Why Nvidia is a barometer for an AI bubble

Many consider Nvidia to have become the market’s most reliable signal for whether the artificial intelligence boom is grounded in reality or drifting towards excess. As the dominant supplier of chips powering large language models and data centres, its revenues reflect actual AI spending rather than speculative intent. When confidence in Nvidia wavers, it typically signals that investors are questioning the sustainability of the broader AI market.

That scrutiny is growing. After three years of relentless AI investment following ChatGPT’s launch, the sector now faces slowing growth expectations, ballooning capital costs, and tougher questions around monetisation. 

With the Nasdaq 100 trading near 26 times forward earnings, far below dot-com extremes but well above long-term averages, Nvidia sits at the centre of a debate that could shape markets well into 2026 based on recent reports.

What’s driving Nvidia’s role in the AI cycle?

Nvidia matters because it sells the infrastructure that enables AI. Training and running advanced models still depend heavily on its GPUs, making the company a direct beneficiary of data-centre expansion across the US, Europe, and Asia. Unlike software firms pitching future use cases, Nvidia’s order flow shows whether AI demand is translating into physical investment.

That position also makes the stock highly sensitive to any slowdown in spending, according to analysts. When hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon signal caution on capital expenditure, or when projects are delayed due to power constraints or financing pressures, Nvidia is often the first major name to react. Its share price has increasingly behaved like a real-time referendum on whether the AI buildout is accelerating or plateauing.

Concerns have also emerged around how that demand is funded. Nvidia has committed substantial sums to supporting customers and partners as part of broader ecosystem investments, prompting debate over whether certain parts of the AI supply chain are relying on circular financing. While not inherently negative, it adds complexity at a stage when investors want clarity on organic demand rather than financial engineering.

Why it matters

Market watchers noted Nvidia’s influence extends far beyond its own balance sheet. The stock has become a proxy for the health of the entire AI ecosystem, encompassing cloud providers, chipmakers, utilities, and data center builders. When Nvidia rallies, it reinforces confidence that AI investment is productive. When it falters, it raises doubts about whether capital is being deployed faster than returns can justify.

That dynamic matters because AI exposure has become crowded. Data revealed that a large share of the S&P 500’s gains over the past three years has been driven by a narrow group of technology leaders and their suppliers. As one portfolio manager recently put it, stocks like Nvidia do not struggle when growth slows slightly - they struggle when growth stops accelerating. In that environment, even small disappointments can trigger sharp repositioning.

Impact on the AI infrastructure market

Recent moves in AI-linked stocks underline this sensitivity. Oracle’s shares dropped sharply after the company reported higher-than-expected capital spending and softer cloud growth, highlighting the tension between aggressive data-centre investment and near-term profitability. 

Although Oracle insisted its expansion plans remain intact, the market reaction rippled through the AI supply chain, including Nvidia.

Analysts expressed that the episode reinforced a key risk facing the sector: AI infrastructure is colliding with real-world constraints. Building data centres requires vast amounts of capital, electricity, skilled labour, and time. Delays or cost overruns may not derail the long-term AI thesis, but they do compress margins and extend payback periods - precisely the outcomes investors fear at this stage of the cycle.

Geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty. Nvidia remains exposed to export controls and shifting China policy, which can affect revenue visibility even as global AI demand grows. That headline risk does not undermine the technology’s importance, but it does cap how much optimism markets are willing to price in.

Expert outlook

Most analysts do not expect an abrupt collapse similar to the dot-com bust. Today’s AI leaders are larger, more profitable, and better capitalised than their late-1990s counterparts. Instead, the more plausible outcome is a rotation within the AI trade, where investors favour companies with clear cash generation and scale, while reassessing richly valued names that rely on flawless execution.

For Nvidia, the next phase hinges on execution rather than hype. Markets will watch to see whether hyperscalers maintain their capital spending as depreciation costs rise, whether demand broadens beyond a handful of dominant buyers, and whether AI revenue growth can absorb the scale of infrastructure investment underway. If Nvidia continues to deliver against those tests, it may deflate bubble fears. If not, its share price is likely to reflect a market recalibrating expectations rather than abandoning AI altogether.

Key takeaway

Nvidia has become the market’s clearest gauge of whether the AI boom is sustainable or stretched. Its position at the heart of AI infrastructure means it reflects real investment decisions, not just optimism. While fears of an outright bubble may be premature, the era of unquestioned enthusiasm is fading. The next signals will come from spending discipline, execution, and whether AI can turn scale into durable profits, according to experts.

Nvidia technical insights

At the start of writing, NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading near $176, hovering just above the critical $175.00 support level. This zone is key for short-term direction - a sustained break below it could trigger sell liquidations and expose the downside, while holding above it keeps the door open for a stabilisation phase. 

On the upside, NVDA faces layered resistance at $196.00 and $207.40, both areas where traders typically expect profit-taking or renewed buying attempts if momentum improves. Price action reflects ongoing consolidation after a sharp pullback from recent highs. Candles remain compressed, signalling hesitation as the market weighs whether the broader correction has run its course or has further to go.

The RSI, currently around 63, is rising slowly near the midline, suggesting modest momentum recovery rather than a strong bullish reversal. This suggests a market still seeking conviction, with NVDA likely to remain range-bound unless buyers can convincingly reclaim the $196 resistance zone.