USD/JPY 接近 160,油價衝擊令 BOJ 陷入困境

By 10 April, markets were pricing in around a 60% probability of a rate hike at the April meeting, before the latest escalation in the Hormuz crisis. The BOJ kept its policy rate at 0.75% at its March meeting in an 8–1 vote, while an earlier meeting had already seen one board member call for a move to 1.0%. A former BOJ board member has also said he sees an April rate increase as the more likely outcome.

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Japan imports the vast majority of its energy needs, making it highly sensitive to oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Recent data showed import prices and wholesale inflation rising faster than expected, reflecting higher energy costs. Higher oil prices linked to the Hormuz crisis are likely to intensify those cost pressures. The yen is caught between two forces: pressure from a stronger, safe‑haven dollar and the prospect that the BOJ may need to tighten policy in response to rising inflation.

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The 160 level is widely viewed by traders as an area where the risk of yen‑supporting intervention rises, reflecting past episodes of weakness that drew a response from Japanese authorities. As USD/JPY approaches that zone, the perceived probability of intervention increases and is factored into positioning by some market participants. Senior officials have also warned about excessive currency volatility and signalled that BOJ policy could be used, if needed, to help support the yen.

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BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino has stated that Japan is not currently in stagflation, noting that inflation is close to the 2% target and growth has not yet stalled. However, he warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict pushing inflation higher while weighing on activity ‘would pose a dilemma and difficult problem.’ Recent data also show a noticeable deterioration in consumer confidence, reflecting the strain that higher fuel costs are putting on households.

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Even if the BOJ raises its policy rate to 1%, the yield differential between Japan and the US would remain wide by historical standards. Strategists at major global banks have argued that persistent yield gaps, negative real rates in Japan, and structural capital outflows could keep the yen under pressure even as the BOJ tightens. A gradual normalisation path is therefore unlikely to close the gap quickly enough to fundamentally change carry trade dynamics.

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