Apple stock performance looks bruised but not broken yet

Apple isn’t used to being the odd one out - especially not in tech’s elite circle. But while the rest of the “Magnificent Seven” have been enjoying a decent run lately, Apple’s shares have quietly slipped into the red. Down over 20% so far this year and trailing its peers in May, the world’s most valuable brand suddenly looks a little less invincible.

What’s behind the dip? A mix of politics, production headaches, and some pointed words from Donald Trump, who’s now threatening a 25% tariff on iPhones not made in the United States. For a company that’s spent years building a finely tuned global supply chain, it’s a curveball - and one that’s already spooked markets.

But before writing off Apple as past its peak, it’s worth digging a little deeper. Is this really a sign of trouble in Cupertino - or just a short-term bruise on an otherwise solid business?

Apple tariff threats and the Trump effect

It all kicked off (again) with a post on Truth Social. Donald Trump publicly reminded Apple CEO Tim Cook that he expects iPhones sold in the US to be made in the US. Not in India. Not in China. Not anywhere else. If not, Apple should expect to pay “at least" a 25% tariff. Not exactly subtle.

For a company that doesn’t currently produce iPhones on American soil, that’s a major headache. Apple has already been shifting some of its manufacturing away from China to places like India and Vietnam - partly to diversify and partly to dodge earlier tariffs. But clearly, that’s not enough to keep the president happy.

Markets weren’t thrilled either. Apple’s stock fell over 3% following the remarks, marking its eighth consecutive day of losses. 

While a tariff might sound like a punchy headline, it’s more than just talk. Apple’s supply chain isn’t something you can uproot overnight. Analysts say a full move to US manufacturing could take five to ten years - and push the price of an iPhone to around $3,500. That’s a hard sell.

Short-term pain, long-term confidence?

Despite the political noise, analysts aren’t jumping ship. In fact, many are staying calm. Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson compares it to turbulence on a flight, uncomfortable in the moment, but not a reason to abandon the journey.

Why the optimism? Because Apple’s business isn’t built on short-term headlines. It’s built on a famously sticky ecosystem. Once you’ve got an iPhone, it’s surprisingly easy to end up with a MacBook, AirPods, and an Apple Watch - not to mention a growing list of services. That kind of customer loyalty is hard to shake, even with the threat of tariffs.

If tariffs are applied to Apple, they’re likely to hit Samsung and other global smartphone makers, too. That levels the playing field and makes Apple no worse off competitively. Still, depending on how much of the cost Apple absorbs and how much gets passed to consumers or suppliers, it could dent earnings in the near term.

So, is Apple still a buy?

Here’s where it gets interesting. Apple’s stock is trading at around 26 times forward earnings - a bit cheaper than some of its Magnificent Seven siblings like Nvidia or Microsoft. However, it is also expected to grow slower. Its three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is pegged at just over 9%.

But slower growth doesn’t mean no growth. Apple is still wildly profitable, with strong cash flow and one of the most iconic brands in the world. And while the headlines have been dramatic, most analysts agree this isn’t a structural crisis, it’s more of a political tiff, wrapped in some market nerves.

The real issue may not be the tariffs themselves, but the shifting tone between Trump and Cook. In his first term, the two had a relatively cosy relationship. Now? Not so much. That could make negotiations harder if Trump wins a second term and turns his tariff talk into action.

Technical outlook: 

Apple might be bruised, but according to analysts, it’s far from broken. The tariff threats are real, and the stock performance has been undeniably soft, but the fundamentals remain strong. This is a company with deep pockets, a loyal customer base, and a product lineup that keeps people coming back.

So, is it time to panic? Probably not. Is it time to watch closely? Absolutely. Because whether or not Apple moves its manufacturing to the US, one thing is clear: the political pressure isn’t going away. And neither, it seems, is Apple.

At the time of writing, Apple is showing signs of a bounce within a sell zone. The volume bars show that buy pressure is strengthening - adding to the bullish narrative. Should we see a bounce, prices could find resistance at the $212.40 and $223.35 price levels. If we see a slump, prices could find a support floor at the $192.96 support level.

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