair could retrace to 145–147, unwinding part of 2024’s rally.
  

The carry trade remains a major driver of Yen sentiment. As global investors continue borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yield positions in other currencies, Japan’s low interest rates sustain the JPY’s role as a global funding currency. Any shift in BoJ policy or sudden increase in market volatility could force carry-trade unwinding, triggering rapid Yen appreciation.

The near-term tone remains range-bound, but volatility risk is high as politics and policy pull in opposite directions. Equity traders may find support in Japan’s stimulus agenda, while currency traders should prepare for potential BoJ recalibration before mid-2026.

Ultimately, Japan’s strong economy is proving resilient - but its currency may not stay patient forever. The question for 2025 is no longer whether Japan can grow, but how much dovishness its strength can bear before markets force the BoJ’s hand.

Analysts say Apple stock’s record high marks the beginning of a new AI-driven growth cycle rather than the end of one. With shares up 55% since April and $1.4 trillion added in market value, Apple’s resurgence is underpinned by solid fundamentals: accelerating iPhone 17 demand, a robust multi-year upgrade cycle, and steady progress in integrating artificial intelligence into its product ecosystem. 

The evidence suggests this rally isn’t mere euphoria but part of a structural revaluation of Apple’s role in the emerging AI economy - though short-term technical indicators hint at a cooling period before the next leg higher.

Key takeaways

• $1.4 trillion rebound since April, fuelled by AI optimism and iPhone 17 sales.
  
• Loop Capital upgrade to Buy with a street-high $315 target (+25% upside).
  
• RSI nearing overbought territory, signalling potential near-term consolidation.
  
• AI-linked crypto assets such as FET, and AGIX, show correlated volume spikes with Apple’s rally.
  
• Institutional rotation into AI-focused equities and digital assets underscores a broader risk-on shift.
  

Apple’s market cap: The $1.4 trillion rally 

Apple’s 2025 surge has been exceptional. Since April, the company has added $1.4 trillion in market value, reaching a fresh all-time high and reclaiming its position as one of the world’s most influential stocks. The latest leg up followed Loop Capital’s upgrade from Hold to Buy, with analysts lifting their price target from $226 to $315 - the highest on Wall Street.

Loop cited strong iPhone 17 sales, with 56.5 million shipments in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The firm also projects three consecutive record iPhone shipment years from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing the idea that Apple is at the front end of a long-anticipated upgrade and adoption cycle powered by AI-enhanced design and performance.

Apple’s AI technology as a catalyst 

Apple’s rally aligns with a wider surge in AI-driven market confidence. Analysts view Apple’s ecosystem as a critical bridge between consumers and AI-powered devices - from its upcoming “AI Phone” to new on-device machine learning tools integrated into iOS.

The company’s market cap has now climbed to $3.89 trillion, overtaking Microsoft to become the second-most valuable firm globally, behind Nvidia. Institutional investors see Apple’s expansion into AI as a signal that the technology is moving from hype to mainstream adoption - especially in hardware and consumer interfaces.

Apple stock technical analysis

Technically, Apple’s RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation. Support remains firm near the April low, while resistance sits around the $315 price target.

At the time of writing, Apple stock is in price discovery mode with bullish momentum evident on the daily chart. The bullish narrative is also supported by RSI towering above the midline near 60. However, a wick is forming at the top of the latest candle, suggesting some sell pressure is emerging. If sellers assert themselves further, prices could find support levels near $244.15, with additional support around $225.20 and $201.80.

Traders using Deriv Trader can monitor such levels with built-in tools for technical analysis or cross-check potential profit and loss outcomes using Deriv’s trading calculators.

Trading Apple’s AI Momentum on Deriv Platforms

For traders looking to capitalise on Apple’s AI momentum, Deriv’s MT5 platform provides flexible access to both short-term and long-term strategies.

• Momentum trading: The MACD and RSI indicators on Deriv MT5 help confirm bullish continuation patterns. When RSI holds above 50 and price remains above the 20-day EMA, traders can consider long entries with stop-loss levels below key supports.
  
• Range trading: If Apple consolidates between $244 and $315, short-term traders can look for price bounces off support zones. Deriv Trader offers simplified contract types that allow traders to benefit from both rising and falling prices within defined ranges.
  
• Position management: Deriv’s trading calculators evaluate margin requirements, potential profits, and pip value before executing trades.
  

Cross-market ripple: stocks and crypto

Apple’s AI surge could influence other markets. Traders have observed rising activity in AI-related crypto pairs such as FET/USDT, which often track similar AI sentiment patterns.

This growing correlation suggests Apple’s performance is becoming a barometer for the broader AI trade. Volume spikes in AAPL and AI tokens often occur in tandem, reflecting cross-market optimism around the AI theme. For active traders, Apple’s RSI cycles may even serve as an early signal for moves in decentralised AI assets.

Institutional confidence and capital rotation

Apple’s $1.4 trillion rebound is more than a valuation story - it’s a symbol of institutional conviction in AI’s long-term profitability. Fund managers are reallocating capital from defensive sectors into high-growth AI opportunities, both in equities and digital assets.

That momentum extends to crypto ETFs and large-cap tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to analysts, where inflows often mirror shifts in tech equity sentiment. The result is a cross-asset “risk-on” trend - with Apple’s performance acting as the trigger for renewed optimism in both traditional and decentralised markets.

Investment implications

For investors, Apple’s record high reinforces its role as a cornerstone of the AI economy. Equity traders may seek entry points near consolidation zones, while crypto participants can use Apple’s price action as a sentiment indicator for AI-linked digital assets.

Whether Apple breaks through $315 or pauses for a reset, its rally symbolises the market’s growing conviction in AI as the next structural growth engine - uniting Wall Street and Web3 under one accelerating trend: the race to own the future of intelligence.

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in five months, and the balance of data as well as analysts, suggest that a meaningful rebound toward $65.00 per barrel is unlikely unless global demand recovers. Despite renewed political efforts to restrict Russian crude flows and strengthen sanctions, oversupply and soft consumption are driving a supply-heavy market. WTI crude currently trades near $58.00, while Brent sits around $62.00 - both struggling to find upward momentum as inventories swell and traders brace for weaker growth.

Key takeaways

• WTI trades near $58.00–$59.00 and Brent at $62.00, both at five-month lows.
  
• India’s pledge to halt Russian crude imports and U.S. pressure on China may tighten supply marginally.
  
• The U.K. sanctions new Russian oil assets and tankers, adding friction to global trade.
  
• OPEC+ output is rising as members unwind cuts, while U.S. shale continues record production.
  
• IEA forecasts a 3 million bpd surplus by 2026, the largest since 2020.
  
• Bank of America sees Brent averaging $64.00 in Q4 2025 and $56.00 in 2026, implying limited recovery potential.
  
• Technical support for WTI lies near $58.25, with resistance at $65.61–$70.00
  

Political pressure meets market inertia

After weeks of steady declines, oil prices saw a short-lived rebound in early Asian trading, supported by fresh geopolitical headlines. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports, marking a symbolic win in Washington’s campaign to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Trump added that he would next seek to pressure China to reduce its imports - a move that, if successful, could restrict the flow of discounted Russian crude that has cushioned global supply.

Meanwhile, the U.K. unveiled new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 “shadow fleet” tankers suspected of helping Moscow evade G7 price caps. The measures include asset freezes, director bans, and restrictions on British services, making it more difficult for Russia to move crude via alternative shipping networks.

Despite these political developments, the market reaction has been modest. Traders remain sceptical that diplomacy alone can offset the mounting evidence of a supply glut. According to API data, U.S. inventories rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending 10 October, while gasoline inventories increased by nearly 3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel, fell by 4.79 million barrels, hinting at steady consumption in transport fuels but not enough to shift the broader trend.

OPEC+ production increases are overwhelming the market

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 and 2026 oil supply forecasts higher, reflecting a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and robust growth from non-OPEC producers. Global supply is now expected to grow by 3 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, driven by two key forces:

1. OPEC+ expansion: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have boosted output, collectively adding close to 400,000 barrels per day since September as they unwind earlier cuts.
   
   
2. Non-OPEC surge: The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue to scale production, with U.S. output at a record 13.58 million bpd. This record level has been achieved despite a significant reduction in active rigs, thanks to shale efficiency gains, longer laterals, and the completion of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.
   

This aggressive production pace is pushing the market toward what the IEA calls a “persistent surplus.” Global inventories climbed to 7.9 billion barrels in August - the highest since 2021 - and the volume of “oil on water” surged by 102 million barrels in September as exports from the Middle East and the Americas grew.

The IEA says global oil demand growth is slowing

On the demand side, the IEA expects a much slower recovery. It forecasts oil demand growth of just 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both about 20,000 bpd lower than its previous outlook. That’s less than half the growth rate projected by OPEC, which expects +1.29 million bpd next year.

The weakness is concentrated in major economies, where consumer confidence remains low, inflation has eroded spending power, and industrial output is softening. In China, deflationary pressures and a protracted property market slump continue to weigh on energy consumption. The renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including higher tariffs and port fees, risk further depressing manufacturing activity and freight demand.

The IEA’s conservative stance contrasts sharply with OPEC’s optimism. While OPEC sees emerging markets sustaining transport fuel demand, the IEA expects the shift toward renewables and efficiency improvements to slow overall consumption. As a result, the agency’s models now project a significant surplus by mid-decade unless supply curbs intensify.

OPEC oil production forecast: The 2026 glut warning

The IEA’s October Oil Market Report warned that global oil supply could exceed demand by almost 4 million bpd in 2026 - a glut larger than the pandemic-era oversupply that sent prices below $40.00 in 2020. That scenario is underpinned by continued OPEC+ expansion, strong non-OPEC output, and sluggish industrial recovery in key markets.

Brent’s recent drop below $66.00 and WTI’s slide to $58.00 reflect investor concern that the market may not absorb the rising supply even with record refining runs. Refineries are processing around 85.6 million bpd, but most analysts agree that this level of throughput is unsustainable if global inventories continue to rise.

If the projected surplus materialises, Brent could test the $50.00–$55.00 range, while WTI may stabilise around $55–$60 unless production slows or demand surprises on the upside.

Geopolitical factors could slow the fall

Political risk remains a key variable that could temporarily support prices. Sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to constrain output from two of the world’s largest exporters. China’s strategic stockpiling of crude for energy security has also absorbed surplus barrels earlier this year, softening the downside momentum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s diplomatic campaign to pressure India, China, and Japan to reduce Russian imports could, over time, tighten the market if those commitments translate into actual trade restrictions.

However, the market has seen similar announcements before, and traders are waiting for tangible evidence of supply tightening. Bank of America expects short-term volatility around these developments but maintains a base case for Brent at sub $50 if Chinese demand continues to soften or if Washington escalates its tariffs on Beijing.

Oil price technical insight

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is testing a significant support level around $58.25. A sustained move below this threshold could open the path toward $55.00–$57.00, while a rebound could target $65.61 and then $70.00, provided that buy-side momentum returns. Current trading volumes suggest that sellers still dominate, but if geopolitical headlines trigger renewed buying, short-term recoveries remain possible. 

The potential rebound narrative is supported by prices touching the lower Bollinger band - hinting at oversold conditions. RSI pointing up towards the midline also suggests building buy momentum.

Trading oil price volatility with Deriv

Oil price swings create opportunities for traders seeking to capture short-term volatility or hedge longer-term exposure. On Deriv MT5, you can trade WTI and Brent CFDs with access to advanced charting tools, flexible leverage, and custom indicators to track price momentum and support/resistance levels.

During periods of heightened uncertainty - such as rising OPEC+ supply or U.S. inventory surges - traders can manage exposure with stop-loss and take-profit features available on Deriv MT5. To plan positions more precisely, use Deriv’s trading calculator to estimate margin, pip value, and potential returns before entering the market.

For more insights on commodities like oil, explore our commodity trading guide. 

Investment implications

The market suggests heightened downside risk over the medium term for investors. If political headlines or new sanctions trigger brief rallies, short-term tactical buying near $61.00- $62.00 support may offer opportunities. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, with prices likely capped below $70.00–$75.00

Low-cost producers and U.S. shale operators are positioned to withstand lower prices thanks to efficiency gains, while offshore and high-cost projects may face margin compression. Refining companies could remain relatively insulated, benefiting from cheaper feedstock and strong throughput volumes, even in a lower price environment.

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黄金与美国国债收益率长期以来的反向关系在2025年实际上已经瓦解。这一贵金属价格已飙升至每盎司4,000美元以上，即使国债收益率趋于稳定且美元走弱。这种背离反映出全球风险情绪的深层转变：投资者不再将美国国债视为可靠的对冲工具。相反，在债务担忧、通胀风险和财政不确定性扰动市场的背景下，黄金已成为首选的避险资产。

要点总结

• 2025年约有9.2万亿美元的美国可流通债务到期，迫使财政部在需求疲软的情况下再融资创纪录的债券规模。
  
• 联邦赤字预计将达到1.9万亿美元，加剧了对债务不可持续和财政自满的担忧。
  
• 持续的通胀和关税相关冲击推高了长期债券的期限溢价，使国债表现得更像风险资产。
  
• 即使收益率保持高位，美元也出现下跌，反映出市场对政府财政状况信心的减弱。
  
• 截至今年，黄金已上涨52%，突破4,000美元，因央行和投资者从债券转向实物资产。
  

国债收益率市场承压

美国国债市场经历了数十年来最艰难的一年之一。到期债务激增——约9.2万亿美元，其中大部分集中在上半年——迫使政府以极快速度发行新证券。投资者需求难以跟上，导致市场普遍抛售，收益率上升，尤其是长期债券。

与此同时，财政赤字膨胀至1.9万亿美元，加剧了政府支出上升将恶化长期债务可持续性的担忧。投资者要求更高的收益率以持有美国债务，实际上将国债重新定价为更具风险的资产，而非防御性资产。

技术和政策冲击——包括美国贸易政策的变化和关税调整——进一步加剧了局势，扭曲了定价并推高了期限溢价。供应过剩、通胀焦虑和财政担忧的组合，使国债自2020年以来波动性达到新高。

黄金作为避险资产填补空白

通常，国债抛售会推高美元并打压黄金。但2025年颠覆了这一模式。美元与国债一同下跌，暴露出对美国财政信誉的信心危机。这为黄金取代国债的防御角色打开了大门。

投资者、基金经理和央行加速购买实物黄金和ETF，将黄金视为在政府支持的债务显得脆弱的环境下更可靠的价值储存手段。 

结果是黄金历史性地突破每盎司4,000美元，创下近五十年来的最佳表现。

黄金 vs 美国国债收益率——2025年表现对比

来源：World Gold Council（2025年中期展望）、Reuters（2025年10月8日）、YCharts美国10年期国债收益率系列。

数据强调了黄金与收益率如今同步波动。黄金42%的涨幅与4.1%左右的稳定收益率并行，证实了传统的反向相关性（即黄金上涨、收益率下跌）已经崩溃。现在，这两类资产都在对财政不确定性和投资者对政策稳定性的信任缺失做出反应。

黄金-国债相关性瓦解的后果

黄金-国债对冲关系的瓦解使市场更加波动且难以预测。收益率持续高企，而股票在跨资产相关性失效的情况下难以企稳。美元走弱加剧了通胀担忧，形成反馈循环，进一步支撑了黄金需求。

不过，一些分析师认为2025年晚些时候可能出现逆转。如果经济放缓且Federal Reserve降息，收益率可能下跌，部分恢复旧有的反向关系。但目前，黄金与国债同步波动——这表明经典对冲结构性基础已经出现裂痕。

2025–2026年黄金价格展望

分析师们对未来走势仍有分歧。Goldman Sachs预计，如果财政风险持续，黄金可能维持在接近历史高位，而部分策略师认为潜在衰退带来的低收益率可能在年内缓解债券压力。

然而，根本问题——高债务发行、持续通胀以及对美国财政管理信心减弱——指向长期再平衡。国债不再被视为纯粹的避险资产，而是风险环境的一部分。与此同时，黄金已成为不确定时期稳定的锚。

黄金价格技术分析

撰写本文时，日线图上买盘压力强劲。然而，价格接近上升通道上轨，可能暗示有望回调至3,850美元的通道下限。RSI深处超买区间也支持回调观点。另一方面，MACD显示出强劲的多头动能。  若价格果断突破当前水平，买家有望将目标上移至4,100美元。 

黄金投资影响

对于交易者和资产管理人来说，2025年的市场格局预示着新的对冲现实。
短期内，黄金有望在4,000美元上方盘整，受央行持续需求和避险资金流支撑。如果衰退引发降息，债券价格可能回升——但黄金仍将作为对政策和信用风险的战略防护工具保持吸引力。

中期配置应倾向于在Deriv MT5上多元化持有黄金，交易者可利用倍数工具在波动市况下管理杠杆。同时，使用Deriv的交易计算器等工具，有助于在黄金波动性上升时保持风险管理的纪律性。

Deriv平台黄金交易策略

Deriv的交易者可通过多种平台进入黄金市场，满足不同交易风格和目标。

我们的平台提供现货黄金（XAU/USD）交易，点差低至0.3点，流动性充足，杠杆最高可达1:1000，具体取决于账户类型和监管地区。平台支持多种订单类型、先进图表工具和集成技术指标，便于技术分析。

希望以可控风险参与黄金价格波动的交易者可使用Deriv Multipliers，该产品允许以固定最大亏损进行杠杆交易，使客户无需传统保证金要求即可参与短线黄金波动。

为协助交易准备和持仓监控，Deriv的交易计算器帮助用户计算黄金及其他品种的合约规模、保证金要求和点值。所有平台还提供止损和止盈功能，便于精确管理订单和资金分配。

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是的——分析师表示，日本的扩张性财政立场和超低利率可能会重振全球套利交易。随着日元跌至七个月低点，美元/日元跌至七个月低点 爆发 在151以上，交易者再次借入日元来追逐更高的收益率 资产。随着市场将155作为下一个里程碑，东京现在面临着越来越大的捍卫其货币的压力。除非日本银行（BoJ）转向更紧缩的政策或直接进行干预，否则日元融资的交易可能会在2025年之前继续推动全球风险偏好。

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关键要点

• 由于日元再次疲软和全球风险偏好情绪，美元/日元触及151.00上方的七个月高点。
  
  
• 高市早苗的支持刺激政策提高了人们对大规模财政支出的预期，推迟了日本央行的紧缩政策。
  
  
• 随着投资者廉价地借入日元投资国外高收益资产，套利交易活动再起。
  
  
• 东京警告说，波动性过大，但市场仍在测试日本的干预门槛。
  
  
• 除非日本央行大幅调整或政府协调干预，否则美元/日元可能会跌破155。
  
  

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日本2025年财政刺激措施和日元的下滑

日本的政治转变正在给日元带来新的下行压力。在高市早苗当选自民党（LDP）新领导人之后，投资者预计她的政府将增加公共支出以支持增长。

尽管该战略可以刺激经济，但它引发了财政可持续性的担忧，并使日本央行的通胀控制工作复杂化。日本8月份的通货膨胀率为2.7％，仍高于2％的目标，这表明应保持紧缩政策。

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日本的通货膨胀率

然而，预期正朝着相反的方向发展：现在，市场认为日本央行在10月30日之前加息的可能性只有26％，低于高市获胜前的60％。

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日本银行利率

这种前景的转变降低了以日元计价的投资的吸引力，并推动了资本流向高收益市场，加速了日元的下跌。

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随着高市冲击市场，日元交易成为焦点

套利交易再次成为市场关注的焦点。由于日本的利率接近零，交易者正在借入日元购买收益率较高的经济体的资产，例如美国或澳大利亚。

当全球化时，这种策略就会蓬勃发展 风险 胃口很高，2025年股市的上涨提供了完美的背景。纳斯达克、标准普尔500指数和日本日经225指数最近均创下历史新高，反映了投资者的广泛信心。同样的乐观情绪削弱了日元的避险需求，强化了其作为世界首选融资货币的作用。

这种动态反映了2000年代中期套利贸易的繁荣，当时日元疲软推动了全球的投机性投资——直到日本央行的政策突然转变扭转了这一趋势。但是，就目前而言，日本的鸽派货币立场和财政扩张使该战略得以延续。

交易洞察：当波动率低且利差较大时，套利交易是有利可图的，但是当市场情绪发生变化时，套利交易可能会急剧平息。要了解有关在动荡市场中交易的更多信息，请访问我们的 市场波动指南。

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东京的困境：干预还是容忍下滑

日本财务省陷入了熟悉的困境。美元/日元目前高于151，交易者正在关注政府干预的迹象——历史上是在汇价接近150—152时触发的。

财政大臣加藤胜信重申日本准备应对 “过度波动”，但市场仍然持怀疑态度。除非得到货币政策调整的支持，否则干预措施既昂贵又短暂。由于高市政府倾向于财政扩张，仅靠口头警告不太可能阻止日元抛售。

这给东京留下了两种选择：直接干预，冒着有限的成功风险，或者等待并希望市场稳定——这是一种冒险的选择，因为投机性头寸严重偏向美元/日元多头。

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美国因素：尽管有不利因素，美元仍保持弹性

即使面临国内挑战，美元仍然坚挺。尽管政府持续关闭，而且预计 美联储 降息——市场认为10月份降息25个基点的可能性为95％，12月降息的概率为84％——美元继续受益于避险需求。

DXY指数保持在98以上，这反映了市场的观点，即美国资产仍然比日本更稳定。

结果：即使是疲软的美元兑日元也显得强劲，这使美元/日元保持良好的支撑。

直到 美联储 加速宽松政策或日本央行收紧政策，两个经济体之间的收益率差距将继续巩固日元的疲软。

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什么能改变这种趋势？

有几个触发因素可能会逆转或减缓日元的下跌：

1. 日本央行的政策重点： 鹰派声明或意外加息可能会震惊市场并提振日元。
   
   
2. 协调干预： 财政部和日本央行的联合行动可能会带来更大幅度、更持久的反弹。
   
   
3. 全球避险事件： 股市的重大调整或地缘政治的爆发可能会恢复避险需求。
   
   
4. 美国更快的降息： 鸽派的美联储可能会缩小收益率差异并抑制美元/日元的势头。
   
   

但是，如果没有这些催化剂，日元的疲软似乎将继续下去。

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美元日元技术见解：美元/日元关注155

在撰写本文时，日线图上的买入压力显而易见，该货币对在152.36附近处于价格发现模式。成交量数据显示了买家的主导地位，而卖方尚未表现出足够的信心来挑战这一趋势。

如果抛售压力增加，日元的回升可能会引发向147.10和146.24支撑位的回调。但是，如果看涨势头持续下去，美元/日元可能会将涨势扩大至155，创下2025年的潜在新高。

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技术面要点：趋势仍然看涨，但有所加剧 挥发性 接近干预水平意味着交易者应该管理 职位大小， 保证金使用情况，以及 杠杆作用 小心曝光。

交易者可以使用以下方式监控这些美元/日元水平 派生 MT5 先进的制图工具，用于精确的进入和退出时间。

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日元投资影响

对于交易者而言，政策分歧仍然是推动美元/日元的关键主题。

• 短期策略：只要151保持支撑位，逢低买盘可能保持利好，但交易者应密切关注东京的言论。
  
  
• 中期定位：保持灵活性可能是有利的——干预或政策意外可能会引发急剧逆转。
  
  
• 跨市场影响： 套利交易的回报不仅限于外汇，有可能提振由廉价日元借贷资助的全球股票和债券流动。

我们的外汇 交易计算器 可以帮助确定套利交易策略的最佳头寸规模、保证金要求和潜在回报。

除非日本尽快收紧政策，否则2025年可能标志着全球套利交易的全面回归，以及日元长期疲软。

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黄金接近4,000美元大关， 交易价格约为每盎司3,970美元 -这是历史上的最高水平。今年迄今为止，涨幅超过50％，反映了更深层次的全球趋势：投资者正在从纸币转向有形价值。随着央行的买入、ETF的流入以及明显的去美元化推动，黄金已成为2025年的终极 “信托对冲工具”。

关键要点

• 迄今为止，黄金价格飙升了50％，测试了3,970美元/盎司，这是有史以来最强的收盘价。
• 中央银行的购买量：每月约80吨（世界黄金协会，2025年）。
• ETF 流入：2025 年上半年+200 吨（彭博金融有限责任公司）。
• 美联储降息概率：94.6％（CME FedWatch工具）。
• 瑞银的目标：4,200美元；高盛：到2026年为4,900美元。
• 宏观主题：去美元化和对法定货币的信任度下降。

黄金创纪录的涨势——是什么推动了它

2025年黄金的涨势 始于3月，当时价格突破了3,000美元大关，然后在4月突破了3500美元，到9月突破了3,800美元。每次突破都得到了持续的ETF流入和央行需求的支持，这两者共同构成了结构性购买压力。

彭博社的数据显示，黄金支持的ETF在2025年上半年增长了200吨，这是自2020年以来的最大涨幅。交易员还增加了对SPDR黄金股票ETF的看涨敞口，增强了机构势头。

同时，较低的利率使黄金相对于收益资产更具吸引力。美联储在9月份下调25个基点，以及对10月份再次下调的预期，继续削弱美元，刺激对避险资产的需求。

央行购买黄金：去美元化对黄金的影响

世界黄金协会（WGC）的数据显示，亚洲、中东和拉丁美洲的中央银行正在以创纪录的速度购买黄金——今年平均每月80吨。

高盛预测，央行每月70-80吨的需求将持续到2026年，这表明储备将从美元转移出去的长期再平衡。

黄金占部分中央银行总储备持量的百分比

这种转变是更广泛的去美元化趋势的一部分，因为新兴经济体对冲财政 挥发性 和地缘政治冲击。西方机构投资者纷纷效仿，在全球不确定性中使用黄金作为稳定支柱。

摩根大通指出，在过去几年中，CB并不是唯一增加黄金持有量相对份额的CB。在金融黄金市场上，投资者的期货头寸仍然很长，预计未来价格将上涨。按实际价值计算，COMEX黄金——金属交易的主要期货和期权市场——的非商业期货和期权多头头寸在2024年创下新高。

宏观背景：压力下的信任

9月份的美国政府关闭使官方经济数据暂停，迫使市场依赖私人估计。美国广播公司新闻报道说，这种中断如果持续下去，可能会使第四季度的GDP减少多达2.4个百分点。

在数据封锁期间，美联储面临更高的不确定性，这促使市场偏爱黄金等稳定资产。

在欧洲和亚洲，较高的债券收益率、财政紧张和政治波动进一步强化了人们的说法，即黄金不仅是通胀对冲工具，还是一种信托对冲工具。

4,000 美元是上限还是只是一个检查点？

分析师意见不一。

• 瑞银预计到年底将达到4,200美元。
• 高盛将其2026年的目标上调至4,900美元。

技术数据来自 Deriv MT5 显示出强劲的买入量，尽管短期内有可能在3,970美元至4,000美元附近盘整。如果买家保持该区域，则突破可能会将金价推高至4,200美元以上。支撑位保持稳定，分别为3,630美元和3,310美元。

黄金技术水平（Deriv MT5 日线图）

从恐惧交易到信仰贸易

2025年黄金的飙升不是对恐慌的反应，而是对信心的重新定价。正如一位策略师所说： “这不是危机举动。市场承认纸质承诺有局限性。”

持续的通货膨胀、不断增加的赤字和地缘政治的不稳定削弱了人们对法定体系的信心。黄金已成为金融信誉的新基准，既是避风港，又是战略储备资产。

如何在 Deriv 上交易黄金

第 1 步：选择您的平台

选择适合您交易风格的 Deriv 平台：

• Deriv MT5 — 使用先进的图表和专业分析工具进行基于差价合约的风险敞口。
• 衍生交易者 — 使用简化、直观的界面进行固定时间交易。
• Deriv cTrader — 用于深度流动性、高速执行和专业级订单管理。

第 2 步：选择您的乐器类型

选择与您的交易目标相匹配的产品：

• 差价合约（差价合约）——利用杠杆交易金价上涨或下跌。
• 乘数 — 用较小的资本控制较大的头寸，同时限制下行空间。
• 固定时间合约 — 使用预定义的支付对短期价格走势进行推测。

第 3 步：应用风险管理

在进入交易之前保护您的资本：

• 设置止损和止盈订单。
• 使用 Deriv 根据您的风险承受能力计算头寸规模 交易计算器。
• 在上线之前，在演示模式下练习策略。
  

第 4 步：执行您的交易

准备就绪后，在您选择的Deriv平台上进行黄金交易。监控未平仓头寸，审查利润使用情况，并在价格走势展开时调整订单。

黄金技术见解：黄金走向何方？

高盛预计，到2026年中期，黄金可能达到每盎司4,000美元，到2026年12月可能达到每盎司4,900美元。

另一方面，摩根大通预计，2025年第四季度黄金的平均价格将达到每盎司3675美元，到2026年第二季度将接近4,000美元，这主要是受央行的购买和持续的市场不确定性的推动。值得注意的是，看涨的分析师预测，如果目前的趋势继续下去，到2030年，价格可能会高达每盎司1万美元，尽管这种情况取决于持续的全球经济脆弱性和地缘政治的不稳定性。

一些技术指标表明，黄金处于 “极度超买” 区域，这使得在进一步上涨之前可以进行短期价格修正。关键支撑位目前在3,800美元以上，阻力位在3,900美元和4,000美元左右，如果央行需求放缓或地缘政治紧张局势缓解，则存在下行风险。