The hard asset question for 2026: Why Platinum is in focus

Hard assets are no longer behaving like a niche hedge. In 2025, gold pushed decisively into record territory, silver surged nearly 150%, and platinum rose more than 120% - a scale of movement that signals something deeper than a short-lived flight to safety, according to analysts. At the same time, traditional defensive assets such as the US dollar and long-dated Treasuries have struggled to perform when geopolitical risk flares.

As investors look beyond the initial rush into gold and silver, attention is shifting toward what comes next. With supply constraints tightening, strategic classifications changing, and geopolitics increasingly shaping commodity markets, platinum is emerging as a serious question for 2026 rather than a forgotten footnote.

What’s driving the hard-asset shift?

The renewed US–Europe standoff over Greenland has reinforced demand for precious metals, but it did not create it. Gold and silver were already rallying before geopolitical tensions resurfaced, driven by rising concerns over fiscal discipline, monetary credibility, and institutional reliability in the United States. Long-end Treasury yields climbing during risk events have become a recurring signal that confidence, not growth, is being questioned.

This environment has exposed a critical vulnerability in portfolio construction. Assets that depend on government promises - currencies and sovereign bonds - are no longer providing consistent protection when uncertainty rises. As a result, capital has flowed toward assets that lie entirely outside the financial system. Gold benefits first in these moments, but history shows that once the hard-asset theme takes hold, it tends to broaden.

Why it matters

What distinguishes this cycle from previous risk episodes is the erosion of trust in traditional safe havens, according to analysts. The dollar and the yen have struggled to attract the defensive flows they once did, while US Treasuries have reacted to geopolitical stress with higher yields rather than lower ones.

 Markets appear increasingly sensitive to the scale of US deficits and the perception that monetary policy could face political pressure in the coming years.

Analysts have begun to frame the move into hard assets as structural rather than tactical. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank has argued that metals are now responding to “system-level doubt rather than headline-driven fear”. In that context, diversification within the hard-asset space becomes as important as initial exposure, which helps explain why attention is expanding beyond gold.

Impact on the metals market

Gold remains the anchor, according to analysts, but silver’s outsized rally has started to raise questions. At current levels, silver risks triggering a collapse in industrial demand, particularly in price-sensitive sectors. That does not invalidate the bullish case, but it does complicate it, encouraging investors to reassess relative value within precious metals rather than adding indiscriminately.

Platinum stands out in this reassessment. Despite its strong performance in 2025, it remains well below its historical highs and has lagged gold over the past several years. More importantly, its supply-and-demand dynamics look increasingly fragile. Unlike gold, platinum is both an investment asset and a critical industrial input, making it more sensitive to shifts in manufacturing, regulation, and geopolitics.

Platinum’s supply constraints and industrial reality

Roughly 42% of platinum demand still comes from the automotive sector, where it is used in catalytic converters. For years, expectations of rapid electric vehicle adoption weighed heavily on prices. Those assumptions are now being revised. TD Securities expects internal combustion engine demand, especially in the US, to remain more resilient than previously forecast, offering continued support for platinum and palladium.

At the same time, supply is tightening. The World Platinum Investment Council reported that above-ground inventories now cover only about 5 months of demand, after 3 consecutive years of deficits. 

Limited investment in new mining projects has capped production growth, leaving the market exposed to shocks. According to Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP, the sector faces “persistent structural deficits” rather than temporary imbalances.

Geopolitics, critical metals, and strategic stockpiling

Platinum’s outlook has also been reshaped by politics. In November 2025, the US Geological Survey classified platinum and palladium as critical metals, elevating their strategic importance. That designation has intensified discussions around supply security, trade policy, and inventory management at both corporate and state levels.

The possibility of US tariffs under an ongoing Section 232 investigation, even if delayed, has reinforced a shift toward “just-in-case” stockpiling. In physical markets such as London, this has contributed to an artificial tightness, as material is withheld from circulation. In a world where strategic resources are increasingly treated as national assets, price formation is no longer purely an economic process.

Expert outlook for 2026

Forecasts for platinum in 2026 reflect this tension between opportunity and risk. MKS PAMP sees prices potentially reaching $2,000 per ounce, while TD Securities expects averages closer to $1,800 in the second half of the year. At the more cautious end, BMO Capital Markets projects prices around $1,375, arguing that any oversupply could ease pressure on spot markets.

What unites these views is uncertainty around inventories. WPIC scenarios suggest that continued exchange inflows could deepen deficits, while sustained outflows might even push the market into surplus by 2026. That sensitivity underscores why platinum is increasingly viewed as a strategic question rather than a simple continuation of the gold trade.

Key takeaway

The hard-asset rally is no longer just about gold. It reflects a deeper shift in how investors view risk, trust, and diversification. As silver tests levels that strain industrial demand, platinum is moving into focus as a metal shaped by supply tightness, strategic importance, and geopolitical risk. For 2026, the critical signals to watch will be inventories, trade policy, and whether investor demand expands beyond gold into the broader precious metals complex.

Platinum technical outlook

Platinum remains elevated following a sharp upside acceleration, with price consolidating near recent highs while trading along the upper Bollinger Band. The sustained width of the bands reflects persistently high volatility, even as the pace of the advance has slowed. 

Momentum indicators show a moderation rather than a reversal, with the RSI dipping back toward the midline after previously reaching stretched levels. From a structural perspective, the broader move remains intact above the $2,200 area, while earlier breakout zones near $1,650 and $1,500 sit well below current prices, underscoring the magnitude of the recent advance. Overall, current price action reflects a pause near highs within a still-elevated volatility regime.