Weekly market report – 18 Apr 2022

Forex

EUR/USD 货币对连续第二周暴跌，触及 1.0758 美元的新两年低点，然后在稍高于 1.0800 美元的位置收盘。 主要的看跌催化剂是欧洲中央银行主席克里斯汀·拉加德宣布将不调整货币政策。 On the other hand, US Federal Reserve officials continue to expect a 50 bps hike in May 2022, paving the way for a balance-sheet reduction. 因此，两家中央银行之间的不平衡几乎肯定将继续影响 EUR/USD。

Meanwhile, GBP/USD recovered earlier in the week after falling to its lowest level since November 2020 – $1.2974. 尽管广泛的美元强势阻止了 GBP/USD 在本周后半部分进一步获得看涨动能，但该货币对周末以 1.3050 美元以上结束，终结了两周的下跌趋势。

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the annual inflation in the United States jumped to a new four-decade high of 8.5% in March, comparing to 7.9% in February, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 根据报告的补充细节，剔除波动性食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 在同期从 6.4% 增加到 6.5%，而市场预期为 6.6%。 Although the initial market reaction to the US inflation report weakened the US dollar, hawkish Fed commentary triggered a rally in US T-bond yields late on Tuesday, 12 April 2022.

Whereas in the UK, the annual CPI rose from 6.2% in February to 7% in March, exceeding analysts' expectations of 6.7%. Despite the hot UK inflation data, GBP/USD struggled to gain traction until the US dollar came under heavy selling pressure amid falling US yields during the US trading hours on Wednesday, 13 April 2022.

GBP/USD extended its recovery to a new nine-day high of $1.3150 in the early European session on Thursday, 14 April 2022, after rising more than 100 pips on Wednesday, 13 April 2022. 然而，由于欧洲中央银行 (ECB) 维持政策设置，美元重新获得强势，迫使 GBP/USD 下跌。

As per the hourly chart for the week seen above, GBP/USD had been moving around $1.300 (the psychological mark). However, due to heavy selling of the US dollar on Wednesday, 13 April 2022, the pair picked up and stayed alongside but could not sustain itself further. As of Thursday, 14 April 2022, the pair ended at around $1.3071 above the 50% retracement level near the $1.306 mark. 如果该货币对继续找到动能，则下一个阻力位将在 61.8% 回撤位，约为 1.3081 美元。 But if the pair spirals down, then the next support level would be at the 38.2% retracement level near $1.304. 

The USD/JPY reached a high of ￥126.32 in Friday's holiday-shortened market, capping a 0.41% (close over close) gain for the week. Inflation-boosted US Treasury yields, combined with the risks of a stalled but still dangerous Ukraine war and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) seemingly permanent liquidity policy, have created a near-ideal environment for the greenback against the yen.

在接下来的一周，不会有高水平的数据发布。 然而，焦点将集中在英格兰银行 (BoE) 和美联储上。 在政策收紧方面，BoE 比美国联邦储备银行面临更难的平衡。 虽然两个中央银行都在打击通胀，但在俄乌冲突的背景下，BoE 对增长前景的焦虑越来越加剧。

Commodities

作为避险资产，黄金本周上涨。 由于乌克兰危机和不断上升的通胀，交易者们更倾向于在漫长的复活节周末将资金存放在贵金属上。

Gold's prices rallied for 6 days in a row until the yellow metal eased off on Thursday, 14 April 2022. 在交易者准备美国加息时，美元走强，收益率上升，推动了黄金的动能。 然而，黄金持续上涨，交易周结束时价格高于 1,970 美元。

根据每小时图表，黄金本周开盘价约为 1,948 美元，收盘价约为 1,974 美元。 我们看到本周呈上升趋势，价格结束时刚好超过了约 1,792 美元的 5 日移动平均线。 Even though we see a few spikes on the downside, gold maintained enough traction to post gains for the week.  

尽管市场预期美联储将继续积极加息以对抗有害的价格压力，但黄金仍然以很强的需求作为对抗通胀的避险资产。

在油市中，价格上涨约 10%，该工具在交易周结束时收于 106 美元，因交易者考虑可能对俄罗斯石油进口的欧洲禁令的新闻。

However, on Thursday, 14 April 2022, the trading conditions for the global oil markets were fairly thin ahead of the long weekend in the major North American and European markets due to the tightening global supply. 上周，欧盟采取了应对乌克兰战争的第一步，禁止俄罗斯的能源进口，并同意从今年晚些时候开始完全STP煤炭进口。

Recent news from IEA members on the release of 240M barrels of crude oil reserves over the next 6 months has dampened expectations for a return to last month's $120 levels. Additionally, if the US and Iran reach an agreement on easing sanctions, more than 1M barrels per day in Iranian supply may return to the market.

在接下来的几个月中，市场条件预计将保持紧张，因为全球石油市场正在调整由于对乌克兰的入侵而导致的俄罗斯出口重大干扰。

通过更完善的交易策略并在 DTrader 的金融市场中使用期权和多倍杠杆交易以充分利用这些市场机会。

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin traded on a marginal uptrend during last week, by starting the week at $39,846.47 and trading at $40,273.09 at Sunday’s close, marking a 1.07 % increase. 

在写作时，这种全球最大的加密货币全天交易于 40,277.39 美元，接近其主要阻力位 40,605.51 美元的 38.2% 回撤位。 如果突破该水平，它的主要阻力将转移至 41,007.73 美元的 50% 回撤位。 虽然比特币在本周前半段出现了一些波动，但后半段横盘整理。 然而，自四月初以来，比特币整体上保持了下滑趋势。

Altcoins such as Ethereum, Binance coin and Dash have replicated Bitcoin’s trend, having hit a peak midweek and declining ever since, to finish the week slightly higher than they started on Monday, 11 April 2022. 以太坊、Binance coin 和 Dash 分别上涨了近 0.3%、3.6% 和 4.2%。

在周中，Doge 遇到了‘马斯克效应’，当时新任 Twitter 最大股东埃隆·马斯克督促 Doge 作为 Twitter Blue 的支付选项之一，从而导致 Doge 在周中上涨了 8%。

总体而言，自本月初以来，加密货币一直在下滑。 然而，交易者的情绪认为趋势即将反转。

在上周，加密货币成为热门话题，多家 cryptocurrency 公司的领导人表示，监管机构开始对数字货币持积极态度。 例如，英国政府宣布将推出稳定币，以跟踪现有货币的价格。 此外，美国总统签署了一项行政命令，倡导各国政府之间在数字资产方面的协调。

In other crypto-related news, the Wikipedia community, on Tuesday, 12 April 2022, voted against all cryptocurrency donations to the platform, owing to its environmental impact. Also, in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, 14 April 2022, the Amazon CEO said that the e-commerce giant does not have plans to add cryptocurrency as a payment option soon.

美国指数

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由于复活节的原因，这一周的交易相对较短，市场关闭了。 All the major US stock indices closed lower on Thursday, 14 April 2022, capping off a losing week as traders took in a mixed set of earnings reports and rising inflation figures.

道琼斯工业平均指数在短暂的交易周中上涨了 0.42%，收于 34,541 点。 Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at 4,394, ending the week down by 0.45%. 以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数本周下跌 0.7%，收于 13,893 点。

由于新的通胀数据对交易者的思维产生了影响，股市上周回落。 On Tuesday, 12 April 2022, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an 8.5% increase for the month.

供应商价格也超过了预期。 The Purchasing Price Index (PPI), which measures prices paid by wholesale suppliers, gained 11.2% from a year ago, marking its hottest yearly increase since November 2010. Meanwhile, Jobless Claims rose to 185,000 for the week ending on 9 April 2022. 

当交易者评估上周不断上升的通胀压力时，国债收益率飙升至多年高位。 On Thursday, 14 April 2022, the benchmark 10-year note climbed by 13-basis points to reach above 2.8%. 

由于通胀恐慌和债券收益率上升，上周晚些时候科技股回落，交易者优先选择稳定资产而非高风险成长股。 本周，微软下跌6.8％，谷歌下跌6.5％，Apple下跌3.7％。 

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