Weekly market report – 21 Mar 2022

Forex

‍

美元指数 (DXY) 在本周末恢复了一些买盘兴趣，突破了 $98.00 的关口。 经过四天的跌势后，它开始在 $97.73 附近吸引一些买盘。 但对俄罗斯和乌克兰之间地缘政治紧张局势升级的担忧再次加剧，导致风险资产的需求小幅暂停，最终导致 DXY 小幅回调。 尽管如此，美元在三月份仍上涨约 1.5%。 On the technical side, it is currently at around $98.79, well-settled above the moving average based on the six-month chart. Even though there is a bit of a fluctuation in the spikes due to the mentioned reasons above, it maintains its uptrend for now. 

其他货币对的反应如何？

After a strong week, the Euro suffered from some profit-taking, causing EUR/USD to fall back to the mid - $1.10s. 由于市场猜测欧洲中央银行将在年底前启动升息周期，欧元在周末面临一些卖压，并从 $1.1140 区域的近期上涨中回落。

GBP/USD 在英国银行 (BoE) 上调借贷成本后，抹去了一些早期的周损。 It is worth noting that this was the third time the BoE consecutively raised their benchmark rates by a quarter to the percent. 

USD/JPY 继续稳定上涨，达到新的多年来高点——约 ¥119.10 – ¥119.20，周的最后一天上涨。 日本银行在三月会议结束时坚持其鸽派立场，政策设置保持不变。 这反过来又给日元施加了压力，推动该货币对在美元需求增加中走高。

Commodities

上周开始，关于俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突的外交解决方案的希望使风险流动主导了金融市场，使黄金难以找到需求。 Furthermore, on Wednesday, 16 March 2022, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps). 根据修订后的预测总结，决策者预计在年底前将再加息 6 次。 市场对美联储鹰派加息预期的初步反应使黄金跌破 $1,900 的关口。

然而，在本周后半段，风险情绪发生了负面变化。 This change aided gold's recovery as both Russia and Ukraine officials denied reports that they were getting closer to a peace agreement. 

如上面的月度走势图所示，黄金目前的交易价格在 $1,925.75 附近，接近其移动平均线。 The 14-day RSI is just below the 50 level mark at about 49.93, suggesting further selling may be likely. 如果这种势头持续，可能会出现预期的看跌市场趋势。

Since late February, gold's reaction to changes in risk sentiment has been fairly straightforward. 如果本周的发展表明冲突更加升级，黄金应该会反弹并开始收复上周的损失。 另一方面，如果市场对停火保持乐观，贵金属可能会面临新的卖出压力。

On the other hand, Oil prices found a floor above $100 per barrel on Friday, 18 March 2022, following a week of volatile trading. 由于没有简单的替代俄罗斯原油的方案，市场已经面临紧张的供给。

油价和其他俄罗斯出口商品的上涨也引发了通货膨胀的恐慌，因为各国政府在疫情后的增长刺激方面寻求刺激。 上周，美联储加息并表示将继续加息，以跟上价格上涨的步伐。

However,  the recent surge in COVID-19 cases and the fact that closures in China are in place now may threaten the oil demand. 最后，目前核扩散谈判进展缓慢，伊朗向市场提供额外原油的可能性也加剧了油价的波动。

加密货币

美联储期待已久的加息公告使比特币价格保持在 $40,000 以上。 For the first time in 3 years, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 经过几周的低波动后，比特币价格迅速上涨，一天便暴涨 $3,000。

从技术指标来看，在本周开始时，比特币的交易接近 23.6% 回撤位，约 $38,900，随后开始上涨，并在 50% 和 61.8% 的回撤位之间震荡。 根据上面的月度图，它曾短暂穿越 61.8% 的回撤位。 然而，它恢复震荡，直到突破在 $41,500 附近 61.8% 的主要阻力位，并达到在 $42,500 附近的下一个阻力位 76.4%。 撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格在 $42,983.56 附近。

尽管美元飙升，比特币挖矿减少，以及 NFT 兴趣下降，但比特币仍然在约 $40,000 附近徘徊。

Several leading cryptocurrencies rallied more than 10% in the last week, with Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche posting some of the highest gains. 

以市值计算，Avalanche 在上周是前 20 大加密货币中增长最多的。 Avalanche 暴涨近 30%，达到 $90 的关口。 While it's 37.5% off its former all-time high of $146.22, set 4 months ago, this is by far the biggest rise for a leading cryptocurrency in the last 7 days. 

Both Solana and Cardano, 2 other smart contract giants, rose by more than 11% and 12%, respectively.

美国指数

美国主要市场指数上周上涨约 5.50% 至 10.50%，恢复了前两周所有失去的地面。 多个因素支撑了市场，包括油价下跌、俄罗斯避免违约的消息以及美联储货币政策会议的结果。 尽管乌克兰的紧张局势继续，但本周市场情绪通过持续的结束冲突谈判得以维持。 主要指数普遍上涨，纳斯达克 100 指数领涨。

‍

另一方面，在高通胀的上升利率环境中，政府债券价格下跌，使得收益率连续第二周大幅上升。 The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose to around 2.15% on Friday, 18 March 2022, the highest level in nearly 3 years.

The Federal Reserve of the United States raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, following market expectations to raise its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%. Policymakers have indicated that they intend to raise interest rates at each of their 6 remaining policy meetings through the end of 2022.

Trade the financial markets with options and multipliers on Deriv Trader or CFDs on Deriv X Financial account and Deriv MT5 Financial and Financial STP accounts.