Weekly market report – 18 Apr 2022

Forex

EUR/USD 兩周連續暴跌，創下新的兩年低點 1.0758 美元，隨後回升至大約 1.0800 美元。 主要的看跌因素是歐洲中央銀行宣布行長克里斯丁·拉加德不會調整其貨幣政策。 On the other hand, US Federal Reserve officials continue to expect a 50 bps hike in May 2022, paving the way for a balance-sheet reduction. 因此，兩家中央銀行之間的失衡幾乎肯定會繼續對 EUR/USD 施加壓力。

Meanwhile, GBP/USD recovered earlier in the week after falling to its lowest level since November 2020 – $1.2974. 儘管美國美元的全面強勢阻止了GBP/USD在本週下半段進一步取得看漲動能，但該貨幣對以1.3050美元以上收官，結束了連續兩週的下跌。

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the annual inflation in the United States jumped to a new four-decade high of 8.5% in March, comparing to 7.9% in February, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 根據報告的附加細節，核心CPI（不包含波動大的食品和能源價格）在同一時期從6.4%增至6.5%，而市場預期為6.6%。 Although the initial market reaction to the US inflation report weakened the US dollar, hawkish Fed commentary triggered a rally in US T-bond yields late on Tuesday, 12 April 2022.

而在英國，年CPI從二月的6.2%上升至三月的7%，超過分析師預期的6.7%。 儘管英國的通脹數據火熱，GBP/USD也難以取得動能，直到美元在美國交易時段於2022年4月13日星期三面臨大量拋售壓力。

GBP/USD extended its recovery to a new nine-day high of $1.3150 in the early European session on Thursday, 14 April 2022, after rising more than 100 pips on Wednesday, 13 April 2022. However, with the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining its policy settings, the greenback regained its strength, forcing the GBP/USD to fall.

As per the hourly chart for the week seen above, GBP/USD had been moving around $1.300 (the psychological mark). However, due to heavy selling of the US dollar on Wednesday, 13 April 2022, the pair picked up and stayed alongside but could not sustain itself further. As of Thursday, 14 April 2022, the pair ended at around $1.3071 above the 50% retracement level near the $1.306 mark. 如果該組合繼續找到其動力，則下一個阻力位將在約1.3081美元的61.8%回撤水平。 But if the pair spirals down, then the next support level would be at the 38.2% retracement level near $1.304. 

The USD/JPY reached a high of ￥126.32 in Friday's holiday-shortened market, capping a 0.41% (close over close) gain for the week. Inflation-boosted US Treasury yields, combined with the risks of a stalled but still dangerous Ukraine war and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) seemingly permanent liquidity policy, have created a near-ideal environment for the greenback against the yen.

在未來一周，將不會有高層數據發布。 However, the focus will be on the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. 在政策收緊方面，英格蘭銀行面臨的平衡任務比美國聯邦儲備系統更為艱難。 兩家中央銀行均在與通脹展開鬥爭，但在持久的俄烏衝突背景下，英格蘭銀行對經濟增長前景的焦慮日益加深。

Commodities

避險資產黃金本周取得上漲。 由於烏克蘭危機和不斷上升的通脹，交易者在長假期期間寧願選擇珍貴的金屬來安置資金。

Gold's prices rallied for 6 days in a row until the yellow metal eased off on Thursday, 14 April 2022. 這一勢頭是在美元走強，收益率上升之後，交易者為美國加息做準備。 However, the bullion kept on track for its weekly gain and ended the trading week above the $1,970 level.

As per the hourly chart, gold started the week at around $1,948 and ended at around the $1,974 mark. We see an upward trend for the week, with the price ending just above the 5-day moving average at around $1,792. 儘管我們看到一些下跌的尖峰，但黃金仍然保持足夠的牽引力，讓本周取得收益。

Gold still maintains a strong and strengthening demand as a hedge against inflation despite the expectation that the Fed will continue to raise rates aggressively to combat detrimental price pressures through the end of 2022 and beyond.

在油市中，價格上漲約10%，在交易者評估對俄羅斯石油出口的可能歐洲禁令時，該工具在106美元附近收盤。

However, on Thursday, 14 April 2022, the trading conditions for the global oil markets were fairly thin ahead of the long weekend in the major North American and European markets due to the tightening global supply. 上週，歐盟透過禁止俄羅斯能源進口採取了第一步來應對烏克蘭的戰爭，並同意從今年晚些時候開始完全停止進口煤炭。

Recent news from IEA members on the release of 240M barrels of crude oil reserves over the next 6 months has dampened expectations for a return to last month's $120 levels. Additionally, if the US and Iran reach an agreement on easing sanctions, more than 1M barrels per day in Iranian supply may return to the market.

在未來幾個月，隨著全球油市因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而產生的制裁而面臨重大擾動調整，市場條件預計將保持緊張。

透過銳利化您的交易策略，並在 DTrader上使用期權和倍數在金融市場進行交易，充分利用這些市場機會。

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin traded on a marginal uptrend during last week, by starting the week at $39,846.47 and trading at $40,273.09 at Sunday’s close, marking a 1.07 % increase. 

在寫作時，全球最大的加密貨幣交易價格為40,277.39美元，接近38.2%回撤水平的主要阻力位40,605.51美元。 如果突破該水平，主要阻力將轉移至50%回撤位41,007.73美元。 雖然比特幣在週初出現了些許波動，但週後期呈現橫盤交易。 然而，自四月初以來，比特幣整體仍呈現下降趨勢。

Altcoins such as Ethereum, Binance coin and Dash have replicated Bitcoin’s trend, having hit a peak midweek and declining ever since, to finish the week slightly higher than they started on Monday, 11 April 2022. 以太坊、Binance coin和Doge分別增長了近0.3%、3.6%和4.2%。

當Elon Musk，即Twitter的最大股東，呼籲將Doge作為Twitter Blue的一種支付方式時，Doge經歷了「馬斯克效應」，促使其在週中上漲了8%。

一般來說，自本月初以來，加密貨幣一直在下降。 然而，交易者的情緒是趨勢的逆轉迫在眉睫。

在上周，加密貨幣成為熱議話題，主要的加密貨幣公司領導人表示，監管機構開始對數字貨幣持正面看法。 例如，英國政府宣佈將推出穩定幣，以追踪現有貨幣的價格。 此外，美國總統簽署了一項行政命令，支援政府之間在數字資產方面進行協調。

In other crypto-related news, the Wikipedia community, on Tuesday, 12 April 2022, voted against all cryptocurrency donations to the platform, owing to its environmental impact. Also, in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, 14 April 2022, the Amazon CEO said that the e-commerce giant does not have plans to add cryptocurrency as a payment option soon.

美國指數

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這是一個短暫的交易周，因為市場在耶穌受難日當天關閉。 All the major US stock indices closed lower on Thursday, 14 April 2022, capping off a losing week as traders took in a mixed set of earnings reports and rising inflation figures.

道琼斯工业平均指数在短暫的交易周末以34,541收盤，漲幅為0.42%。 Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at 4,394, ending the week down by 0.45%. 以科技股為主的 Nasdaq 100 下跌了 0.7%，本週結束時約為 13,893。

隨著最新的通脹數據影響交易者的思維，股票出現回落。 On Tuesday, 12 April 2022, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an 8.5% increase for the month.

供應商價格也超出預期上漲。 The Purchasing Price Index (PPI), which measures prices paid by wholesale suppliers, gained 11.2% from a year ago, marking its hottest yearly increase since November 2010. Meanwhile, Jobless Claims rose to 185,000 for the week ending on 9 April 2022. 

隨著交易者評估上升的通脹壓力，上周國債收益率攀升至多年來的高點。 On Thursday, 14 April 2022, the benchmark 10-year note climbed by 13-basis points to reach above 2.8%. 

通脹擔憂和不斷上升的債券收益率驅動科技股在上星期遞減，因為交易者優先考慮穩定資產而非高風險的成長股。 本週，微軟下跌 6.8%，谷歌跌 6.5%，Apple跌了 3.7％。 

了解上週金融市場表現的最新資訊以後，可以改進策略並在 Deriv X Financial 帳戶和 Deriv MT5 Financial 和 Financial STP 帳戶交易差價合約。