Weekly market report – 11 Apr 2022

Forex

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The US dollar index advanced to $100 for the first time in nearly 2 years, reaching as high as $100.19 – its best level since May 2020. 

美元强势的主要推动因素是美联储的鹰派态度。 The Federal Reserve March meeting minutes on Wednesday, 6 April 2022, resulted in an interest rate hike of 25-bps. 但是，纪要显示出对迅速提高利率的强烈支持，支持市场预期美联储将在即将召开的会议上以50个基点的幅度提高利率。

在交易周期间，欧元显著下跌，达到 1.0850 美元水平。 主要原因是欧盟和美国债券市场之间的利率差异，继续对欧元施加下行压力。

然而，该货币对仍然找不到上涨的理由，除了利率差异外，还有许多其他原因使人们认为欧元将会面临挑战。 欧盟几乎肯定将进入衰退，仅能源问题就将导致一系列问题。 Moreover, Germany reduced their economic growth forecast for 2022 from 4.6% to 1.8%, due to geopolitical risks in France with the French presidential election, and the war in Ukraine. 

与此同时，欧洲中央银行行长将在下周面临一次特别具有挑战性的会议，因为她旨在平衡抑制通胀与支持疲软的增长前景之间的关系。 This comes at a time when other major central banks are already tightening monetary policies and are prepared to hike interest rates in ever-increasing increments. 

As shown in the chart as well, EUR/USD had a downward trend for the week touching its lowest point on Friday, 8 April 2022, below the $1.085 mark. 然而，该货币对呈现出小幅上涨，目前在1.0877美元左右，刚好接近其5日移动平均线。

During the early session on Friday, 8 April 2022, GBP/USD hit its lowest level since November 2020 at $1.29820, due to the strengthening of the US dollar. 然而，到交易日结束时，货币对回弹至1.3030美元，周度损失约为0.6%。 本周的价格走势并未受到英国因素的重大影响。 This is because the upside of GBP is currently being limited by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will turn more dovish in its next meeting. 在即将到来的星期，GBP/USD 交易者将关注英国消费者物价指数、美国消费者物价指数和美国生产者物价指数的结果，这些将于本周二和周三发布。

USD/JPY 在上周结束时上涨至 ¥124.34。 强劲的美国数据和日本政府债券的有限上行能力以维护其0.25%的收益率目标帮助该货币对上涨。 将在如何应对即将到来的地缘政治新闻对风险情绪和对避险货币JPY需求的影响上，值得拭目以待。

Commodities

在大部分周内，黄金兑美元未能在任何方向上做出决定性动作。 尽管美元整体走强和美国国债收益率大幅上升，黄金仍能在避险资金流入中保持稳定，最终收于每周范围的上半部，价格高于$1,940。

Furthermore, gold against the Euro rose by nearly 1.65% this week (based on the difference between Monday’s close and Friday’s close), indicating that the metal was able to capture some of the capital flowing out of the Euro as well.

As per the hourly chart for the week above, gold against the US dollar rose in the first 2 days of the week and surpassed the $1,940 mark only to fall towards the end of the second day, below the $1,925 mark and stay around it. As days passed by, we noticed an upward trend for the same and it ended the week at around the $1,947 mark which is above the 5-day moving average of $1,944 that is acting as the current support level for the week. 

This week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. CPI is expected to rise to a new multi-decade high of 8.3% in March, up from 7.9% in February. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase the likelihood of 2 consecutive 50-basis-point Fed rate hikes, pushing US T-bond yields even higher, and vice versa. On Thursday, April 14, 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy decisions. 普遍预计，该行将维持当前的政策设置，但前瞻性指导的鹰派转变可能为EUR/USD的决定性反弹铺平道路，并对美元施加压力。 在这种情况下，XAU/USD 货币对有望上涨。 另一方面，该行可能会变得更加谨慎，侧重于俄乌冲突持续对经济活动的潜在负面影响，而非通胀。 在这种情况下，EUR/USD 可能面临看跌压力，使得黄金兑美元难以取得进展。

另一方面，油价连续第二周下跌，原因是多个国家宣布释放战略储备。 油价的不确定性还来自于依赖俄罗斯石油的欧洲盟友，他们仍不确定是否以及如何对克里姆林宫实施制裁。 此外，中国没有放松疫情封控措施的情况尤其是在上海，导致油价的下行趋势。 然而，令人不安的是，不知道需要多长时间才能让市场再度担忧供应中断。

Cryptocurrencies

上周，加密货币呈下行趋势，反映了美国股市的走势。 The price of Bitcoin declined by 8% from Monday through to Friday, reflecting a net change of almost $3,500. 

Some major altcoins also followed suit, with Ether and Binance coin losing 9.3% and 5.8%, respectively. 

到周五收盘时，全球最大加密货币的交易价格接近 42,815 美元，回落至周初超过 46,000 美元的高位。 At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading close to $43,135, slightly below its primary resistance level of $43,316 at the 23.6% retracement level. 

尽管比特币已经恢复了上周部分损失，但这资产仍在寻求突破其初始阻力位的动能。 如果加密货币能够反弹，其新的主要阻力位将移至44,012美元。 On the downside, Bitcoin finds initial support at $42,192. 

在其他与加密相关的消息中，Facebook的母公司Meta正在继续探索其自己的数字货币版本，内部称为“Zuck Bucks”，据《金融时报》报道。

该公司放弃了创建全球加密货币的努力——最初称为Libra，后来重新命名为Diem——由于全球监管机构的强烈反对。 Meta的数字货币努力仍处在初始阶段，可能会很容易改变或放弃。 However, its plans to integrate NFTs into its apps are coming closer to fruition. 

美国指数

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上周，股票收于红色，因为交易者权衡了国债收益率的再次上涨以及对美联储未来政策举动的预期。

道琼斯工业平均指数下跌200点，收低0.57%。 Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined by 94 points, equalling a -2% drop. 以科技为主的纳斯达克综合指数承受了最大的打击，下跌832点，最终收低5.5%。

由于美国国债收益率在上周末继续飙升，市场受到了压力。 On Friday 8 April 2022, the benchmark US treasury note climbed to its 3-year high of 2.77%. 更高的国债收益率使纳斯达克综合指数下跌，因为科技股尤其对收益率上升敏感。

对制药行业来说，这是个积极的一周，辉瑞上涨8.56%。 Traders rushed to reliable revenue stream pharmaceuticals as a safe bet against economic and political turmoil, pushing healthcare stocks to record highs last week. 

美联储官员的新评论也是焦点，但看似信号复杂。 James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President shared his thoughts on bringing the Fed Funds rate between 3% – 3.25% by the second half of 2022, implying more aggressive short-term hikes. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, stated that it would be better to move the benchmark rate “closer to a neutral position”. 

本周，交易者将关注一些新财报的发布，其中包含投资银行领域的大企业，如高盛、摩根大通、花旗集团和摩根士丹利。

市场也将发布一些新经济数据，包括最新的美国零售销售数据、初请失业金人数、商业库存和密ichigan大学的每月消费者信心报告。

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