XRP price outlook: What’s next as ETF momentum clashes with sell-offs?

XRP’s price outlook has become unusually tense as the surge in ETF momentum is now running headfirst into a wave of heavy sell-offs. The token should be rising on the back of multiple U.S. ETF approvals on 21 November - some of which pulled in over $50 million in first-day trading volume, according to market analyst Eric Balchunas- yet XRP instead slipped to 2.18, down from highs of 2.29, amid broader crypto selloffs. This contradiction between structural progress and market pressure is defining the current landscape.

The clash raises a sharp question for investors: does the arrival of regulated ETF flows represent the foundation of a long-term revaluation, or will persistent selling overwhelm sentiment and drag the market toward a deeper reset? XRP now sits at a technical and psychological turning point, and the resolution of this tension will shape its next major move.

What’s driving XRP’s latest shift?

According to reports, XRP’s recent price dynamics are being shaped by two competing narratives. On one side, analysts who have long championed ambitious targets - such as 24HrsCrypto and Black Swan Capitalist founder Versan Aljarrah - continue to argue that XRP’s value is ultimately tied to global settlement demand rather than retail hype. 

Their view is that Bitcoin rises on speculation, while XRP’s long-term upside depends on “utility, settlement demand, and global liquidity needs.” These analysts maintain that patient accumulation and institutional adoption remain central to XRP’s value creation.

That theme collided with a major regulatory development: the formal approval of multiple U.S. XRP ETFs. The NYSE certification of Franklin Templeton’s ETF and the launch of products by Bitwise, 21Shares, and others created a clean, compliant gateway for traditional investors. 

Early inflows reflect genuine interest - Bitwise recorded $22 million in opening-day volume, while Canary Capital’s XRPC product posted $58 million, one of the strongest starts of the year. These products broaden XRP’s potential demand base even though the spot market remains volatile.

Why it matters

Market analysts stated that ETF approvals represent a structural boost for XRP’s long-term credibility. Bitwise described its own ETF debut as a “historic moment,” highlighting that regulated products carry weight with financial advisers and pension managers still cautious about digital assets. These investors often decide months after regulatory approval, suggesting that meaningful inflows may materialise in 2026 as portfolio frameworks adjust. 

But near-term sentiment tells a different story. XRP’s drop below $2 despite the ETF milestone shows how fragile the immediate market environment remains. Glassnode data indicates that 41.5% of the circulating supply is currently at a loss, creating pressure as traders capitulate. 

Whale activity intensified the decline, with over 200 million XRP sold within two days of the ETF news. This divergence between structural gains and short-term weakness is now central to XRP’s outlook.

Impact on markets and investors

From recent reports, Ripple’s institutional strategy adds another dimension to XRP’s trajectory. The company’s $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, rebranded as Ripple Prime, marks the first time a crypto-native company has owned a global, multi-asset prime broker. 

The platform clears $3 trillion annually, and Ripple executives report significant growth since the acquisition. XRP and RLUSD are set to be deployed as collateral for institutional clients, signalling a push to anchor the token within professional trading and settlement infrastructure. 

Watchers consider this shift crucial because prime brokerage acts as the nerve centre of institutional capital flow. Embedding XRP into collateral and settlement channels strengthens liquidity pathways that do not rely on retail enthusiasm. Hidden Road’s rapid expansion suggests demand for compliant digital-asset tooling continues to rise. For investors, this creates the unusual scenario where fundamental plumbing improves even as the short-term chart weakens, a pattern common in transitional market phases.

Expert outlook

Technical analysts describe XRP as approaching a pivotal threshold. Regaining $2.195 would signal stabilisation and could open a path towards $2.6, while losing $2 risks a drop towards $1.5, where long-term investors might attempt to reaccumulate. The once-popular $3.6 target now looks distant unless broader crypto sentiment reverses.

The long-term debate remains polarised. Supporters of the $100 thesis argue that XRP’s future rests on liquidity rails and institutional settlement rather than speculation cycles. Critics maintain that real inflows may not emerge until advisers and regulated funds allocate in earnest - likely in 2026. Macro headwinds and Bitcoin’s direction remain critical: a market-wide rebound could amplify ETF demand, while continued weakness may keep XRP pinned near support.

Key takeaway

Many say, XRP’s outlook is shaped by a clash between ETF-driven optimism and pressure from heavy sell-offs. Analysts have expressed the underlying ecosystem is strengthening through institutional integration; however, the price remains vulnerable as whales distribute and macroeconomic conditions weigh on risk assets. The next major move hinges on whether XRP can reclaim the $2 region, attract sustained ETF inflows, and ride any broader crypto rebound. The balance of these forces will define the trajectory into 2026.

XRP technical insights

At the start of writing, XRP/USD is hovering around $2.1800, trading between key resistance at $2.6480 and strong support at $1.9569. A break below support could trigger sell liquidations, while moves above $2.6480 or $3.0400 may attract profit-taking or fresh buying interest.

The RSI is rising gently from the midline at around 54, signalling a mild recovery in momentum but not yet indicating overbought conditions.