How high can Nvidia’s stock price climb as markets rally?

The S&P 500 is edging closer to a record high, with markets buoyed by cooling geopolitical tensions and a wait-and-see Fed. Among the tech names riding the wave is Nvidia - not exactly leading the charge, but certainly making noise.

After a turbulent few months, the AI chipmaker’s shares have bounced back more than 9% since its May earnings, comfortably outpacing the broader market.

 With momentum building, the big question now is: how much further can it climb?

From US-China chip war fears to investor favourite

Earlier this year, Nvidia looked like it might become collateral damage in the growing tech standoff between the US and China. A ban on sales of its advanced H20 chips to China hit hard, costing the company $2.5 billion in Q1 alone and setting it up for a potential $8 billion dent in Q2. 

That, combined with fresh competition from Chinese AI challengers like Huawei and DeepSeek, sent shares tumbling to just over $94 in April, their lowest level in over a year.

But the May earnings report changed the mood. Nvidia beat Wall Street’s expectations and gave the market something it hadn’t seen in weeks - a reason to feel optimistic. 

Suddenly, the story wasn’t about lost sales, but global expansion and resilience in the face of headwinds.

Nvidia global expansion deals and AI momentum

Part of Nvidia’s recent momentum stems from its growing footprint outside China. In May, the company struck major deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips. Those agreements helped to offset the damage from China and hinted at a broader geopolitical shift - if one door closes, another opens in the Gulf.

Add to that the ongoing AI buildout in the West, and Nvidia has found itself in a sweet spot. Many still see it as the backbone of the AI revolution, powering data centres, startups, and even government-backed projects.

S&P 500 record high incoming?

It’s not just Nvidia doing well. The S&P 500 is now less than 1% below its record high, lifted by investor relief over a ceasefire in the Middle East and signs that the Federal Reserve isn’t in a hurry to raise rates again. Financials and tech stocks are leading the way, while energy names lag due to falling oil prices.

In this environment, Nvidia is doing what strong stocks tend to do - catching the tailwind. It may not be dragging the market upwards single-handedly, but it’s part of the story investors are currently buying into.

Next stop: Nvidia humanoid robots?

One of the more intriguing parts of Nvidia’s future isn’t about chips at all - it’s about robots. The company is teaming up with Foxconn to deploy humanoid robots at a new factory in Houston. These robots, set to go live by early next year, will help build Nvidia’s next-generation GB300 AI servers.

It’s a futuristic twist, but also a smart move. Nvidia already supplies the platforms that help power humanoid development, so using robots to make its own products feels like a natural and strategic evolution.

Despite the strong run, not everything’s pointing up. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently sold $14.4 million worth of shares as part of a pre-arranged trading plan. Board member Mark Stevens also sold more than $88 million in stock around the same time.

These planned sales aren’t uncommon for executives, especially in a year of massive valuation gains. But they do serve as a reminder: while Nvidia’s prospects look strong, some insiders are taking a bit of profit off the table.

Nvidia technical outlook: How high can it climb?

That depends on a few things. If the AI momentum continues and Nvidia retains its place at the centre of that story, there may well be more upside to come. If the Fed stays on the sidelines and geopolitical tensions don’t flare up again, the S&P 500 could break into new territory — and Nvidia could go along for the ride.

But expectations are already high, and much of the optimism is now priced in. Any sign of slowing AI adoption or further hits to revenue, especially from China, could easily dampen the rally. For now, though, Nvidia’s back in the game. Analysts note that it’s not charging ahead, but it’s climbing steadily, and traders are watching every step.

At the time of writing, the stock price is enjoying a significant uptick past $147.00, around a sell zone, hinting that sellers may join the fray and push prices downwards, leading to a price reversal. However, the volume bars paint a picture of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with bulls currently enjoying an upper hand. Should the bulls continue dominating, prices could find resistance at the $152.70 resistance level. Conversely, if sellers make a comeback, they could find support floors at the $141.87, $129.55, and $115.00. 

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