Weekly market report – 11 Apr 2022

Forex

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The US dollar index advanced to $100 for the first time in nearly 2 years, reaching as high as $100.19 – its best level since May 2020. 

美元強勢的主要驅動因素是美國聯邦儲備局的鷹派立場。 The Federal Reserve March meeting minutes on Wednesday, 6 April 2022, resulted in an interest rate hike of 25-bps. 然而，紀要顯示強烈支援快速提升利率，支援市場對美聯儲在即將召開的會議中以50基點間隔提高利率的預期。

在交易週內，歐元大幅下跌，達到 $1.0850 的水平。 這一跌幅的主要原因是歐盟和美國的債券市場之間的利率差異，這持續對歐元造成下行壓力。

然而，這對仍然找不到上漲理由的貨幣對，除了利率差異外，還有許多其他因素使歐元將繼續掙扎。 歐盟幾乎可以肯定會陷入衰退，因為僅僅是能源問題就會造成問題。 Moreover, Germany reduced their economic growth forecast for 2022 from 4.6% to 1.8%, due to geopolitical risks in France with the French presidential election, and the war in Ukraine. 

同時，歐洲央行行長將面臨特別艱難的會議，因為她旨在在抑制通膨與支援疲弱的增長前景之間取得平衡。 This comes at a time when other major central banks are already tightening monetary policies and are prepared to hike interest rates in ever-increasing increments. 

As shown in the chart as well, EUR/USD had a downward trend for the week touching its lowest point on Friday, 8 April 2022, below the $1.085 mark. 然而，這貨幣對顯示出小幅上漲，目前在約 $1.0877 左右，接近其 5 日移動平均線。

During the early session on Friday, 8 April 2022, GBP/USD hit its lowest level since November 2020 at $1.29820, due to the strengthening of the US dollar. 然而，該貨幣對在交易日結束前反彈至 $1.3030 的水平，錄得約 0.6% 的週損失。 本週的價格運動不受英國因素的重大影響。 This is because the upside of GBP is currently being limited by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will turn more dovish in its next meeting. 在即將到來的一周，GBP/USD 交易者將密切關注 UK 消費者物價指數、美國消費者物價指數和美國生產者物價指數的結果，這些指數將於本週二和本週三公佈。

USD/JPY 上週結束於 ¥124.34。 強勁的美國數據和日本政府債券為了保護其 0.25% 的收益目標而帶來的有限上行空間促使該貨幣對上升。 有趣的是，即將到來的地緣政治新聞將如何影響風險情緒和對避險貨幣 JPY 的需求。

Commodities

在這一周的大部分時間裡，黃金與美元的交易未能在任何方向上做出決定性的運動。 儘管美元普遍強勁，且美國國債收益率大幅上升，但黃金在避險資金的流入中仍保持其地位，在每週範圍上部收盤於 $1,940 之上。

Furthermore, gold against the Euro rose by nearly 1.65% this week (based on the difference between Monday’s close and Friday’s close), indicating that the metal was able to capture some of the capital flowing out of the Euro as well.

As per the hourly chart for the week above, gold against the US dollar rose in the first 2 days of the week and surpassed the $1,940 mark only to fall towards the end of the second day, below the $1,925 mark and stay around it. As days passed by, we noticed an upward trend for the same and it ended the week at around the $1,947 mark which is above the 5-day moving average of $1,944 that is acting as the current support level for the week. 

This week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. CPI is expected to rise to a new multi-decade high of 8.3% in March, up from 7.9% in February. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase the likelihood of 2 consecutive 50-basis-point Fed rate hikes, pushing US T-bond yields even higher, and vice versa. On Thursday, April 14, 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy decisions. 該銀行普遍預期將維持其現在的政策設定，但向鷹派前瞻性指導的轉變可能為EUR/USD的決定性回升鋪平道路，加重美元的壓力。 在那種情況下，XAU/USD 貨幣對應該能夠上漲。 另一方面，銀行可能變得更加謹慎，專注於俄烏衝突持久化對經濟活動的潛在負面影響，而不是通脹。 在這種情況下，EUR/USD可能會面臨看跌壓力，進一步使黃金對美元難以取得上漲動力。

另一方面，由於多個國家宣布釋放其戰略儲備，油價已連續第二週下跌。 油市的不確定性還因歐洲盟國過度依賴俄羅斯石油，並仍不確定如何或是否制裁克里姆林宮而加劇。 此外，中國疫情封鎖的擴大，特別是在上海，也對熊市趨勢造成了影響。 不過，目前尚不清楚需要多長時間才能重新出現干擾的擔憂。

Cryptocurrencies

上週，加密貨幣呈下跌趨勢，反映美國股市的變動。 The price of Bitcoin declined by 8% from Monday through to Friday, reflecting a net change of almost $3,500. 

Some major altcoins also followed suit, with Ether and Binance coin losing 9.3% and 5.8%, respectively. 

到週五收盤時，全球最大的加密貨幣交易價格接近 $42,815，從本週早些時候的超過 $46,000 的高點回落。 At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading close to $43,135, slightly below its primary resistance level of $43,316 at the 23.6% retracement level. 

儘管比特幣恢復了部分上週的損失，但這一數字資產仍在尋找衝破其初始阻力位的動力。 如果該加密貨幣能夠反彈，則新的主要阻力位將上升至 $44,012。 On the downside, Bitcoin finds initial support at $42,192. 

在其他與加密貨幣相關的新聞中，Facebook 的母公司 Meta 正在繼續探索其版本的數字貨幣，內部稱為 "Zuck Bucks"，《金融時報》報導。

該公司放棄了建立全球加密貨幣的努力 – 最初被稱為Libra，後來重新命名為Diem – 在全球監管機構的激烈反對後。 Meta 的數字貨幣努力仍處於初期階段，可能會輕易改變或取消。 However, its plans to integrate NFTs into its apps are coming closer to fruition. 

美國指數

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上週股市收盤下跌，交易者在考慮聯邦儲備局下一步政策走向時權衡了又一次的債券收益率上升。

道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌 200 點，收盤下跌 0.57%。 Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined by 94 points, equalling a -2% drop. 以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數跌幅最為驚人，下跌 832 點，最終收於下跌 5.5%。

近期隨著美國國債收益率持續上升，市場陷入困境。 On Friday 8 April 2022, the benchmark US treasury note climbed to its 3-year high of 2.77%. 更高的國債收益率幫助拉低納斯達克綜合指數，因為科技股特別對收益率的上升敏感。

這一周對製藥細分市場來說是正面的，輝瑞藥品上漲 8.56%。 Traders rushed to reliable revenue stream pharmaceuticals as a safe bet against economic and political turmoil, pushing healthcare stocks to record highs last week. 

美國聯邦儲備官員的最新評論也引起關注，但似乎傳遞了混合信號。 James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President shared his thoughts on bringing the Fed Funds rate between 3% – 3.25% by the second half of 2022, implying more aggressive short-term hikes. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, stated that it would be better to move the benchmark rate “closer to a neutral position”. 

本週，交易者將關注一些最新的財報，華爾街投資銀行大名單中，高盛、摩根大通、花旗集團和摩根士丹利等企業將出現在名單上。

市場也將發布最新的經濟數據，包括最新的美國零售銷售數據、初請失業金人數、企業庫存和密ichigan 大學每月消費者信心報告。

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