Market news – Week 1, October 2022

上週，利率上升、貨幣和債券市場的極端波動，以及對衰退的擔憂，加劇了最近困擾交易者的不確定性。

Forex

EUR/USD 交易對上週初表現不佳，跌至略低於 $0.9540，然後在週中回升，實現顯著增長。 它在週末時收於約 $0.9800。

上漲的能源價格促使歐洲通脹再次飆升，歐元區宣布其主要通脹指數在九月份年增率達到10%，高於八月份的9.1%。

A possible concern of the European Central Bank (ECB) is that an increase in borrowing rates in Europe might harm debt-ridden nations. However, the ECB is expected to raise its main refinancing rate on Thursday, 27 October, with a 0.75% increase to keep up with the US central bank.

EUR/USD 可能對美國通脹統計數據作出反應，這表明消費者價格仍然高企。 美國的消費支出數據也有所增加，這表明即使在通脹上升的情況下，美國民眾仍然在購買。

到本週末，GBP/USD 也逆轉了趨勢，從週初的 $1.068 飆升至約 $1.168。

英國政府降低稅收的目標同時促進經濟增長的計劃未能成功。 After markets deemed the government's new economic policy unsuitable, the Bank of England (BOE) was compelled to interfere.The BOE indicated that it would temporarily purchase long-term UK government bonds (gilts) to restore market functioning. 這一即時反應提升了英鎊。

This week, S&P Global will publish the final September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index estimates for the EU and the US. 歐盟將發布其各自的 8 月零售銷售數據，而美國將透過發布 9 月非農業薪酬報告來結束本週。 預計該國本月取得了 250 萬個新工作崗位，而失業率預計將維持在 3.7％ 不變。

由於本週英國沒有重大數據發布，交易者將密切關注英國的政治頭條和國債市場的動向。

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Commodities

上週金價呈上升趨勢，週初報價為 $1,643，週末結束時約為 $1,663。 XAU/USD 的增長歸因於全球債券利率的下降。

英國央行宣布暫時購買長期政府債券，導致 10 年期美國 T 型債券收益率下降 5% 超過 5%，因此英國 10 年期黃金收益率下降 10%，使逆相關黃金取得正向動力。

本週，市場參與者將密切關注全球債券市場。 英國國債市場似乎在英格蘭銀行的干預後穩定下來。 但如果英國政府未能解決經濟陷入不可持續的債務路徑的擔憂，交易者可能會迅速失去信心。

On the US side, non-farm payrolls (NFP) are due this week, and traders may perceive weaker-than-expected NFP growth as an excuse to sell the US dollar, opening the door for positive activity in XAU/USD ahead of the weekend. 另一方面，如果 NFP 的增長快於預期，交易者可能會提升美元的多頭頭寸。

Meanwhile, oil was on track for its first weekly increase in 5 weeks as traders anticipate this week's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) meeting, which might result in a production cutback plan to compensate for a weakening global economy.

專家預計產量將減少，因為利率上升和全球經濟衰退的擔憂對油價造成影響。

Cryptocurrencies

在過去的一週，加密貨幣的價值保持相對穩定，主要代幣報告出現小幅增長和損失。

As of Sunday, 2 October 2022, Bitcoin was trading around $19,230 after reaching its high on Friday, surpassing the $20,000 mark. 而以太坊的價格則約為 $1,300。

上週的重點是埃隆·馬斯克的短信，在他的證詞之前被披露。 In these texts he suggested transferring Twitter (TWTR) to the blockchain, paying for it, integrating Dogecoin, and partnering with Sam Bankman-Fried of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, who was eager to throw $5 billion into the Twitter offer.

In other news, a funding round of $80 million has been raised by Bitcoin payments company Strike. Strike 計劃推出新產品並建立合作夥伴關係，以擴大其客戶基礎，包括大型金融機構和企業。

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美國股市

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Stocks fell for the third week in a row due to turmoil in the UK financial markets and signals that the Federal Reserve (Fed) still has a long way to go in its attempts to contain inflation.

儘管美聯儲努力控制通脹，但美聯儲用於測量價格變動的月度通脹指數增長呈現快於預期。

According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, consumer prices grew by 4.9% year on year (YoY) in August, up from 4.7% in the previous month.

In other news, Nike's earnings fell by 12.8% on Friday, 30 September 2022, after reporting a massive inventory growth (+44% YoY) in fiscal quarter 1 and warned of sustained gross margin pressure in fiscal quarter 2.

Energy (+1.8%) was the only sector to complete the week with a gain.

The monthly US labour market data for September is coming out this week on Friday, 7 October 2022. 經濟在八月份新增了 315,000 個新工作崗位，低於七月份的 526,000 個，而失業率從 3.5% 增至 3.7%。

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